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'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': CFB bowl picks, bets, nuggets

What's in store for this holiday season in college football?
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica break down the bowl season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets (Bear Bytes!) and money-line parlays to jump on.
The guys are ready to continue their prognostications and will continue to do so throughout the bowl season. By the way, make sure to watch their bowl picks special!
The plays

Stanford Steve (3-1 conference championship week, 39-30-3 overall)

The Bear (2-2 conference championship week, 36-34-1 overall)

Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl

Buffalo Bulls (-6.5, 52.5) vs. Charlotte 49ers

(2 p.m. ET, Friday on ESPN at Thomas A. Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas)
The Bear: Both teams got hot late, albeit against the weaker part of their schedules, but I'll ride with Charlotte here. During their five-game win streak, the 49ers won three as a 'dog. Running back Benny LeMay, quarterback Chris Reynolds and the offense did pretty well all season outside of games against Clemson and Western Kentucky. While Charlotte could be just happy to be here, I think being here in the school's first bowl game isn't enough; the 49ers want to win it. That, coupled with the MAC's struggles in bowls, leads me to taking the points.
Pick: Charlotte +6.5
Stanford Steve: A good first game to get us started in bowl season. Both these teams led their conferences in rushing yards per game, meaning the game could be low-scoring. It's pretty obvious what the public thinks, as the over/under has dropped six points from the number where it opened. I really respect these two head coaches, even though Lance Leipold has more experience in bowls. I just feel as if the Bulls are giving too many points to a team that has an offense as competent as the 49ers'. I'll take the points.
Pick: Charlotte +6.5; Buffalo 24, Charlotte 21.
Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl

SMU Mustangs (-3, 70) vs. Florida Atlantic Owls

(3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday on ABC at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida)
Stanford Steve: We all know that Lane Kiffin left Boca Raton to go coach Ole Miss, and with that I think there is a little emptiness on the side of the Owls in this matchup. They lost coaches and are playing a bowl game in their home stadium for the second time in three years because they beat up on a bad UAB team. On the other side, you have a Mustangs team who I feel is superior at every position on the field, and, no offense to FAU interim coach Glenn Spencer, has even more of an advantage in the head coaching battle. Plus, SMU is loaded with transfers, and I feel as if the Ponies will be plenty motivated to play in a bowl game to close out a great season under Sonny Dykes. I'll lay the three points.
Pick: SMU -3; SMU 45, FAU 20.
Camellia Bowl

Florida International Panthers vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (-2.5, 63)

(5:30 p.m. ET, Saturday on ESPN at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama)
The Bear: FIU's win over Miami got the Panthers to six wins and bowl eligibility. It also led them to a bit of a letdown the following week as they lost to Marshall. But there isn't a coach out there who gets his team ready for bowl games better than Butch Davis. Davis' teams are 8-1 ATS in bowls, and I expect the offense, led by quarterback James Morgan and a pair of running backs, to be able to put up points on a defense that ranks outside the top 100 in expected points.
Pick: FIU +2.5
Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl

Boise State Broncos vs. Washington Huskies (-3.5, 49.5)

(7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday on ABC at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas)
Stanford Steve: What a weird season for Washington. Usually an outstanding home team, the Huskies blew games in conference in which they led, and it ended up costing them a spot in the Pac-12 title game. This is Chris Petersen's last game as Washington head coach, and he has to be feeling he'd rather be coaching against any team other than Boise State. With that being said, I do believe Petersen will have his guys ready to go and plenty motivated. For the most part, the boys from Boise overachieved this season, playing and winning games with three quarterbacks, and I do like the talent they have on the defensive line, but I will lay the points and take the favorite.
Pick: Washington -3.5; Washington 27, Boise State 20.
Walk-On's Independence Bowl

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Miami Hurricanes (-6.5, 49.5)

(4 p.m. ET, Dec. 26 on ESPN at Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana)
The Bear: Miami went from blowing a fourth-quarter lead vs. Florida in the season opener to losing to Georgia Tech, Duke and FIU. Thus, the reward for a 6-6 season is a trip to Shreveport in what is essentially a road game against a Louisiana Tech team that should have been in the C-USA title game but was not because of suspensions, which cost it the game at UAB. Miami has players sitting out for the draft, and I find it hard to see a lot of motivation here for the Canes. On the flip side, this is about the best possible reward for Louisiana Tech -- a name opponent in basically a home game to salvage some of what could have been a conference title-type season.
Pick: Louisiana Tech +6.5
Camping World Bowl

