Saturday 9/7/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & MLB games.
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 7 2019 10:30PM
388 Washington -13.5(-110) William Hill vs 387 California double-dime bet
Analysis: Washington has revenge from an outright upset loss at Cal a year ago. QB Jacob Eason actually looked liked an upgrade over Jake Browning in Week 1 and I feel Cal is a play against team this season.
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+EV: CFB 4u: 308 Virginia Tech Hokies -28 -110 (Saturday, September 7th)
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DR. CHUCK FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (401) Kennesaw State at (402) KENT STATE
Date/Time: Sep 7 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: KENT STATE 0.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Might be -1 or even -1.5, but any of that works here....if you don't have lay ANYTHING then it is probably at least a 5% play.
Kent is home and off 2 extra days and played a legit Pac 12 contender in their opener and covered despite an ugly performance against the Herm and Lewis coordinator combo...on defense it was better than expected!
Now they face Kennesaw State and don't even lay HFA...holy hell don't get caught not getting this value!!
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MATT JOSEPHS
Game: (329) TULSA at (330) SAN JOSE STATE
Date/Time: Sep 7 2019 9:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: SAN JOSE STATE 6.5 (-101)
View Analysis
San Jose State -- I isolated this play all the way in the offseason because it's the perfect sandwich to take advantage involving Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane lost a very physical 28-7 game on the road against Michigan State. Tulsa had a whopping -73 net rushing yards and 153 pass yards in the loss. Their defense wasn't terrible, but a lot of that was because of the milquetoast playcalling of Sparty. Tulsa has got a massive game next week at home against in-state rival Oklahoma State. It's their first home game of the season and they don't get the Cowboys at home very often. In between these two games is a west coast road trip to play San Jose State. The Golden Hurricane have lost 13 straight road games and have been a road favorite just six times since Philip Montgomery has taken over with a record of 3-3 against the spread.
San Jose State is coming off a 35-18 home win over Northern Colorado. Josh Love accounted for three touchdowns in the win and he's a pretty good quarterback. On defense Ethan Aguayo had 20 tackles and a sack. There's some confidence on this sideline as they lost their FCS game last year to UC Davis. The last three years San Jose State is 6-4-1 against the spread as a home underdog. They return 13 starters and had a few close losses at home. The last time these two played was back in 2016 when Tulsa won 45-10. I just think this is an awful spot for the Golden Hurricane and like the home team to cover this one with the small chance of an outright win.
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THE PREZ
Game: (317) SYRACUSE at (318) MARYLAND
Date/Time: Sep 7 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: SYRACUSE -1.0 (-108)
View Analysis
Play on Syracuse -1 (play good to Syracuse -3)
4% play rating
(317) Syracuse at (318) Maryland
Maryland will host Syracuse in both school's 2019 conference opener. There will be defensive dialogue throughout the week surrounding the Terps 79-0 victory over Howard and the 24-0 shutout the Orange posted against Liberty. Both teams are capable defensively but it is the Orange that is at a strategic advantage in this early Saturday kickoff.
Give credit where credit is due. Following the tragic death of offensive lineman Jordan McNair at a team workout, the school suspended head coach DJ Durkin. But less than a week later decided that the incident needed to be wiped clean and fired coach Durkin. The school and the team staff underwent weeks of coaching and medical scrutiny throughout the 2018 campaign. And intimately the university decided to bring in a coach with previous ties.
Maryland ultimately hired Mike Locksley to assist in repairing the damage to the football program. Locksley owned a 3-31 career mark but it was decided that he was the right man to trust in restoring the Terrapin brand.
Locksley's 3-31 record as a head coach was ignored by a committee directed to find the right man for a situation that presented a number of challenges. What was important was whom Locksley had worked with and the philosophy of coaching kids rather than wins and losses. His time with Nick Saban and other successful football teachers resulted in Locksley being offered the football gig for the Terps.
Locksley assembled a completely new staff. He found a way to save a large number of the 2019 commitments. And most importantly, according to the university, did and said what they wanted him to... for political reasons.
The Terps have a capable running attack that is anchored by Anthony McFarland Jr. The running back set a school freshman record with 1,034 yards and averaged 7.9 yards per carry. He rushed for 200-yard against both Indiana and Ohio State in 2018. And was the lead back for an offense that averaged 230.2 yards rushing per game, 17th best in the FBS.
The emphasis on running the football will not carry the same weight in 2019. The first-year coaching staff and new opening day quarterback for the fourth straight September will result in some first-month struggles.
