Brad Diamond
Giants vs. Nationals
Play:Nationals -161
Giants (46-70) after a home win yesterday face an infrequent rival Washington (67-45) on the east coast. The Nationals have won 4 straight in the series, 5-of-6 at home. San Francisco comes in 11-27 vs. RHP, 26-53 off a win and 5-17 vs. the NLE. Also, they are poor travelers at 19-40. With the Nationals 15-6 vs. the NLW and 4-1 w/Jackson on the hill, the play is...Washington!
Mike Lundin
Indians vs. Rays
Play: Rays +1½
I think the Tampa Bay Rays are worth a shot on the runline when they host the Cleveland Indians for the second contest of a four-game set Friday night.
Jake Faria (5-2, 2.81 ERA) will take the ball for the Rays. The 24 year old rookie has been terrific all season. He was unfortunate to be charged with the loss his last time out despite holding Milwaukee to one run on four hits while punching out nine through six innings. Faria is 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA in five home starts on the season.
The Tribe turn to Carlos Carrasco (10-5, 4.06 ERA). They've lost four of his last five starts, and the right-hander has been tagged with 10 runs on 12 hits and five walks in just 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts combined. He gave up five runs on six hits while lasting only 3 2/3 innings when he took on the Rays earlier this year.
The Indians are 0-6 in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Rays are 4-1 in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Tampa Bay might very well win this game outright, but take the extra run and a half as an insurance.
Brian Hay
Orioles vs. A's
Play: A's -104
Baltimore will trot righty Ubaldo Jimenez to the mound tonight. Jimenez has a 5-7 record this year with a ballooning 6.31 ERA. Oakland will go with righty Paul Blackburn tonight. Blackburn has a 3-1 record this year with a 2.60 ERA. The Orioles are 3-9 in their last 12 during game two of a series and 1-10 in their last 11 Friday games. Baltimore is also 2-5 in Jimenez’s last seven road starts and 2-6 in Jimenez’s last eight starts with four days’ rest. Oakland is 21-44 in their last 65 Friday games. The A's are 4-1 in Blackburn’s last five starts on grass. Blackburn has not given up a run in two of his last three starts.
Eric Schroeder
My free play is in the NFL preseason, something I rarely look for when it comes to premium plays. But tonight, I see value in the game between the Bengals and Buccaneers (as you see above) and I also like the New York Giants to take care of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
I mean, it's a comp play, so why not, right?
This will be the Giants’ first action since losing to the Green Bay Packers in the final game of the wild card matchups seven months ago. And while many of the players who will take the field are trying to make the team, the theme around camp has been to put the loss out of their minds and start this campaign with a winnning attitude.
That begins tonight at home against the Steelers.
While Eli Manning will sit out tonight, there is something to be said about the battle between Josh Johnson and Geno Smith for the backup position. While Johnson has the inside track, Smith will be looking to prove he is up for the gig after tearing his ACL last October as a member of the New York Jets.
I also read the offensive line is extremely improved, and will be a strong point for this team this season. This unit will be a focal point, whether it is protecting Johnson or Smith.
Look for the Giants to air things out and the passing game to lead the way. Now, this is preseason, so I don't really care one way or another if you lay the 3 1/2 points, or buy the half point. Come the regular season with my premium plays, I will insist this practice. Tonight you're on your own to decide.
Take New York.
2* GIANTS
Scott Rickenbach
Pirates at Blue Jays
Play: Over 8.5
The Jays Marcus Stroman has given up 24 hits in his last 18 and 1/3 innings. He also walked 6 in less than 5 innings in his most recent home start. Toronto's win over the Yankees yesterday stayed under the total but 7 of the Blue Jays prior 10 games went over the total. The Pirates got a big win at Detroit yesterday and that was their 3rd straight over. Jameson Taillon gets the start for Pittsburgh here and, overall, he has struggled since the All Star Break. Taillon has allowed 39 hits in 23 and 1/3 innings of work spanning his last 5 starts. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Taillon's last 3 starts with 20 runs (19 earned) allowed in only 13 innings of work. With both starters a little "shaky" of late and with this total dropping from a 9 to an 8.5 the value is clearly with the over in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +9½ over MONTREAL
Before we begin, we’re not going to pull the trigger on this one until after dinner at which time we’ll decide whether or not it’s worth it. We anticipate more line movement and therefore we’ll update this choice after dinner. For now, this is an unofficial wager with a strong lean to the dog.
