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Free NFL, NCAAF & MLB Service Plays For Sunday 10/13/19

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(@shazman)
Posts: 60213
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Sunday 10/13/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & MLB games.

 
Posted : October 12, 2019 6:42 pm
(@shazman)
Posts: 60213
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Francesa's Week 6 NFL picks

10-6 YTD

Ravens -10.5
Rams -3
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MARK WILSON
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Saints vs. Jaguars
Free Play on Saints +2½ -110
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SAL MICHAELS
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Saints vs. Jaguars
Free Play on Jaguars -1½ -115
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CHIP CHIRIMBES

San Francisco at L.A. Rams 4:05 ET

Rams (-) over 49ers

My first instinct upon seeing this matchup was Rams all the way. After all 'we' had the Niners Monday night and have managed to beat the Rams and making the double-switch here is right up 'our' ally. Los Angeles has dropped their last two while San Fran is just cruising along at 4-0 and off of a one-sided 31-3 beatdown of the Browns. A win here by the 49ers would push the Rams 3-of the Niners quick start, but the Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight against conference foes and the Niners are 2-7 ATS against the NFC. It's the Rams to win but I just hope that they 'cover...take LOS ANGELES!
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PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Bengals vs. Ravens
Bengals+12½ -120

NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: Since 1995, 1 point favs, pick'ems or underdogs that just had 2 or fewer turnovers last game are 57-28-3 67.1% ATS against a team off of a game with a 3 point or worse turnover margin (regular season). -- Take the Saints
The Lions are 0-16 ATS (-6.31 ppg) on the road vs a divisional opponent after a game in which they converted at least five third downs and had at least ten first downs through the air.The Fortyniners are 15-0 ATS (+10.53 ppg) when they are off a game as a favorite and they are visiting a divisional opponent that has forced fewer than 4.25 punts per game season-to-date and is not 8-plus games below 500.The Cardinals are 0-14 ATS (-12.50 ppg) as a dog off a game as a dog when they are facing a team that is off two seven-plus point losses.

BONUS SYSTEM: Since 1989, Winless Road Dogs or very small 1 or 1.5 pt favorites with at least 3 losses are a massive 65-29-3 (+3.58 ppg, 69.1%) ATS so long as they aren't facing an extremely elite team above 0.660 -- Active this week on the Bengals
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BRANDON LEE
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
49ers vs. Rams

10* FREE NFL PICK (Rams -3)

I'll take my chances here with Los Angeles as a mere 3-point home favorite against the 49ers. I love this spot for the Rams. They are coming off back-to-back losses and getting no love at home against a San Francisco team that just got the public's attention with last week's 31-3 blowout win at home over the Browns on Monday Night Football.

I get the 49ers are 4-0, but I don't think a single one of the teams they beat (Bucs, Bengals, Steelers, Browns) will be in the playoffs. Rams just lost at Seattle on Thursday Night Football 30-29. They outgained the Seahawks 477 to 429 and were up in control of that game most of the way.

That's two straight weeks the offense has looked good. Gurley may or may not play, but I don't think it will matter in the grand scheme of things. Rams have a strong run defense and the 49ers offense has been centered around their run game. Unfortunately for SF they lost arguably the one guy they couldn't lose in fullback Kyle Juszczyk. The run game was not the same after he went out.

Another key factor here is rest. While LA is playing on 3 extra days of rest, the 49ers are playing on a short week of rest. Give me the Rams -3!
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MARC LAWRENCE
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Texans vs. Chiefs
Texans+4½ -115

Edges - Texans: QB Deshaun Watson 8–2-1 ATS as a dog, including 4-0 ATS versus foe coming off a loss … Chiefs: 2-12 SU at home when coming off a home loss … We recommend a 1* play on Houston Thank you and good luck as always.
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CALVIN KING
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Falcons vs. Cardinals
[1%] Free Play on Cardinals under 49
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WILL ROGERS
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Cowboys vs. Jets
OVER 43½

The set-up: Dallas has lost two straight and after this non-conference matchup it has the Eagles before it's bye week. The Cowboys started the season 3-0, but now the questions are starting to be asked if that was because of the weak competition they faced to open the campaign. Dallas looked impotent in its 12-10 setback to a Drew Brees-less Saints team, before then losing 34-24 to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers last weekend. Clearly the visitors can't "look past" their opponent today. In fact, it's totally the opposite. This is a golden opportunity for Dak Prescott and company to get back on track today. At 0-4 and with their starting QB still with question marks surrounding his availability, clearly there's not much good to say about the Jets this season. They do have the Patriots on deck next week, so the road ahead isn't going to get any easier. From a situational stand point, I definitely think this sets up as a wide open "shootout," rather than a slower-paced "chess match."

