Thursday 9/26/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF, & MBL games
DR. CHUCK
Game: (101) Philadelphia Eagles at (102) Green Bay Packers
Date/Time: Sep 26 2019 8:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 48.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Thursday Night Football special here and the Eagles are as injured as they were Sunday!....only difference is they must now travel on a crazy short week to the Midwest and have basically 1 real day of practice. The defenses are who I always trust on these short weeks, but additionally, despite having Rodgers as the QB, Pettine's defense is the star of the Packers in the early going of this season (with a nod to Kirk) and the Pack also has a very surprising early season challenge in the division not only from Minny and Chicago...but Detroit as well!
This Thursday game has no reason to go differently than the previous episodes....and Pederson isn't even gonna risk a tricky game plan with the injury risk and extensive list he's already working with....conservative offense will be the name of the game...with the largest total so far!
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Teyas Sports
9/26/2019
GUARANTEE NFL GREEN BAY OVER 45 1/2
BONUS PLAY NFL GREEN BAY -5 CFB NAVY +10 1/2 & UNDER 53 1/2
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Alan Scozzari
TIP OF THE DAY package A Wager
Netherlands Eredivisie
Feyenoord - AZ Alkmaar
UNDER 3 -107
GUARANTEED package A Wager
Spain LaLiga
Espanyol +0,5 +100
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Jack Winningham
Early pick for today - MLB - the opening line for the Twins is -198. Many off shores don't have this on the board yet. Although the Twins just clinched the division, and can't improve their seeding, nor make it worse, they are still likely to beat Detroit today.
Don't go heavy on this, but realize that Detroit has been mailing it in for weeks, and that once their bullpen enters the game, this will likely be a Series sweep for Minnesota.
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Fezzik | NFL Total - Thursday, Sep 26 2019 8:20PM
101 PHI / 102 GBP OVER 46.0 Pinnaclesingle-dime bet
Analysis: The Philly Defensive Line has been ineffective with key injuries. YTD, Philly only has 2 sacks, and they have had to dial up blitzes to get any pressure. Further, the Eagles are decimated in the Secondary, and now CB Darby is out.
In their loss to Mia, Atl's Ryan literally missed 3 TD bombs to open receivers. I Expect Rodgers will not miss those passes.
On offense, the Eagles are likely getting back WR Jeffery and I expect Wentz to have some success. The GB D has been great, but they HAVE played Chicago/Den/(and Minn) so this will be a much bigger test.
I lean to GB in the game, but 1 unit on the OVER.
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Dave Essler
3* Memphis/Navy O54.5
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INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
4* Memphis-10.5(NCAAFB)
3* Eagles/Packers Under 46
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ELITE SPORTS PICKS
Eagles/Packers Under 46
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NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
4* Indians RL-125
3* Packers-4.5
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Seabass day MLB: 400 brewers , 400 Rockies
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newworldinsiders
VEGAS INSIDER: Reds OV 8
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CleInsiderSports
NFL
Packers -4
MLB
Tigers ML (+135)
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
Master Sports
MLB
3* #909 Cubs -130 (Quintana)
Dave price
6 * AL mound mismatch
Cleve -1.5
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Stephen Nover
RL destroyer
Houston-1.5
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+EV: MLB 4u: 904 San Diego Padres +1.5 +130 (C Kershaw | J Lucchesi) (Thursday, September 26th)
+EV: MLB 3u: 918 Chicago White Sox +170 (A Civale | D Cease) (Thursday, September 26th)
+EV: MLB 3u: 920 Los Angeles Angels +1.5 +140 (W Miley | J Barria) (Thursday, September 26th)
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Bezobets
3* GB/PHI Un47
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Vince Akins
Diamond Trends
Mariners ML ML (+210)
A's/Mariners UNDER 9
Phillies/Nationals OVER 9
Red Sox/Rangers UNDER 10.5
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Marco D'Angelo
3% Memphis -10.5
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Jack brayman
40 Dime Winner
Line/Total: +4 as of 10:30 am eastern. And as I will always tell you with favorites laying anywhere between +2.5 and +4, I want you buying the half point down.