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-4, 55)

(Noon ET, Dec. 28 on ABC at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida)
The Bear: Iowa State's season felt as if it was close and unfulfilled. The Cyclones lost one-point games in their two biggest games -- vs. Iowa and at Oklahoma -- then put up a bad offensive effort (1-for-13 on third down) in the season finale at Kansas State. Now Iowa State gets a Super Bowl-type game against Notre Dame. Thousands are going to flock to Orlando for this one. And it's almost like a Catch-22 type game for the Irish; if they win, well, good, you were supposed to beat Iowa State. But if they lose, it's how could you lose to Iowa State? I expect Brock Purdy and the ISU offense to have some success against Notre Dame's defense and do enough vs. Ian Book and the Irish offense to at the very least take this one to the final gun, if not win outright.
Pick: Iowa State +4
The Bear's 'dogs to take on the money line

Since 2008, underdogs are 208-193-5 ATS in bowl games (52%). Of the 208 'dogs that covered, 152 (73%) of them won outright. So don't be afraid to throw a little on the ML as well. Here are some 'dogs to consider taking to win outright.
Boston College +220
Charlotte +205
FIU +115
Florida State +175
Hawai'i +105
Iowa State +155
Louisiana Tech +190
Michigan +225
Oregon +120
Bear Bytes

