Free Picks for Friday, August 11th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
STEELERS VS GIANTS
PLAY: GIANTS -2.5
One of the keys to success in handicapping the NFL preseason is knowing the tendencies of the coaches. That’s certainly in play here as Pittsburgh takes the field against the Giants.
There isn’t much question that Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin puts little if any stock into these meaningless games. All one needs to do is take a quick look at how Pittsburgh has performed in August over the last several seasons.
The Steelers are riding a 3-14 straight up and against the spread record over the last four NFL preseasons. I really don’t see why that’s about to change this summer. Tomlin’s exhibition game planning has been throughly vanilla, as his only real objective has been to get his team ready for September, when the games actually count in the standings.
There isn’t any pattern established yet with Giants head coach Ben McAdoo. But one thing that’s clear is that this camp has been high spirited, to put it mildly. Skirmishes have been breaking out on a daily basis. I can’t guarantee this enthusiasm will show up next Friday against the Steelers. But I sure don’t see it as a negative, as these players are likely to be very much in the mood to hit guys wearing enemy uniforms.
Doc's Sports
49ers vs. Chiefs
Play: 49ers +4
The 49ers have been a mess for the last three years and this will be their fourth new head coach in as many years. Generally, first year head coaches take preseason games more seriously and the 49ers are in desperate need to build a winning culture and that may start during the preseason. Andy Reid is just 32-39 ATS in preseason games and it seems he has taken them less seriously as he has gotten older. The 49ers have the more experienced second-string quarterback and that will allow them to win this game straight-up. Getting this many points is just icing on the cake.
DAVE COKIN
ROCKIES AT MARLINS
PLAY: ROCKIES -112
Quick analysis here. Pretty good mound matchup here with Jon Gray opposing surprising Jose Urena. Not much of an edge either way in that department.
My edge here is on the scheduling. The Rockies enjoyed a day off on Thursday, and I think its fair to say they needed one. Note the stickout stat for Colorado here. The Rockies are 17-6 when returning to action after an off day.
Early money showed on the Colorado side in this game and I have to agree with the accompanying line move. I’ll take the contender vs. the team pretty much playing out the string.
Dave Price
Atlanta vs. St. Louis
Play: St. Louis -144
The St. Louis Cardinals are the hottest team in baseball right now. They have won 6 straight games while scoring a combined 50 runs over their last 5 games, or an average of 10.0 RPG. Look for them to stay hot at the plate against the Atlanta Braves, who are 3-10 in their last 13 games overall, including 0-5 in their last 5 road games. The Cardinals are 9-2 in their last 11 home games. St. Louis is 38-15 in Wainwright's last 53 home starts, and 41-13 in his last 54 starts vs. a team with a losing record. He is 2-0 with a 3.13 ERA in his last 4 starts overall. Wainwright has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 7 of his last 10 starts against Atlanta. The Cardinals are 9-3 in Wainwright's last 12 starts vs. Atlanta. Mike Foltynewicz yielded 7 earned runs in 4 innings of a 10-0 loss to the Cardinals in his last start against them on May 5th. The Braves are 2-7 in their last 9 meetings.
Art Aronson
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 9½
Both of these starting pitchers has looked solid of late and we’re expecting them to battle into the deeper innings.
John Lackey: He’s 9-9 with a 4.81 ERA. Lackey most recently gave up three runs (two earned) off six hits and three walks over five innings in a win over Washington on Saturday. The Cubs’ veteran has now won four straight decisions.
Taijuan Walker: He’s 6-5 with a 3.60 ERA. Walker gave up three earned runs over six frames while also going on to strike out six in a no-decision against San Francisco on Saturday. Note that he’s 5-2 with a 3.99 ERA in all “night” games this year.
The bottom line: Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that runs will likely be at a premium in this one.
Marc Lawrence
Bucs vs. Bengals
Play: Bucs +2
Edges - Bucs: 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS preseason in this series… Bengals: 3-11 SUATS preseason vs NFC South, including 1-5 SUATS at home… With the Bucs a stellar 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 preseason away games against AFC opponents, we recommend a 1* play on Tampa Bay.
Jack Jones
Indians vs. Rays
Play: Rays +125
The Tampa Bay Rays are actually tied with the Seattle Mariners for the second wild card spot in the American League. They are treating this series with the Cleveland Indians as their biggest of the season. They have won each of their last three meetings with Cleveland, including a 4-1 victory in Game 1 yesterday.
Jacob Faria has been awesome this year for the Rays. He has gone 5-2 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 11 starts, and the Rays have gone 8-3 in those games. He is much better than he's getting credit for here by the oddsmakers.
Conversely, Carlos Carrasco is getting too much respect. He is 10-5 with a 4.06 ERA in 22 starts this year, but just 0-1 with a 7.90 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in his last three starts. He has allowed 10 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts. He gave up 5 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings in his only start against the Rays in 2017 back on May 15th.