The dust has settled on rumor and innuendo surrounding Argonauts quarterback Ricky Ray's status for Week 8. He's out. Any time a team loses their starting QB there is an immediate reaction in the market and this case is no different. The line opened with the Argos getting 7-points on the road in Montreal. That line was quickly bet up to 10½ in anticipation of Jeff Mathews making his first start of the season. However, the Cornell grad has played in this league before, starting five games for the Tiger-Cats in 2015. He went 2-3 with six touchdowns and while his numbers won't win any awards, it's not like he's a fish completely out of the water. Mathews will have the support of his teammates as well and we've all seen it before. When a star player goes down, the rest of the team steps it up during adverse conditions. Let us not also forget that the Boatmen are now led by former Al's brass GM Jim Popp and head coach Marc Trestman. While we've been critical of Popp in the past, his hiring of Trestman in Toronto was a stroke of genius. Trestman might not have been NFL worthy but he could have made a living as a coordinator. In the CFL, Trestman has a track record that cannot be beaten. He went to three Grey Cups with Montreal in five years, winning two before leaving for the Chicago Bears. Popp, meanwhile, was shown the door after being with the reborn Als since their return to Montreal in 1996. Both guys would likely love to take a shot at their former team. Had Popp stayed in Montreal, it's very likely Trestman would have returned to the City of Saints.
The Alouettes haven't been a 10-point favorite against the Argos since Anthony Calvillio retired. In their last 10 meetings, neither team has come close to being a double digit dog, but here we are. For the Alouettes, not playing last week must have erased the memories of the market because this team has no business being favored in this range against Jeff Mathews or anyone else the Argos could prop up behind center. The last time we saw the Als they blew a 12-point lead in 100 seconds, losing to the Blue Bombers. Not only did Montreal lose the game but they also lost safety Chris Ackie and left guard Phil Blake. Injuries are an issue for any team, especially one being asked to cover a spread like this. The Als have lost four of their last five games and have only been the chalk once this season and that was in their season opener against the Roughriders as a seven-point choice. The Als did not come close to covering and only won the game because Saskatchewan missed a field goal with time running out. Montreal emerged with a one-point victory. The final reason to back the Argos here is because of the relatively low total of 46½, which would be like a total in the low 30s in the NFL. For comparison, the Bombers/Ti-Cats total is 59½ while BC and Saskatchewan is 55½. With a low total, covering double digits becomes even more difficult. Factor in the overreaction to Ray's absence and the subsequent line movement because of it and we know what to do here. Take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta +127 over ST. LOUIS
Mike Foltynewicz has 34 K’s over his past 28 frames. He opened a lot of eyes with the skills growth he displayed in the second half of 2016 and has followed that up with several dominating performances this season. In his last start, Foltynewicz struck out 11 batters over six innings and didn’t allow a run. Throw in a 13% swing and miss rate, a 3.57 xERA over his last 10 starts and Mike Foltynewicz is well on his way to becoming the great pitcher he was projected to be. He’s still under the radar, which presents this very good buying opportunity.
St. Louis Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright was activated from the 10-day disabled list on Sunday, Aug. 6 to pitch against the Reds. On August 6th, Wainwright continued his mostly disappointing season. He was pulled after three innings, having yielded four hits, five walks and three earned runs but we’re going to take you back to that start because Wainwright was very lucky that he didn’t allow a bunch more runs in the first inning.
The Reds scored three first inning runs and had the bases loaded with nobody out. Wainwright had thrown 44 pitches up to that point without recording an out but then an extremely lucky double play allowed Wainwright to escape without further damage. Matt Carpenter scooped up a shot down the first base line, stepped on first (thus removing the force at home) then a perfect throw to home completed the double-play, otherwise that inning might have been the ugliest one in Wainwright’s career. He struggled for two more innings before being removed with 88 pitches thrown in three innings. Wainwright continues to regress. His spotty command throughout and hard hit balls allowed does not reflect in his surface stats. There aren’t many starters that require more TLC than Wainwright does right now but you’ll pay a serious premium to back him here.