Pac-12 problems
Over the past three years, the Pac-12 is 4-17-1 ATS in bowl games. That includes a 1-9-1 mark as a favorite. Pac-12 teams are 4-12 straight up in bowl games over the past two years.
Big SEC favorites no good?
Since the 2016 national championship game, there have been eight SEC teams favored by at least six points in a bowl game. Five of the eight lost outright, including each of the past two losers of the SEC title game: Auburn in 2017 and Georgia in 2018. Before that, 12 straight SEC favorites of at least six points won outright.
Heal(y)-ing power
Charlotte has won each of its past three games outright as an underdog.
MACtion!
The MAC is 2-15 SU in bowls in the past three years, and 3-8 ATS over the past two years. Dating to 2013, the past five MAC teams that were favored by at least six points went 1-4 outright, including a pair of 30-point losses. One of the four teams to lose outright was Toledo, which lost 35-32 to FIU in the 2018 Bahamas Bowl as a 7-point favorite.
Yes Kent do
Kent State has covered each of its past five games as an underdog, winning the past three outright. Dating to last year, Kent State has covered each of its past six games as an underdog vs. non-Power 5 teams.
Bowl blues for The U
Miami is 1-8 SU in its past nine bowl games. In that span, the Canes have lost four of the five bowl games in which they were favored. Miami is also 2-9 ATS in its past 11 bowl games.
No blue turf, no matter
Boise State is 7-2 ATS with five outright wins as an underdog in bowl games. That includes an outright win over Oregon in the 2017 Vegas Bowl as a 7-point 'dog. The Broncos have won five of six and 10 of their past 13 games against Pac-12 opponents.
SEC vs. Big Ten is an auto play?
Since 2015, Big Ten teams are 3-9 straight up against SEC teams in bowl games (2-10 ATS, 1-4 ATS as a favorite, 1-6 ATS as a 'dog).
X + Y = Clemson?
Since 2013, Ohio State is 5-2 in bowl games. The Buckeyes are 0-2 vs. Clemson and 5-0 against everyone else. Since 2012, Clemson is 8-2 in bowl games. The Tigers are 2-2 vs. Alabama and 6-0 against everyone else. Clemson is 9-1 ATS in those 10 games.
Don't be afraid to back Big 12 'dogs
Since 2016, there have been 17 Big 12 underdogs in bowl games. They are 10-7 ATS with eight outright wins, including winning five of the seven games outright in which they were a 'dog vs. SEC teams.
Irish a mixed bag in bowls
Notre Dame is 2-5 ATS in its past seven bowl games. The Irish are 5-4 in their past nine bowl games after losing 10 of their previous 11. Notre Dame's past 14 bowl games have either been decided by four points or fewer (three times) or by at least 13 points (11 times).
A(mes) for effort
Iowa State's two bowl games under Matt Campbell have been decided by a combined three points. Iowa State is 13-3 ATS with six outright wins in its past 16 games as an underdog. The two times this season Iowa State was an underdog each resulted in a one-point loss (vs. Iowa and at Oklahoma).
Close bowl games a staple under James Franklin
Penn State's five bowl games under Franklin have each been decided by seven points or fewer (21 combined points).
Coach O gets the money
As a head coach, Ed Orgeron is 14-2-1 ATS against top-10 teams not named Alabama. At LSU, he's 7-1-1 ATS with nine outright wins in that spot.
Leach struggles in bowls
Mike Leach is 1-8 ATS in his past nine bowl games (1-7 as a favorite). Leach's teams have lost five of the nine games outright.
Support the troops!
Since 2013, Air Force, Army and Navy are 9-2 both outright and ATS in bowl games. That includes four outright wins in five games as an underdog.
Iowa on an incredible run
Since 2015, Iowa has been favored by less than six points 13 times. The Hawkeyes have won all 13 games. Seven of those wins came when Iowa was favored by a field goal or less. Iowa is 9-4 ATS in those 13 games. Nine of the 13 wins have come away from Kinnick Stadium.
Points aplenty
Wake Forest's three bowl games under Dave Clawson have seen 71, 107 and 60 total points scored. All three games resulted in Wake Forest wins. The three bowl games in which Clawson coached Bowling Green saw 57, 49 and 85 points.
Sun Belt, fun belt
Since 2017, Sun Belt teams are 7-3 in bowl games. Two of the three losses were by Arkansas State, coming by a combined eight points.
SEC is Gundy kryptonite?
Oklahoma State is 7-2 in its past nine bowl games (6-3 ATS). Mike Gundy is 1-3 both ATS and straight up vs. SEC teams in bowl games as a 'dog. The one win came last year as a 9-point underdog vs. Missouri.
Butch owns the bowls!
Between his stints at Miami, North Carolina and FIU, Butch Davis is 8-1 ATS in bowl games. The only non-cover came in 2017 when the Golden Panthers lost 28-3 to Temple as a 7-point 'dog in a game which they lost their starting quarterback in the first quarter.
Don't be afraid to lay a big number
UCF is a 17.5-point favorite vs. Marshall. In the past 15 years, the three bowl favorites of at least 17 points all covered, winning 50-3, 58-14 and 48-20.
Rhule-ing class
In its past eight games as an underdog, Baylor is 8-0 ATS with five outright wins. In 48 games as an underdog, Matt Rhule is 34-14 ATS with 16 outright wins.
Ducks win outright -- or get blown out
In its past 17 games as an underdog, Oregon is 5-12 ATS (3-4 under Mario Cristobal). All five of the covers were also outright wins.
Power 6?
After winning its first bowl game last year, the AAC didn't cover any of its final six games.
Back the Badgers in bowl?
Wisconsin has won five straight bowl games, going 4-0-1 ATS.
Lovie time?
Cal was favored only three times all season vs. FBS teams. The Bears didn't cover any of the three and lost two of them outright. Illinois was 6-1 ATS with three outright wins as an underdog this year. The three wins for Lovie Smith's team all came as 'dogs of at least 9.5 points.
Au-burning money?
Auburn has failed to cover each of its past seven bowl games in which it has been a favorite of at least six points, losing outright in both instances under Gus Malzahn, in 2014 vs. Wisconsin and 2017 vs. UCF.
Texas is back ... as an underdog
Tom Herman is 3-0 in bowl games, winning outright as an underdog in all three games.
Low Tide?
Alabama is 3-7 ATS in its past 10 bowl games, losing four times as at least a 5.5-point favorite. The Tide also lost the last non-CFP bowl they played, as a 16-point favorite vs. Oklahoma.
The factory
Eastern Michigan's two bowl games under Chris Creighton have been decided by a combined six points. The Eagles covered but lost both games.
For Boston
Eight of Boston College's past 10 bowl games have been decided by seven points or fewer.
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ESPN betting analysts Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian, Bill Connelly and Phil Steele are here to offer up their best bets. We'll keep updating as matchups approach, so follow along!
Regular-season records
Connelly: 30-16-2 (1-4 last week)
Steele: 31-41-1 (2-3)
Johnson: 35-25-1 (2-2)
Kezirian: 46-36-1 (1-2)
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, unless otherwise noted. All times Eastern.
Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl

