Monday 1/13/20 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & NBA games.
Barrett Sallee
CFB GURU
TUE 12/31
CLEMSON +5
CLEMSON VS LSU | 1/13 | 8:00 PM EST
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME -- It's hard to pick against LSU, but Clemson has played the disrespect card so well and I don't think that will change despite this being a pseudo-home game for the Bayou Bengals in New Orleans. The Clemson offensive line has been stellar all season and will prevent LSU's loaded front seven from getting into the backfield and disrupting quarterback Trevor Lawrence's rhythm. Much like in the Fiesta Bowl, the defenses will be better than expected, the Under will hit and Clemson will win its third national championship in four seasons.
59-33-2 IN LAST 94 CFB PICKS | +2247
6-1 IN LAST 7 LSU ATS PICKS | +490
4-0 IN LAST 4 CLEM ATS PICKS | +400
Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
MON 12/30
LSU -5.5
CLEMSON VS LSU | 1/13 | 8:00 PM EST
CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP -- It's obviously difficult to defend against LSU's passing game, but not where you think. Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow is a big talent, but it's the team's receiving corps that causes the problems. Normally, teams don't have three No. 1-type corners to match up across the board. LSU has three legitimate No. 1 wideouts, along with a good receiving TE and RB. That makes the squad very difficult to stop.
115-77-2 IN LAST 194 CFB ATS PICKS | +3094
6-3-1 IN LAST 10 CLEM ATS PICKS | +264
4-2-1 IN LAST 7 LSU ATS PICKS | +180
__________________
DR. CHUCK NCAAF
Game: (283) CLEMSON at (284) LSU
Date/Time: Jan 13 2020 8:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: CLEMSON 6.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Disclaimer: Apparently this line is going to potentially expand....kooky talk...might as well wait and see if 7 appears I guess....still hard to imagine how Clemson isn't Belichick/Brady and LSU is Goff/McVay but whatever....take what you're given!
This is just too obvious...and I am already nervous it won't last...I also am a big Joe Burrow fan and they've had an amazing season...but I never once bought that Clemson was "untested" or that the ACC was something akin to like the AAC or some crazy shit.
The advantage of Dabo over EdO is hard to quantify as a single number....but I'd say roughly this is the symbolic representation:
__________________
Bill Marzano
VETERAN HANDICAPPER
YESTERDAY 9:28 AM
OVER 69.5
CLEMSON VS LSU | 1/13 | 8:00 PM EST
CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP -- With so many great matchups and a plethora of talent on both sides of the ball, you have to believe it is going to be a high-scoring game. LSU averages 49 points while Clemson is at 45. QBs Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence are going to put on a show with their arms and legs. LSU was the first team in history with a 5,000 yard passer, a 1,000 yard rusher and two 1,000 yard receivers. LSU's secondary is its weakest link and will be facing its toughest test to date with Clemson's ability to run and pass. Clemson is No. 1 in scoring defense and pass defense, but I expect LSU to make huge plays, as it has all season.
44-26 IN LAST 70 CFB PICKS | +1504
YESTERDAY 9:22 AM
CLEMSON +5.5
CLEMSON VS LSU | 1/13 | 8:00 PM EST
CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP -- Not only do I think Clemson covers the spread, but it has more than an excellent chance to win outright. Clemson has won 29 straight games overall, Trevor Lawrence is 25-0 at QB and he is playing his best football right now. LSU QB Joe Burrow is going to be tested by an aggressive defense. Clemson has a great running game and some really good receivers that are going to make some big plays against LSU’s main weakness - its pass defense. LSU has the edge in the kicking game, but give the edge to Clemson on special teams.
44-26 IN LAST 70 CFB PICKS | +1504
__________________
Marc Lawrence
CFB Championship Game 4* Clemson + 6
__________________
Stanford Steve Coughlin's Championship Game
Monday 13th:
Clemson +6
Bowls record as of January 5th:
4-6
__________________
Pointwise phones
2- lsu
__________________
Norm Hitzges
Clemson +5.5 (Double Play)
Clemson-LSU over 69.5 (Single Play)
__________________
Josh Nagel
SENIOR ANALYST
FRI 1/10
UNDER 69.5
CLEMSON VS LSU | 1/13 | 8:00 PM EST
CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP -- Let's lock this in before it drops much further, which I'm projecting will happen before kickoff. The top-ranked Clemson defense allowed just 23 to an explosive Ohio State team, the most points the Tigers have yielded all season. LSU's top-ranked offense is super explosive, but Clemson should be able to get more stops than most. This is just way too much wiggle room on the total -- a clunky first quarter amid high nerves practically guarantees an Under. A high-scoring final such as 35-31 still gets us there.