The pick: Dallas has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten after having lost two of its last three SU, while New York has seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of its last 14 as a home dog. I think this number is a little low, consider the over.

1* FREE PLAY on the OVER Cowboys/Jets.
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RICKY TRAN
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Steelers vs. Chargers
Chargers-6½

I don't think there's any reason to "over-think" this one. Pittsburgh's season is over at 1-4, while LA is desperate to get back into the winners circle at 2-3. Pittsburgh QB' Mason Rudolph is listed as questionable for this one and if he does play, one has to wonder about whether or not he's truly at 100% health after last week's concussion? Philip Rivers and company have two straight tough road contests after this (Tennessee and Chicago), which essentially makes this a "must win" contest for the home side.

Key Trends:

- Pittsburgh is just 10-16 ATS in its last 26 vs. the conference.

- LA is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games.

The verdict: Pittsburgh isn't in the frame of mind to even use the "spoiler factor" as motivation right now. This one has "blowout" written all over it in my opinion; consider the Chargers this weekend!
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DUSTIN HAWKINS
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Cowboys vs. Jets
1 Dimer on Cowboys vs Jets over 43 -115
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TOTALS GURU
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Cowboys vs. Jets
Free Total Annihilator On Cowboys vs Jets over 43½ -109
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JOSEPH D'AMICO
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Saints vs. Jaguars
Saints+1½

Take New Orleans.

Game 259.

10:00 am pst.

Gardner Minshew has played well. But, so has Teddy Bridgewater. The Saints know how to keep games close, with all four of their wins coming by seven points or less. Mind you, they are riding a three-game win and cover streak over such notables as the Seahawks, Cowboys, and Buccaneers. The Jaguars two victories have come against the Titans and Broncos, which are a combined, 3-7. They were shredded last week by Christian McCaffrey and now must face Alvin Kamara this week. New Orleans is money on the road, going 21-8 ATS the last 29 as a guest. The Jaguars are 0-5 the last five in October. Take the Saints. Thank you.
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BRAD DIAMOND
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Texans vs. Chiefs
Texans+4½

1* Houston over Kansas City

At home the Chiefs look to rebound after a home loss (13-19) to Indianapolis, while Houston comes into play since crushing Atlanta 53-32. In the KC loss they again had problems establishing the running game (14/36). If the Texans grab the edge on the ground they could win and cover, especially if QB Mahomes is not 100%. Against the spread numbers illustrate the series road unit is 5-1 ATS L6 with the Texans 7-3-1 ATS against the AFC and 5-2 ATS during October. Good Luck, and remember last Sunday we cashed a 3-0-1 ATS ticket including the 5* NFL Game of the Week on Denver.
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COLE FAXON
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Seahawks vs. Browns
FREE PLAY on Seahawks/Browns over 46 -110
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DAVE PRICE
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Falcons vs. Cardinals
Cardinals+2½

1* on Arizona Cardinals +2.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals continue to fight week in and week out for first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury. They have been competitive in the majority of their games and are coming off a 26-23 road win at Cincinnati in which the offense took off for their best game of the season. The Cardinals amassed 514 total yards on the Bengals in the win. Now they are up against a Falcons team that looks to have quit on head coach Dan Quinn. They have lost 3 straight, including a 14-point home loss to Tennessee and a 21-point road loss at Houston. They gave up 53 points to the Texans last week, so you can imagine Kyler Murray is going to have another big game here. The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a losing record. Atlanta is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games when the total is 49.5 or higher. Take Arizona.
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JACK JONES
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Bengals vs. Ravens

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Baltimore Ravens -10.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are a disaster. They are 0-5 this season and giving up 27.2 points per game and 412.2 yards per game. Their defense can’t stop anybody, and the Baltimore Ravens should be able to hang a big number on them here Sunday. That will be key in the Ravens covering this double-digit spread.

The Bengals gave up 514 yards to a Cardinals team last week that had been struggling on offense coming in. They just cannot get healthy on defense as they are missing guys like Shawn Williams and Carlos Dunlap. Offensively, the Bengals are still missing A.J. Green and John Ross, arguably their two best receivers coming into the season. They also have injuries up front along the offensive line. They are scoring just 16.0 points per game as a result.

I know the Ravens only beat the Bengals 24-21 at home last year with Lamar Jackson. But this Bengals team is a lot worse than that version, and this Ravens team is a lot better. And keep in mind the Ravens rushed for 265 yards on the Bengals last year, so it was a misleading final. They held the Bengals to just 255 total yards in the win.

The Ravens have one of the most improved offenses in the league this year. They are scoring 32.2 points per game and averaging 441 yards per game. They are still running the ball very well at 192 yards per game and 5.3 per carry, but the improvement has come in the passing game with Jackson. The Ravens are averaging 249 passing yards per game and 67% completions. This new balanced attack has been tough for opposing defenses to tame.

Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS vs. teams who give up 6.0 or more yards per play over the last two seasons. The Bengals are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 vs. excellent rushing teams that average 150 or more rushing yards per game. Look for the Ravens to name their score in this one and easily cover this double-digit spread. Bet the Ravens Sunday.
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JOHN MARTIN
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
49ers vs. Rams

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Los Angeles Rams -3

This is definitely a spot that favors the Los Angeles Rams. They are coming off back-to-back tough losses to the Bucs and Seahawks. They are tailing the undefeated 4-0 San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West now by multiple games, so they can’t afford to lose this game at home. Now the Rams have extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday, while the 49ers are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. The Rams have played the much more difficult schedule this year. The 49ers are 4-0, but the four teams they have beaten all have losing records and are a combined 5-15 on the season. Now the 49ers have been hit hard by injuries too. They’ll be playing without their two starting offensive tackles in Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey. They are also without do-it-all FB Kyle Juszczyk, the highest-paid fullback in the NFL and for good reason. And they could be without TE George Kittle, their best offensive weapon who had a questionable tagged placed on him after missing Friday’s practice. The Rams won 39-10 at home and 48-32 on the road over the 49ers last year. Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. Give me the Rams
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SEAN MURPHY
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Redskins vs. Dolphins
OVER 41½

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The matchups don't get much uglier than this as the Redskins travel to Miami to face the Dolphins on Sunday afternoon. With that being said, I do expect both offenses to finally find some success. Not unexpectedly, we're dealing with a relatively low total here as both teams carry extremely low expectations. But it's important to note that both defenses have been incredibly forgiving not to mention generous to opposing offenses. This is an excellent opportunity for QBs Case Keenum and Josh Rosen to pad their stats. Although new Redskins head coach Bill Callahan has talked about wanting to 'establish the run' - an archaic mindset in today's NFL - I don't think he'll be able to resist having Keenum attack a very beatable Dolphins pass defense through the air. This one won't be a true shootout, but it should climb 'over' the posted total. Take the over (8*).
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THE GOLD SHEET

Event: (259) New Orleans Saints at (260) Jacksonville Jaguars
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 13, 2019 1PM EDT
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.0 (-108)

The Jags got gashed by Christian McCaffrey last week in Charlotte, and can assume the clever Sean Payton will have similar designs with his N.O. infantry star Alvin Kamara. But even with McCaffrey running wild, the transcendent Gardner Minshew still gave the Jags a look at that game, and inability to be “gap sound” on stop end vs. Panthers should be a relatively easy fix for Doug Marrone's staff. Teddy Bridgewater has already done more than asked in relief of Drew Brees, but it’s not as if the Saints are “Ohio State-ing” their foes, with all four wins by 7 points or fewer. If getting points, note J’ville 4-1 last five as TIAA Bank Field (Gator Bowl!) dog.
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KEVIN DOLAN

Event: (269) Dallas Cowboys at (270) New York Jets
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 13, 2019 4PM EDT
Play: Dallas Cowboys -7.0 (+100)
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Posted : October 13, 2019 8:07 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 60213
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Mike Wynn

Free Winner: Tennessee/Denver Over 40½ Points
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Totals4U

Early Sunday's Free Selection: Washington Redskins/Miami Dolphins under 42
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Atlantic Sports

Early Sunday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: NY Yankees
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Platinum Plays

Your Free Platinum Play: the Atlanta/Arizona Game OVER 51½ Points
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Arthur Ralph

SUN Titans + 1 1/2
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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Early Sunday: Dallas Cowboys - 7
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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, October 13, 2019

NFL (257) HOUSTON TEXANS VS (258) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Take: (257) HOUSTON TEXANS
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YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SUNDAY: CINCINNATI/BALTIMORE UNDER the total of 47½
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Roz Wins

Roz's SUNDAY, October 13, 2019 Free Pick

(257) HOUSTON TEXANS VS (258) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Take : Texans
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Sharp Bettor

SharpBettor FREE Play Sunday, October 13, 2019

(271) TENNESSEE TITANS VS (272) DENVER BRONCOS

Take : Broncos
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Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Early Sunday Selection Is
WASHINGTON -4
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Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Sunday : DALLAS/NY JETS UNDER the total of 44½
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Golden Dragon

FREE WINNER for Sunday
Cleveland pk
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Hawkeye Sports

Early Sunday's Free Pick: Baltimore Ravens - 10 1/2
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Huddle Up Sports

Free Play: Cincinnati/Baltimore under 48
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Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Sunday: NEW ORLEANS/JACKSONVILLE OVER the total of 43
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Kenny Towers

Your Free Pick for Sunday: Atlanta/Arizona UNDER 52
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RAY MONOHAN
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Seahawks vs. Browns
Seahawks +1

You do the math. Browns on a short week, after a blowout loss in a rout at San Francisco 31-3. They face the Seahawks who make the trip to the eastern time zone for a 1pm ET game coming in off of 10 days rest and a nice win over the division rival Rams. The spread favors Cleveland currently at -1, I've also seen this game at a PK, and Seattle at -1. The total has moved up half a point from 46.5 to 47.

