Monday 1/6/20 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & NBA games.
Dave Essler
* NBA (3*) Triple Max Bet Total *
UTA/NOP U223
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Emory Hunt
LOUISIANA -14
LOUISIANA VS MIAMI (OHIO) | 1/06 | 7:30 PM EST
LENDING TREE BOWL -- The Ragin' Cajuns have one of the best rushing attacks in college football, and go three-deep in the backfield. Although they'll be without stud right guard Robert Hunt, the rest of the OL unit remains in tact. Offensively, Miami is a year away from being truly dangerous. The RedHawks' inexperience will show itself here. Lay the points.
115-77-2 IN LAST 194 CFB ATS PICKS | +3094
10-5 IN LAST 15 LALAF ATS PICKS | +444
6-2 IN LAST 8 MIAOH ATS PICKS | +380
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John Bollman
WINNIPEG +128
WINNIPEG @ MONTREAL | 1/06 | 7:00 PM EST
The Jets have been struggling lately, but they are better on the road at 12-7-2 this season. The Canadiens have also been struggling recently, but they are just 8-9-4 at home on the season. The Jets have the goalie advantage with Hellebuyck in net, he is sporting a 2.71 with a .919 save percentage this season, while Carey Price has a 3.00 GAA and .902 save percentage. This game should be closer to a toss-up, take the value in the Jets at plus money.
3-0 IN LAST 3 NHL PICKS | +308
4-2 IN LAST 6 WPG ML PICKS | +262
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TONY FINN
FINNs MONDAY NBA PRIVATE PLAY
Game: (543) Utah Jazz at (544) New Orleans Pelicans
Date/Time: Jan 6 2020 8:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Utah Jazz -130
View Analysis
PLAY: Utah Jazz on the money-line -130 (if you do not have money-line options at your book -2 is cthe current numb er but it is good to -5)
4% confidence rating
(543) Utah Jazz at (544) New Orleans Pelicans
Game analysis posted shortly
UTAH JAZZ -130
FINNs ESPN CBB GAME of the WEEK
Game: (863) West Virginia at (864) Oklahoma State
Date/Time: Jan 6 2020 9:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: West Virginia -1.5 (-106)
View Analysis
PLAY: West Virginia Mountaineers -1.5 (good to -5)
4% confidence rating
(863) West Virginia at (864) Oklahoma State
Check back... game day analysis published shortly
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS -1.5
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KEVIN DOLAN BASKETBALL PLAYS
5% NBA GAME OF THE WEEK (ULTRA-RARE!)
Game: (535) Indiana Pacers at (536) Charlotte Hornets
Date/Time: Jan 6 2020 7:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Indiana Pacers -5.0 (-110)
View Analysis
We like the Indiana Pacers tonight to blow out the Charlotte Hornets on the road and easily cover the number in this one.
Hot Takes
- The Hornets return home on Monday night after back to back wins against the Cavs and Mavericks on the road, two very impressive wins for a team who had lost seven of their previous eight games in total. However, both of these wins came in huge 4th Q comebacks for the Hornets and we just don't see them being able to continue those runs here against a team as fundamentally talented as the Pacers.
- Indiana meanwhile have dropped four of their last five games in total and all four of their last four road games, so these are troubling times for Nate McMillan and the rest of the Indiana coaching set-up. The Pacers defensive efficiency metrics have dipped considerably in recent games, going from a top ten team in the league overall to 23rd over their last three games. We believe they get back to form tonight however as they face a team in Charlotte who struggle offensively despite the two recent wins, ranking 25th and 28th in the league respectively on overall ppg and shooting %.
- The Hornets are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when facing a team with a .600 or greater winning percentage and just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games at home.
Take the Indiana Pacers to get the win and cover on the road in Charlotte on Monday.