MIAMI +108 over Colorado
Jose Urena has upgraded his control by doing a better job of getting ahead in the count and pounding the zone. He has thrown his best pitch more often (slider: 13% swing and miss rate) but hasn’t been able to find a way to translate his raw stuff, including a 96 mph fastball and decent change-up (12% swing and miss rate) into more strikeouts. Urena has just 79 K’s in 114 frames but he has struck out 21 over his past 28 innings so the increase in K’s suggest he’s trending the right way in that department. Urena has good stuff and is at the right age (25) to turn that good stuff into better numbers. He’s also been very good at home with a ERA/xERA split of 3.49/3.74.
Jonathan Gray comes in with a 4.94 overall ERA but his road ERA (strangely enough) is an unsightly 6.67. Last year was much of the same for Gray and so, too, was his rookie season. Last year, one could blame his first half hr/f bad luck or his 2nd half unlucky hit% or his equally unlucky full year strand percentage for his elevated ERA. Actually, one could blame those things in his rookie season too and this year as well. See where we’re going here? Perhaps it’s not all bad luck that ails Gray. This dude keeps giving up runs in bunches and that’s because the movement on his pitches are weak. Yeah he throws hard and yeah he’s never lived up to his promise but his very weak 5% swing and miss rate this year does not even come close to supporting his 50 K’s in 51 innings. What Jonathan Gray is really good at is giving up hard hit balls that are thrown right down the middle of the plate. Furthermore, when the Rockies play in a pitcher’s park, they often produce the same results as teams like Oakland and Cincinnati on the road. Wrong side favored.
Boston +126 over N.Y. YANKEES
This line makes no sense. The Red Sox have the better starter here, they’re the hottest team in baseball with eight wins in a row while the Yanks are seeing BB gun pellets and have lost seven of 10, including getting shut out by Marco Estrada last night in Toronto. While the Red Sox have scored 62 runs over their past 10 games, the Yanks have scored 36 over that same span which includes 11 in one game.
Jaime Garcia pinballed from Atlanta to Minnesota to New York in the space of a week. Still, moving from a rebuilding team to a team fighting for a division title probably helped his energy level but it’s not going to do a thing for his skills. Garcia used to have fine control, but it’s been creeping up lately and his low first-pitch strike rate doesn’t exactly give hope for a turnaround. Garcia’s been a groundball pitcher his whole career. Good thing, since Yankee Stadium doesn’t smile on fly balls, with +46% LH HR/+25% RH HR. Pitching for the Yanks, Garcia could be in line for some wins but with numbers trending the wrong way, there could be some rocky outings and this could sure be one of them. Garcia has a mere K/BB ratio of 2-1 with 96 K’s and 48 walks issued over 124 innings. Since switching over to the AL from the NL, he has walked seven batters in 11 innings with an xERA of 6.11. Despite the pennant-chasing environment, backing Garcia brings too much risk, especially in this spot against the Red Sox.
Eduardo Rodriguez tweaked his right knee while warming up in the bullpen prior to his June 1 start at Baltimore. That is the same knee that he dislocated in 2016, which resulted in his 1st half getting washed out by that dislocated kneecap that whacked his mechanics, but 29 K’s in the final 17 innings put a strong coda on his 2nd half rebound. Rodriguez has made just four starts since being injured back on June 1. He’s struck out 89 batters in 82 frames overall and appears to be getting stronger. Rodriguez brings risk because he’s been so inconsistent but all told, he gives up less than a hit per inning (72 hits allowed in 82 frames) and his K-rate remains among the elite. We’re investing.
San Francisco +156 over WASHINGTON
Giants RHP Chris Stratton started the team's game Saturday, August 5, against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Before that start, manager Bruce Bochy said, ”This won't be a one-time deal” as Matt Cain was bumped to the bullpen. Stratton allowed five hits and two runs over five innings. The struggles of both pitchers have been discussed in this space before, as the Giants continue to deal with the absence of Johnny Cueto (blister, and more recently, a flexor strain). Stratton himself was on the DL with a calf strain and was activated to make that aforementioned second career start prior to the August 5 contest. In his starting pitching debut a month ago, he pitched into the seventh inning, giving up five earned runs and walking five in a loss to Detroit. In 19 total innings this year, Stratton has 12 punch-outs with as many walks in a small sample size.
Stratton’s results are a far cry from his initial 2012 first-round draft profile that projected him as a possible #2 starter. Stratton’s slider and change both rank as average pitches with improving shape on the change. There’s a fringe-average curve in there that Stratton seemed to feature during his call-up last season. He does show good movement on the fastball and he can locate it well around the zone but has more control than command at this stage. At 6’3” and 190 pounds, the frame allows Stratton to pitch through lineups and he it gives him a shot to stick as a starter but for this one game, he’s the best starter going out there. Yeah, San Fran could lose but Edwin Jackson priced in this range is preposterous.
