Kyle Hunter
White Sox at Rangers
Play: Rangers -1.5
I have to fade James Shields here. I'm never excited to back Andrew Cashner, but he has done a nice job limiting hard contact in his last few starts. For a long time, Cashner was walking way too many guys, but he has just one walk in his last two starts. He faces a White Sox team that doesn't walk, especially against right handed pitching. This White Sox lineup is one of the five worst in the majors against righties. Cashner has allowed 3 runs or less in each of his last six starts. James Shields is terrible. Shields is fade worthy nearly every time out there. His weighted on base average allowed to lefties this year is a ridiculous .444. Shields has allowed 13 home runs to lefties in just 30 innings pitched against them. Overall, he's allowing 2.36 homers per nine innings. Expect some bombs from Texas here. The White Sox bullpen is dead last in xFIP in the past month. They traded away key bullpen arms, and this bullpen is struggling in a big way now. The Rangers have a rare bullpen advantage.
Stephen Nover
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -122
Injuries not talent has been what has held Drew Pomeranz back. Pomeranz has been healthy the past two months and it has shown in his stats. He's given up three earned runs or less in 10 of his past 11 starts. It's not a fluke either. The talent is there backed by strong peripherals. Pomeranz has averaged more than one strikeout per inning.
Boston is 7-2 in Pomeranz's last nine starts.
Jordan Montgomery can't match that. New York is 1-6 the past seven times Montgomery has faced an above .500 team.
The Yankees beat up on the battered Mets, but are stepping way up in class here. Boston has won eight of its last nine home games. The Red Sox also have won the last four times Pomeranz faced the Yankees.
Bruce Marshall
Yankees at Red Sox
Pick: Red Sox
The Yankees are running out of time to make a move on the Red Sox in the AL East, but after losing a home series to the Bosox last weekend, not sure things work out any better at Fenway Park. The Yanks haven't gotten more than 5 1/3 IP from Jordan Montgomery in any of his last three starts, while Drew Pomeranz continues to impress for the Bosox, with three straight quality starts, and Sox wins in 7 of his last 9 starts.
Power Sports
Angels vs. Orioles
Pick:Angels +122
he Halos are the better team here. In an EIGHT-team race - where everyone is separated by just three games - they are the ones that currently hold the coveted second Wild Card in the American League. It was just a couple of weeks ago that I proclaimed them ready to race to the front of the pack. Not only do they have the better record here, their run differential is significantly better than that of the Orioles. While this all-important series does take place in Baltimore, note that that home team has barely outscored its opponents this season at Camden Yards. My recommendation is to take the underdog on the money line.
Last week saw the Angels take two of three from the O's in Anaheim. It was a fairly even series and Baltimore would go on to finish 4-6 on its West Coast trip. Both teams had yday off, so no advantage there. But it is interesting to note that while the Angels swept the Mariners (in Seattle) last weekend, the Orioles just dropped two of three there this week. The O's are 25-35 off a loss this season.
Looking at the pitching matchup, the Angels will turn to Andrew Healy, who is making his season debut here after Tommy John surgery. Somehow this Angels rotation (despite no big names) has been able to hold things together. It helps to have a bullpen that is 7th in ERA (in all of MLB) and third in wins w/ 24. While you may consider Healy to be a question mark, I have little faith in Orioles starter Jeremy Hellickson here as he has a 4.50 ERA in three starts since coming over from Philadelphia. Last time out, he was rocked for six runs (by the A's!) and he also lost to the Angels 10 days ago.
MIKE ANTHONY
Washington vs. San Diego
Play: Washington -200
The San Diego Padres will be bringing out right-hander Luis Perdomo for Friday's game. He is 1-1 with a 6.27 ERA and 9 strikeouts in his last 2 appearances facing the Washington Nationals. The Padres are going to have a tough time here facing one of the best pitchers in baseball. Set to start for the Washington Nationals is right-hander Max Scherzer. He has been above average when pitching against the San Diego Padres, posting a 2-1 record with a 2.69 ERA and 54 strikeouts. He is 12-5 on the season with a 2.25 ERA. The Nationals squeaked out a 2-1 win with just four hits last night but we expect a much more dominant showing from them tonight.