81-61-3 IN LAST 145 CFB PICKS | +1336
3-1 IN LAST 4 CLEM O/U PICKS | +190
__________________
Tom Fornelli
#TRUSTTHEPROCESS
FRI 1/10
UNDER 69.5
CLEMSON VS LSU | 1/13 | 8:00 PM EST
The 23 points Clemson allowed against Ohio State in the semifinal were the most its allowed all season long. That Ohio State offense scored more points per game during the regular season than this LSU offense. I'm not saying Clemson is going to stop LSU, because it isn't, but this total is too high. LSU's performance against Oklahoma has skewed it. Take the Under.
29-21-1 IN LAST 51 CFB O/U PICKS | +580
FRI 1/10
LSU -6
CLEMSON VS LSU | 1/13 | 8:00 PM EST
If we're going by the metrics there's not a whole hell of a lot that separates these teams. Some prefer LSU, others prefer Clemson, but none prefer one by too much. So Clemson might seems like the logical play, but I'm on LSU because screw logic. LSU has been the story of the 2019 season all year long and I'm not going to be the guy picking against it in the title game. Particularly when it's being played in New Orleans. Clemson is great, but LSU is something else entirely this season.
3-0 IN LAST 3 CFB PICKS | +300
__________________
Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
WED 1/8
CLEMSON +5.5
CLEMSON VS LSU | 1/13 | 8:00 PM EST
CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP -- I’ve been amazed with LSU and QB Joe Burrow all season, but giving Clemson this amount of points is just insane. But it’s reality because the public in Las Vegas is laying the inflated number at an 82 percent clip in tickets bet so far. It's what they saw last. Clemson was -1 in an early line before the semifinal game, then LSU buried an Oklahoma squad they were supposed to while laying 13 and Clemson beat Ohio State, which many smart people had as the top-rated team in the land. I’ll take the big-stage experience of Clemson and the gift points in a game that at most should be LSU -1.5.
8-6 IN LAST 14 CFB PICKS | +156
3-2 IN LAST 5 LSU ATS PICKS | +81
__________________
Double Dragon
13 UNIT HYDRA Clemson -6
__________________
Overunderexpert
TIMES PACIFIC
CFB 5 PM #283
Clemson LSU
UNDER 69.5 -105
repost of 1/4/20 release
At 5 Dimes 306 AM 1/4/20 ---
NHL 4 PM # 69
Calgary Montreal
UNDER 6 -115
Line from 5 Dimes & Fanduel 102 AM -------
CBB 1 PM #309981
Jackson St Southern
OVER 132. -110
Line from William Hill Las Vegas 133 AM
---------------
CBB 4pm # 1983
Boston Loyola MD
UNDER 143 -110
Line from5 Dimes 145 AM
---------
CBB 430 PM #309989
South Carolina St Howard
UNDER 147 -110
Will Hill Las Vegas 202 AM
--------------------------
CBB 430 PM #1991
NC Central MD Eastern Shore
OVER 126 -110
Line From Will Hill Las Vegas 211 AM
-------------------
CBB 530 PM # 1999
Arkansas Pine Bluff Alabama State
OVER 124.5 -110
Line from 5 Dimes College Extra 237 AM
__________________
Virgobbi Sports
CFB nat'l championship:
Clem +5.5 (-111) - 1u
clem ml (+181) - 0.5u
__________________
machinespicks
hammer play 25 units Clemson
__________________
Bezobets
NCAA Football: Clemson +6 @ 1.872/-115 (5 Units
__________________
Freddy Wills has released a premium pick. The play is on, Clemson +5.5 5.5% NCAAF POD.
