Saturday 10/26/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & MLB games.
Tony Weston
COMPLIMENTARY WINNER
The Oregon Ducks looked dead in the water against the Washington Huskies. Instead, they ride into Saturday's game against Washington State enjoying a six-game win streak after their comeback win at rival Washington, and a jump to No. 11 in both the Associated Press Top 25.
The Ducks, the first Pac-12 team to start 4-0 in conference play since Stanford in 2017, are going put that defense to work this week against Washington State, slowing Mike Leach's offensive machine down.
Oregon still controls its own destiny in the Pac-12 North, and the path to a division title continues in against the next big obstacle.
The Ducks are winning because of the seventh-best scoring defense in the country. Years ago, under Chip Kelly, we talked about offense with this team. Now, we're talking about a stingy defense that I feel can go in and shut down the Cougars' high-powered offense after last week's confidence-building win against Washington.
Oregon's defense doesn't gets enough credit, and yet over its last six games it's allowed just 56 points - less than 10 points per game.
And Saturday we'll see the trend continue. The Ducks have shut down the air game of their opponents, allowing a modest 178.6 yards per game passing on average, 15th best in the nation.
Oregon held its first three conference opponents to less than 10 points for the first time since 1933, before giving up 31 to Washington. Prior to the Huskies, the Ducks allowed just one touchdown over the last 63 opponents' possessions.
Washington woke things up for the Ducks offense, as they fell behind. But behind the right arm of senior quarterback Justin Herbert and a physical run game, Oregon came back from 14 points down in the second half at Washington.
It marked the first two-touchdown second half comeback since 2008 at Purdue. Two of Herbert's four scoring strikes passes came in the final quarter.
Too much confidence coming into this one.
Play Oregon here.
2* OREGON
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Jack Brayman
The Fresno State Bulldogs are my free pick for Saturday, as they're going to blast the visiting Colorado State Rams.
Fresno State is in after a 56-27 thrashing of the UNLV Rebels, who held their own in the first half, but unraveled when the Bulldogs defense came to life in the third quarter. Fresno State turned five turnovers into 28 points. The 'Dogs scored 21 of those points during a nine-minute span in the second half as their lead grew from eight to 36 points.
Justin Rice forced a fumble and recovered a fumble in the same game for the second time this season - the recovery was an 18-yard touchdown return which gave Fresno State a 15-point advantage late in the third quarter and began a stretch of 28-unanswered points. The junior linebacker led Fresno State in tackles for the fourth time in the last five games as he racked up 10, and was named Mountain West Conference Defensive Player of the Week for his efforts.
I know Colorado State has a prolific passing game, but it's also 2-5 this season, and wilts against better defensive units. We saw Utah State and San Diego State shut this offense down, we're going to see Fresno State stymie the Rams just the same.
The Bulldogs have a knack for nabbing turnovers, as they rank eighth in the nation with 1.17 per game. They're also a very disciplined bunch that ranked seventh in the country with just 40.17 penalty yards per game.
Surprisingly, the Rams have the edge all-time in this series, with a 9-5 mark. Fresno State has lost two straight in the series and five of the last six. That said, these programs haven't met since 2016, and that series mark stretches back to 1992.
That's not to say coach Jeff Tedford - one of the best in the business - hasn't reminded his troops how important this game is, not only for conference status, about also to draw closer to .500 in the series.
Fresno State is the better team, and just as we saw it cover 15.5 points at home against a terrible UNLV team, we'll see the Bulldogs cover a lesser number against a team that is slightly better than the Rebels.
5* FRESNO STATE
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Chris Jordan
Listen to Big Ten action for Saturday, as I like the Wisconsin Badgers plus the points against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Now I know what you're thinking, Ohio state is off a blowout win against Northwestern, and Wisconsin comes in after an upset loss to Illinois.
But I am of the firm belief, especially in the Big Ten, That you have to take into consideration strength of schedule. In Ohio State still has Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan on its schedule.
So while it has dominated its opponents, Ohio State has had no choice but to show us what it can do against these types of opponents. Wisconsin got caught in a Trap game, on the road, looking ahead, and will be highly driven when it arrives in Columbus.
Yes I know Ohio state is impressive offensively and defensively on the stat sheet, but, again it is going to be facing its toughest opponent it has all season.
