Sunday 12/15/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & NBA games.
Marc Lawrence
Dec 15 '19, 1:00 PM in 22h
NFL | Bears vs Packers
Play on: Bears +5 -118 at Pinnacle
Play – Chicago Bears (Game 309).
Edges – Bears: 7-0 SUATS when both teams are coming off a home game, and 5-0 SUATS in division games with QB Mitchell Tribusky when Chicago owns a winning record … Packers: 1-6 ATS in Last Home Games in division games when coming off a non-division game … We recommend a 1* play on Chicago. Thank you and good luck as always.
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Will Rogers
Dec 15 '19, 1:00 PM in 22h
NFL | Patriots vs Bengals
Play on: Patriots -9½ -110 at BMaker
The set-up: Yes, Tom Brady has taken a major step back over the second half of the season, but I still think the veteran will have more than enough in the tank to bounce back here in this favorable spot. Off their first home loss since 2017, clearly the Pats are going to be in a foul mood today (I had a play on the Chiefs last Sunday.) It hasn't been all Brady's fault obviously, as he's lacking big time playmakers. That said, a game vs. Andy Dalton and the toothless Bengals is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my opinion. With a tough game at home next week vs. a revenge-minded Bills team that's breathing down their neck, it's now or never for Bill Belichick and company in Cincinnati this weekend.
The pick: The Pats have been money in the bank for bettors in this spot for years as well, going 13-2 ATS in their last 15 vs. teams with losing records (which includes going 4-0 ATS this season) and a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three after having lost two out of their last three SU. The Bengals on the other hand are a money-burning 8-13 ATS in their last 21 at home, including 1-4 already this season. If you'd have asked Brady before the season started if he'd have been satisfied with a 13-3 campaign, I believe he'd have taken it on the spot. With a chance to still do that, I look for New England to finally start the turnaround this weekend. Consider laying the points.
1* FREE PLAY on New England.
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Matt Josephs
Dec 15 '19, 1:00 PM in 22h
NFL | Eagles vs Redskins
Play on: Redskins +5½ -109 at GTBets
This is the juiciest of sandwiches for the road team in this one. The Eagles expended a ton to beat the Giants at home in overtime on Monday Night Football. Along the way, they lost Alshon Jeffery and Lane Johnson who both won't be available for Sunday. Boston Scott, Greg Ward and Josh Perkins are the ones making catches late in the game. They've also got the Cowboys at home in what will be a huge game in terms of deciding who will win the NFC East next week. Washington has actually played better as of late winning two of their last three with the loss coming by five at Green Bay. The Redskins defense has cut Josh Norman out of the lineup and the secondary has improved. The offense still isn't very good with Dwayne Haskins under center, but if they can get AP going then they'll reduce the amount of possessions and shorten the game. Way back in week one, Philly won 32-27 over the Skins in a game that saw Washington blow a 20-7 halftime lead. Give me the home team here.
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JIMMY BOYD
NFL | Dec 15, 2019
Browns vs. Cardinals
1* NFL Free Pick on Arizona Cardinals +3 -120
I really like the value here with Arizona getting points at home against the Browns. I get Cleveland comes in having won 4 of their last 5, but all 4 wins came at home. The lone game they lost was on the road against an injury depleted Steelers team. This is just not a team that should be laying points on the road.
The Cardinals would appear like a team they should beat, as Arizona comes in with just 3-wins and has lost 6 straight, but Cleveland really should have lost last week at home to a 1-win Bengals team. Cincinnati outgained the Browns 451 to 333 and had 27 first downs to Cleveland's 17.
Cardinals have also been much better than their record would lead on. In their last 5 losses, 4 have come by 10 or less and 3 of those were decided by less than a touchdown.
Browns have failed to cover 4 straight on the road and are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Cardinals are 29-14 ATS last 43 at home off a loss by 6 or less and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record. Take Arizona!
