Monday 9/16/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & MLB games.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Event: (9289) Cleveland Browns at (9290) New York Jets
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 17, 2019 2AM EDT
Play: New York Jets 6.5 (-105)
After losing its season opener at home against the Titans, the Cleveland hype train hits the road to face the Jets under the Monday Night lights. Despite being upset as 5.5-point home favorites, the Browns remain grossly overrated by the betting market, which is partially driven by public misperception.
My math model actually favors New York by 1.34 points in this game and the Jets apply to a very good 75-34 ATS (68.8%) system of mine that invests on certain NFL underdogs (or pick) versus teams with a negative turnover margin. New York also falls into a 100% perfect 12-0 ATS (since 1995) that backs certain NFL teams playing in the second of consecutive home games.
Since 1980, NFL home underdogs off an upset loss in which they allowed 21 or fewer points are 41-20-1 ATS, including 30-10-1 ATS when playing with revenge. Better yet, if these home underdogs enter off a divisional loss like the Jets, they improve to 18-1 ATS. Cleveland is a money-burning 13-33 ATS following a loss, 2-8 ATS off a double-digit home loss and 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in this series.
Following last Sunday's collapse, New York head coach Adam Gase was furious with his team. He was particularly angry with the receivers, saying, "We made some mistakes and they were fatal to us ... They need to do a better job of executing what they're supposed to be doing."
In response, the Jets traded for wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, who had seven catches for 87 yards and two touchdowns in the Patriots' preseason finale. Thomas is familiar with Gase; he served as the Denver Broncos' wide receivers coach from 2010 to 2013 and then as the team's offensive coordinator from 2013 to '14.
Finally, NFL teams coming off a season-opening one-point loss are 12-3-1 ATS since 1980, including 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS at home and 5-0 ATS in the last five games overall. The wrong team is favored in this game - grab the points with the live home underdog and invest with confidence.
Note: New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold will be sidelined indefinitely after being diagnosed with mononucleosis, coach Adam Gase announced Thursday. Trevor Siemian will start Monday night against the Cleveland Browns.
The betting market has overreacted to the news and the value rests squarely with the Jets.
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Red Dog Sports
Sep 16 '19, 1:00 PM in 17h
Soccer | Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08
Play on: Sarpsborg 08 -106 at Pinnacle
Sarpsborg -106
The free soccer pick for Monday is to take Sarpsborg 08.
Valerega 1
Sarpsborg 2
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Mike Wynn
Free Play: Arizona w/Ray -200
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Razor Sharp
WASHINGTON OVER the total of 46½
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Totals4U
Colorado Rockies under 13 1/2
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Atlantic Sports
Oakland Athletics - 290
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#1 Sports
Minnesota Twins - 250
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Platinum Plays
Free Pick: The Kansas City/Oakland Game OVER 10
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Hawkeye Sports
Monday's Free Pick: Arizona - 200
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High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Monday: Arizona Diamondbacks - 200
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Bobby Conn
Sep 16 '19, 4:10 PM in 7h
MLB | Orioles vs Tigers
Play on: Orioles -141 at GTBets
1* Free Play on Orioles -141
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Rob Vinciletti
Sep 16 '19, 4:10 PM in 7h
MLB | Orioles vs Tigers
Play on: Orioles -127 at YouWager
The MLB Comp Play for Monday is on Baltimore at 4:10 eastern, The Orioles have Means on the mound and he has won his only start as a road favorite. He takes on a Tigers team that is 11-43 vs pitchers that have a WHIP of 1.15 or less and they have dropped 16 of 23 vs a lefty and 4 of 5 with Alexander pitching. For our system we play on road favorites off a road win that scored 5 or more runs with no errors vs an opponent off a home loss by 5 or more runs that scored 2 or less runs on 10 or more hits and also had 0 errors in the loss. These teams are 7-0 since 2005. For the MLB Free play. We will play on the Orioles. Rob V- GC Sports
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Jimmy Boyd
Sep 16 '19, 7:40 PM in 11h
MLB | Padres vs Brewers
Play on: Brewers -151 at 1BetVegas
1* Free Pick on Brewers -151
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Hunter Price
Sep 16 '19, 7:40 PM in 11h
MLB | Padres vs Brewers
Play on: Padres +147 at YouWager
1* Free Pick on Padres +147
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Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Monday : Take KANSAS CITY/OAKLAND OVER the total of 9½ runs
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Golden Dragon
FREE WINNER for Monday
NY Mets Matz -155
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NSA(The Legend)
MLB – Twins -1.5
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Gameday Network
MLB – Athletics over 9.5
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VegasSI
MLB – Cardinals +130
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Vegas Line Crushers
MLB – Brewers -160
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Sports Action 365
MLB – Tigers +135
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Point Spread Report
MLB – Cubs -170
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Lou Panelli
MLB – Diamondbacks -1.5
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Gerry “Big Cat” Andino
MLB – Athletics -1.5
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Platinum Info Club
MLB – Rockies under 13.5
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William E. Stockton
MLB – Brewers -160
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Vincent Pioli
MLB – Tigers over 9
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Steve “Scoop” Kendall
MLB – Cubs under 9
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SCORE
MLB – Cardinals over 8
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Fred Callahan
MLB – Twins over 9.5
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Jimmy Boyd
Sep 16 '19, 7:40 PM in 2h
MLB | Padres vs Brewers
Play on: Brewers -151 at 1BetVegas
1* Free MLB Pick on Milwaukee Brewers -151
Easy play here on the red-hot Brewers at home against the slumping Padres. Milwaukee enters the series having won 9 of their last 10 to stay right in thick of things in both the NL Central and Wild Card races. Padres on the other hand have lost 4 straight and have nothing to pay for over these final weeks.