Wisconsin still has the overall number one defense in the country. It ranks number one overall, it ranks number one against the rush, it ranks number one against the pass, it ranks number one against the scoreboard, it ranks number one in stopping 3rd down conversion, it ranks number one in the red zone, and most importantly it ranks number one with its time of possession on the other side of the ball. That is why this defense can stay so fresh and perform the way it does.
I'm not getting into playmakers, and specifics about which quarterback can do what, and who are the headliners. The fact is, if Wisconsin doesn't lose last week, this is not a double-digit spread.
We're getting pure value in this spot.
Take the underdog.
3* WISCONSIN
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Paul Leiner
Three CFB Picks 10/26
100* Over 47 Buffalo/C. Michigan
100* Hawaii -9.5
100* Arizona State -3
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Bobby Conn
Oct 26 '19, 12:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Iowa vs Northwestern
Play on: Northwestern +10 -110 at 5dimes
1* Free Play on Northwestern +10 -110
After a rough stretch to start October, the #20 Iowa Hawkeyes (5-2) have been able to retain their ranked status. Saturday, the Hawkeyes will be on the road to take on the Northwestern Wildcats (1-5).
Iowa recovered from two straight losses to #19 Michigan and #10 Penn State with a 26-20 win over Purdue. Over their past three games, the Hawkeyes have only managed to score a combined 53 points.
On average, the Hawkeyes are scoring 25 points per game on 405 yards of offense while allowing 12 points per game on 275 yards.
Nate Stanley leads the Iowa offense from under center. On the season, Stanley has thrown for 1,771 yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions.
Northwestern has lost four straight, but stayed within nine of #8 Wisconsin and within three of Nebraska.
On average, the Wildcats are scoring 13 points on 277 yards of offense while allowing 25 points per game on 345 yards.
Northwestern hasn’t offered much in the way of offense, but Drake Anderson has managed to rack up 405 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
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Marc Lawrence
Oct 26 '19, 12:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Mississippi State vs Texas A&M
Play on: Mississippi State +10½ -109 at GTBets
Play - Mississippi State (Game 121).
Edges - Bulldogs: 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS when coming off three losses-exact … Aggies: 0-3 SUATS in this series … With the Bulldogs back to the bowl wall, we recommend a 1* play on Mississippi State. Thank you and good luck as always.
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Cole Faxon
Oct 26 '19, 12:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Liberty vs Rutgers
Play on: OVER 43½ -110
FREE PLAY on Liberty/Rutgers over 43½ -110
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Jack Jones
Oct 26 '19, 12:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Illinois vs Purdue
Play on: Purdue -9½ -108 at Pinnacle
Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Purdue -9.5
I absolutely love fading the Illinois Fighting Illini in this spot Saturday. They are coming off one of their biggest wins in school history, upsetting Wisconsin 24-23 as 29-point home underdogs last week. That result came out of nowhere as the Fighting Illini had lost four straight coming in.
Wisconsin was clearly overlooking Illinois and looking ahead to its huge showdown at Ohio State this week. And the Badgers made some very bad decisions down the stretch that cost them the game. Now, Illinois is in line for a huge letdown off that monumental victory. Look for them to get their doors kicked in at Purdue this weekend.
The Boilermakers made some changes up front along the offensive line and have played well since. They beat Maryland 40-14 at home two weeks ago as 4.5-point underdogs and racked up 547 total yards. Last week, they threw for 327 yards on a very good Iowa defense and only lost 20-26 as 17.5-point road underdogs. Now they should hang a big number on this poor Illinois defense this week.
Illinois is still a bad football team. The Fighting Illini have been outgained in five straight games. The only two games they outgained their opponents in were their wins over Akron and Connecticut. Well, Akron is the 2nd-worse team in the FBS, while UConn is the 3rd-worse team. I only have dreadful UMass power rated below those two squads.
Illinois has been outgained by an average of 197.2 yards per game this season against teams not named UConn or Akron. The Fighting Illini are giving up 35.0 points, 465.3 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play in conference play this season. This improving Purdue offense should be able to do whatever they want against this Illinois defense.
Purdue is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Illinois. It has scored an average of 36.3 points per game in those three meetings. Purdue won 46-7 last year as 10.5-point road favorites, and 29-10 at home in 2017 as 14-point favorites. I believe the Boilermakers should be favored by double-digits this week given the massive letdown spot for Illinois. And I fully expect them to win by double-digits.
Illinois is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game. The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Illinois is 18-37 ATS in its last 55 games following an ATS win. Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Purdue Saturday.
