Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, December 23rd, 2016

Dwayne Bryant

Louisiana Techvs Navy
Play: Over 66

A pair of teams that did not end their seasons the way they had hoped will square off in the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas. Louisiana Tech suffered back-to-back double-digit losses to end their season, while Navy got drilled by Temple in the AAC Championship game and followed that with their first loss to Army in 15 years.

Navy came into the season needing to replace All-American QB Keenan Reynolds. They lost QB Tago Smith early in the season, but Will Worth stepped in and set a school-record with 2,595 total yards. Worth was injured in that AAC title game loss to Temple. Enter third-string QB Zach Abey. Abey looked better as the Army game progressed, and he has some extra time to prepare for this contest.

It is no secret that Navy employs an option offense. It's run, run, and run some more. The Louisiana Tech defense does not see very many option offenses. That will spell trouble for the Techies, as Navy averages 313 rushing yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry.

It is also no secret that Louisiana Tech can sling it all over the field, led by QB Ryan Higgins. Higgins threw for 4,200 yards and 37 TDs this season to lead the nation's #3 pass offense. Navy's defense is used to facing run-first offenses, and they face an option offense in practice all the time. They do not fare very well against explosive pass offenses like LT's. Navy gave up 40 points to Houston, 52 to South Florida, and 40 to Tulsa in conference play.

We have two teams with vastly different offensive styles. This is an early bowl game, so neither defense has too much extra time to prepare.

The average total points scored in Louisiana Tech's games this season against bowl teams was 79. That number was 66 for Navy.

These two teams combined to go Over in 18 of 26 games this season. I see no reason why this one won't be another Over. Navy's recent offensive struggles only give us more value here, in my opinion. I expect this game to end with about 72 total points scored.

Drew Martin

Ohio +4

The Troy Trojans (9-3) have already played in Ladd Peebles Stadium with a late October win over South Alabama, 28-21. The 166-mile drive from Troy to Mobile will likely mean more Trojan faithful in the seats and perhaps a little home field advantage but there are a number of angles that point towards there being value on the underdog Ohio Bobcats.

The Trojans are led by second-year head coach Neil Brown and quarterback Brandon Silvers. Silvers put up respectable numbers in Sun Belt play (264 ypg, 12-6 TD-to-INT ratio) but a closer examination shows he struggled against the league’s better defenses. Against Appalachian State, Silvers finished with a 114.4 QB rating and dismal 85.6 against Arkansas State. Those were by far his two worst performances of the season vs. league foes. The Arkansas State game is of particular significance because the Red Wolves boast one of the better front sevens in the mid-major circuit with 125 tackles for loss and 43 sacks. Against ASU, Silvers completed only 51% of his passes and was picked off twice.

The Ohio Bobcats posted very similar numbers with 43 sacks and 98 tackles for loss. We saw what the Bobcats are capable of in the MAC title game as they held a very potent Western Michigan offense to 29 points and 5.39 yards per play.

Ohio is built to play as an underdog with all five losses decided by single digits including a 28-19 loss at Tennessee and 29-23 loss vs. Western Michigan. Of their four games as an underdog this season, Ohio is a perfect 4-0 ATS with two outright wins. And last season in the Camellia Bowl against Appalachian State, the Bobcats lost 31-29 as a +7 underdog. Take the points with a very live underdog.

Cal Sports

Ohio +4

This is the second meeting between the Ohio Bobcats and the Troy Trojans as they met in the 2010 New Orleans Bowl. That season heading into the bowls both teams were 7-4 and Troy was a 2 point favorite with an O/U of 57.5. The Trojans racked up 601 yards of offense and came away with a 48-21 win. Ohio has been an underdog in each of their last 5 bowl games going 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS covering last year as a 7.5 point dog in their 31-29 loss to Appalachian St. This is Troy’s first bowl games since 2010 when they faced Ohio and while they were bowl eligible in 2013 at 6-6 they were not selected for a bowl.

Ohio’s season got off to an auspicious start getting upset as an 18 pt HF versus Texas St but the wnext week the pulled the small upset over Kansas. In conference play they opened up at Miami, Oh and won that game thanks to a 3 turnover edge which led to them winning the MAC East as the won the tiebreaker with the Redhawks as both had a 6-2 record. In the MAC Championship Ohio gave a ranked Western Michigan team all they could handle as they easily covered as a 17 pt dog in a 29-23 loss. Ohio has my #107 ranked offense and did so with basically two different units. QB Greg Windham started the first 7 games of the season and is expected to get the start here while Quinton Maxwell started the last 7 games. RB Dorian Brown led the team with 802 yards (5.3 ypc) has he came on late making the teams last 7 starts. The Bobcats strength is their defense which is #55 in my rankings. Ohio is allowing 22.2 PPG and as a team they have totaled 43 sacks which ranks 5th in the nation. DE Tarell Basham has 11.5 sacks.

Troy was picked to finish in the middle of the Sun Belt but made it known they were a team to be reckoned with beating Southern Miss on the road and only losing 30-24 at Clemson getting outgained by only 28 yards. The Trojans won their first 4 conference games and then made it 5-0 after beating Appalachian St at home as a 1.5 pt favorite. The next week Troy was done in by turnovers (-5 vs Ark St) but still could share the Sun Belt crown but lost at Georgia Southern in their season finale to finished 6-2. The Trojans have my #80 offense and are balanced averaging 262 YPG in the air and 176 YPG rushing. QB Brandon Silvers is a 3-year starter as has increased his team point production from 21.8 to 27.9 to 34.2 PPG in his third season. The defense ranks #49 allowing 22.2 PPG and down the stretch they held their last 6 opponents to 347 YPG.