Virginia Tech transfer Josh Jackson is in charge of an offense that is capable. It is the defensive side of the football that will be the deciding factor in how many wins or loses the Terps have at season's end.
Maryland returns just three starters from a squad that allowed nearly 400 yards and 30 points per game a season ago. When summer camp opened in early August the Terps scrambled to have two-deep at every position on their depth chart.
Life is and will continue to be different for coach Dino Babers and his staff. And the primary reason for such is the result of making a scheme change from the departed Eric Dungey to the pocket-passing Tommy DeVito.
Babers and OC Mike Lynch played their cards nearly perfectly in the 24-0 victory over Liberty last Saturday. Lynch did just enough to win the game, comfortably, without having to show a large part of the new playbook that was designed during the offseason for Devito.
Syracuse will attack the Maryland defense with running backs with fresh legs and a screen passes on Saturday morning. And with any success in those two areas, the coaches will ask Devito to take shots at the inexperienced secondary of the Terps.
The Orange are more experienced and talent deep defensively. The Cuse front seven registered eight sacks and 14 tackles for loss against Liberty.
And while Syracuse’s new starting quarterback DeVito failed to connect on more than half of his pass attempts and did little down the field with his receivers the coaches were extremely satisfied with what the offense accomplished under the direction of Devito. The staff and team earned the win and did so without exposing too much of the new playbook.
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+EV: CFB 4u: 312 Michigan Wolverines -22.5 -110 (Saturday, September 7th)
+EV: CFB 4u: 308 Virginia Tech Hokies -28 -110 (Saturday, September 7th)
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Las Vegas Wolf's Moves
318 Maryland +2
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SATURDAY 9-7-19 =
NFAC
UFC : POIRIER-NURMAGOMEDOV : NOT Go Distance (-140)...($1,000) - BIG MOVE via Bet365
UFC : NORDINE TALEB -110...($500) via Pinnacle
UFC : ANDREA LEE -215...($500) via Pinnacle (BetOnline at -210)
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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 7 2019 3:30PM
331 Nebraska -3.5(-107) Pinnacle vs 332 Colorado triple-dime bet
Analysis: 3-star (331) Nebraska -3.5 over COLORADO. 3:30pm ET. Both teams had misleading wins in Week 1 as Nebraska had 3 non-offensive TD's, while Colorado was +4 in TO's. However, I trust Scott Frost much more in this one. Frost after last week's game said, "That's as anemic an offensive effort I've been a part of in a long time," Frost said. "That's not the offense I've been seeing all fall camp." Now they can get that offense going against a Colorado defense that gave up 505 yards last week to Colorado St. Also note Nebraska has revenge for losing to Colorado last year in Scott Frost's debut as that game was misleading with Nebraska having a 565-395 yard edge but lost. Finally, the crowd will be 50/50 here as Nebraska fans will travel in droves to a former Big 8/12 rival (first visit in a decade).
Brad Powers | CFB Total - Saturday, Sep 7 2019 10:30PM
385 Stanford / 386 Southern Cal UNDER46.5 Pinnacle single-dime bet
Analysis: 1-star (385/386) Stanford/USC UNDER 46.5. 10:30pm ET. Both teams have QB issues here that I think will lead to a lower scoring. USC QB JT Daniels is out for the year with a torn ACL and the Trojans are going with a true frosh in Kedon Slovis who struggled last week in the second half. Keep in mind, USC threw 34 passes in the first half with Daniels in the new "Air Raid" offense, but just 8 passes with Slovis in the second half as they were ultra-conservative. On the other side, Stanford could be playing without QB KJ Costello who got KO'd late first half vs Northwestern last week. Costello was 16 of 20 for 152 yards in the first half but his replacement Davis Mills was only 7 of 14 for 81 yards in the second half.
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 7 2019 3:30PM
333 Texas A&M 18.0(-110) William Hill vs 334 Clemson single-dime bet
Analysis: 1-star (333) Texas A&M +18 over CLEMSON. 3:30pm ET. Clemson has won 11 straight games by at least 20 points but we're fading them here. First, there won't be an intimidation factor here for Texas A&M, who only lost by 2 points last year to Clemson (outgained Tigers 501-413). Both teams final scores were close to the spread last week. However, A&M was more dominant than the final last week, while Clemson had a somewhat fortunate cover. Finally, there's been a lot of hype around Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence being a generational QB and last week he responded with 2 INT's (only 4 all of last year). Could we see a bit of a sophomore slump?
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+EV: CFB 4u: UCF Knights -10 -110 (Saturday, September 7th)
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Stanford Steve ( 2-3 ) over in the Maryland game, over in the Baylor game, UCLA and Nebraska ML. The Bear ( 0-4 ) Akron, Oregon St., Tulane and W. Michigan. Good luck.