Analysis: The Green Bay Packers may be the most fraudulent undefeated team left in the NFL. Outside of the Buffalo Bills, I 100 percent believe this. The Packers could easily be 0-3.
Let's start with the awful offense that has been outplayed by all three opponents when you look inside the numbers. To wit:
Game 1 at Chicago: 213 yards vs. 254
Game 2 vs. Minnesota: 335 yards vs. 421
Game 3 vs. Denver: 312 yards vs. 310
TOTAL after three: 860 yards vs. 985
They outgained the Broncos by two yards, big deal. And before you tell me the story is about their defense, just slow your roll. Yes, the Packers are No. 2 in points allowed but they're also No. 9 in yards allowed. They have the league's 13th-ranked defense overall, and it should be better considering two of the three foes were the Bears and Broncos. I am telling you, they're not that good.
In my opinion, the Philadelphia Eagles have had a tougher three-game start to the season, opening the campaign. Peep their numbers:
Game 1 vs. Washington: 436 yards vs. 398
Game 2 vs. Atlanta: 286 yards vs. 367
Game 3 vs. Detroit: 373 yards vs. 287
TOTAL after three: 1,095 yards vs. 1,052
When the season began, it was conceivable the Eagles opened the season as the NFC favorites. Many people felt they would be undefeated. They're better than their record, and might be the best 1-2 team in the NFL.
I'm still convinced professional players do not play enough in the preseason. They play too many games, but the starters do not play enough of the games. It's causing a lack of continuity between quarterbacks and receivers over the first few weeks. Weeks 1 and 2 the last six years are 62 percent to the under, while Week 3 is 60 percent to the over. It clearly shows there is more continuity to the quarterback-to-receiver combination. Sure, we see the Bookmakers adjusting down to the low scoring, but the chemistry arrives.
And tonight I'm expecting Carson Wentz to be much better, especially with Alshon Jeffery returning to the lineup.
As a whole, at 1-2 and the Dallas Cowboys out to a 3-0 start, the Eagles will know what they're up against and will be an angry bunch of Green Birds looking for an outright win. They'll be well-prepared, and if I were the Packers, I would be scared to face a 1-2 team that will be this hungry and this good.
I'm not concerned with this one being on the road, as Wentz has thrown two or more touchdown passes in five of his past seven on the road. He also has thrown seven touchdowns vs. zero interceptions in his past three games against teams from the NFC North.
On defense, the Eagles will bring tackle Fletcher Cox, who has 5 1/2 sacks and a forced fumble in his last four on the road, and cornerback Rasul Douglas, who had two pass deflections last week and will be looking for his fifth straight game with a pass deflection. Cornerback Sidney Jones is another ball hawk and has also recorded at least one pass deflection in four straight.
Finally, I want you to think about the fact we give home teams an extra field goal for home field. That means these supposed, big bad Packers are just a 1-point favorite on a neutral field, and would 2-point dogs in Philly. I mean, as good as they've looked, and how bad the Eagles have apparently been, why is the line only 4 AT Lambeau Field?
Take the much-better-than-we've-seen-Eagles against the fradulent Packers tonight.
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NFAC
NFL
101) OVER 47 PHI-GBAY…($750) via Pinnacle
101) EAGLES +4…($750) Carib, Bovada, & Top Bet at +4.5
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Augie J - Eagles
Champagne - Packers
Dime Man - Memphis
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Jeff Ma
eagles
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Miller locks
7:05 pm est mlb
chicago cubs vs. Pittsburgh pirates
pick: Pittsburgh pirates (+108)
risk: 11 units
8:00 pm est ncaaf
navy vs. Memphis
pick: Navy +11 (-112)
risk: 11 units
8:20 pm est nfl
philadelphia eagles vs. Green bay packers
pick: Green bay packers -4 (+100)
risk: 11 units
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (103) NAVY at (104) MEMPHIS
Date/Time: Sep 26 2019 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H MEMPHIS -7.0 (-103)
View Analysis
Memphis was a team we backed last year in this matchup when Navy was on the downside and Memphis putting together a nice season still working toward excelling as they had in the Fuentes days. The game moved to the 4th quarter looking like a comfortable road chalk cover of the small -3/-4 line...and ended with nasty turnover-laden football and an outright loss! Navy defeated the Tigers 22-21 and outscored them with 2 late TDs and Memphis not able to do much at all in the final frame.