PLAY: INDIANA PACERS -5
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
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Great Lake Sports
NBA
3* #543 Utah -3
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Accu Picks
NBA
3* #542 Atlanta +8.5
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Wunderdog NBA Pick:
Game: Utah Jazz (543) @ New Orleans Pelicans (544)
Time: Monday 01/06 8:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Utah -3 (-105) at 5dimes
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ELITE SPORTS PICKS
West Virginia-1.5 NCAABB
INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
4* LA Lafayette+9.5 NCAABB
3* Charlotte+5 NBA
3* LA Lafayette-14 NCAAFB
NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
4* Arkansas LR-2 NCAABB
3* Miami-Ohio/LA Lafayette OVER 54.5 NCAAFB
PRIMETIME SPORTS PICKS
4 Unit --> Louisiana-Lafayette +9.5 over Appalachian St. (NCAAB)
3 Unit --> Brooklyn +5 over Orlando (NBA)
3 Unit --> Miami-Ohio/Louisiana-Lafayette OVER 54.5 (NCAAF)
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DWAYNE BRYANT BASKETBALL PLAYS
65% RUN: NBA TOTALS SYSTEM $$$$$
Game: (535) Indiana Pacers at (536) Charlotte Hornets
Date/Time: Jan 6 2020 7:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 208.5 (-110)
View Analysis
7:05 PM ET -- NBA
535 Indiana Pacers
536 Charlotte Hornets
PLAY --> UNDER 208.5
Playable down to 207
BET SIZE --> 3%
My NBA totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data (using Hollinger's ratings for pace and offensive & defensive efficiency), history involving similar games (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
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Mississippi Kid
Mixed Parlay 2U
NCAAF/Italy Soccer
UL Lafayette ML/Inter Milan vs Napoli Over 2.5
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WORLDS WORST PICKER
NCAABB
Peabodys Regular Picks: South Alabama Arkansas State
Play On: UT Arlington Georgia State
NCAAFB Bowl
Peabodys Super Picks: Miami Ohio
Play On: UL Lafayette
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Jim feist nba
Gow
Utah -3
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Mike Barner
Jazz -3
Magic -5
Bulls +9.5
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Fezzik
UTA/NOP U220 for 3*
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Miller locks
7:30 pm est ncaab
norfolk state vs. Coppin state
pick: Under 140.5 (-115)
risk: 11 unitsbet now!
7:30 pm est ncaaf
miami ohio vs. Ul lafayette
pick: Ul lafayette -14 (-107)
risk: 11 unitsbet now!
8:05 pm est nba
utah jazz vs. New orleans pelicans
pick: New orleans pelicans +4.5 (-104)
risk: 11 units
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The Machine
NBA:
Jazz -3 *10 units*
NCAAB:
Appalachian State -7.5 *10 units*
Leans:
Texas-Arlington -6
NCAAF:
Miami (OH) +14.5 *10 units*
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Wayne Root
Mill- WVU
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Greg Shaker | CBB Total - Monday, Jan 6 2020 8:00PM
857 South Alabama / 858 Texas-Arlington UNDER142.0 5dimes triple-dime bet
We love the UNDER here and we do love it at 137 or better.
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Silky Sullivan Avalanche under NHL
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Bob Valentino
150 DIME
Miami-Ohio RedHawks plus the points over the UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns. At 7:15 am eastern time, Miami-Ohio U is +14 points in Vegas and offshore.
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Seabass bowl : 400 Miami Ohio
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Mike Barner
Jazz -3
Magic -5
Bulls +9.5
UTAH -3
UTAH @ NEW ORLEANS | 1/06 | 8:00 PM EST
3:01 PM
This is a pretty reasonable line when you consider the Jazz have won 10 of their last 11 games. The Pelicans have also been hot, winning five of their last six. They haven’t been cheap wins, either, considering they took down the Nuggets, Pacers and Rockets during that stretch. The key injury in this game could be Jrue Holiday (elbow), who is listed as questionable. If he were to sit, that would be a huge loss for the Pelicans. Even if he does play, I’ll take the Jazz to cover based on how well they are playing.
42-27 IN LAST 69 NBA ATS PICKS | +1233
7-4-1 IN LAST 12 NO ATS PICKS | +259
3-1 IN LAST 4 UTA ATS PICKS | +190
ORLANDO -5
BROOKLYN @ ORLANDO | 1/06 | 7:00 PM EST
1:14 PM
The Nets have lost their last five games, including disappointing defeats at the hands of the Knicks and Timberwolves. They have decided to rest Caris LeVert for this contest, further compromising their depth chart. Although the Magic are dealing with a big loss of their own in Jonathan Isaac (knee), I like their chances of covering at home behind Nikola Vucevic, who is averaging 20.2 points, 9.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists across their last 11 games.
42-27 IN LAST 69 NBA ATS PICKS | +1233
11-8-1 IN LAST 20 ORL ATS PICKS | +216
4-2 IN LAST 6 BKN ATS PICKS | +181
CHICAGO +9.5
CHICAGO @ DALLAS | 1/06 | 8:30 PM EST
1:12 PM
This will be a matchup between two teams that will likely be without their starting power forwards. Kristaps Porzingis (knee) has already been ruled out for the Mavericks, while Lauri Markkanen (ankle) is doubtful for the Bulls. Porzingis has missed the last three games for the Mavericks, two of which were losses. Their last game was particularly alarming since they lost at home to the Hornets. The Mavericks are just 7-11 ATS at home this season, so I’ll take the points.