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BRANDON LEE
NFL | Dec 15, 2019
Seahawks vs. Panthers
10* FREE NFL PICK (Seahawks -6)
I'll take my chances here with Seattle laying less than a touchdown on the road against the Panthers. I just think this is a good spot to jump on the Seahawks after laying an egg on the road against the Rams last week on Sunday Night Football.
Carolina is the perfect team right now for them to get back on track against. The Panthers fired head coach Ron Rivera before last week's game and usually you see a team perform well in that first game after a coach is fired. The Panthers lost by 20 to the Falcons and gave up 40 points and over 460 yards of offense in the process.
I just think Carolina is in a bad place mentally right now. On top of that, quarterback Kyle Allen has regressed a ton from his strong start and the even bigger concern has to be how the defense has been playing. Two weeks ago they gave up 248 rushing yards in a home loss to the Redskins.
The games in which the Seahawks have struggled this year is when they can't run the ball on offense. That shouldn't be a problem in this one, as the Panthers are giving up 175 ypg on the ground in their last 3.
Another key thing here is turnovers. Seattle's defense has generated 13 turnovers in their last 4 games and Carolina has turned tit over 11 times in their last 4. I think if the Seahawks start strong, which I believe they will, the Panthers are going to roll over and this likely gets ugly. Give me Seattle -6!
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ALEX SMART
NFL | Dec 15, 2019
Rams vs. Cowboys
UNDER 49
The Rams enter this game having seen 7 of their L/8 games stay under the total, while Dallas has seen 2 of their L/3 stay under while averaging just 16 ppg of offence in those three tilts. The current form of both teams points to this being a grinding low scoring late season affair.
LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons for combined average 44.8 ppg. LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 33.7 ppg. LA RAMS are 9-2 UNDER as a favorite this season with a combined average of 42.1 ppg going on the board.
NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DALLAS) - after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games are 23-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.
NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - after beating the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 26-7 UNDER L/36 seasons for a 79% conversion rate!
Play UNDER
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JOSEPH D'AMICO
NFL | Dec 15, 2019
Browns vs. Cardinals
Browns-2½ -120
Sunday's FREE NFL WINNER: Cleveland Browns.
Game 325.
1:05 pm pst.
Cleveland has turned a corner, winning and covering 4 of their L5. And with the following opponents being Baltimore and Cincinnati, in all reality, the Browns can finish the season at 8-8 and possibly, make the playoffs. Arizona, which is on a 6-game SU slide, has had only 3 victories this season against teams that are a combined, 7-31. Kyler Murray is struggling as is the entire Cardinals offense. With or without OBJ (probable, check status) the Browns offense has enough talent to shred the Cards porous, 30th ranked defense (30.0 PPG allowed). The favorite is 4-1 ATS the L5 meetings in this series. Arizona is 3-7 ATS the L10 at home and 1-6 ATS the L6 in December. Take Cleveland. Thank you.
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JOHN MARTIN
NFL | Dec 15, 2019
Bucs vs. Lions
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Tampa Bay Bucs -5
The Detroit Lions just don’t have much hope of doing anything with all their injuries right now. Third-string QB David Blough has only led the offense to a total of 7 points in the last seven quarters. And now he’s without two of his best receivers in Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockensen. There’s injuries all over the defense and along the offensive line as well. The Bucs are playing some great football right now. They have won three straight and just beat the Colts despite turning the ball over four times. They had 542 total yards in that game and it was only close because of the turnovers. The Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. Give me the Bucs.
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Chip Chirimbes
Miami at New York Giants 1:00 ET
Giants (-) over Dolphins- Eli's a comin' and the Dolphins beware. Last time out on Monday the undermanned Giants just out to a lead and then did nothing in the second half because Philadelphia as bad as they are is that much better than the New York. But, you can't say that about Miami who many said would not win a game, but are 1-game better than the Giants with three wins to two. Giants end their 10-games. With a win here Manning gets to an even .500 in career starts and the Giants end a nine-game losing streak. NEW YORK!