Buffalo Bulls (-6.5, 52.5) vs. Charlotte 49ers

(2 p.m. Dec. 20 on ESPN at Thomas A. Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas)
Connelly: Both of these teams got hot late in the season. Charlotte won its last five and rose from 111th to 98th in SP+ to reach its first bowl, and Buffalo won five of its last six (the Bulls outgained Kent State by 95 yards in their lone loss) and rose from 113th to 84th. That the Bulls improved by more is the reason for them to be favored, but unless Charlotte goes into full "happy to be here" mode, six points is a lot.
This is a pretty interesting matchup of strength vs. strength (Charlotte O vs. Buffalo D) and weakness vs. weakness (Buffalo O vs. Charlotte D). If the 49ers find success against an aggressive, all-or-nothing Bulls pass defense, they could win outright. SP+ projects a 30-28 Buffalo win.
Pick: Charlotte +6.5
Steele: I am on the Joe Moore Award committee for choosing the top offensive line in the country, and Charlotte's unit got high praise on our conference calls during the season. Buffalo also has a solid offensive line, paving the way for 254 rushing yards per game and 5 yards per carry while allowing just eight sacks. The Bulls lost their starting QB in Week 5, and though Kyle Vantrease has thrown for just 155 yards per game in his seven starts, the team is 6-1 ATS in those games. Charlotte has the stronger pass game, but Buffalo has a good-sized edge on defense. Both teams rank near the bottom of my special-teams rankings.
My power ratings have this one close to the line, so with the strong offensive lines, I will look to the over (the past five Bahamas Bowls have averaged 66.2 points per game).
Pick: Lean over 52.5
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

Utah State Aggies (-4.5, 65) vs. Kent State Golden Flashes

(7:30 p.m. Dec. 20 on ESPN2 at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas)
Steele: This one figures to be a shootout, with Utah State allowing foes 33 yards per game above their season average and Kent State yielding 96 yards per game above. The Golden Flashes have a very underrated QB in Dustin Crum, who threw 18 TDS with just two interceptions and is the team's leading rusher with 560 yards. Aggies QB Jordan Love is an NFL prospect, but he had a 32-6 TD/INT breakdown last season with a tremendous supporting cast. With just one other returning starter on offense, this season he has only 17 TDs vs. 16 INTs, and Utah State has gone from 48 PPG to 28 PPG. Kent State has covered six in a row as an underdog versus non-Power 5 teams and is getting a full touchdown here. (The line was Utah State -7 before three players were cited for marijuana use Tuesday.)
Pick: Lean Kent State +7
Celebration Bowl

Alcorn State Braves vs. North Carolina A&T Aggies (-2.5, 51.5; Westgate)

(Noon Dec. 21 on ABC at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta)
Steele: This is the fifth Celebration Bowl, which pits the champions from the MEAC and SWAC. North Carolina A&T is 3-0 in this bowl game, including a 24-22 win over Alcorn State last season. With Noah Johnson rushing for 1,080 yards, Alcorn State averaged 285 yards per game rushing and 6.2 yards per carry last season. Johnson went down with a season-ending injury this season, but his replacement, Felix Harper, was the SWAC Offensive Player of the Year.
The Aggies' defense is coming off a game in which it held NC Central to 9 total yards of offense in a 54-0 shutout. My computer and average game grades both have NC A&T winning by 10 points, so there is some definite value here.
Pick: Lean NC A&T -2.5
New Mexico Bowl

Central Michigan Chippewas vs. San Diego State Aztecs (-3.5, 41)

(2 p.m. Dec. 21 on ESPN at Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico)
Johnson: Maybe the memory of the Aztecs' 27-0 loss to Ohio in last year's Frisco Bowl is still fresh in everyone's minds, as it isn't too often that a MAC school dominates a bowl game. My projection here is San Diego State -6.2, and though the turnaround season from Central Michigan is a great story (1-11 to 8-5 and a MAC title game appearance), it probably speaks more to the lack of talent in the MAC than the actual abilities of the team relative to the rest of the country. Remember: Central Michigan lost 61-0 to Wisconsin earlier this season.
Not only am I getting the more talented team (starting quarterback Ryan Agnew is probable), but I'm specifically buying Rocky Long's defense, which ranks ninth in the country in defensive efficiency (4.6 yards per play) and first in rushing yards allowed per play (2.7). With Long having multiple weeks to prepare his defense for a Chippewas offense that has been playing MAC competition the past few months (124th-ranked strength of schedule), I'm thrilled to buy low here at a cheap number.
Pick: San Diego State -3.5
Steele: San Diego State games have topped 41 points just twice this season -- and they average 32 PPG. Central Michigan has the edge on offense, with RBs Jonathan Ward and Kobe Lewis, but the Aztecs' defense is No. 6 in the country, holding foes to 110 yards per game below their season average. When you think of San Diego State, you think of RBs who rush for 2,000 yards (two of them in past four years), but this year the top RB is Juwan Washington, with just 500 yards and a poor 3.3 yards per carry. The Aztecs have a significant edge on special teams at No. 17 in my rankings, with Central Michigan at No. 76, and that hurt them in the MAC title game. Central averaged just 13.6 points per game versus the five toughest defenses. I like the Aztecs to win, but they are laying more than a field goal, so I will lean with the under.
Pick: Lean under 41
Cure Bowl