42-27 IN LAST 69 NBA ATS PICKS | +1233
14-7 IN LAST 21 CHI ATS PICKS | +628
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Larry Hartstein
DENVER -7.5
DENVER @ ATLANTA | 1/06 | 7:30 PM EST
6:14 PM
I think we're getting value here on a Nuggets team that got embarrassed last time out. With the Hawks coming off a surprising performance, look for Atlanta to fall to 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS win. Lay it.
42-26-1 IN LAST 69 NBA ATS PICKS | +1352
18-6 IN LAST 24 ATL ATS PICKS | +1138
35-24-3 IN LAST 62 DEN ATS PICKS | +865
UTAH -3
UTAH @ NEW ORLEANS | 1/06 | 8:00 PM EST
12:33 PM
The Pelicans are playing well, having won six of eight, thanks in part to Lonzo Ball's recent excellence. But I think they get a reality check tonight versus a Utah team that's won 10 of 11 and has lofty aspirations. The Jazz are still getting reasonable lines despite covering seven straight games, not to mention five in a row on the road. Lay it.
42-26-1 IN LAST 69 NBA ATS PICKS | +1352
42-25 IN LAST 67 NO ATS PICKS | +1482
8-3 IN LAST 11 UTA ATS PICKS | +468
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Tom Fornelli
#TRUSTTHEPROCESS
3:07 PM
UNDER 55
LOUISIANA VS MIAMI (OHIO) | 1/06 | 7:30 PM EST
LENDINGTREE BOWL -- The way these two teams match up with one another suggests to me that we're not going to see a lot of explosive offense. ULL's offense is based on its rushing attack, but the Miami run defense has been solid this year. Miami's offense is plain bad, and it's awful in the red zone, which is an area Louisiana's defense has been quite strong. So, add it all up, and I don't see a shootout developing in the final bowl game of the season.
28-21-1 IN LAST 50 CFB O/U PICKS | +480
Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
11:31 AM
MIAMI (OHIO) +14
LOUISIANA VS MIAMI (OHIO) | 1/06 | 7:30 PM EST
LENDINGTREE BOWL -- Only with extenuating circumstances should a second- or third-tier bowl be assigned such a large line. Though Louisiana’s offense is potent, Miami counters with a decent defense, highlighted by 38 sacks this season. The Redhawks were overrun by a challenging non-MAC schedule, then won six of their last seven straight-up while going 5-2 ATS.
4-2 IN LAST 6 LALAF ATS PICKS | +175
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Maddux
NBA
10 Brooklyn/Orlando over 210
CBB
10 857 South Alabama +6.5
10 864 Oklahoma State +2
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PickersMx
La Barba
75 Dimes
Grambling St -8.5
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Michael Rusk
SACRAMENTO -10.5
GOLDEN ST. @ SACRAMENTO | 1/06 | 10:00 PM EST
2:12 PM
This game shouldn’t be close considering all of Golden State's injuries. The spread seems large, but the Warriors simply don’t have the healthy talent to keep up with any team. The Kings were a five-point favorite in their meeting on Dec. 15 and won by 21. Look for a similar margin of victory in this one.
9-1 IN LAST 10 NBA PICKS | +792
2-1 IN LAST 3 SAC ATS PICKS | +92
2-1 IN LAST 3 GS ATS PICKS | +90
DENVER -7.5
DENVER @ ATLANTA | 1/06 | 7:30 PM EST
2:07 PM
The Nuggets have covered the spread just once in their last eight games. Atlanta is coming off what could be its biggest win of the season as it defeated Indiana while being almost a double-digit underdog. I like the Hawks to regress hard against the 24-11 Nuggets. I expect Denver to outplay this young Atlanta team on both sides of the court from start to finish.
9-1 IN LAST 10 NBA PICKS | +792
PHILADELPHIA -7.5
OKLAHOMA CITY @ PHILADELPHIA | 1/06 | 7:00 PM EST
2:02 PM
The Thunder have been on an absolute tear, winning nine of their last 10 overall and winning outright in their last three games as underdogs. The 76ers went winless on a four-game road trip after defeating Milwaukee at home on Christmas Day. I like Philadelphia to dominate this game and start a winning streak as it plays four of its next six at home.
9-1 IN LAST 10 NBA PICKS | +792
4-1 IN LAST 5 OKC ATS PICKS | +290
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