Monday 12/30/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & NBA games.
POINTWISE PHONES
4- Florida
2- Illinois
__________________
King Creole
CFB Monday 3* Bowl OU PLAY
Over 54.5 Virginia/Florida
__________________
Date Expert Rating Game Play
Dec 30 Ralph Michaels 3% [CFB] (245) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (246) Western Kentucky
Time: 12:30 PM EST WESTERN MICHIGAN 3.5 (-114)
Analysis:
3% Western Michigan +3.5
__________________
FINNs REDBOX BOWL 5% BIG TICKET
Game249) ILLINOIS at (250) CALIFORNIA
Date/Time: Dec 30 2019 4:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: CALIFORNIA -6.0 (-110)
View Analysis
PLAY: Cal Golden Bears -6 (good to -7)
4% confidence rating
(249) ILLINOIS at (250) CALIFORNIA
The Bears (7-5) are in their second straight holiday bowl event and square off against the Fighting Illini (6-6) who are playing in their first bowl game since 2014
Cal lost to TCU in last year's Cheez-It Bowl -- a game that was a snooze-fest for those that watch football for offensive action. Last season's Cheez-game was in one of the lowest-scoring bowl games in the last 25 years. Illinois head coach Lovie Smith is on the verge of having his first winning season as the Illini bench boss.
This isn't being labeled as such but all things transparent it is... a home game for California. The Golden Bears have the versatility to be whomever they want on offense. They have a pair of quarterbacks that are interchangeable depending on their plan of attack and the opponent. Sophomore Chase Garbers and junior Devon Modster combined for 2,205 passing yards, 410 rushing yards, and 18 touchdowns. The bell cow in the offensive backfield is RB Christopher Brown Jr who’s is lightning of the offensive skilled players. The tailback posted 943 yards from scrimmage with 11 combined touchdowns.
Cal is, as the Illini are, defense-first. The Bears average 20.1 points and 323.0 yards per game
The Illini are lead by quarterback Brandon Peters, running backs Reggie Corbin, Dre Brown, and Ra'Von Bonner. Smith's offense averages 27.3 ppg. Illinois went over the 30-point mark in six regular-season games but have faced but one defense as skilled and capable as the Bears.
The underlying peripherals in this game significantly favor the Bears. I expect this game to be a back-and-forth affair for the most part. Both teams will score plenty and do enough on defense to keep their teams competitive. But this resurgent Illinois team will find a way to pull out a close win in the end.
The Illini rank near the bottom of most important offensive categories. They gained, on average, over 509 yards less against their opponents this year than the foe allowed on average.
Cal’s offensive efficiency, adjusted, places them in the plus-yardage category in each and every game this season. The Cal offense averaged only 323 yds per game but factoring in numbers, i.e. time of possession and others puts them on top of the Illini on both offense and defense. On the stop side of the ball the Bears have an overwhelming advantage. And the offense is, for the first time this season, intact, healthy and ready to send QB Garbers behind center to start in this RedBox event -- a game in which Cal controls from start to finish and the best team and eventual winner in this holiday contest is never in question.
CALIFORNIA BEARS -6
__________________
ELITE SPORTS PICKS
Mississippi State/Louisville UNDER 63
__________________
INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
4* Florida-14 NCAAFB
3* Mississippi State/Louisville UNDER 63
3* Valparaiso+1 NCAABB
__________________
NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
4* Portland-4 NBA
3* Western Michigan+3.5 NCAAFB
3* Eastern Washington-7.5 NCAABB
__________________
Primetime Sports Picks For 12/30/19
4 Unit --> Florida -14 over Virginia (NCAAF)
3 Unit --> Northern Kentucky -5.5 over Wisconsin-Green Bay (NCAAB)
3 Unit --> Portland St. -2.5 over Southern Utah (NCAAB)
__________________
Therainman
10 stars: Florida
3 stars: California
__________________
Lee Sterling
30 Miss St
25 WKY
25 FLA
__________________
Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
9:19 AM
W. MICHIGAN +3.5
W. KENTUCKY VS W. MICHIGAN | 12/30 | 12:30 PM EST
The hook could make the difference in an even matchup. So could the time gap between the final regular-season game and the bowl for Western Michigan star RB LeVante Bellamy (23 TDs, 1,410 yards). Nagging injuries did not slow him down much, and he should be refreshed against the No. 21 defense in points allowed. In the postseason, if it’s a top-notch defense against a top-notch offense, usually side with the latter.