Liberty Flames vs. Georgia Southern Eagles (-5, 58.5)

(2:30 p.m. Dec. 21 on CBS Sports Network at Exploria Stadium in Orlando, Florida)
Connelly: How much is a hot streak worth to you when a bowl break is involved? Georgia Southern began the season 1-3 and was ranked in the 100s in SP+ in late October, but excellent performances against Appalachian State, ULM and Georgia State not only drove the team to bowl eligibility but also lifted it to 89th in SP+. That's not bad, but do you lose your form with three weeks off?
Liberty, meanwhile, has basically been the same team for the past two months. The Flames were 91st in SP+ after six weeks and 87th at the end of the regular season. Their balanced and dangerous offense is the best unit in this game, and the connection of quarterback Stephen Calvert to receiver Antonio Gandy-Golden could have a field day against a shaky Georgia Southern pass defense. SP+ projects a near toss-up (Liberty by 0.2), which is almost a touchdown's difference with the betting market.
Pick: Liberty +5
Steele: Liberty is 7-5 despite facing the weakest schedule in the country. Hugh Freeze took over a 6-6 team and transformed Stephen Calvert from a QB that had 21 TDs and 18 INTs last season to a 26-5 ratio this season. Despite the schedule, Liberty allowed foes 4.7 yards per carry rushing and 26 yards above their season average. That does not bode well against the Georgia Southern option offense that ran for 261 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. The Eagles took on LSU and Minnesota in nonconference play, and their defense held foes to 63 yards per game below their season average. This is Liberty's first bowl, and I will go with the team that has the much stronger defense and has played the far tougher schedule.
Pick: Georgia Southern -5
Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl

SMU Mustangs (-3, 70.5) vs. Florida Atlantic Owls

(3:30 p.m. Dec. 21 on ABC at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida)
Steele: SMU is led by Texas transfer Shane Buechele (3,626 yards, 33 TDs, 9 INTS), and FAU is led by Oklahoma transfer Chris Robison (3,392 yards, 26 TDs, 6 INTs). The Owls won the Conference USA title this season, and their two nonconference losses were to Ohio State and UCF. SMU has just two losses this season, but the Mustangs were on the road to Memphis and Navy, who each had double-digit wins. The Owls have the better defense statistically, but the Mustangs had 50 sacks and took on the tougher schedule. I have been riding FAU all season, and though this team is a home underdog, head coach Lane Kiffin has accepted the job to coach Ole Miss. This should be a very competitive, high-scoring game.
Pick: Lean over 70.5
Camellia Bowl

Florida International Panthers vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (-2.5, 63)

(5:30 p.m. Dec. 21 on ESPN at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama)
Steele: Arkansas State has a dangerous offense. Despite losing QB Logan Bonner after four games, backup Layne Hatcher stepped in and threw for 314 yards per game, and wide receiver Omar Bayless is among the nation's receiving leaders with 1,473 yards and 16 TDs. The Red Wolves' defense was hurt by injuries all season and lost four defensive tackles for the season, leaving them vulnerable to the run (they allowed 224 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry). FIU is led by running backs Anthony Jones and Napoleon Maxwell, who combined for 1,411 yards rushing. Should the Red Wolves stack the box, QB James Morgan is an NFL prospect who has hit 62% of his passes with a 39-10 TD/INT ratio in two seasons. Butch Davis is 6-3 in bowl games, and Blake Anderson is 1-4.
Pick: FIU +2.5
Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl

Boise State Broncos vs. Washington Huskies (-3.5, 49.5)

(7:30 p.m. Dec. 21 on ABC at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas)
Steele: Chris Petersen started his head-coaching career at Boise State in 2006 and was there until 2014, when he left for Washington. Boise State should have both talented QBs (Hank Bachmeier and Jaylon Henderson) available. The Broncos' defense is led by defensive end Curtis Weaver (13.5 sacks), and the unit held foes to 67 yards per game below their season average. QB Jacob Eason topped 300 yards passing once all season versus FBS foes and will be without his top receiver in tight end Hunter Bryant and left tackle Trey Adams, who are opting to sit this one out. The Huskies are holding opponents to 71 yards per game below their season average. I could make a case for both teams here, so with two solid defenses, I will lean with the under.
Pick: Lean under 49.5
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Appalachian State Mountaineers (-16.5, 48) vs. UAB Blazers

