Free Picks for Friday, August 25th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
PATRIOTS AT LIONS
PLAY: PATRIOTS -1
This is pretty simple for me. Bill Belichick has done virtually no game planning for either of the first two preseason games. That figures to change this week at Detroit. It might not be the same as a regular season game in terms of the prep work and game planning. But it’s as close as the Pats will get to the real deal.
The Lions have looked very good defensively in beating the Colts and Jets, but they’re going to get more of a challenge here. Everyone gets up to play the champs, even in a game that doesn’t count. So I’m sure the Lions and their fans will be excited to challenge the Patriots on Saturday evening.
But if the Patriots are approaching this as their dress rehearsal, that’s the side I want to be on, especially with the line being as palatable as it is. I’ll spot the one here and will back New England.
Alan Harris
Saskatchewan vs. Edmonton
Play: Under 54
Two teams that have been trending to the under will meet when the Saskatchewan Roughriders hit the road to take on the Edmonton Eskimos at Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton, AB, on Friday night. The Roughriders have posted a 4-1 record to the under in their last four road games and they have that same 4-1 record to the under in their last five games following an ATS win. They are also 5-2 to the under in their last seven games played in the month of August and they have stayed under the total in six of their last eight games versus a West Division rival. The Eskimos have been an under team as well in the spot they are in here tonight as they have gone 6-1 to the under in their last seven games following a straight up loss and they are 5-1 to the under in their last six games after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Throw in the fact that the Roughriders are a lights out 36-17 in their last 53 games following a straight up win going back to the 2009 season and that's where we'll have our play as we expect both teams to struggle moving the ball in Edmonton on Friday night.
DAVE COKIN
TIGERS VS. WHITE SOX
PLAY: WHITE SOX +145
Loads of respect for Justin Verlander, who is once again putting together a fine season for the Tigers. I know the price tag is high as far as the dollars go, but I have to say I’m really surprised one of the contenders didn’t ante up to get this guy. He’s absolutely a guy who can be the difference between making the playoffs or sitting things out come October. Plus, if it’s a team in the win or go home sudden death scenario, he’s a pretty good option to take the baseball and deliver a clutch performance.
All that said, this is a big betting line. Not that the White Sox are any good, but the Pale Hose has at least been close to respectable at home. The Tigers are a grotesque 24-39 on the road. van with Verlander on the hill, that’s a bit of an outsized price for a bad away team to be spotting.
I also wonder about the level of interest here for the Tigers as a team. They’re off a home series with the Yankees in which emotions ended up running very high. Just in case you missed it, the benches emptied three times in Thursday’s game, and eight players ended up getting ejected. Going from that craziness to an absolutely meaningless game against the White Sox is not ideal and its conceivable the Tigers could be a little shorthanded tonight.
Nite the last time these teams met the Tigers earned the series sweep, so that nifty little revenge angle is also in play here. I played the White Sox and will use them as the Friday free play.
Mike Lundin
Royals vs. Indians
Play: Indians -125
The Cleveland Indians have 14 of the last 20 in the series and nine of the last 11 meetings with the Kansas City Royals at Progressive Field. This looks like a more than reasonable price on the Tribe in the opener of a three-game series Friday night.
Ryan Merritt (0-0, 3.12 ERA) takes the ball for Cleveland. The 25 year old southpaw will make his fourth appearance for the Indians this season and third spot start. We can note that the Royals are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter and Merritt is backed up by the best bullpen in the American League (3.05 ERA) if things were to go awry.
The Royals turn to a left-hander of their own in Jason Vargas (14-7, 3.59 ERA). He was tagged with four runs on six hits and three walks in 4 2/3 innings against Cleveland on August 19 his last time out. I don't think he'll be able to slow down the Tribe this time around either as they scored 13 runs on 18 hits in yesterday's win against Boston. The Indians are 5-2 in their last seveb home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Note that the Royals are 29-32 on the road this season and the Indians are 9-2 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Art Aronson
Rangers vs. A's
Play: Over 9½
Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that we’ll likely have a bit of a “slug-fest” on our hands in this one.
AJ Griffin: He’s 6-4 with a 5.10 ERA. Griffin gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Sunday. Note that Griffin has been particularly average in all “night” games this year with a ballooned 6.50 ERA.
Kendall Graveman: He’s 3-4 with a 4.54 ERA. Graveman has admittedly looked a bit better of late, but we’ll point out that he’s still only 2-4 with a 4.70 ERA in all “night” games this season.
The bottom line: Graveman has been better at home than on the road this year, but overall he’s been a disappoinment. Both starters have struggled in “night” games and all of these factors collide making the OVER an interesting investment opportunity in this particular matchup.
Marc Lawrence
Tigers vs. White Sox
Play: Tigers -158
Edges - Tigers: Verlander 2.39 ERA with 0.88 WHIP last seven overall starts; and 8-1 last nine overall team starts in this series, including 5-0 the last five; and 6-1 last seven overall team starts during August… White Sox: Gonzalez 3-9 last twelve overall team starts during August; and 4-10 team start at night this season… With Verlander in commanding KW form with 33 Ks and 4 BBs his last four starts, we recommend a 1* play on Detroit.