45-36-1 IN LAST 82 CFB ATS PICKS | +521
Tom Fornelli
#TRUSTTHEPROCESS
YESTERDAY 5:55 PM
W. MICHIGAN +3.5
W. KENTUCKY VS W. MICHIGAN | 12/30 | 12:30 PM EST
FIRST RESPONDER BOWL -- I wish I had a great reason to explain this pick, but in the end it boils down to me just fading Conference USA this bowl season. The conference is 2-4 so far, but its two wins were by its two best teams. The rest of the conference past FAU and Louisiana Tech has been soft all season. Now, that's not to say the MAC is filled with juggernauts, but this Western Michigan team is good enough to cover against a WKU team that's not as good as its 8-4 record would suggest.
23-18-3 IN LAST 44 CFB ATS PICKS | +307
Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
TUE 12/24
W. KENTUCKY -3.5
W. KENTUCKY VS W. MICHIGAN | 12/30 | 12:30 PM EST
FIRST RESPONDER BOWL -- WMU has not played great - or consistent - defensively this season. While the Broncos have an offense capable of threatening any opponent, their defense usually is giving the opposing team free access to the end zone. Look for more of that here, as WKU is firing on all cylinders offensively and playing much better defense.
107-69-1 IN LAST 177 CFB ATS PICKS | +3178
3-2 IN LAST 5 WKY ATS PICKS | +80
__________________
Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
9:30 AM
LOUISVILLE +4.5
MISS. STATE VS LOUISVILLE | 12/30 | 4:00 PM EST
Mississippi State appeared to be the stronger team coming into this one. But with RB Kylin Hill sitting out as he prepares for the NFL Draft and their starting QB missing the game because of a fight with a teammate, the Bulldogs have too much smoke around them for me to feel comfortable picking them. Louisville has played inspired ball all season.
107-69-1 IN LAST 177 CFB ATS PICKS | +3178
3-1 IN LAST 4 LVILLE ATS PICKS | +189
Tom Fornelli
#TRUSTTHEPROCESS
YESTERDAY 5:52 PM
UNDER 63
MISS. STATE VS LOUISVILLE | 12/30 | 4:00 PM EST
MUSIC CITY BOWL -- Yeah, this total is just too high. Mississippi State's defense had problems during the regular season, but that was due to suspensions and injuries. The unit comes into this game with everybody available. As for Louisville, its defense has been a problem at times, but this Mississippi State offense isn't strong enough to exploit it. At least, not as often as this total suggests it will.
26-19-1 IN LAST 46 CFB O/U PICKS | +500
Barrett Sallee
CFB GURU
MON 12/23
UNDER 63.5
MISS. STATE VS LOUISVILLE | 12/30 | 4:00 PM EST
MUSIC CITY BOWL -- Bulldogs running back Kylin Hill will play after declaring for the draft, but will it be more of a curtain call? Probably. Because of that, the Bulldogs will play a little sloppy on offense even though Louisville's defense has been shaky this year. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs defense gave up just 22.3 points per game in November. This won't touch 60 points.
54-27-2 IN LAST 83 CFB PICKS | +2418
__________________
Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
9:25 AM
CALIFORNIA -6.5
CALIFORNIA VS ILLINOIS | 12/30 | 4:00 PM EST
It's been a feel-good season for the Fighting Illini, who went on a four-game winning streak at the most critical juncture - beating Wisconsin in the process. Where I have concern is on the defensive side of the ball, as Illinois hasn't been able to prevent opponents from making the big play. Cal's defense is fundamentally sound and plays with extreme discipline.
107-69-1 IN LAST 177 CFB ATS PICKS | +3178
6-3-1 IN LAST 10 CAL ATS PICKS | +266
Tom Fornelli
#TRUSTTHEPROCESS
THU 12/26
ILLINOIS +6.5
CALIFORNIA VS ILLINOIS | 12/30 | 4:00 PM EST
REDBOX BOWL -- The Illini have done well this season as an underdog, going 6-1 ATS, including straight up wins against Wisconsin, Purdue and Michigan State. Now they're nearly a touchdown dog against a Cal team scoring only 20 points per game that is 2-4 ATS as a favorite this season, and 4-7-1 ATS when favored since last season.