(9 p.m. Dec. 21 on ESPN at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans)
Steele: UAB coach Bill Clark took over a team that had not played football for two years and guided it to a bowl game. The Blazers were C-USA champs last season, and this season, with a very inexperienced team, the Blazers got to the C-USA title game. UAB QB Tyler Johnston missed four games, and RB Spencer Brown had five games with two carries or fewer down the stretch. UAB should be healthier for this game, and its defense holds opponents to 294 yards per game. UAB's schedule is 127th in my rankings, but App State has played the 106th-toughest schedule. App State QB Zac Thomas and RB Darrynton Evans are both dynamic, but UAB has some big play WRs in Austin Watkins and Kendall Parham. App State was outgained in four of its wins this year, with a first-down deficit of 106-63. The talent gap is not as large as the spread, and Clark will have his Blazers motivated, while the Mountaineers have a head coach in his first career game.
Pick: UAB +16.5
Kezirian: UAB is arguably the biggest farce this bowl season. The Blazers rank 106th out of 130 in ESPN's Football Power Index and are bowl-eligible only because they've beaten the nation's worst teams. Seven of their eight FBS wins came against opponents that rank in the triple digits of FPI. They also beat Louisiana Tech at home, but the Bulldogs were relegated to a third-string quarterback and lost by six points in Birmingham. FPI ranks Conference-USA dead last among all 10 FBS conferences. The eight bowl-eligible schools are misleading.
Meanwhile, the Blazers face a ranked App State squad that sits 30th in FPI. It is a solid team that won at both North Carolina and South Carolina, and its lone loss came against a triple-option offense (Georgia Southern) in windy conditions. The Mountaineers did lose head coach Eliah Drinkwitz to Missouri, but the school promoted offensive line coach Shawn Clark to head coach. He is not the interim coach, so that bodes well for stability and avoiding potential distractions.
It's a big number, but App State was 5-4 ATS this season when favored by double digits, so the Mountaineers can certainly handle it. I have faith in a blowout, much like we saw in UAB's 49-6 loss in its conference title game.
Pick: App State -16.5
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl

UCF Knights (-17, 61.5) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd

(2:30 p.m. Dec. 23 on ESPN at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida)
Steele: UCF was 13-0 in 2017 and 12-0 last season, coming up short versus LSU in the Fiesta Bowl. This season, the Knights are 9-3 and playing in the Gasparilla Bowl, and they could be in for a letdown. However, UCF could come out with a vengeance in nearby Tampa and make a statement. QB Dillon Gabriel had more TD passes (27) than McKenzie Milton did last season (25). UCF has a significant edge on offense, with plenty of explosive playmakers, and the Knights were No. 4 in the country averaging 537 yards per game. Marshall comes in No. 73 in that category, averaging 397 yards. Marshall was on course for the C-USA title game but lost to Charlotte and finished 7-1 in C-USA play. UCF is the stronger team and should win this game, but I am leaning with the 'dog here, as Marshall is 10-3 ATS the past 13 times it has been an underdog, and the Knights are on a 2-7 ATS run overall. Marshall head coach Doc Holliday is 6-0 straight-up and ATS in bowls.
Pick: Lean Marshall +17
SoFi Hawai'i Bowl

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors vs. BYU Cougars (-1.5, 64)