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Steve Janus
Oct 26 '19, 2:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Ohio vs Ball State
Play on: UNDER 62 -110
1* Free Sharp Play on Ohio vs Ball State under 62 -110
My money is on the UNDER 62 in Saturday's MAC showdown between Ball State and Ohio. This is a huge game in the MAC. Bobcats are tied on top the East division at 2-1, while the Cardinals are sitting on top the West at 3-0 in league play. Ball State's defense has been great the last 3 games. They just held Toledo to 14 points. Ohio is coming off two high-scoring games, including a 45-point outburst last time out against Kent State. UNDER is 21-9-1 in Bobcats last 31 after scoring 40 or more. UNDER is also 13-4-1 in the Cardinals last 18 games played in October and 19-9 in their last 28 off a cover. BET THE UNDER 62!
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Matt Josephs
Oct 26 '19, 2:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Nevada vs Wyoming
Play on: Wyoming -13½ -110 at BetOnline
Nevada is a mess right now as continue to play musical chairs at quarterback. Malik Henry has been taken off the roster and is focusing on academics. Outside of a couple of weeks, this team's offense hasn't worked. They've scored over 30 three times and under 20 four times. There will also be an issue with wind which will effect things if they try to throw it. Nevada's defense has struggled against the run which is how Wyoming wants to beat you. They've run it 40 times or more five times already and have a bye week next week. The quarterback Chambers is getting a little bit better, but really it's the defense also that helps out. They are very good against the run and have held their own against the pass. To me, the Wolf Pack are pretty bad and the Cowboys should be able to do whatever they want to.
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Mark Wilson
Oct 26 '19, 2:30 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Western Kentucky vs Marshall
Play on: Western Kentucky +6 -113 at BMaker
Free Play on Western Kentucky +6 -113
The top two Conference-USA East teams meet as Western Kentucky (5-2) heads on the road to take on Marshall (4-3). The Hilltoppers are on a four-game win streak and feature one of the better defenses in the country. Western Kentucky is 20th in points scored, 13th in pass defense, 29th in rush defense, and 22nd in yards per play. Marshall has the slightly better offense on paper but this is one of the tougher defenses that the Thundering Herd will play this season. Getting plus points in a conference matchup with a stout defense is the best bet in this game. Look for WKU to cover the spread in this game. WKU is 5-1 ATS in their last six games and has covered the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams. Marshall is 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
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Totals Guru
Oct 26 '19, 3:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | New Mexico State vs Georgia Southern
Play on: OVER 54 -110
Free Total Annihilator On New Mexico State vs Georgia Southern over 54 -110
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Jimmy Boyd
Oct 26 '19, 3:30 PM in 5h
NCAA-F | Penn State vs Michigan State
Play on: Michigan State +6½ -105 at sportsbook
1* NCAAF - Free Pick on Michigan State Spartans +6½ -105
Perfect spot to back the Spartans at home against the Nittany Lions. Not only do I think Penn State is overvalued coming in ranked No. 6 at 7-0, but this also a brutal spot for the Nittany Lions coming off two prime time games. First was a hard fought 17-12 win at then No. 17 Iowa and last week in their big white out game they narrowly beat No. 16 Michigan.
Not only are they going to be gassed, but they are catching Michigan State off a bye. I have to think the Spartans are itching to get back on the field after getting embarrassed in their last two against Ohio State and Wisconsin. Sure those were both ugly, but they were on the road.
One thing with Penn State is they have not looked nearly as dominant as they did early on against better competition. Most notably on offense. I think Michigan State's defense will be able to keep the Nittany Lions in check and potentially win this game outright.
Spartans won 21-17 as a 13.5-point road dog at Penn State last year and the season before won 27-24 as a 9.5-point home dog. Michigan State is 5-1 ATS last 6 overall in the series. Take Michigan State!
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Brandon Lee
Oct 26 '19, 3:30 PM in 5h
NCAA-F | Indiana vs Nebraska
Play on: Indiana +2½ -110 at BetOnline
10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Indiana +2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Indiana as a slim dog against Nebraska. It's unlikely the Cornhuskers will have starting quarterback Adrian Martinez and backup Noah Vedral is questionable. Running back Maurice Washington and wide out Wan'Dale Robninson both may now play.