23-18-3 IN LAST 44 CFB ATS PICKS | +307
Barrett Sallee
CFB GURU
MON 12/23
UNDER 43
CALIFORNIA VS ILLINOIS | 12/30 | 4:00 PM EST
REDBOX BOWL -- The Under is 7-4 in Cal games and 8-4 in Illinois games this season. Illinois' defense hasn't been stellar, but it's not like Cal's offense has done a lot to instill confidence this season. Combine trends with what's typically a sloppy track at Levi's Stadium, and you get a low-scoring, sloppy game.
54-27-2 IN LAST 83 CFB PICKS | +2418
__________________
Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
9:34 AM
FLORIDA -14.5
FLORIDA VS VIRGINIA | 12/30 | 8:00 PM EST
I really like the Gators in this game. I thought they were one of the tougher teams in the SEC, let alone the East Division. They can run the ball, they play good defense and they have efficient QB play. Virginia does have a tremendous talent in QB Bryce Perkins, but at times, its offense seems a bit one-dimensional. Look for the Gators to make a statement in this one.
107-69-1 IN LAST 177 CFB ATS PICKS | +3178
8-4 IN LAST 12 FLA ATS PICKS | +361
Tom Fornelli
#TRUSTTHEPROCESS
YESTERDAY 5:49 PM
FLORIDA -14.5
FLORIDA VS VIRGINIA | 12/30 | 8:00 PM EST
ORANGE BOWL -- We've seen it all year long with Virginia. When the Cavs run into a team with a strong front seven and a good pass rush, they struggle mightily. That was the case in losses to Notre Dame, Miami and Clemson. In Miami they'll be facing a Florida defense that ranks third nationally in sack rate. I don't know where Virginia's points come from.
23-18-3 IN LAST 44 CFB ATS PICKS | +307
4-1 IN LAST 5 FLA ATS PICKS | +290
Barrett Sallee
CFB GURU
MON 12/23
FLORIDA -14.5
FLORIDA VS VIRGINIA | 12/30 | 8:00 PM EST
ORANGE BOWL -- Games are won at the line of scrimmage, and Virginia can't block anybody. Is that suddenly going to change against a talented, fast and aggressive Gators front seven? Absolutely not. Even if this game is sloppy early, Gators quarterback Kyle Trask will find a way to lead his squad to a late cover.
54-27-2 IN LAST 83 CFB PICKS | +2418
3-1-1 IN LAST 5 FLA ATS PICKS | +188
__________________
Marc Lawrence
Monday Night Top of the Ticket Orange Bowl Blowout!
Virginia
__________________
Tom Stryker
15-0 ATS & 67-30 ATS NCAA BOWL DOUBLE SYSTEM PLAY
Illinois
__________________
Dr. Chuck
4% Illinois +7
4% Western Michigan-Western Kentucky over 54
__________________
Paul Leiner
2000* Over 54 WKU/W. Mich
100* Illinois +6.5
100* Miss St -4
100* Over 127 Pitt/Canisius
__________________
From Northcoast group of handicappers:
------------------------------------
Friends of Mike Lee
NBA
3* #516 Minnesota +2
------------------------------------
Jim Feist
NCAA BK
3* #723 Hofstra pk
Jr odonnell
CFB BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR
Florida
__________________
Wayne Root
Millionaires- Virginia +13
__________________
Seabass first report: 700 western Michigan
__________________
LV WOLF
Virginia 14.5
__________________
Mike Barner
Dec NBA ATS 20-20
UTAH -10
DETROIT @ UTAH | 12/30 | 9:00 PM EST
11:35 AM
The Jazz seem to have hit their stride, winning seven of their last eight games. The only loss was by just three points in Miami. The Pistons have been a disaster on the road, where they are 4-10 ATS. To further complicate matters, they are expected to be without F Blake Griffin (knee), G Luke Kennard (knee) and F Markieff Morris (foot) for this one. Look for Utah to cover this lofty line at home.