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Mike Wynn
Free Pick: Miami/NY Giants Under 45½ Points
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Totals4U
Early Sunday's Free Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars/Oakland Raiders under 47
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Atlantic Sports
Early Sunday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: NC Greensboro + 3
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Platinum Plays
Your Free Pick: The Nebraska Cornhuskers +12 over Purdue
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Hawkeye Sports
Early Sunday's Free Pick: Charlotte Hornets + 11 1/2
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Arthur Ralph
FREE play SUN Arizona + 3 NFL
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High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Early Sunday: New England Patriots - 10 1/2
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Tony Mejia
#305 Bucs
#315 Seahawks
#324 Raiders
#327 Falcons
#329 Rams
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Matt Zylbert
W.G.Ramirez
#310 Packers
#311 Patriots
#313 Texans
#319 Dolphins
#322 Steelers
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TONY FINN
Event: (317) Denver Broncos at (318) Kansas City Chiefs
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 15, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -12.5 (-110)
The Kansas City Chiefs and third-year quarterback and reigning MVP host John Elway's Denver Broncos and rookie quarterback Drew Lock in what is expected to be his third start.
(317) Denver Broncos at (318) Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5, 48)
Denver has improved on both sides of the ball since scuffling in September. This young group will have their hands full at Arrowhead against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Early lines on this Week 15 AFC West event are available, albeit limited, and have a cap on the max wager. The value in this West Divisional event rests on the sidelines of the Kansas City Chiefs. And the current early point spread of the Chiefs will only climb after Kansas City defeats the New England Patriots.
All reigns eventually end. Be it the Roman Empire or one that exists in our time and space, e.g., the Tom and Bill Dynasty as the King and General of the New England Patriots. With the win over New England, the Chiefs earned another AFC West title.
The opening line in this Week 15 contest between AFC West foes has backed up. But not solely on what the Broncos did in Houston this past Sunday, winning in a wire-to-wire 38-24 win over Deshaun Watson and the Texans but just as much because of the injury concerns to KC quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Watch the game film of the Kansas City upset of Brady at Gillette last week. The Chiefs defensive line was in blitz packages all afternoon. Look for Denver's rookie QB Dre Lock to face the same pressure.
Free Pick
The Free Pick is a play on Kansas City and the current -10 points.
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VEGAS SYNERGY
Event: (313) Houston Texans at (314) Tennessee Titans
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 15, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Houston Texans 3.0 (-110)
Houston +3
Houston is an official released play for 4p to clients. Our metrics show there is value in receiving points in the matchup
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BOBBY LIGS
Event: (307) Philadelphia Eagles at (308) Washington Redskins
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 15, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Washington Redskins 4.5 (-108)
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THE GOLD SHEET
Event: (321) Buffalo Bills at (322) Pittsburgh Steelers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 15, 2019 8PM EST
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (-110)
Though Buffalo is out to avoid its first 2-game losing streak of the year and stay in control of its playoff future (it holds down the first of the AFC’s two-wild card spots), the Bills have managed to defeat only one team with a current winning record (Tennessee) in 2019. Plus, the Buffalo D is off a physically-taxing clash with Baltimore’s Lamar “Action” Jackson & Co. So, we recommend laying the short price with wild-card seeking Pittsburgh, whose O has gotten a continued spark from 3rd-string QB Devlin “Duck” Hodges (16 of 19 for 152 & 1 TD vs. Arizona), who uncovered another emerging weapon to complement WR James Washington in 2nd-round draftee rookie WR Diontae Johnson (6 catches & punt return TD) vs. Cards. Plus, gnarly Steeler D (19 ppg) will be well-prepared for Buffalo’s mobile QB Josh Allen after frustrating fleet-footed Kyler Murray (3 picks, sacked 5 times) all day. Hey, has anyone done a better job as head coach TY than Mike Tomlin? "Totals" alert: Pitt “under” 15-5 L20, while Buffalo 10-3 “under” in 2019.
PITTSBURGH 26 - Buffalo 14
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