Milwaukee may have lost Yelich, but the offense is still rolling. Brewers have scored 5 or more in 5 of their last 8, including each of their last 2. I look for the offense to stay hot against the Padres Garrett Richards, who will be making his first start in more than a year at the big league level.
Brewers will send out Zach Davies, who has been on top of his game of late with a 2.57 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Milwaukee is 14-5 in Davies last 19 starts vs a team with a losing record. Padres have lost 6 straight on the road and are just 2-7 in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record. Take Milwaukee!
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Dave Price
Sep 16 '19, 7:40 PM in 2h
MLB | Padres vs Brewers
Play on: Brewers -155 at BetOnline
Dave’s Monday Free Play:
1* on Milwaukee Brewers -155
The Key: The Milwaukee Brewers are doing everything in their power to make the playoffs. They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games overall to move within one game of the wild card and 3 games of the division lead. Now they get to host the San Diego Padres, who are out of contention and have lost 4 straight coming in. Zach Davies is 9-7 with a 3.77 ERA in 28 starts this year, and 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 3 outings. Davies has never lost to the Padres, going 3-0 with a 3.58 ERA in 5 lifetime starts against them. Garrett Richards will be making his first start of the season for the Padres and is overmatched here. The Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 road games. San Diego is 0-6 in its last 6 against a right-handed starter. Take Milwaukee.
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Cole Faxon
Sep 16 '19, 7:45 PM in 2h
MLB | Nationals vs Cardinals
Play on: Cardinals +137 at YouWager
FREE PLAY on Cardinals +137
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Totals Guru
Sep 16 '19, 7:45 PM in 2h
MLB | WAS vs STL
Play on: OVER 8 -110
Free Total Annihilator On Nationals vs Cardinals over 8 -110
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Mike Williams
Sep 16 '19, 8:05 PM in 2h
MLB | Reds vs Cubs
Play on: Reds +182 at YouWager
1* on Reds +182
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John Martin
Sep 16 '19, 8:40 PM in 3h
MLB | Mets vs Rockies
Play on: Mets -145 at 5dimes
1 Unit FREE PLAY on New York Mets -145
The New York Mets are still clinging on to life in the wild card. They have a great chance to make up some ground this week against one of the worst teams in baseball in the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies have been awful in the second half of the season, going 21-46 in their last 67 games overall. Steven Matz is having a great season for the Mets at 10-8 with a 3.87 ERA in 27 starts. Matz is 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in his last three starts. Antonio Senzatela is 9-10 with a 6.87 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 22 starts for the Rockies. The Mets are 12-3 in their last 15 road games against a right-handed starter. The Mets are 4-1 in Matz’s last five starts. The Rockies are 1-4 in Senzatela’s last five starts. Give me the Mets.
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Kenny Walker
Sep 16 '19, 9:40 PM in 4h
MLB | Marlins vs Diamondbacks
Play on: Marlins +195 at Buckeye
Free Pick on Marlins
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Jack Jones
Sep 16 '19, 10:07 PM in 4h
MLB | Royals vs A's
Play on: A's -1½ -141 at Pinnacle
Jack’s Free Pick Monday: Oakland A’s -1.5 (-141)
The Oakland A’s have been dominant in the second half of the season and are trying to cling on to a wild card spot in the National League. They are 53-24 in their last 77 games overall, including 11-2 in their last 13 games. They are hitting the cover off the ball as they have scored a combined 59 runs in winning each of their last six games coming into this series.
The Kansas City Royals just lost three straight to the Astros at home and scored a combined 5 runs in those three games. They are now 55-95 on the season. Starter Glenn Sparkman is 4-10 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.448 WHP in 20 starts this season, including 1-5 with a 9.27 ERA and 1.880 WHIP in 10 road starts.
Tanner Roark is having a solid season in Oakland, going 10-8 with a 4.01 ERA in 28 starts, including 4-6 with a 3.81 ERA in 14 home starts. Sparkman faced the A’s on August 29th, giving up 7 runs in 4 1/3 innings for a 14.55 ERA and 2.309 WHIP in his one career starts against them.
The Royals are 1-9 in Sparkman’s last 10 starts. Kansas City is 0-9 in Sparkman’s last nine starts vs. a team with a. Winning record. Kansas City is 11-40 in its last 51 vs. AL West opponents. Oakland is 52-15 in its last 67 vs. AL Central foes. The A’s are 4-0 in Roark’s last four home starts. Bet the A’s on the Run Line Monday.
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