36-23 IN LAST 59 NBA ATS PICKS | +1070
12-9 IN LAST 21 DET ATS PICKS | +206
MILWAUKEE -6.5
MILWAUKEE @ CHICAGO | 12/30 | 8:00 PM EST
11:30 AM
The Bulls have won five of their last eight but defeated Atlanta twice, beat Washington by one point and topped Detroit in that span. That’s not exactly impressive. Meanwhile, the Bucks have won five of six despite having G Eric Bledsoe (lower leg) and F Giannis Antetokounmpo (back) miss time. And four of the victories were by at least 11 points. With Bledsoe expected back for this game, look for the Bucks to cover.
36-23 IN LAST 59 NBA ATS PICKS | +1070
12-7 IN LAST 19 CHI ATS PICKS | +428
__________________
Maddux
10 Illinois/California over 43.5
__________________
Chris Jordan
BIGGEST BOWL RELEASE OF THE SEASON
Top-Rated
1000♦
Football Winner # 4 in a Row
Illinois
__________________
Jim Feist
Hofstra pk
__________________
BMC 1000 Virginia
__________________
MARCO D'ANGELO
COLLEGE BOWL HIGH ROLLER PLAY
Game: (249) ILLINOIS at (250) CALIFORNIA
Date/Time: Dec 30 2019 4:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: CALIFORNIA -6.0 (-108)
View Analysis
4% CALIFORNIA -6
Two major factors have us lining up on California. First off California has played a much tougher schedule than Illinois. The California defense is good as they allowed 20 or fewer points in 9 of their 12 games. California won their first 4 games of the season before losing their next 4 games in a row. The losing streak started when starting QB Chase Garbers was injured in the Arizona St game. Garbers returned to start the final two games of the season both victories. Fact is this Cal offense is totally different with Garbers at QB. The site of this Bowl Game greatly favors California. I know that the PAC 12 has had it’s troubles in the Bowls but I feel this is a mismatch with Garbers back at QB. My numbers have California winning 31-17 as my BOWL HIGH ROLLER PLAY.
__________________
Miller picks
12/31/2019
3:45 pm est ncaaf
kansas state vs. Navy
pick: Kansas state +2.5 (-101)
risk: 11 units
4:30 pm est ncaaf
georgia state vs. Wyoming
pick: Wyoming -7 (-102)
risk: 11 units
1/1/2020
1:00 pm est ncaaf
michigan vs. Alabama
pick: Michigan +7 (-108)
risk: 11 units
1:00 pm est ncaaf
minnesota u vs. Auburn
pick: Minnesota u +7 (-106)
risk: 11 units
8:45 pm est ncaaf
baylor vs. Georgia
pick: Georgia -5.5 (-102)
risk: 11 units
1/2/2020
3:05 pm est ncaaf
boston college vs. Cincinnati u
pick: Cincinnati u -7 (-112)
risk: 11 units
7:00 pm est ncaaf
tennessee vs. Indiana
pick: Tennessee -1.5 (-116)
risk: 11 units
__________________
The Machine
NCAAF:
California -5.5 *10 units*
NBA:
Bucks vs. Bulls Under 219.5 *5 units*
NCAAB:
Indiana State -5.5 *10 units*
__________________
WORLDS WORST PICKER
Bowl Picks
Peabodys Super Picks: Virginia
Peabodys Regular Picks: Western Michigan
Play On: Florida, California Mississippi State
Play On: Western Kentucky, Illinois Louisville
__________________
Bezobets
PARLAY* NCAA Football: Mississippi State ML + California ML @ 2.053/+105 (3 Units)
NCAA Basketball: Yale +7.5 @ 1.909/-110 (3 Units)
NCAA Basketball: Xavier +6 @ 1.909/-110 (3 Units)
NCAA Football: Virginia +14.5 @ 1.909/-110 (2 Units)
__________________
WunderDog Pick:
Game: Mississippi State Bulldogs (281) vs. Louisville Cardinals (282)
Time: Monday 12/30 4:00 PM Eastern
Pick: OVER 64
WunderDog Pick:
Game: Austin Peay Governors (729) @ Georgia Bulldogs (730)
Time: Monday 12/30 7:00 PM Eastern
Pick: UNDER 154
__________________
Mississippi Kid
Music City Bowl
Miss State-4.5 2U
__________________
WORLDS WORST PICKER
NCAA BB
Peabodys Super Picks: Delaware
Peabodys Regular Picks: Xavier Northern Kentucky Davidson
Play On: College of Charleston
Play On: Villanova Wis-Green Bay Vandy
__________________