The Indians are 0-6 in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Cleveland is 1-4 in Carrasco's last five starts. Carrasco is winless since the All-Star Break and has allowed at least five runs in three of his past five starts.
John Martin
Orioles vs. Athletics
Play: Orioles -102
The Baltimore Orioles have a lot more at stake right now than the Oakland A's. They are just 1.5 games back in the wild card race, while the A's have the second-worst record in the AL at 50-65. Oakland has lost three straight and five of its last seven coming in. Ubaldo Jimenez has been resurrected since the All-Star Break. He is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in his last three starts. He has given up 2 earned runs or fewer in four of his seven previous starts against the A's. He allowed 2 earned runs in 8 innings of a 5-2 victory for the Orioles in his last start against Oakland. The Orioles are 6-1 in Jimenez's last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record. The A's are 0-4 in their last four home games.
Brian Hay
Orioles vs. A's
Play: A's -104
Baltimore will trot righty Ubaldo Jimenez to the mound tonight. Jimenez has a 5-7 record this year with a ballooning 6.31 ERA. Oakland will go with righty Paul Blackburn tonight. Blackburn has a 3-1 record this year with a 2.60 ERA. The Orioles are 3-9 in their last 12 during game two of a series and 1-10 in their last 11 Friday games. Baltimore is also 2-5 in Jimenez’s last seven road starts and 2-6 in Jimenez’s last eight starts with four days’ rest. Oakland is 21-44 in their last 65 Friday games. The A's are 4-1 in Blackburn’s last five starts on grass. Blackburn has not given up a run in two of his last three starts.
Frank Jordan
San Francisco vs. Kansas City
Play: Kansas City -3.5
This only seems like a decent match up to see the young players on each team battle it out in the second half. San Francisco finished up 2016 with a 2-14 record and just 1-7 on the road. San Francisco was 0-4 against the AFC last season, allowed the most points (480) and worst point differential with at -171. Kansas City went 12-4 in 2016 and tied for top spot in the AFC West, but going 6-0 in the division gave them the division crown. Kansas City has some unfinished business after the big finish to the regular season they lost an ugly low scoring game to Pittsburgh at home and failed to get deep into the playoffs again. Andy Reid is going to have the Chiefs in shape and ready to go especially at home to feed off the home faithful as they take this game wire to wire showing they are once again a threat in the AFC and San Francisco is rebuilding.
Jim Feist
Padres at Dodgers
Pick: Over
San Diego is 20-5-2 over the total when playing the NL West division. Struggling Clayton Richard (5-12, 5.17 ERA) is on the mound and faces a powerhouse LA Dodger offense. Richard has allowed 28 runs his last 6 starts (29 innings) and 49 hits. San Diego is on an 18-7-1 run over the total and plays a L.A. team on a 19-6-1 run over at home against losing teams.
Robert Ferringo
Steelers at Giants
Play: Under 37
I like this spot for a lower-scoring game. There is a lot of offensive firepower on these two rosters. The problem is, none of it is going to see the field. Big Ben, Eli, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham; none of them are going to get any significant action in this one. As such, this total strikes me as high for two pretty physical teams with defense-first pedigrees. Pittsburgh went just 1-3 against the total last preseason and they are 5-11 in their last four preseasons. It's been a similar run for the Giants, going 1-3 against the total last year and 2-6 in the past two seasons. They are just 5-8 against the total the last three years. The last two times these two played in the preseason the games were 20-16 and 18-13, both going 'under'. I think the public is going to flock to the 'over' here, but this number is starting to drop at a lot of books and that tells me all I need to know.
Strike Point Sports
Boston at New York
Play: Over 9.5
Boston holds a slim lead over the Yankees, but these two teams face each other quite a bit over the next couple of weeks so the battle for the division lead could change hands a couple of times. The Yankees acquired Jaime Garcia at the trade deadline and he has had a tough time lately, pitching for three different teams. Garcia has allowed 35 runs over his last 8 starts, and I think he will have a tough time with the Red Sox lineup that has been playing well recently. Eduardo Rodriguez will be on the bump for Boston, and he is 3-3 with a 4.59 ERA on the road this season. Rodriguez hasn't faced the Yankees yet this season, but he hasn't been very sharp lately as he has allowed 20 runs over his last 5 starts and I think the Bronx bombers will give him fits. I think the line will be around 9, and this game will be in double digits. Take the over in this one.
Dave Essler
Houston vs. Texas
Play: Texas +110
We won last night fading Houston and we're going to do it again. The Rangers had last night off while the Astros were losing in the late innings on the road, to the White Sox. That doesn't diminish the Houston potential, but their record against LHP's (the arm Hamels uses) is merely mortal, at 15-16. Yes, Springer is back and he's also 0-11 against Hamels, who has a season-long 1.07 WHIP and is 4-0 with a .208 batting average against at home. The rested Texas bullpen has a WHIP of 0.86 over the last week - while Houston's pen was used and gagged one as recently as last night. I'd admit that Morton has bitten me in the ass on more than one occasion - but the situation is right for Texas to win a lower scoring game.