What does your gut say? Mine says Seahawks ATS, even though this feels like a trap game, I'm going to lay my small wager on the QB who has a chance to win an MVP award this year...hint...he's not named Mayfield.

Russell Wilson is having a career year, and his statistics are off the chart. Wilson is leading the NFL with a 126.3 rating while completing 73.1 percent of his passes. He's been playing MVP-level ball, and that kind of play works at home and on the road. He's unflappable. All he's done is throw for 1,409 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and no interceptions this season.

Against the 49ers Mayfield went 8-of-22 and threw a pair of picks, and only 100 yards passing. He's now sitting with 8 INT's and 4TD's on the year. Now I'm not about to predict that type of game for him Sunday, but don't underestimate the Seahawks pass rush. Ziggy Ansah, and Jadeveon Clowney will have Mayfield dancing in the pocket all day long, let alone the push Seattle will get from their interior D-line. They are very underrated. With the NFL's best tackling LB Bobby Wagner playing in the triangle behind a rejuvenated Al Woods and youngsters Quinton Jefferson and Poona Ford who rotate in at DT the Brown O-line are going to have their hands full.

I'm interested to see which running back makes a great impact on this game. We will see a couple good ones on display in Chris Carson and Nick Chubb, I love both their styles of play. It'll make this game fun to watch.

Some trends to consider. SEA are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Cleveland is 1-16 SU and 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games played in October. The Browns are also 6-19-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Browns are 0-2 at home, and in a few hours they'll be 0-3.

Back the Seahawks +1, PK, -1, whatever you see around there! If you were lucky to lock this line in earlier in the week you could have had the Seahawks at +2.5. Congratulations! I have them winning this game by 6.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.
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CHRIS JORDAN

Last week I skipped across the pond and delivered the Oakland Raiders outright against the Chicago Bears, an easy free winner. This week I'm back in London, and I'm playing the Carolina Panthers minus the number against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

This is a revenge game, as the Panthers won nine of 13 in the series, but lost the first meeting at home this season.

I'm becoming a big believer of Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey, whose 866 yards from scrimmage are the second most through five games in NFL history, only to Jim Brown's 988 back in 1963.

McCaffrey has been the most electrifying player I've seen, from every angle, and will have field day against the Buccaneers' 26th-ranked defense, which also ranks dead last against the pass.

That'll open things up for Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen, who has won all four career starts with seven touchdowns vs. no interceptions. He's become the first QB in the Super Bowl era to win his first four starts with no picks and now gets to dissect the worst passing defense in the league. The Bucs have allowed more than 300 yards passing over the past four weeks.

Carolina's defense isn't too shabby, either, ranking eighth overall. The Panthers have the fourth-best passing defense and I'm trusting their pass rush will make things difficult for quarterback Jameis Winston.

Take the Panthers in this one as I make it two in a row across the pond.

Keep in mind, as I always insist, with football favorites in this range, we're buying half points. And if this game is in between -2.5 and -4.5 points, I want you purchasing the half point down.

1* PANTHERS
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JACK BRAYMAN

My free NFL winner this week is on the Seattle Seahawks over the Cleveland Browns.

While the verdict is still out on the Browns, I don't think there is much question about the potential of Seattle.

Cleveland comes into this one after a terrible showing against the underrated San Francisco 49ers. Quarterback Baker Mayfield threw two of his league-high eight interceptions, was sacked four times, and finished with a mere 100 yards passing and a 13.4 rating.

And I really hate to say this considering I thought Cleveland would be better under his leadership, but Mayfield appears to be regressing, not progressing.

For the second straight week he completed just two passes to star Odell Beckham Jr., and he looks lost under pressure. Now you throw him to a Pete Carroll-coached defense, and I think it'll only get worse - even in Cleveland.

I'd rather back Russell Wilson, who looks rejuvenated and has even sparked MVP conversation around his play. Wilson has thrown for more than 1,400 yards, 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions in five games, becoming the first QB with those stats in the Super Bowl era to do so.

Wilson's 73 percent completion percentage leads the league, as does his 126.3 rating, and I expect him to target Tyler Lockett this weekend. Lockett leads Seattle with 30 receptions through five games and is more than halfway to last year's career-best total of 57 receptions.

All Seattle on Sunday.

1* SEAHAWKS
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Posted : October 13, 2019 9:07 am
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