Friday 12/27/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & NBA games.
Emory Hunt
WAKE FOREST +4.5
MICHIGAN ST. VS WAKE FOREST | 12/27 | 3:20 PM EST
WED 12/11
PINSTRIPE BOWL -- Michigan State hasn't had the suffocating defense we're used to seeing, and it has been a struggle all season for the Spartans to score consistently. Wake Forest is solid all the way around and has the better quarterback with Jamie Newman. The Demon Deacons challenge a defense’s discipline against the run, and that opens up big plays in the passing game.
96-58-1 IN LAST 155 CFB ATS PICKS | +3296
6-0 IN LAST 6 MICHST ATS PICKS | +600
TEMPLE +4.5
NORTH CAROLINA VS TEMPLE | 12/27 | 12:00 PM EST
WED 12/11
MILITARY BOWL -- A young Tar Heels team that won consecutive games to earn a bowl bid takes on an experienced Temple squad. The benefit of youth is that you're able to take risks. But a veteran team knows how to take advantage of inexperience and avoid mistakes. Plus, the Owls defense could be tough on UNC.
96-58-1 IN LAST 155 CFB ATS PICKS | +3296
11-1-1 IN LAST 13 UNC ATS PICKS | +990
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TONY FINN
PINSTRIPE BOWL: SPARTY vs DEACONS
Game: (229) MICHIGAN STATE at (230) WAKE FOREST
Date/Time: Dec 27 2019 3:20 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: WAKE FOREST 4.5 (-102)
View Analysis
PLAY: Wake Forest +4.5 (good to +3)
4% confidence rating
(229) MICHIGAN STATE at (230) WAKE FOREST
ACC quarterback Jamie Newman suffered an injury in the school's regular season finale against Syracuse. Clauson says that backup Sam Hartman will be ready if needed under center. Michigan State’s rugged defense. The Spartans held teams to just 22.7 points a game this season. However, Michigan State averaged only 22 points a game offensively. Furthermore Sparty failed to score more than 20 points in five out of the last seven contests.
More gameday analysis posted shortly.
WAKE FOREST +4.5
FINNs HOLIDAY BOWL: USC v IOWA
Game: (233) USC at (234) IOWA
Date/Time: Dec 27 2019 8:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: IOWA -1.0 (-110)
View Analysis
NOTE: This Holiday Bowl release will be Finn's first of two Bowl selections featured on the Free Picks page and in the WagerTalkNews. It is a recommended 4% Best Bet.. game details below.
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PLAY: Iowa Hawkeyes -1 (good to -3)
4% confidence rating
(233) USC at (234) IOWA
The Holiday Bowl matches Big 10 Iowa and Pac-12 USC. The Holiday Bowl is one of those games that rarely garners a large share of hype despite traditionally having intriguing matchups. The time of this bowl, 48 hours after Christmas and a handful of days before New Years is my belief as to why it is semi-overlooked.
Holiday Bowl Vitals
(233) USC Trojans vs. (234) Iowa Hawkeyes
Line: Iowa -2
Total: 52
Game date and time: Friday, Dec. 27, 2019 at 8pm ET
TV Coverage: FS1
Venue: SDCCU Stadium
The result of the Pac-12 Championship game that saw Oregon defeat Utah complicated which conference school would go to what contracted bowl. Utah was part of last year’s Holiday affair. As a result USC was selected to be in the Holiday Bowl game. Without detailing all of the scenarios of which bowl director wasn't satisfied with the pa-12 member taking part in their bowl know that regardless of where USC head coach Clay Helton goes drama follows.
The Big Ten Iowa Hawkeyes were an easy choice for the Holiday spot. After NY6 spots were filled by Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State, the Citrus Bowl took Michigan, which also was a candidate to come here, which left Iowa as the proud Big 10 participant to square off against the Trojans.
USC Trojans (+2, 52)
The game features two teams that couldn't be different in terms of scheme and style. USC has one of the nation’s most explosive offenses (463.7 ypg ranking 18th in FBS). The Trojans average 33.2 points per game. (36th).