Nebraska's offense has done next to nothing without Martinez. In there last 3 games they have scored 7 against Ohio State, 13 against Northwestern and 7 against Minnesota. Indiana's defense is more than good enough to keep them in check. Also while the Hoosiers starting QB (Michael Penix) is also questionable, they got a reliable backup in Peyton Ramsey ready to go if needed. Ramsey is completing 74% of his attempts with a 6-2 TD-INT ratio.
Fading Nebraska at home has been a great move. Cornhuskers are 4-13 ATS last 17 home games. That includes an 0-6 ATS mark at home against teams who complete 58% or more of their pass attempts. Indiana as a team is completing 70.1% with an impressive 8.1 yards/attempt. Give me the Hoosiers +2.5!
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Rob Vinciletti
Oct 26 '19, 3:30 PM in 5h
NCAA-F | Penn State vs Michigan State
Play on: Michigan State +5½ -115 at Bovada
On Saturday the College Football Comp play is on Michigan St plus the 5-6 points at home vs Penn St. The Spartans have rest and will look to bounce back from a shutout loss to Wisconsin last out. Today they apply to a solid system that is 20-3 to the spread since 1988 and pertains to winning home dogs that take on a team off a spread loss. Michigan St has covered 5 of 6 in this series and 5 of 6 as a conference home dog, as well as 3 straight off a shutout loss vs a winning team. Penn St is undefeated but has failed to cover 6 of 7 as a road favorite when they have revenge and 7 of the last 10 here in East Lansing. Look for Michigan St to get the cover. On Saturday we have a massive card up and we are ranked #1 overall sports last 30+ days on multiple networks. For the College Football Free pick. Make it Michigan St plus the 5-6 points. Rob V- GC Sports.
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Kenny Walker
Oct 26 '19, 4:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-F | Hawaii vs New Mexico
Play on: New Mexico +10 -110 at jazz
Free Pick on New Mexico
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Dave Price
Oct 26 '19, 4:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-F | Hawaii vs New Mexico
Play on: Hawaii -9½ -110 at sportsbook
Dave’s Saturday Free Play:
1* on Hawaii -9.5
The Key: It’s a good time to jump on Hawaii this week after two straight blowout losses to Boise State and Air Force, which are arguably the 2 best teams in the Mountain West. This is a Hawaii team that started 4-1 with its only loss to Washington on the road. The Warriors beat Pac-12 foes Arizona and Oregon State, and they throttled Nevada 54-3. They are still a very good team. Now they will be looking to take out their frustration from their last 2 losses on a punching bag in New Mexico. The Lobos are 2-5 this year with their only wins against Sam Houston State by 8 and New Mexico State by 3, both at home. Four of their five losses have been by double-digits, and this one will fit into that category as well. Hawaii should be able to name their score against a New Mexico defense that allows 36.6 PPG and 494.9 YPG. The Warriors have a high-powered offense that puts up 35.4 PPG and 475.3 YPG. The Lobos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off 4 or more consecutive losses. The Lobos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers. New Mexico is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games. Take Hawaii.
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Sal Michaels
Oct 26 '19, 7:00 PM in 8h
NCAA-F | Memphis vs Tulsa
Play on: Tulsa +10½ -105 at Bovada
Free Play on Tulsa +10½ -105
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John Martin
Oct 26 '19, 7:30 PM in 9h
NCAA-F | Notre Dame vs Michigan
Play on: Michigan +1 -106 at Pinnacle
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Michigan +1
Michigan opened as high as a 4-point favorite here against Notre Dame. Now the Wolverines are home underdogs. This is too big of an adjustment in a game I believe the Wolverines win. Michigan showed a lot of fight on the road last week coming back from a 21-0 deficit to nearly upset unbeaten Penn State. It was one of the toughest atmospheres in college football with the white out at night. Michigan actually outgained Penn State by 124 yards and probably should have won. I’m not worried at all about the Wolverines getting back up emotionally to face Notre Dame this week. A big reason for that is that this will be a night game as well at home. And Notre Dame is a huge rival. This is a Notre Dame team that I believe is overrated. The Fighting Irish have outgained four of their six opponents by 47 yards or fewer or were outgained. The only exceptions were home wins over Bowling Green and New Mexico. So they have been far from dominant this season. Home-field advantage has been big in this series as the home team has won five straight and eight of the last nine meetings overall. And the Wolverines just have to win to cover now with this line move. Give me Michigan.