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AJ HOFFMAN
3*
California +14
2*
Texas A&M +17.4
2*
Mississippi / Arkansas Under 53.5
1*
Fla. Atlantic +10.5
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KEN THOMSON
2*
Tulsa -6.5
2*
UNLV -1
2*
Nebraska -4
2*
Miami -3.5
2*
Texas A&M +17.5
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STEPHEN NOVER
3*
Oregon -23.5
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FRED FAOUR
3*
UNLV / Arkansas St. Over 64.5
2*
Hawaii -6.5
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Rob Brown
Current Premium Bets
UFC: Risk 4 units on Curtis Blaydes @ -278 / 1.36 to win 1.44 units (play up to -350 / 1.29)
UFC: Risk 4 units on Mairbek Taisumov @ -250 / 1.40 to win 1.6 units (play up to -350)
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Marc lawrence
army
texas
clemson
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Fezzik | CFL Total - Saturday, Sep 7 2019 7:00PM
687 CAL / 688 EDM UNDER 48.0 Pinnacledouble-dime bet
Analysis: Right back with the under on these 2 teams!
Let's keep the perfect season going!
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PhillyGodfather Moves
02-Sep-2019: CFB 354 Texas St +7 -105
02-Sep-2019: CFB 320 Missouri -13.5
02-Sep-2019: CFB 322 Ohio St -16.5 -110
02-Sep-2019: CFB 367 Western Michigan +17.5
02-Sep-2019: CFB 371 Tulane +18 -110
02-Sep-2019: CFB 338 APPALACHIAN STATE -21-110 (2%) UPGRADED MOVE
03-Sep-2019: CFB [326] TOTAL u45½-105 (NO ILLINOIS vrs UTAH) ($200) (2%)
03-Sep-2019: CFB 355 TOTAL o69.5-105 (NORTH TEXAS vrs SMU)
03-Sep-2019: CFB 369 TOTAL o54.5-105 (LSU vrs TEXAS)
03-Sep-2019: CFB 342 TOTAL u64-110 (ILLINOIS vrs CONNECTICUT)
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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 7 2019 12:00PM
308 Virginia Tech -28.0(-114) Pinnacle vs 307 Old Dominion single-dime bet
Analysis: Obviously, this will be a revenge game for Virginia Tech after losing outright as 27.5-point favorites at Old Dominion last year. Last week, VT had a 29-18 first down edge but the Hokies were -4 in TO’s in their 35-28 loss at Boston College. VT QB Ryan Willis was 29 of 47 for 344 yards and 4 TD’s but did throw 3 INT’s. “For whatever reason, we just played extremely tight as a defense,” VT DC Bud Foster said. “That wasn’t the same group that practiced and how they performed. You saw how we played in the second half, it’s how I was kind of hoping we’d play the entire game.” On the other side, ODU nearly suffered a big upset loss of their own as they escaped Norfolk St 24-21 as 25.5-point favorites. Blowout!
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GREG SHAKER
3*
North Carolina +5
1*
Washington /California under 42
2*
Kentucky / E. Michigan under
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Ultra Sports
CFB:
339 So Mississippi +16’
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Alex B. Smith Sports
College Football
9/7 2* Tulsa -6 (Best Bet)9/7 1* Northern Illinois +23.5
9/7 1* Wyoming -7
9/7 1* Fresno State +3
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GOODFELLA
3*
Washington -13
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Dave Cokin:
343 Arkansas State +2
358 Tennessee -3
359 UCF -10
369 LSU -6.5
382 Texas Tech -34.
310 Akron +9.5:
353 Wyoming -7:
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Ultra Sports
CFB:
339 So Mississippi +16’
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Alex B. Smith Sports
College Football
9/7 2* Tulsa -6 (Best Bet)9/7 1* Northern Illinois +23.5
9/7 1* Wyoming -7
9/7 1* Fresno State +3
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GOODFELLA
3*
Washington -13
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Gold sheet
texas
california
fresno st
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Bezobets
3* Texas A&M +17.5 -115
3* Texas +7 -118
3* Michigan -22 -114
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DR. CHUCK
FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (401) Kennesaw State at (402) KENT STATE
Date/Time: Sep 7 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: KENT STATE 0.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Might be -1 or even -1.5, but any of that works here....if you don't have lay ANYTHING then it is probably at least a 5% play.
Kent is home and off 2 extra days and played a legit Pac 12 contender in their opener and covered despite an ugly performance against the Herm and Lewis coordinator combo...on defense it was better than expected!