Rob Vinciletti
Tigers vs. White Sox
Play: Tigers -158
The Tigers are 3-0 on the road off a home win and have Verlander on the mound tonight. Verlander has won his last 2 here and takes Chicagos M. Gonzalez who has lost 3 of his last 4 as a home dog. This game also fits a powerful league wide system that plays on road favorites at -140 or more that are off a home favored win and scored 10 or more runs in the win, vs an opponent who was a home dog last out like the White Sox. Look for the Tigers with Verlander to take the opener.
Brandon Shively
Kansas City vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -122
The Indians got things back on track Thursday night, showing just how good this team is as they knocked around Chris Sale.
Cleveland will take on Jason Vargas Friday, who was knocked around by this Indians team last time out. Vargas conceded 4 runs in just 4.2 innings of work, as he has taken a few steps back in his recent outings.
Kansas City is in a lot of trouble in the AL Central and this is the Indians chance to really bury them. They have played some of their best baseball at home and they're a solid move on this one.
Jim Feist
Padres at Marlins
Pick: Under
This is a good park to pitch in and San Diego is in town with the worst offense in baseball. Starter Travis Wood is off two strong games in a row, allowing 3 runs in 12 innings. San Diego is on a 4-2-1 run under the total and Miami is 7-3 under during game 1 of a series. Adam Conley shut down the Mets his last start allowing 3 hits, 1 run with 11 strikeouts in 7 innings.
SPORTS WAGERS
ST. LOUIS -1½ +129 over Tampa Bay
Over their last 15 games, the Rays are dead last in MLB with a combined batting average of .217 and it’s not like they faced a string of aces. Au contraire my friends, as they faced a lot of pitchers like Nick Tepesch, Yovani Gallardo, Ariel Miranda, Marco Estrada and Brandon Woodruff among others. They are also dead last in runs scored over that span with 45 in 15 games. The Rays are dead last in just about every offensive category since the All-Star break but they rank first in striking out and they’ll now face a strikeout pitcher that they’ve never seen before in Michael Wacha.
Wacha has 119 K’s in 126 innings. He also has an elite batted ball profile of 54% grounders, 19% line-drives, 27% fly-balls (incidentally, infield flies are categorized as groundballs). Wacha was once considered a can’t miss prospect but a recurrence of a 2014 shoulder issue cost him much of the 2nd half last year and put 2017 in limbo. That was then and this is now in which Wacha is finishing the season with a flourish. He has posted some excellent skills in the second half with 8.4 K’s/9, 2.0 BB’s/9 and an xERA of 3,27. His top-flight command sub-indicators of 12% swings and misses and 68% first-pitch strike rate say his resurgence is not a mirage. These are legit skills.
Jake Odorizzi is another prime example of why we don’t buy surface stats and why they’re so misleading. Odorizzi brings his 4.04 road ERA into this start but his skills are among the worst in MLB. Odorizzi has a weak BB/K split of 45/90 over 108 frames. His 30%/23%/47% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is repulsive. Over his last 14 innings over three starts since returning from the 10-day DL, Odorizzi has walked 10 batters and struck out eight. In summarizing, Jake Odorizzi’s fly-ball % ticked up again. HR’s allowed remain persistent and the damage inflicted by RHBs is on the upswing. This is a starter with an xERA of 6.18 that pitches half his games in a pitcher’s park. Odorizzi’s WHIP since returning from injury is 1.83. Stay clear of Jake Odorizzi unless of course you want to get behind a pitcher that throws a flat 90 MPH fastball right down the middle of the plate.
CINCINNATI +111 over Pittsburgh
This one sets up nice for the Reds, as they’ll face a Pirates team coming off a highly emotional four-game set against the Dodgers. The Pirates lost three of four to the Dodgers with only win coming on that well-publicized “no-hitter” by Rich Hill. Hill had completed nine innings without allowing a hit. Usually, five minutes after that reality reveals itself, he would be drenched in Gatorade or beer or both, his limbs aching from exertion and from the dogpile on the mound. That wasn’t happening, though. This no-hitter wasn’t a no-hitter, technically, because the game continued on, a scoreless tie until of course Josh Harrison turned on Rich Hill’s 99th pitch and poked a homer over Curtis Granderson’s glove. Game over on one hit by the Pirates. Pittsburgh knocked out six more hits yesterday in a 5-2 loss to they not only should’ve been swept by L.A. but they combined for seven hits over the past two games and will now face Robert Stephenson.
Stephenson is a former first-round righty with impressive raw stuff that includes three plus pitches though below-average control. His fastball will flash plus-plus with run and sink, though he relies on working it high in the zone, which leads to control issues. That’s getting better, however. The curve flashes plus with hard depth and generates swings-and-misses low in zone, while the change fades with tumble and is another plus offering. Stephenson has 41 K’s in 44 innings. Over his last two starts against Atlanta and Pittsburgh, he gave up a combined five hits in 10.2 innings. The risk is that he walks too many batters but his recent form is good enough to get behind because his raw stuff is so good, which matters at this park.