__________________
Wayne Root
Pinnacle
Clemson
__________________
Mike Barner
OKLAHOMA CITY -2.5
OKLAHOMA CITY @ MINNESOTA | 1/13 | 8:00 PM EST
12:25 PM
The Thunder have been one of the best teams in the league on the road, where they are 14-5 ATS. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are 5-11-1 ATS at home and still don’t know if Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) will return after missing the previous 13 contests. I think this game has plenty of blowout potential, so I’ll definitely take the Thunder to cover this small line.
49-30 IN LAST 79 NBA ATS PICKS | +1604
8-3 IN LAST 11 MIN ATS PICKS | +462
3-1 IN LAST 4 OKC ATS PICKS | +191
CHARLOTTE +9.5
CHARLOTTE @ PORTLAND | 1/13 | 10:00 PM EST
12:21 PM
Things have been ugly for the Trail Blazers, who have lost eight of their last 10 games. They are just 16-24 this season, which puts them two games out of the final playoff spot in the West. They are 8-10 at home overall and 6-11-1 ATS there. I like the Hornets to at least keep this game close, so give me the points.
49-30 IN LAST 79 NBA ATS PICKS | +1604
8-0 IN LAST 8 CHA ATS PICKS | +800
6-4 IN LAST 10 POR ATS PICKS | +160
__________________
SkyBluePicks
Clemson +6
__________________
Dr Bob
Clemson 1* +6
Strong Opinion UNDER 69
__________________
From Northcoast group of handicappers:
------------------------------------
Jim Feist
NBA
3* #559 New Orleans +1
------------------------------------
Accu Picks
NBA
3* #564 Minnesota +2.5
LV Wolf
Clemson + 5.5
__________________
ELITE SPORTS PICKS
Clemson+5.5 NCAAFB
INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
4* Alabama A&M-13.5 NCAABB
3* Clemson+5.5 NCAAFB
NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
4* Florida A&M-5 NCAABB
3* Clemson/LSU UNDER 67.5 NCAAFB
PRIMETIME SPORTS PICKS
4 Unit --> Florida A&M -5 over Coppin St. (NCAAB)
3 Unit --> Clemson/L.S.U. UNDER 67.5 (NFL)
3 Unit --> Montana -6 over Portland St. (NCAAB)
__________________
Las vegas pipeline
100 lsu -
__________________
Miller locks
8:05 pm est ncaab
clemson vs. Lsu
pick: Clemson +5 (-109)
risk: 11 units
9:00 pm est ncaab
portland state vs. Montana
pick: Montana -6.5 (-118)
risk: 11 units
10:35 pm est nba
cleveland cavaliers vs. Los angeles lakers
pick: Los angeles lakers -14 (-102)
risk: 11 units
__________________
Dwayne Bryant
3% Clemson +5.5 (playable to +5)
__________________
WUnderdog
NBA
new orleans +3 @detroit.
__________________
Jim Feist
NBA game of the day
Pelicans
__________________
Brandon Lang
200 DIME
-MAX WAGER-
COLLEGE CHAMPIONSHIP
- 200 dimes on Clemson +5
__________________
Mike Barner
INDIANA -2
PHILADELPHIA @ INDIANA | 1/13 | 7:00 PM EST
12:34 PM
The Sixers have been downright dominant with their 18-2 record at home, but they are an unsightly 7-13 on the road. Further complicating their efforts to get a road win Monday will be the absence of center Joel Embiid (finger). They’ve played twice since he went down, beating the Celtics by 11 points at home and losing to the Mavericks by 18 points on the road. The Pacers are dealing with their own injury issues, but based on how poorly the Sixers have played on the road, look for the Pacers to cover.
49-30 IN LAST 79 NBA ATS PICKS | +1604
9-7 IN LAST 16 IND ATS PICKS | +133
3-2 IN LAST 5 PHI ATS PICKS | +80
__________________
Power Play Wins
Clemson +5.5
__________________
Micah Roberts
INDIANA -2
PHILADELPHIA @ INDIANA | 1/13 | 7:00 PM EST
2:19 PM
The last time the 76ers faced the Pacers was on New Year’s eve and Joel Embiid didn’t play resulting in a 115-97 home win for Indiana. It wasn’t really that close, with the Pacers controlling the first three quarters. The Sixers have lost five of their last seven and Embiid is out again Monday. The Pacers are 15-5 at home this season. Back the Pacers to get the cover.
