Tom Stryker
Western Kentucky
Tony George
4* UC Santa Barbara +21
3* Kansas St. -14.5
Billy Coleman
3* Colorado St -4
Brandon Lang
40 Dime UNLV +2.5
Paul Leiner
100* UNLV +2
100* Wizards -4.5
100* Pistons / Pacers Over 210
2000* Houston -14
Vegas Killers
2 Units UNLV/New Mexico Over 56
Jim Mack
UNLV +2.5
Northcoast
Marquee - Mid Tennessee St/W Kentucky Under
Vegas Money Moves - Week 11
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
It's Week 11 in the NFL, one week before Thanksgiving and Black Friday which means bettors are planning for ways to make more money so everyone is happy during Christmas. Some people ask work for more hours, some ask friends to repay a debt and others go the easy route: winning on NFL Sunday. Of course winning is always the goal, but this week they're really serious and they've come strong collectively on two teams as if the pair are the easiest exacta ever offered.
"We've basically got two games that are likely to define how we do on Sunday,' said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "The public are betting like crazy, dialed in on two teams like I've seen before. They absolutely love the Eagles and the next most one-sided has been the Patriots. That's going to be a risky two-teamer for us with parlays, money-line parlays and teasers.
The Eagles are laying up to -5 at Dallas at a few books around town after opening -3.5. Dallas is playing without RB Ezekiel Elliott and OT Tryon Smith with LB Sean Lee doubtful. The Eagles have won seven straight, covering the spread in the last six.
"It's the only two games that stand out," said Simbal, "maybe the Jags would be third because we took a big bet on them and the majority of bettors are simply betting against the Browns no matter who they play.
Simbal noted the Browns have failed to cover in seven of their nine games.
But back to the Patriots and Eagles sides where Simbal started giving examples of just how one-sided those two games are.
"We've had a 7-to-1 ratio on tickets written with the Patriots and for every $230 bet on the Patriots were getting a dollar on the Raiders. It's a larger disparity in the other game where the Eagles have a 19-to-1 ratio in tickets written, $35,000 bet on the Eagles and just $410 on the Cowboys."
And that's with no large bets through Friday afternoon. They'll take six times more action over the weekend, and although it's a small sample size of action through five days, it's very accurate with what kind of betting patterns are about to happen. Nothing is going to change the opinion of the masses in the next three days of wagering.
William Hill sports books reported Thursday night that 57 percent of all their NFL Sunday side action was on the Eagles-Cowboys game with 99 percent of the cash siding with the Eagles. William Hill's top bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich said the majority of that action came from one regular bettor who gets extended limits. This particular bettor has bet large money on the Eagles at several different books, including John Avello's Wynn. He's not affiliated with any sharp group, but has been betting most of the football season at several books. So the books are getting his big money on the same side the public is piling on with. this game sticks out like a sore thumb.
Avello's Wynn sports book has a different clientele than most books with their weekend results mostly being about how well three of four of their house players (Whales) fare. The public sides rarely harm them like other books on and off the strip. It's all about the big cash and Avello is staring at eight big decisions already.
"We have a player who has made one play in a bunch of games that make those decisions our biggest," said Avello. "He took the Bears (+3 vs Lions), Chiefs (-10.5 at Giants), Packers (+2 vs Ravens), Rams (+2.5 at Vikings), Browns (+8 vs Jaguars), Redskins (+8 at Saints), Chargers (-5 vs Bills) and Eagles."
Avello liked one of the plays his VIP made and made a good case with the Redskins getting +8 at New Orleans.
"The Saints lost their first two to playoff teams and have now won seven straight (7-0 ATS), and while their offense and defense both look vastly improved, I'm skeptical a bit on them just because the list of teams they beat on that seven-game streak were teams like Tampa, Chicago and Miami. Maybe Carolina is a playoff team, and the Saints beat them, but the thing the Redskins can do most of those teams can't do consistently is score. They went on the road and beat the Seahawks and Rams." Avello labeled two teams as being difficult weekly to post a number on.
"The Chargers are tough to get a proper rating on because they're involved in so many close games," he said. "The Redskins are similar in that way. I think the Chargers will be a popular public team this week just because of how poorly Buffalo has looked in their last two and benching Tyrod Taylor for a rookie QB."
Taylor isn't hurt, but apparently he's getting credit for a defense that allowed 34 points to the Jets and 47 at home to the Saints in their last two losses. Nathan Peterman, the rookie from Pitt, will make his first career start on the road, which rarely turns out well for the rookie. The Chargers have been bet up from -4 to as high as -5.5.
When summing up what his 107 sports books needed for a profitable day, Bogdanovich made it seem like the same risk sheet with the same teams on it is happening every week.
"We know now who they're betting every week, we just need some help from the other teams," he said. "It's getting to be a regular thing the past few weeks where we need the Browns and Giants to cover and also who ever is playing the Eagles and Patriots. The Rams are quickly joining that company, but not as much this week because the Vikings are respected and at home."
The Vikings have been steady 2.5 or 2-point home favorites all week against the Rams. The Rams have won all four road games with the Over also hitting in all of them. Minnesota has gone 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games. Something's got to give in this match-up.
Good luck this week, everyone. Go make some Black Friday cash.
Executive
200% Mid Tennessee St
Chris Jordan
2,000♦ Wizards