Ivan Nova is much more familiar than Robert Stephenson. Nova has missed more bats (10% swing and miss rate) in the second half (4.13 xERA), but a number of balls have reached the seats (1.8 HR/9). Six out of his last seven games started have resulted in a below average outing and his 5.12 away xERA makes this start at Great American Ball Park (+29% LHB HR) a very risky one. Nova has been tagged for 12 jacks over his past nine games and it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be able to keep the ball in the park here.
Scott Rickenbach
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins
Play: San Diego Padres +147
Neither of these teams has fared well against southpaws this season but the Padres aren't the ones laying -160 either! In other words, there is substantial line value here in fading a Marlins team that has gone 10-15 versus southpaw starters this season. Left-hander Travis Wood gets the start for San Diego here and he just outdueled Stephen Strasburg as the Padres beat the Nats in Wood's most recent start. He has allowed just 2 earned runs in his last 12 innings of work. As for the Marlins Adam Conley, he has a 7.47 ERA at home this season. Though he is off of a strong start at San Francisco in his most recent outing, he previously gave up 12 runs (11 earned) in the 16 and 2/3 innings spanning his 3 prior starts. Also, he walked 3 while recording 0 strikeouts in his most recent home start. Look for the Padres to improve to 40-33 (+$18,000) in Friday games with a big upset win in this one.
Stephen Nover
Mariners vs. Yankees
Play: Mariners +137
The favored Yankees are ripe to lose here returning home after being on the road for 10 days and off their wildest game of the year.
It's understandable if the Yankees' concentration level is off following their bitter series with the Tigers that culminated in yesterday's 10-6 Yankees loss where there were three bench-clearing incidents and a major brawl.
Suspensions are looming, which can be a distraction. The New York tabloids weren't shy about the brawl pointing out Gary Sanchez is now a marked man for throwing cheap shots during the melee. All of this, along with coming back to New York following an extened trip, has to take a toll on the Yankees.
The Mariners are playing in their seventh straight road game. Seattle, though, has won six of its last eight games. This is an important game for the Mariners, who trail the Yankees by four games in the wild card race. It's a plus if the Mariners have Robinson Cano, who suffered a hamstring injury on Wednesday. I would be surprised, however, if Cano plays.
The pitching matchup is southpaw Ariel Miranda versus lefty CC Sabathia.
Seattle has a winning record against lefties. New York is .500 versus them.
Miranda is a bottom-of-the-rotation starter. But as far as that goes, he's decent meaning he's a legitimate fourth-to-fifth type starter rather than a stiff. Miranda defeated the Rays in his last start this past Saturday giving up three runs on five hits in five innings. MIranda seems to do well against stronger competition as the Mariners are 11-5 the last 16 times he's gone against above .500 opponents.
Sabathia is past his prime and pitching on a tricky knee. Sabathia's ERA since the All-Star break is 4.45 spanning six starts. The Yankees' high profile bullpen is proving to be overrated.
The Mariners have proven themselves at Yankee Stadium winning eight of the last 11 there.
Jimmy Boyd
Orioles vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -150
I'll take my chances here with the Red Sox at home, as they look to bounce back from a rare bad start from their ace Chris Sale in yesterday's 6-13 loss to the Indians. What I like is the fact that Boston's offense has now 6+ runs in 3 straight games. They should be able to stay hot at the plate against Orioles starter Jeremy Hellickson, who has allowed 13 runs on 13 hits (6 HRs) in his last two starts. Hellickson faced Boston once this season back in June and it wasn't pretty, as he allowed 6 runs on 9 hits in a 3-7 loss.
Red Sox will counter with Rick Porcello, who has been a disappointment at 8-14 with a 4.48 ERA in 26 starts this season. However, he's been on a roll here of late, posting a solid 2.84 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in his last 3 starts (Red Sox have won his last 4 starts). He's also got a strong 3.69 ERA in 11 starts against division opponents this season and has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in his last 4 outings against the Orioles.
Baltimore is just 6-20 in their last 26 as a dog of +125 to +175 and 1-12 in their last 13 road games after 2 straight games where they didn't commit an error. Red Sox are 36-18 on the season after a loss, 10-2 in their last 12 at home, 13-3 in their last 16 against a right-handed starter and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games.
Chip Chirimbes
Houston vs. Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles +102
Both these clubs have dropped 3-of-4 contests entering this series with the Astros holding a 12.5 game lead in the AL West while Los Angeles trails Minnesota by a half-game for the final AL Wild Card berth. Houston has lost 16 of their last 25 games and yesterday lost MLB's leading hitter Jose Altuve to a neck injury. Collin McHugh (1-2, 4.01 ERA) has returned from an elbow injury and is 6-2 with a 2.55 ERA in 11 starts against the Angels who will start Parker Bidwell (7-1, 2.92) who has won five straight decisions and is making his first starts against Houston.