Just when you thought Helton and his staff had sold their K-Gunn offense to the young quarterbacks and skilled players injuries set this team back. And make no mistake that USC is the West Coast equivalent of Alabama, LSU, Michigan, Ohio State, Clemson and more in terms of capturing the best high school players in the world.
The coaching staff handed the ball to Kedon Slovis after injuries to the top two signal-callers on the depth chart. And while Slovis was as consistent as the weather he had his 15-minute moments, as well. Slovis averaged 9.0 yards per attempt with a 28/9 TD/INT ratio. USC ranked No. 4 in passing success rate. Much of the credit of the offenses success came with the slew of talent this Trojans croup has at wide receiver.
The USC defense wasn't as exciting nor where they big play oriented. Like Helton's offense the Trojans defense suffered its share of injuries as well. USC ranked in the bottom 10 percent, (ranked 111 in defensive efficiency.
Iowa Hawkeyes (-2, 52)
Iowa is one of the FBS defensive elite. The Hawkeyes surrendered a mere 304.3 yards a game (13th) and 13.2 points (6th) overall. College football pundits will argue that Iowa will never be the best of the Big 10 as long offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz is in charge of the scheme. The Hawkeyes’ offense ranks 87th in yards per play and with the 56th ranking in overall efficiency it puts Iowa in a difficult position to score enough points to support their top-tiered "D"
The Hawkeyes are true to Big 10 tradition. This being effective rushing the football on offense and stopping the run defensively is a winning formula. Iowa ranks 37th in rushing success rate and 71st in passing, So why then does Iowa throw nearly twice as many passes as they have rushing attempts?
The 2019 Holiday Bowl Winner is....
The age ole adage "believe only half of what you see and none of what you hear" is the advise I was given when Helton took the reins of the Trojans football program. I was also advised that it was a waste of time to follow and report to much on USC both in-season and during the summer. Why? Because you can't believe or trust what Helton says or does.
You can trust head coach Ferentz in bowl games. And his offensive coordinator will be much looser with his play calling in a holiday bowl event than he is during the regular season slate.
This Holiday Bowl matchup significantly favors the Hawkeyes. Little Frerentz will play to what this game is in the big picture. Which is nothing more or less than a reward for the kids and the fan base. Expect a balanced attack by Iowa with a few wrinkles that will allow them to take advantage of a defense that is near the top of the BFS in allowing explosive plays, 20 yards or longer.
When Ohio State's Jim Tressel left as Columbia's bench boss it moved Iowa's Kirk Ferentz to the top spot in BTATS (Big Ten Against the Spread). Ferentz's career record against the Las Vegas line is an impressive 112-87.
The Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games; 0-5 ATS in their last 5 December contests and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten teams.
And the icing is that all of the above trends are a part of the current head coach, Helton, not all however. And the Trojans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
IOWA HAWKEYES -1.0 (-110)
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ROB VENO
CFB Friday Bowl Game Total Best Bet
Game: (227) NORTH CAROLINA at (228) Temple
Date/Time: Dec 27 2019 12:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 53.0 (-107)
4% Temple vs North Carolina OVER 53
Rode the defensive weakness of Temple to a 3-0 ticket cashing record this season and will now look to ride that train a fourth time. The Owls defense struggled mightily with up-tempo based teams that featured speedy, home run threats at the skill positions. Memphis, SMU & Central Florida all posted 492, 655 & 614 total yards respectively while scoring 30, 45 & 63 points. Led by QB Anthony Russo, Temple’s offense responded well enough in those games to get all of those games “Over” the total. The 58, 66 & 84 points recorded in those contest are all above and beyond the asking price of 53 in this matchup. North Carolina led by true freshman QB Sam Howell has run 78.6 plays per game on offense this season which ranks #7 in the nation. Their per game total yardage balance (184.0 rypg / 285.0 pypg) combined with play calling splits of 55.8% run & 44.2% force opposing defenses to respect all aspects of their high powered offense. Figure Temple to find vulnerabilities in the Tarheels defense which has allowed 395.8 typg to FBS opponents which allow them to be productive on the scoreboard and send this game “Over” the total of 53.
