Brandon Shively
California vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii +20
This game is being played on a neutral in Australia. I don’t think that this neutral field will benefit either team so I am going to exploit the head to head matchup here. Cal is a team that went 9-27 combined from 2012 to 2014 before winning 8 games last year, behind a QB (Goff) that got drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. This is also a Cal team that has only been a favorite away from home 3 times in the last 4 years. Cal lost their top 6 receivers and 5 of their top 6 tacklers. While Cal will have a reliable QB in Davis Webb from Texas Tech, he doesn’t have a lot of talent around him and it will take time for Webb to get in sync with these new receivers. I will also note that Cal has a new offensive coordinator. While it’s still the ‘Air Raid’ offense, there are new schemes being installed and it will take time before the Bears are putting up 40+ points. With only 3 seniors starting on defense, I like Hawaii to score enough points to cover this spread.
Hawaii is 5-0 ATS in Week 1 the last five years and are undervalued in this spot. There's a new Head Coach for Hawaii and he used to play for the Rainbow Warriors. Nick Rolovich was the QB for Hawaii and will have former teammate Brian SMith as the offensive coordinator and associate head coach. I think these two guys are going to gel great and Hawaii can only get better as a team. Rolovich was the OC at Nevada the last 4 years. Rolovich came to Nevada after a wildly productive four-year run at Hawaii, where he directed one of the top passing offenses in the nation. He was the quarterbacks coach all four seasons and spent the last two years as the Warriors' offensive coordinator. In Rolovich’s first game with Nevada in 2012, Rolovich beat Cal, 31-24, as a 12 point road dog, so their is some ‘deja vu’ here and a great storyline.
Hawaii returns 9 players on offense (73 offensive line starts). Senior QB Woolsey should be able to lead the team on some scores against this soft Cal defense. While Hawaii’s weakness is their secondary, the Cal Bears passing game is not going to be up to full speed yet. I think Hawaii will be improved offensively from last year and Cal will struggle to score, especially touchdowns and the defense is not good enough to offset the offensive regression.
Special Teams: Senior utility kicker Sanchez was one of only five kickers nationally to handle all duties. As a field goal kicker, he converted 8-of-11 attempts, including two from 47 yards and a long of 50 to earn all-Mountain West Honorable Mention. So we have a quality FG kicker on our side here as well. While we are looking for touchdowns, all scores will help and this game should have it’s fair share of field goal opportunities.
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Dave Cokin
California vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii +21
There’s zero question that California rates the role of chalk as the Golden Bears head to Australia to get the 2016 season started against a rather soft opponent. Hawaii doesn’t figure to be especially good, and I don’t see the Rainbow Warriors having a good chance to win this game outright.
But the good news is Hawaii only needs to be competitive to hang the big number in this battle, and I think the Warriors have a decent chance to do exactly that. Not by a bundle, mind you, but by enough to cash a ticket.
I see Nick Rolovich as a definite coaching upgrade for Hawaii. That’s not a knock on the legendary Norm Chow, but his ship had sailed and I have to believe we’re going to see more focused performances and a more disciplined approach under Rolovich. He also will be able to bank on more experience this season, as Hawaii returns 15 starters plus some solid special teamer. So while the Warriors are still way down the list in terms of power rankings, I do have them higher than in 2015, even if that doesn’t result in added wins.
Cal is in rebuild mode. Sonny Dykes has to replace a QB selected first overall in the NFL draft, what amounts to the entire receiving corps, and there are holes on the defense as well. The PAC-12 has a load of balance and the league will have a tough time getting anyone to the playoffs as they beat up on one another in conference play. The Golden Bears don’t figure to be anywhere near the title chase, and in fact, Cal might only be favored one time the rest of the season.
There isn’t any question the favorite has the better athletes, and if this game were being played a couple months from now, when the newcomers have more experience, I likely wouldn’t even be considering the underdog.
But the fact is that right now, I can see the experience factor being quite important. I can also see Hawaii having tremendous enthusiasm here. They’re not very good, but every team thinks they are when the ledger reads 0-0. So I don’t think the Warriors take the field feeling defeated before the game gets started. It won’t surprise me if that’s exactly how they feel when they have to visit Michigan on September 3. But I’ll concern myself with that game later.
My line on this game is not far from where the actual line sits. I made Cal -18 with the game on neutral turf. So it’s not like this is any kind of slam dunk call on the Warriors, and to be honest, if it wasn’t a stand alone game, I’d probably leave it alone. In fact, this will only be a half-unit play for me. But I am taking the 21 with Hawaii and feel they’ll at least give Cal a battle to get the season started.