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Sean Murphy
Oct 26 '19, 7:30 PM in 9h
NCAA-F | Notre Dame vs Michigan
Play on: Notre Dame PK -110 at jazz
Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Notre Dame over Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.
Notre Dame hasn't had much success here in Ann Arbor over the years but I do feel the Irish enter this matchup with a considerable edge in terms of overall upside and I'm confident they can get past the inconsistent Wolverines on Saturday night. The key here should be Irish RB Tony Jones Jr. who has been on fire throughout the month of October. If he can break off some big gains against the formidable Michigan defense that should relieve a lot of the pressure from QB Ian Book. On the flip side, Michigan QB Shea Patterson has been relegated to game manager on too many occasions this season and I'm just not convinced the Wolverines offense can do enough to expose a solid Notre Dame defense that will be highly-motivated after failing to turn in its best effort against USC. Look for the opportunistic Irish to make enough plays down the stretch to secure a critical victory in this nationally-televised matchup. Take Notre Dame.
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Dustin Hawkins
Oct 26 '19, 7:30 PM in 9h
NCAA-F | Arizona State vs UCLA
Play on: Arizona State -3 -109 at GTBets
1 Dimer on Arizona State -3 -109
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Hunter Price
Oct 26 '19, 10:05 PM in 11h
NHL | Flames vs Jets
Play on: Jets +105 at Bovada
1* Free Pick on Jets +105
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Ray Monohan
Oct 26 '19, 10:15 PM in 11h
NCAA-F | Utah State vs Air Force
Play on: Utah State +3½ -110 at Buckeye
Aggies +3.5
Saturday night at 10:15pm ET we get the Utah State Aggies (4-2) vs. the Air Force Falcons (5-2) in Mountain West conference football action from Falcon Stadium, in Colorado Springs, Colorado. Air Force is 3-0 at home, Utah State is 1-2 on the road, but Utah State enters the week with an unblemished conference record, aside from Idaho they're the only team that can say that in the MWC.
Air Force comes into the game as four-point favorites and coming off of two straight wins against Fresno State and Hawaii. As of last word we're still not sure which QB we're going to get on Saturday. Both Donald Hammond and Mike Schmidt could be in line for work depending on injury status. The Falcons are averaging 305.9 yards rushing and 133.7 yards passing so far this season so we know what they're all about. Utah State has made it to 4-2 with the opposite gameplan of this year's Air Force team. I think their defense is the strength of this team and I also think they're up for the challenge of stopping the Air Force triple-option playbook. Utah State has one of the best rush defenses in the country.
Some trends to consider. Utah State are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games. Utah State are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games. Falcons are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 conference games. The last time these teams met Utah came away with the win last September 42-32.
I see the Aggies winning this one by a FG, but more than likely its a FG to win the game (by either team). The Falcons stalled out against Navy and I expect that we could see that happen again on Saturday.
Back the Aggies ATS.
Good Luck, Razor Ray
Saturday 5* Free College Football ATS Play
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Pro Computer Gambler
Oct 26 '19, 10:15 PM in 11h
NCAA-F | Utah State vs Air Force
Play on: Air Force -3 -124 at Pinnacle
NCAAF SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: A home favorite off of a blowout (52+ pt) win as a favorite is 306-177-15 63.4% ATS as long as neither team played at a neutral site last game.
This system is now at 372-243 ATS and active for next week on:
AIR, BALL, and OHST
OHU is 0-4 ATS (-8.12 ppg) since Sep 21, 2019.BALL is 4-0 ATS (14.88 ppg) since Sep 21, 2019.
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Mike Williams
Oct 26 '19, 10:15 PM in 11h
NCAA-F | Utah State vs Air Force
Play on: Air Force -3½ -109 at GTBets
1* on Air Force -3½ -109
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Bryan Leonard
Oct 26 '19, 10:30 PM in 12h
NCAA-F | Washington State vs Oregon
Play on: Washington State +14 +103 at BetOnline
153 Washington State at Oregon
The PAC12 has been easy to handicap this year. Once a team looks to be the class of the conference, bet against them. It's already happened to Utah and Washington, now Oregon has gotten all the accolades. Washington State and Mike Leach have owned the Ducks as of late. Winning four straight years by a combined ATS margin of 67 points. These two teams match up much more closely than this current betting line suggests. We look for a closely contested contest with the spread never being in doubt.
PLAY WASHINGTON STATE
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