Recommendation: OVER 53
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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Friday, Dec 27 2019 12:00PM
227 North Carolina -4.5(-110) Westgate vs 228 Temple double-dime bet
Analysis: The Tar Heels clearly exceeded expectations in the first year under Mack Brown. True frosh QB Sam Howell set an NCAA-record with 35 TD passes for a true freshman and with 15 extra practices should only get better here. Meanwhile, Temple head coach Rod Carey is 0-6 SU (-25 ppg) and 0-6 ATS (-18 ppg) in bowl games. Our power ratings are strong on UNC here (see below) and note coach Brown was 13-8 in bowl games.
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Marc Lawrence
College Bowl Crush Play!
Temple
Jaw Dropping Holiday Bowl Top Kill Play!
Iowa
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Phillygodfather
3% on Temple +6 and 1% ML
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Colin Cowherd Marquee 3
Friday 27th:
Iowa -2
Saturday 28th:
Clemson -2
Oklahoma +14
Regular season record: 17-24-1
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Chris the Bear Fallica
Friday 27th:
Temple +5
Michigan St. -3 1/2
Texas A&M -6 1/2
Chris "the Bear" Fallica ESPN Chalk
Friday: Charlotte +6 1/2
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nbaclub info
Golden State Warriors - Phoenix Suns
Over 223
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Bondi
3* Texas A&M, USC
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Brad Feinberg
usc
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Sports Unlimited/Marco
4% IOWA -2
At first glance you look at this USC offense and think how does Iowa stay with them. USC scored 30 or more in 5 of their last 6 games. Freshman QB Slovis has been sensational this year and if not for JT Daniels getting hurt in the first game we may have never even seen him this year. But this Iowa team can play defense and although both teams had higher expectations than ending the season in the Holiday Bowl I have to figure this Bowl Game is a bigger disappointment to USC who will be making the short trip from LA to San Diego. I already felt Iowa would be the more motivated team but now with the passing of former HC Hayden Fry last week Iowa will be playing in his honor. Iowa owns the 14th ranked defense while USC has the 78th at YPP allowed. Big Coaching edge to Iowa as well as Ferentz over Helton is huge. PAC 12 have struggled in Bowl Games and I see that pattern continuing here. My Numbers have Iowa Winning 31-23 as Marco's Bowl Steamroller Play.
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Frank patron 50k texas am -4,5
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Seabass first bowl report : 600 temple 600 temple game over
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Executive Sportsline football
Fri, Dec 27
8:00
BOWL
250%
Iowa -2'
over SoCal
10:15
BOWL
250%
Air Force -2'
over Wash St
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Robin Hood
The top LJP score of the day is Michigan St -4 over Wake Forest. I would advise a 0.75 unit selection on Michigan St -4. The game achieves an LJP score of 3.
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Elite sports pics
a&m-5.5 ncaafb
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Brad Powers | CFB Total - Friday, Dec 27 2019 8:00PM
233 Southern Cal / 234 Iowa OVER 52.5 Westgate single-dime bet
Analysis: Iowa's defense hasn't seen the skill position talent at WR that USC will throw at them tonight.
Friday Bowl Leans
Lean (235/236) Washington St/Air Force OVER 68.5. 10:15pm ET.
Small Lean (230) Wake Forest +4 over Michigan St. 3:20pm ET.