9-4 IN LAST 13 NBA PICKS | +460
12-9 IN LAST 21 PHI ATS PICKS | +226
__________________
Larry Hartstein
OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5
OKLAHOMA CITY @ MINNESOTA | 1/13 | 8:00 PM EST
4:00 PM
I agree with this line move. Look for a very focused effort from the Thunder after they came up short against the Lakers. OKC has covered 10 of its last 11 road games and seven straight overall off a double-digit loss. Lay it.
47-34-1 IN LAST 82 NBA ATS PICKS | +970
32-21 IN LAST 53 OKC ATS PICKS | +945
11-5 IN LAST 16 MIN ATS PICKS | +551
NEW ORLEANS +3.5
NEW ORLEANS @ DETROIT | 1/13 | 7:00 PM EST
2:21 PM
This line has swung and now there's value on the road dog. New Orleans was playing well until it got killed Saturday on the second night of a back-to-back at Boston. As it is, the Pelicans have won seven of 10 (8-1-1 ATS) and have covered four straight when coming off a straight-up loss. Detroit is 1-7 ATS in its last eight at home and shouldn't be laying this many points.
47-34-1 IN LAST 82 NBA ATS PICKS | +970
42-27 IN LAST 69 NO ATS PICKS | +1263
33-25-1 IN LAST 59 DET ATS PICKS | +602
__________________
John Bollman
WASHINGTON -138
CAROLINA @ WASHINGTON | 1/13 | 7:00 PM EST
12:52 PM
The Caps are 13-5-4 at home this season while the Canes are just 12-8-2 on the road this season. Ilya Samsonov is starting for the Caps tonight, he is 12-2-1 this season with a 2.24 GAA and .921 save percentage. These teams have played three times already this season and all have been close. Expect the Caps to pull this one out at home.
12-1 IN LAST 13 NHL PICKS | +1101
11-5 IN LAST 16 WAS ML PICKS | +429
__________________
Marco DeAngelo CFB
3% Clemson 5.5
__________________
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Monday, Jan 13 2020 8:00PM
283 Clemson 5.0(-110) William Hill vs 284 LSU single-dime bet
Analysis: 1-star (283) Clemson +5 over LSU. 8:00pm ET. If you only had to make one bet tonight. This would be it.
We just feel this is a classic overreaction to what the public just saw last. Before the semifinals one sports book at Clemson -1, one book had LSU -1. Our power ratings had the game at “Pick” (Clemson 103.5, LSU 101) after you give LSU 2.5-points of HFA for playing in the Super Dome. We downgraded Clemson 1-point for their performance against Ohio St even though they won and covered. On the other side, we upgraded LSU 2-points for crushing Oklahoma (our pure power ratings now have LSU -3). Even going through the position-by-position breakdown we can only get LSU to -3.5. Therefore we feel there is value on Clemson here. Remarkably, there’s been value on them all season as Clemson is two FG’s away from being 13-1 ATS! Remember, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney in the post-season since 2012 is 9-2 SU (+12.1 ppg) and 10-1 ATS (+14.2 ppg) with Clemson being an underdog in 9 of those 11 games. While LSU QB Joe Burrow has deservedly gotten all the love from the media note that Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence has 22-0 TD-INT ratio since October 26th.The underdog has covered in 6 straight Championship games and this is the longest gap in between the semifinals and the championship game in the 6-year history of the CFB Playoff. Advantage Clemson in that they were in that war vs Ohio State.
Small Lean (283/284) Clemson/LSU UNDER 67.5. 8:00pm ET. Bigger, sharper money came in on UNDER today.
Props: (Bet these as leans):
Trevor Lawrence OVER 21.5 (-120) completions.
Will Clemson RB Travis Etienne score a TD? Yes -300...He's scored in 11 straight games. I think this line should be -500.
Longest TD of game: OVER 62.5 yards.
Longest completion by Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence OVER 50.5 Yards. Lawrence is 9-5 to the OVER at this number this season including 4 straight games with at least one 51-yard pass. This coincides with the prop above.
__________________
Andre Gomes
Clemson +5
Kings Over 211
Celts -10
__________________
Goodfella
3* CFB CHAMPIONSHIP GOM
Clemson +6
__________________
The Prez
5% LSU-5 (Good up to -7)
__________________
Marco/Sports Unlimited NBA
3% Minnesota +3.5
__________________