Back in mid-July, the Nationals passed on one of their pitching prospects and instead called up the veteran Edwin Jackson. Jackson has not had an xERA below four since 2013 and its risen every year since then. He started 2017 in the minors before getting a brief chance with Baltimore. There he appeared in three games, threw five innings and compiled a 9.68 xERA with 3.6 K’s/9. Obviously that was a small sample size but not being able to crack the Orioles rotation is all the incentive we need to fade Jackson. Jackson is now a well-travelled journeyman/innings-eater for rotations that have been savaged by injuries. Regardless of the trend your eyes land on, Jackson’s control, command, OPS vR and disaster starts have all been trending wrong for years. His nickname, Suitcase has been well-earned. The Giants have underachieved all season but with no pressure and now playing the role of the spoiler, they are loose and playing well. Last year’s Giants would have likely been favored in this spot with this starting pitching matchup but 12 months later, they are taking back one of the biggest prices on the board and again, it’s preposterous.
Will Rogers
Red Sox at Yankees
Pick: Yankees -133
The set-up: The Red Sox got an off day Thursday and now visit the Bronx for an important three-game series with the hated NY Yankees. Boston will take an eight-game winning streak into this series, which has allowed them to open up a 4 1/2 game lead over New York in the AL East. Boston leads the AL with a 3.63 team ERA and watched its staff dominate of late, with three or fewer runs allowed in each of the last five games. "We've continued to pitch consistently, and that will be the key for us," Red Sox manager John Farrell told reporters after an 8-2 win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday." The Yankees got shut out 4-0 by the Jays on Thursday and enter this series having dropped six of their last nine games.
The pitching matchup: Eduardo Rodriguez (4-3 & 4.08 ERA) goes for Boston and Jaime Garcia (5-8 & 4.49 ERA) makes his second start as a Yankee. Rodriguez held the Chicago White Sox to two runs on four hits in six innings last Friday (Boston won 3-2), recording his first quality start in four chances since coming off the disabled list. Rodriguez is seeing New York for the first time this season but is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA in seven career starts versus the Yankees. Garcia suffered a 7-2 loss in his New York debut last Friday, when he was ripped for six runs - five earned - on five hits and four walks in 4 2/3 innings at Cleveland. He will be making his third AL start after beginning the season in Atlanta and getting traded to Minnesota before moving over to the Yankees. Garcia has never faced Boston.
The pick: These fierce, longtime rivals face each other 10 times in the next four weeks, starting tonight. Garcia is getting his introduction to this Red Sox/Yankees rivalry and New York needs him to come up big. This marks the nine-year vet's first career start at Yankee Stadium. The bet says he rises to the challenge.
Larry Ness
New York at Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia -102
The Mets opened a four-game series in Philadelphia last night, having gone just 3-10 in their previous 13 games, while averaging a woeful 2.4 runs in the team's 10 losses. However, as they have been for the Mets the last two-plus seasons, the Phillies were just what the doctored ordered for the New York bats. The Mets had 13 hits, including four HRs, as they matched their offensive output from the previous five games combined in a 10-0 rout on Thursday. The victory makes the Mets 33-15 against the Phillies since the start of the 2015 season. The loss snapped a modest three-game winning streak for a team with MLB's worst record (42-70).
Seth Lugo (5-3, 4.55 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets, while Nick Pivetta (4-7, 5.89 ERA) goes for the Phillies. The issue for Lugo is that although he somehow owns a 4-2 road record, he owns a 5.26 road ERA with opponents batting .309 against him. Lugo settled for a no-decision in his only start against Philadelphia last September, yielding three runs in five innings. Pivetta finished July with a strong showing in a home win against Atlanta (6 IP/ 3 hits / 1 ER) but was pummeled for eight runs (six earned) on seven hits across only 2 2/3 innings in Saturday's 8-5 loss at Colorado. However, the rookie has been much more comfortable at home, posting a 3.89 ERA and .223 batting average against as opposed to 7.47 ERA and .298 BAA on the road. Pivetta baffled the Mets in New York back on July 2, giving up only one hit (a solo HR) over seven innings to get the 7-1 win.