Small Lean (232) Texas A&M -4.5 over Oklahoma St. 6:45pm ET
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INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
4* UNC-5.5 NCAAFB
3* USA/Iowa OVER 51.5 NCAAFB
3* Warriors+3 NBA
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NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
4* Wake Forest+3.5 NCAAFB
3* WSU/Air Force OVER 68 NCAAFB
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Primetime Sports Picks For 12/27/19
4 Unit --> North Carolina -5.5 over Temple (NCAAF)
3 Unit --> Coppin St. +5 over Mount St. Marys (NCAAB)
3 Unit --> U.S.C. +2.5 over Iowa (NCAAF)
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Dwayne Bryant
3% iowa ml
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Spartan
3* - Iowa
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PGF 4% is temple
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Pro Info Sports
PI NCAAF: 5.5-STAR USC Trojans +2.5 v. Iowa Hawkeyes 8est
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
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Red Dog Sports
NBA
3* #551 Milwaukee -11
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NORTHCOAST:
4 North Carolina -5.5
3 Over 68.5 Washington St/Air Force
Top Opinions:
Oklahoma St +4.5
Iowa -2.5
Regular Opinions:
Over 54 North Carolina/Temple
Under 50 Michigan St/Wake Forest
Over 53.5 Oklahoma St/Texas A&M
Under 52.5 USC/Iowa
Wake Forest +4
Washington St +2.5
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BLAZER:
4 Wake Forest +3.5
3 USC -2
3 Oklahoma St +4.5
3 Washington St +2.5
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College Football(BOB BALFE) VIP
6:45 PM EST
Rotation #231-232
Oklahoma State/Texas A&M Over 53
The Aggies will be without Justin Madukbuike tonight as he is resting for the NFL Draft. This is a front seven that doesn’t really scare you and I am not so sure they will be able to stop Chuba Hubbard running the ball. The Cowboys of Oklahoma State are in that same boat with their own front seven and in the secondary will be without Kolby Harvel-Peel tonight. Kellen Mond is a duel threat QB that should move the chains tonight. Both teams are better with on the offensive side of the trenches and should have no problem putting up points. Look for a high scoring back and forth contest. Take the Over.
College Football
8:45 PM EST
Rotation #233-234
Iowa -2 over USC
USC has the best wide receiver talent in the game and that might work against PAC 12 schools, but this Iowa team is well coached and great on defense. Kedon Slovis has not played enough games in his career to be ready for a defense like this. This is a Trojans team that was really banged up this year on defense and has not played as a unit with the same players all season. This team is penalized like crazy where Iowa does not commit penalties. The Hawkeyes are a lunch pal workmen like squad that will make you pay for any little mistake. Nate Stanley will be in his final game today and I expect this offense to put up points against a weaker USC Defense. This is a senior with a ton of experience playing against a freshman who will be incredible later on his career, but this team is predictable and Iowa will be ready for them. USC doesn’t have the ability to adjust in game like the Hawkeyes. Veteran leadership and coaching will win this game. Take Iowa.
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Jack Winningham
NHL
LA Kings +127
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Miller locks
3:20 pm est ncaaf
michigan state vs. Wake forest
pick: Wake forest +4 (-107)
risk: 11 units
6:45 pm est ncaaf
oklahoma state vs. Texas a & m
pick: Oklahoma state +5 (-108)
risk: 11 units
8:05 pm est ncaaf
usc vs. Iowa
pick: Usc +2.5 (-110)
risk: 11 units
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NFAC
Nfac -
228) Temple +6...($750)
236) Air Force ML (-135)...($750)
232) Texas A&M -4...($600)
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Larry Hartstein
Cleveland Cavaliers +13.5
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MTI
5-Star Bucks at Hawks OVER 238
4.5-Star Thunder at Hornets UNDER 208.5
4-Star Sixers at Magic UNDER 209.5
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Brandon Lang
100 Dimes - Iowa -2, 8:00 PM EST
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WORLDS WORST PICKER
Peabodys Super Picks: Oklahoma State, Washington State
Play On: Texas A&M Air Force
Peabodys Regular Picks: UNC, Michigan State, Iowa
Play On: Temple, Wake Forest, USC
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Josh Nagel
SENIOR ANALYST
11:35 AM
WAKE FOREST +3.5
MICHIGAN ST. VS WAKE FOREST | 12/27 | 3:20 PM EST
PINSTRIPE BOWL -- The Spartans might be the biggest underachiever among Power Five programs. They needed to beat Rutgers and Maryland just to become bowl-eligible, and spent most of the year looking lifeless under coach Mark Dantonio. Wake Forest stumbled down the stretch a bit, with losses in three of its last four. But if the Deacons play osmewhere near their best, they should win this one.