The Tigers coaching staff do NOT forget how this went...and how Navy turned out to be last season as a whole with only 2 other wins on the season...against Lehigh and Tulsa. I imagine this game starting out the same way...Memphis is solid against the run, Navy won't be likely to call but a couple pass plays in the first half...and considering I don't HATE the full game line at -10 if you can get it...the first half at reduced juice and a mere TD is bargain basement....at home...revenge...and the better team on both sides of the ball.
Memphis can get into the backfield...and has a great YPP differential on the short season...I really don't know if Navy sticks around where this might finish....but 20-7 or 10 for the first half sure feels like it won't be all that difficult for the Tiger offense!
Game: (907) Philadelphia Phillies at (908) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Sep 26 2019 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Washington Nationals -0.5 (-150)
View Analysis
Vargas v. Strasburg
Bryce has hurt feelings and the Nats want to host the Wild card game and SS is on the mound backed by a solid LHP hitting lineup...at home...and facing the worst lineup against RHP in the entire league over the past 2 weeks .
In nearly 300 PAs
23 wRC
-13.3 wRAA
.265 wOBA
65 wRC+
Ridiculously terrible and not aided by a Cy Young caliber starter who knows he can come up huge!
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Rob Veno
Game: (907) Philadelphia Phillies at (908) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Sep 26 2019 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Washington Nationals -1.5 (-138)
View Analysis
Game: (919) Houston Astros at (920) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Sep 26 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 9.5 (-120)
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Northcoast
Thursday Marquee Navy +11
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Big Moves $600
Eagles +4
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Seabass : 300 Mets game over , 400 Indians game over , 300 Oakland RL, 400 Memphis , 400 eagles
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Root-
Mill-eagles
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Teyas Sports
9/26/2019
GUARANTEE MLB NY METS OVER 8 1/2
BONUS PLAYS MLB PITTSBURGH UNDER 9 HOUSTON UNDER 10 CHICAGO W.SOX OVER 9 OAKLAND OVER 9
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Pythagorean pick for today:
1* Star MLB Pick: Chicago Cubs Straight Bet - This is a straight bet on the money line for the Cubs. There is absolutely no chasing involved on this MLB pick.
All the best,
The Champ Team
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Executive
200% Memphis -11
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Tom Stryker
21-3 ATS NFL THURSDAY NIGHT ULTIMATE INVESTMENT
Packers
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Scott Delaney
100 dime/ Memphis
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PickersMx
La Barba 50 Dimes
Green bay -2.5 1st Half
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Fezzik | NFL Total - Thursday, Sep 26 2019 8:20PM
101 PHI / 102 GBP OVER 46.0 Pinnaclesingle-dime bet
Analysis: STRONG LEAN GBay -4-100.
PROPS to consider: Strong leans:
GB to get to 10 points 1st -145
WR Davantee Adams OVER 90.5 reception Yards
Great spot for GB, Thursday game, they are 3rd straight game at home, and injured Eagles on a short week..........
However, at 1-2 Eagles ARE a desperate team, and not their "loss" vs. Det was a game they really won in the stats, but 7 dropped passes and a KO ret TD doomed them......
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Spartan 3* - Eagles
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Bmc $900 navy +11
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Pickersmx
75 Dimes Mushu
Memphis -10.5
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Pickersmx
60 Dimes Lady Pickers
Philadelphia +4
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Lang
Navy +10.5 75 dimer
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Gavazzi
5* Navy
5* PACKERS
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