BRANDON LEE
Angels vs. Orioles
Play:Orioles -131
Baltimore is worth a look here as a short home favorite with what I feel is a strong edge on the mound. The fact that LA has won 7 of their last 8 games is keeping this line lower than it should be. Angels are sending out Andrew Heaney, who is making his first start since April of last year. There's going to be some rust here and the Orioles lineup is not one you want to make mistakes to, especially at home, where they have hit 87 homers in 58 games. Baltimore will send out Jeremy Hellickson, who had a rough go of things in his last start at Oakland, but was sharp in his previous two starts, including a home outing against the Royals where he pitched 7 shutout innings. I expect him to rebound here. LA has just 13 hits in their last 3 games (Baltimore has 34 in their last 3).
BRAD DIAMOND
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Yankees +109
Normally, would not go against the Sox in Fenway when playing a hated rival but, the Yankees have won 4 straight and show inside a major revenge game. In 23 starts Lefty Pomeranz (12-4, 3.39) of Boston has surrendered 4 or more earned runs just 4 times, remarkable. He's coming off 6-2/3s at New York last week allowing 7 hits and 3 earned runs. The Yankees use talented young Lefty Montgomery (7-6, 3.94) who I believe will make his mark shortly in the league. He has been limited in innings lately with 10-1/3 innings overall the L2 starts vs. Boston and Cleveland. He allowed just 5 hits and 3 earned runs against high-level competition, however. This is a MAJOR REVENGE EDITION for both the Yankees and Montgomery, considering Pomeranz has won 4 straight vs. the Bronx Bombers.....No matter, we like the value and the Sox tonight to reverse recent history.
DOUG UPSTONE
Cardinals vs. Pirates
Play: Cardinals -120
No other way to put it, the Pittsburgh bullpen blew it in losing to St. Louis last night 11-7. This does not bold well for tonight as NL home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for six or more earned runs are 8-39 ATS the past two decades.
DAVE PRICE
New York at Miami
Play: Miami -103
The New York Mets were just swept by their crosstown rivals in the New York Yankees in four games last series. They certainly won't be nearly as motivated to face the Marlins as they were the Yankees. This is a Mets team that is just playing out the string and ready to be done with the season. The Marlins continue to surge toward .500. They have gone 5-1 in their last 6 games overall to get to 58-61 on the year. They have scored at least 4 runs in 6 consecutive games. They should stay hot at the plate against New York's Chris Flexen, who is 2-1 with a 7.02 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in 4 starts this year. He has already allowed 13 earned runs, 13 hits and 12 walks in 16 2/3 innings pitched this year. Miami is 8-2 in Justin Nicolino's last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record. New York is 1-7 in its last 8 home games.
JIMMY BOYD
Cardinals vs. Pirates
Play:Cardinals -120
I was on the wrong end of the Pirates meltdown yesterday, as Pittsburgh blew an early 5-1 lead in a 7-11 loss at home to St Louis. The Cardinals' offense bailed out starter Adam Wainwright, who lasted just 3 innings. St Louis totaled 15 hits for the game, giving them 10 or more hits in each of their last 5 games and 9 of their last 11 overall. I look for the offense to stay hot against Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams, who has a 4.14 ERA and 1.240 WHIP in 18 starts. Williams' only career start against the Cardinals came on July 16th. He allowed just 2 runs in 5 2/3 innings, but was fortunate it wasn't a lot worse. Williams gave up 10 hits and 2 walks, which is just over 2 runners on base/inning.
On top of that, St Louis is sending out their ace in Carlos Martinez, who is one of the best the NL has to offer. Martinez has a strong 3.56 ERA and sensational 1.199 WHIP in 24 starts. Most importantly, he's had little problem keeping the Pirates' bats in check of late. In his last 5 starts against Pittsburgh, he's allowed just 7 runs. In his last 3 starts at PNC, he's only given up 3 runs in 22 2/3 innings of work.