70-56-3 IN LAST 129 CFB PICKS | +788
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Stephen Dangelo
50 DIME
College Bowl Game of the Year
Wake forest
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Josh Nagel
IOWA -2.5
USC VS IOWA | 12/27 | 8:00 PM EST
11:40 AM
HOLIDAY BOWL -- Those who still criticize Iowa for an outdated or boring brand of football clearly haven't seen the Hawkeyes play much over the past few years. They are throwing on early downs more often and generally have more balance. Iowa has an experienced, senior QB in Nathan Stanley and should have the edge over an improving but youthful USC club.
70-56-3 IN LAST 129 CFB PICKS | +788
4-0 IN LAST 4 USC ATS PICKS | +400
8-4 IN LAST 12 IOWA ATS PICKS | +358
WAKE FOREST +3.5
MICHIGAN ST. VS WAKE FOREST | 12/27 | 3:20 PM EST
11:35 AM
PINSTRIPE BOWL -- The Spartans might be the biggest underachiever among Power Five programs. They needed to beat Rutgers and Maryland just to become bowl-eligible, and spent most of the year looking lifeless under coach Mark Dantonio. Wake Forest stumbled down the stretch a bit, with losses in three of its last four. But if the Deacons play osmewhere near their best, they should win this one.
70-56-3 IN LAST 129 CFB PICKS | +788
TEMPLE +6
NORTH CAROLINA VS TEMPLE | 12/27 | 12:00 PM EST
11:30 AM
MILITARY BOWL -- Temple has a poor recent bowl history, and there is some concern in this one because North Carolina will have a decided coaching edge. But the bottom line is the value is with the underdog, which could be the better team. The Owls came up just short of the AAC title game but have a sturdy defense and a veteran-laden club. The Tar Heels overachieved this season but are a bit overvalued in this spread.
70-56-3 IN LAST 129 CFB PICKS | +788
6-2 IN LAST 8 TEMPLE ATS PICKS | +375
2-0-1 IN LAST 3 UNC ATS PICKS | +200
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Sam Quinn
MILWAUKEE -11.5
MILWAUKEE @ ATLANTA | 12/27 | 7:30 PM EST
1:38 PM
Milwaukee is undefeated against teams below .500. That doesn't even do the Bucks' losses justice. The five teams that have beaten them are a combined 105-47. Meanwhile, they are 12-0 against teams currently in the bottom five of the East and are winning those games by an average of 18.3 points. Yes, an 11.5-point spread on the road is hard to swallow, especially when the Hawks have played the Bucks relatively closely in the past, but Khris Middleton played only 20 matchups in their first two matchups combined. With him fully healthy, this should be yet another walkover for the Bucks even with Giannis Antetokounmpo dealing with back pain.
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Mike Barner
Dec NBA ATS 19-19
CHARLOTTE +3
OKLAHOMA CITY @ CHARLOTTE | 12/27 | 7:00 PM EST
12:23 PM
This is a tough spot for the Thunder. They just played at home Thursday and lost to the Grizzlies by 13. Playing without Danilo Gallinari (ankle) didn't help their cause. He’s going to be out again here, further depleting their already thin depth chart. Meanwhile, the Hornets will likely be getting P.J. Washington (finger) back from his five-game absence. I think the Hornets can win this game, so give me the points.
35-22 IN LAST 57 NBA ATS PICKS | +1079
6-0 IN LAST 6 CHA ATS PICKS | +600
3-1 IN LAST 4 OKC ATS PICKS | +190
MIAMI -4
INDIANA @ MIAMI | 12/27 | 8:00 PM EST
12:20 PM
The Heat have been one of the best home teams in the league, posting an 11-3 mark ATS. Meanwhile, the Pacers are only 7-7 ATS on the road and could be without the services of Malcolm Brogdon (groin), who sat out Monday against the Raptors and is listed as a game-time decision for this contest. If he sits, the Heat could easily cover. Even if he does play, I like the Heat’s chances of covering based on their excellent track record at home.
35-22 IN LAST 57 NBA ATS PICKS | +1079
7-5 IN LAST 12 IND ATS PICKS | +151
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Seabass
600 temple, 600 temple game over, 200 Mich State, 800 A&M, 400 A&M Over,
1000 USA, (Usc Under Opinion), 400 Wash State Over, (Was St Opinion)
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