Now they face Kennesaw State and don't even lay HFA...holy hell don't get caught not getting this value!!
Game: (317) SYRACUSE at (318) MARYLAND
Date/Time: Sep 7 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 57.5 (-102)
View Analysis
Maryland was impressive on offense last year and really went all out in week 1 against a nothing opponent in Howard but still...79 points is 79 points and Syracuse likes to get it going as well. The Orange certainly showed some rust against Liberty winning just 24-0 but will improve and this total is just damn near 2 TDs shy of where I have it and the value is as high as it comes for this week's card!
Game: (315) RUTGERS at (316) IOWA
Date/Time: Sep 7 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 48.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Holy cow if I didn't like where this opened in the 50 to 50.5 range...and lo and behold here comes the buy down. We backed Rutgers 1H and Over last week for winners and was as impressed with the offense improvements as well as disappointed in how the defense came out and allowed UMass to move the ball. Iowa is clearly the better team and should win and enforce their will on defense....but at 34-14 projected I sure think EACH team can and will score more than that!
Game: (378) PENN STATE Team Total Over
Date/Time: Sep 7 2019 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: PENN STATE Team Total Over 42.5 (-106)
View Analysis
Buffalo fade machine....back the Lions until further notice...maybe the hook could hurt us...but with a line gone from 24 to 30 in a blink for both reasons 50+ sure feels like the most definite outcome.
Game: (387) CALIFORNIA at (388) WASHINGTON U
Date/Time: Sep 7 2019 10:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 44.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Sure is a lot of points for the defensive pedigree on the field Saturday night! This game was 12-10 last year and from watching it in its entirety I sure felt that total was lucky to get to a meager 22 points! Slugfest of ePac proportions is what I like for this game...and both punters to get to the Over number as well haha....
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Dave Essler
3* GOY
Appalachian St -21
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Preston johnson
washington -13.5
fau +11
colorado over 64
utah over 43.5
oregon state +6.5,
iowa over 48
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Todd fuhrman
marshall +12
coastal carolina +7.5
lsu -6.5
miami -3
nebraska -4
ohio +5
so florida +6
clemson -17
tulane over 51.5
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Clay travis
missouri -14
stanford +1.5
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Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole
Double Plays
Texas A&M +17 over Clemson
Texas +6.5 over LSU
Single Plays
Army +22 over Michigan
Utah -21.5 over N. Illinois
Nebraska -4 over Colorado
BYU +3.5 over Tennessee
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Tom Stryker
23-6 ATS NCAA HIGH NOON NON-CONFERENCE SUPERPLAY
Ohio State
18-2 ATS NCAA TOP FINANCIAL EARLY BEST BET
Missouri
23-6 ATS NCAA HOME COOKIN’ WAGER OF THE MONTH
Michigan State
17-3 ATS NCAA ULTIMATE CONFERENCE INVESTMENT
Miami (Fl)
28-11 ATS NCAA SATURDAY NIGHT STEAMROLLER
Minnesota
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Dwayne Bryant
CFB Top Trifecta
3% Va Tech -28.5
3% Syracuse +1.5
3% Nebraska -4
Brad Powers | CFB Total - Saturday, Sep 7 2019 7:00PM
361 W. Kentucky / 362 Florida Intl OVER 56.0 Westgate double-dime bet
Analysis: Play on a WKU team that after struggling on offense the last two years will be much improved. Last week, that offense managed 488 yards however, their defense allowed 13.9 yards per pass. Meanwhile, FIU's defense allowed 545 yards to Tulane
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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 7 2019 12:00PM
314 Purdue -7.0(-110) William Hill vs 313 Vanderbilt single-dime bet
Analysis: Last week Purdue had 24-19 first down and 519-404 yard edges but were -5 in TO’s in their 34-31 last-second loss to Nevada. The Boilers led 24-7 at halftime and 31-14 late 3Q. Nevada got a 4th&7 conversion with 1:26 left in the game and also got a 3&10 20-yard TD with :52 left. Purdue QB Elijah Sindelar threw a costly INT late that set Nevada up for a game-winning 56-yard FG. “It’s more than disappointing,” Purdue coach Jeff Brohm said. “I didn’t like it. I got to do some things to get everything fixed.” Now the Boilers face a Vandy team that might be licking its wounds still from a physical Georgia team.
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Bezobets
3* Texas A&M +17.5 -115
3* Texas +7 -118
3* Michigan -22 -114
ADDED
3* FAU +13 -110
3* Oregon -23.5 -110
2* Miami ML/Nebraska ML +133
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