JOHN MARTIN
Arizona at Minnesota
Play: Arizona -112
The Minnesota Twins just played a double-header yesterday against the Cleveland Indians. They will be spent, while the Arizona Diamondbacks will be the fresher, more focused team. Zack Godley has posted the best numbers of all Arizona starters. He is 5-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 17 starts with 109 K's in 106 2/3 innings. Ervin Santana hasn't been as good as his overall numbers would suggest because he's been one of the luckiest starters this season on balls in play. He has a 4.01 ERA in 12 home starts this year. I think Santana gets lit up against a potent Arizona lineup that scores 5.0 runs/game against right-handed starters this season. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 interleague games, and 6-0 in their last six vs. AL Central foes. Arizona is 8-2 in Godley's last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Twins are 28-57 in their last 85 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 8-18 in Santana's last 26 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
ANDRE RAMIREZ
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -119
The Red Sox have some momentum at this point and took two of three from the Yankees last weekend in the Bronx. Pomeranz is on a roll right now as he set a career high for wins in a season thanks to the victory in his last start. Montgomery is scuffling a bit as perhaps he’s hitting a bit of that rookie wall as the season winds down. Boston had the benefit of having Thursday off to rest while the Yankees had to play a game and potentially tax their bullpen. Look for Boston to take advantage and take the opener of this series.
Eric Schroeder
My free play is on the San Francisco Giants over the Philadelphia Phillies. And in this game I don't want you listing pitchers, as it won't matter.
The Phils arrived in Frisco, after losing their series to the San Diego Padres, including a free play I gave you right here in this exact same spot, in the series-finale. Last night I gave you the Giants, and tonight I'm back on them.
Yes, I know the Giants are in last place in the National League West, and I know they're just 28-32 at home. But they were obviously relieved to get home after a road trip that ended with Wednesday's 8-1 thumping at the hands of the Miami Marlins.
The only team worse than the Giants in the National League, is the Phillies, who are 43-76 this season, and who have lost seven of 11.
Philly is 19-45 on the road, as it is one of only two teams in the bigs with less than 20 road wins, along with Oakland's 19.
All Frisco.
4* GIANTS
Jack Brayman
My free play tonight is out of the American League, as I like the Tampa Bay Rays to get it done tonight against the Seattle Mariners tonight. And on your ticket I want you listing both pitchers, Erasmo Ramirez and Austin Pruitt.
Ramirez is facing the team that traded him back July 28, and he's still working himself in the Mariners’ rotation. The right-hander has lost his only decision. He is 0-1 with a 4.40 ERA in three starts, and while I know he is coming off his best outing - six innings with three hits and one run against the Angels - I think he struggles in this one.
Instead, I like Pruitt, who turned in a quality start his last time out, against the Indians, and has really turned a corner recently. Over his last three starts and 18.1 innings, the right-hander boasts a 1.96 ERA while he has walked just three batters.
Take the Rays and list both tonight.
1* RAYS
Brad Wilton
Tonight's comp play will be Yankees-Red Sox Under the total.
True, 2 of the 3 series meetings in the Bronx last weekend did play Over the total, but the Under in the series still stands at 4-2 the last 6 times these teams have played one another.
The New York offense has been largely based in fits and starts, and I do not trust them to hang a big number on Drew Pomeranz and the Sox.
Pomeranz allowed 3 runs to the Yanks last week, and has allowed 3 runs or fewer in 5 straight and 9 of his last 10.
Jordan Montgomery has not gone deep over his last pair of starts, as the Yanks monitor his pitch count, but he has held both Cleveland and Boston to just 2 runs over his last 10-plus innings, with both of those starts landing Under the total.
New York is 13-5-1 Under their last 19 on the road as well.
Friday night low-scoring game at Fenway Park.
3* N.Y. YANKEES-BOSTON UNDER