(8 p.m. Dec. 24 on ESPN at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu)
Steele: Most bowls have a split crowd, but Hawai'i will be playing in its home stadium. BYU QB Zach Wilson went 18-of-18 passing in a 49-18 bowl win last season. Wilson missed four games midseason but has returned to form. BYU was the only team in the country to open with four Power 5 opponents and pulled upsets of Tennessee and USC. Hawai'i lost twice at Boise, including in the Mountain West title game. BYU beat that same Boise team, but it was against a backup QB. Hawai'i is 4-4 straight-up and 3-5 ATS in this bowl. Hawai'i went to the run-and-shoot, and head coach Nick Rolovich goes with the hot hand at QB between Cole McDonald and Chevan Cordeiro. In its last six regular-season games, Hawai'i averaged 188 yards per game rushing, and the offensive line allowed just 22 sacks on 588 pass attempts. BYU's defense has recorded just 12 sacks. Hawai'i beat a pair of Pac-12 teams at home this season, and BYU is just 1-5 as a favorite this season.
Pick: Lean Hawai'i +1.5
Kezirian: Who doesn't love betting the Hawai'i Bowl? It is an "island game" (pun intended), serving as your lone college football action on Christmas Eve. On that merit alone, it often finds a way into your betting portfolio, but I still think there is value on BYU's offense. The Hawai'i defense ranks 103rd out of 130 schools in defensive efficiency. The Warriors played better down the stretch, but I am going to chalk that up to facing weak offenses. Their final three regular-season opponents (UNLV, San Diego State and Army) have offensive efficiency that ranks worse than 90th. This is still a defensive unit that can get torched by BYU. I also think Hawai'i should score and considered the game total over, but I am slightly more confident in isolating BYU's team total. There is a chance that BYU's physicality could bother Hawai'i, much like we saw Boise State do in the Mountain West title game when the Warriors mustered only 10 points.
Pick: BYU team total over 33 points (FanDuel)
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Steve Janus
Dec 21 '19, 1:05 PM in 3h
NHL | Ducks vs Islanders
Play on: Ducks +160 at Bovada

1* Free Sharp Play on Ducks +160
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Kenny Walker
Dec 21 '19, 2:30 PM in 5h
NCAA-F | Liberty vs Georgia Southern
Play on: Liberty +6½ -107 at Pinnacle

Free Pick on Liberty
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Jimmy Boyd
Dec 21 '19, 3:30 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | SMU vs Florida Atlantic
Play on: OVER 71 -110

1* Free Pick on SMU/Florida Atlantic over 71 -110

I unfortunately bet this game before the news of the FAU players getting suspended, but I do still have a strong lean towards the OVER at the current price (64-65).

SMU comes into this game averaging 43.0 ppg and the only game all season where they were held under 30 was against Navy and their ball-control offense with that triple-option. FAU's not the kind of team to play keep away, as they are built around the nations 30th ranked passing attack.

Don't be fooled by the fact that the Owls only gave up 22.3 ppg. That's just a result of playing a lot of bad offenses in C-USA. They gave up 45 to Ohio State (28 in the first quarter) and 48 to UCF. I fully expect the Mustangs to hit 40 in this one.

I'm sure some have concerns with FAU's offense with Lane Kiffin jumping ship to Ole Miss and all those skill players not playing. However, FAU averaged 35.2 ppg, scoring roughly 9 points more per game than their opponents allowed. They still got starting quarterback Chris Robinson and he's the guy that really makes this offense go.

Also, SMU is not great defensively. Mustangs gave up 31.8 ppg and finished 121st against the pass (285 ypg). Take the OVER!
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Brandon Lee
Dec 21 '19, 4:30 PM in 7h
NFL | Bills vs Patriots
Play on: Bills +6½ -107 at BetOnline

10* FREE NFL PICK (Bills +6.5)

I just think the value is definitely with the Bills at this price. You can say what you want about who Buffalo has and hasn’t beat in their 10-4 start, they pass the eye test for me. That combined with how well the Bills played against the Pats in that earlier meeting and I think this line should be closer to 3.5-4.

For me I just have a hard time seeing New England pulling away with how much their offense has struggled and just how good this Buffalo defense is. Keep in mind the Patriots had scored 30+ points in the 3 games leading up to their first meeting with the Bills and they did next to nothing in that game on the offensive side of the ball.

New England was able to score 34 last week at Cincinnati, but it was more of their defense than it was the offense. Patriots only had 291 yards of total offense, as they feasted off 5 Bengals turnovers, including a 64-yard pick-six by star corner Stephon Gilmore. Tom Brady was a mere 15 of 29 for 128 yards and that’s now 3 times in his last 4 games that he’s failed to simply throw for 200 yards.

I’m sure a lot of people will focus on how good the Patriots are at home and there’s no arguing the numbers, but they did just have their home winning streak snapped. Also, Buffalo had gone 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and New England is a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Give me Buffalo +6.5!
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Earl's Platinum Plays (Spooky Express) - CBB Comp Play - Butler -135 (Moneyline)
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Big Ray's Sports (Spooky Express) - CBB Comp Play - Kentucky +4
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Horse Racing with Dietz (Spooky Express) - Fair Grounds Race 9 La Signare W/P/S
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Hunter Price
Dec 21 '19, 7:00 PM in 9h
NCAA-B | Murray State vs Evansville
Play on: Evansville PK -109 at GTBets