Yes, the Mets have dominated their NL East rivals since the start of 2015 but I much prefer Pivetta over Lugo in this matchup.
Scott Rickenbach
Reds vs. Brewers
Play: Reds +180
One of the biggest favorites on the board Friday is Milwaukee. The team with the longest current losing streak in the majors is...you guessed it...Milwaukee! Now I know that Homer Bailey has had plenty of issues with the Reds but he is one of those guys that is truly a "hit or miss" pitcher. The point being that when is "on" he is "really on" and when he is "off" he is nothing short of horrible. The reason I am willing to invest in Bailey and the Reds here is the exceptional value in fading a team mired in a losing streak as well as a couple of other key factors. Cincinnati's Bailey has allowed a total of just 2 earned runs in the 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 2 starts at Milwaukee. The Brewers have scored an average of just 2.3 runs per game in their last 14 games! Amazingly, Milwaukee has scored more than 4 runs ZERO times in those 14 games! Bailey, prior to getting rocked in his most recent start, had allowed 2 earned runs or less in 4 of his 6 prior starts! He allowed a total of only 5 earned runs in those 4 outings. You can see he is capable of going into "shutdown" mode against teams and the Brewers just are not hitting well at all as you can see from the numbers above. The Reds have quietly gone 7-4 in their last 11 games and have scored an average of 5.5 runs per game during this stretch. Milwaukee is an ugly 3-7 this season (and 25-39 the last 3 seasons combined) when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. As you can see, this one has great potential for a big dog upset.
Brandon Lee
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Cubs +112
Chicago is worth a look here as a rare underdog in Friday's series opener at Arizona. I see this as a tough spot for the Diamondbacks, who just finished up a huge 3-game series at home against the Dodgers. Arizona won the opener then dropped the final 2 by a combined 3 runs. Prior to that they lost 2 of 3 to the Gaints. Chicago lost 2 of 3 at home to ARizona to start out August and will be out for revenge here. Starter John Lackey has pitched well of late with a 3.37 ERA in his last 3 starts and owns a solid 2.75 ERA in 5 career starts against the Diamondbacks (5-0 team record). Lackey got an extra day and is working on 5 days rest. Chicago's 7-3 this season when he's working on 5 or 6 days of rest. They are also 8-3 in his 11 starts following a team loss last time out.
Doug Upstone
Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Play: Cleveland -129
Though Tampa Bay won last night, their offense has been colder than the beer at your favorite watering hole, which places them in a poor spot tonight. Home underdogs like the Rays with a money line of +100 or higher, batting .175 or worse over their last three games, against opponent batting .225 or worse over their last 10 games, are a miserable 15-47 the past 20 years in this rare situation.
Darryl Tucholski
Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -190
Last time the Brewers faced Bailey, they put up 6 ER and 3 homeruns in 3 innings. This is one of those must win types of games, as the Brewers have found themselves sinking out of NL Central contention. Ryan Braun is 13-39 against Bailey. Bailey also has a career 4.93 ERA against the Brewers.
Chase Diamond
Royals vs. White Sox
Play:White Sox +127
This game features the 57-57 Royals at the 44-68 White Sox. Early this season the White Sox were a cash cow hitting great for plus money wins and are starting to do that again winning 3 straight games and tonight sending one of the top pitching prospects in Baseball to the mound in Reynaldo Lopez. Royals are fading fast 2-8 last 10 and losers of 4 straight and off a super emotional rival in the Cardinals. I expect them to have trouble in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
Giants vs. Nationals
Play: Nationals -1½
If you feel comfortable laying the juice, go ahead and roll the money line on Washington. I however think there's a big enough edge here to roll the dice and play the Nationals to win by at least two on the run line.
Both teams are 4-1 over their last 5, but San Francisco's recent success all came at home and this will mark the first time they have left the state of California since playing in Detroit over the 4th of July. On top of that, it's a long trip out to the east coast. Keep in mind the Giants are a mere 19-38 away from home on the season.
I also give a big edge to the Nationals on the mound. Edwin Jackson has taken advantage of the opportunity, posting a respectable 3.75 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 4 starts since joining the rotation on 7/18. Two times he's went 7 innings and allowed 2 or fewer runs. He gave up 4 runs in 5 innings in his last start at the Cubs, but only allowed 6 hits, didn't walk a single batter and struck out 8. San Fancisco counters with Chris Stratton, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in two starts, which includes an awful 9 walks to just 5 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings of work.