1* Free Pick on Evansville PK -109
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Bobby Conn
Dec 21 '19, 8:00 PM in 10h
NCAA-B | Arkansas-Little Rock vs UL - Lafayette
Play on: UL - Lafayette +1½ -109 at GTBets
1* Free Play on UL - Lafayette +1½ -109
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Pro Computer Gambler
Dec 21 '19, 8:15 PM in 10h
NFL | Rams vs 49ers
Play on: Rams +7 -137 at 5dimes

In full database history, road teams off of road losses seeking revenge this game are 88-53-3 ATS (62.4%) against an opponent that just lost their last game as well, CLOSE, by less than one Touchdown.
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Ray Monohan
Dec 21 '19, 8:15 PM in 10h
NFL | Rams vs 49ers
Play on: 49ers -6½ -105 at Pinnacle

49ers -6.5

Week 16 action and we get a NICE NFC West matchup featuring the 8-6 (9-5 ATS) L.A. Rams taking on the 11-3 (8-5-1 ATS) San Francisco 49ers.

Tartt, Person, look to be out for this one for San Fran, and Sherman looks like he'll be making it back. For the Rams Hill and Zuerlein are question marks.

The Rams need to win out their last two games and have the Vikings lose their last two if they want to make the playoffs. NOT an easy task. The 49ers come into this game having lost two of their last three, however their defense is only giving up 18PPG, and that my friends will be the difference maker in this one. (Especially with Sherman back taking away all passes to his side of the field) The first time these two played this year, the Rams offense scored only seven points.

In that last matchup Goff only completed 13 passes for a career-low 78 yards. The combination of him having a bruised thumb and the 49ers TOP ranked pass defense makes this a no-fly-zone for me. On the other side Jimmy Garoppolo has recorded a 110+ passer rating in 4 of his past 5 starts. With a returning to health George Kittle, and an rejuvenated run game with Juszczyk leading the way for Mostert I don't see the Lambs hanging with San Fran on Saturday.

Some trends to consider. The Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against San Francisco, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games. San Francisco are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games this season, 8-2 SU in their last 10 games against an opponent in the NFC, 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.

The Niners will NOT be looking ahead to the matchup vs. the Seahawks in Week 17, and will take care of business in this one.

Play on 49ers -6.5

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Saturday 5* FREE NFL ATS Play
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Sean Murphy
Dec 21 '19, 9:00 PM in 11h
NCAA-F | UAB vs Appalachian State
Play on: Appalachian State -16 -110 at Mirage

Friday CFB Free play. My selection is on Appalachian State minus the points over UAB at 9 pm et on Saturday.

We're getting some value after the line shift with Appalachian State's head coach bolting for greener pastures. There's also the fact that the Mountaineers are in the New Orleans Bowl for the second straight season and won this game handily a year ago. Perhaps motivation won't be as high, at least that's the common line of thinking. I do like this matchup for Appalachian State, however. UAB is here thanks to a fairly soft schedule that included matchups with arguably three of the nation's weakest teams in Akron, Rice and UTEP. The Blazers got absolutely throttled in the C-USA Championship Game against Florida Atlantic, losing by a 49-6 margin. They'll be highly-motivated to bounce back with a strong performance here, but I still expect them to come up well short. Take Appalachian State (8*).
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Joseph D'Amico
Dec 21 '19, 9:00 PM in 11h
NCAA-F | UAB vs Appalachian State
Play on: Appalachian State -16½ -107 at Pinnacle

I am on a 27-10-2 college football run. I began last year's BOWL campaign at 11-0 to finish a documented, 25-7. This year, I take it up a notch. This Saturday, I have the winners of the NEW MEXICO BOWL, BOCA RATON BOWL, and LAS VEGAS BOWL. Follow a proven BOWL winner all the way to the bank.

Saturday's FREE BOWL WINNER: Appalachian State.

This is my NEW ORLEANS BOWL WINNER.

Game 218.

6:00 pm pst.

UAB certainly benefitted from a soft schedule, beating only one FBS team with a winning record (L Tech without their two best offensive starters). The rest of their victories were against teams with a combined, 15-69 record.

Appalachian State is in their fifth straight bowl (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) since becoming an FBS team in 2014. Not only do they score points (39.4 PPG), but they don't make too many mistakes either (8 giveaways). The Blazers "D" is solid, but offensively, they fall flatter than your morning pancakes and are in for a very long day against the ferocious, Mountaineers "D".

Appalachian State is 8-1 ATS the last nine nonconference games, 5-1 ATS the last six December games, and 22-8 ATS the last 30 overall games. Take Appalachian State. Thank you.
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