Both teams have defenses far superior to their offenses which is why this bowl total in only 49 points. The matchup that I like is the Ohio DL versus the Troy OL and I think it’ll be the difference. In the Trojans last 9 games they have only been sacked 6 times with 4 coming in the last 2 games. I expect Ohio to be able to rattle Troy’s QB and pull the small upset.

Scott Spreitzer

Vikings vs. Packers
Play: Vikings +6½

We backed the Packers two weeks ago when they whipped Seattle and we released Chicago plus the points, covering against Green Bay last Sunday. After a 5-0 SU/ATS start to the season, the Vikings collapsed and have won just two of their last nine games, including bottoming-out last week in a 34-6 home loss to the Colts. They're on the brink of postseason elimination, while Green Bay can win the division if they win their final two games. But I expect a close contest in this one. HC Mike Zimmer stated it's time to find out who is going to fight. Despite last week's results, the Viking defense is still 3rd best in the league in both passing yards allowed and total yards allowed per game. They've held their opponents to 21 or fewer points in 11 of 14 games (regulation) this season. Minnesota has been an underdog of six or more on just six occasions since October 19, 2014. They covered all six games, including a 22-10 outright win as a six point dog at Carolina earlier this season. I expect Minnesota to keep this close and I'm taking the points with the Vikings.

Jack Jones

Louisiana Tech vs. Navy
Play: Navy +7

There’s no question that Navy was overvalued in its final two games of the season following a four-game winning streak. The Midshipmen were favorites against Temple and lost 10-34. They were also favorites against Army and lost 17-21. But those two losses have flipped the script, and now the Midshipmen are undervalued again here as huge 7-point underdogs.

I have no doubt that Navy will be playing with a chip on its shoulder now following those two defeats. They weren’t prepared to lose their starting QB in that loss to Temple, and they didn’t recover in time to beat Army the next week. That was a tough spot for the Midshipmen because Army had multiple weeks to prepare for them, while they were coming off that physical game against Temple the week before.

Now the Midshipmen will have had two full weeks to get backup Zach Abey ready to go against Louisiana Tech. He’s really not nearly as a big of a downgrade from Will Worth as this line would indicate. Abey actually averaged 6.0 yards per carry this season compared to 4.5 per carry for Worth. Abey also completed 56.5 percent of his passes, compared to 61.5 percent for Worth.

Louisiana Tech is also coming off its two worst performances of the season and doesn’t deserve getting this much credit from oddsmakers. The Bulldogs were outgained by 172 yards in a 24-39 loss at Southern Miss and by 149 yards in a 44-58 loss to Western Kentucky. I think the Bulldogs will still be deflated following that loss to the WKU in the C-USA Championship Game, similar to how Navy was deflated heading into the Army game. And nobody enjoys facing the triple-option, so the Bulldogs can't be too excited about their opponent here.

Navy averages 37.4 points and 311 rushing yards per game. The Midshipmen should be able to score at will against a Louisiana Tech defense that is giving up 32.7 points per game this season. The Bulldogs also allow 36.4 points and 460 yards per game in road games this year. They gave up 656 total yards to Western Kentucky in the finale, including 235 rushing on 41 carries.

Navy played a much tougher schedule than LA Tech this season. The Midshipmen played the 66th-toughest schedule, while the Bulldogs faced the 113th-toughest. LA Tech only beat one team with a winning record this year. Navy beat three teams with winning records in Houston, Memphis and Tulsa, while also beating Notre Dame. It's also worth noting that the Midshipmen will clearly have the home-field advantage in this Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth.

I always love getting Navy in the role of the underdog. The Midshipmen are 91-56 ATS in their last 147 games as an underdog. Navy is 20-4 ATS in its last 24 road games after having lost two of its last three games coming in. The Midshipmen are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 bowl games. The Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Dave Price

Thunder / Celtics Under 209

The Oklahoma City Thunder are missing their starting shooting guard in Victor Oladipo, which is a huge blow to their offense. It just means that Russell Westbrook has to do even more for this team, if that's even possible. Both the Celtics and Thunder rank in the top 12 in defensive efficiency. The Celtics have to be gassed after their 109-102 win in Indiana last night. I think it will hurt their offense more than their defense, and I expect them to play at a slower pace tonight than normal. These teams just met on December 11th in a 99-96 home victory for the Thunder and 195 combined points. I think we see a similar combined point total here as this game stays well under the 209-point total. The UNDER is 20-9 in Thunder's last 29 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 15-3 in Celtics last 18 games vs. teams that give up 99 or more points per game. The UNDER is 7-2 in Thunder's last 9 games overall.

Frank Jordan

Louisiana Tech vs. Navy
Play: Navy +6.5

Louisiana Tech should travel well with this game in Texas as they look to cap off an 8-5 season with a bowl win. Louisiana Tech lost three of their first four games, then ripped off seven wins in a row, however coming into this game they dropped their last two games both by two scores. Navy had an interesting year winning their first three, dropped game four won a pair, lost a game, won four in a row and looked like a big bowl game, before losing their last two games. These two teams have different styles as Navy has rushed for over 4,000 yards and Louisiana Tech has passed for over 4,000 yards. Louisiana Tech have rushed for 28 touchdowns and 39 through the air, but the Midshipman have been heavy on the rush scoring 56 rushing touchdowns and just eight passing touchdowns. Look for the ground attack to be more effective then the air attack as it gobbles up the clock leading to a Navy 24-20 victory.

SPORTS WAGERS

Navy +7 over Louisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech can score points with the best of them and that’s a great selling point this time of year for casual bettors and hardcore one’s as well. We’re not going to go into the numbers because they’re not relevant for our purpose. Let’s just say that Tech might score 44 or more here and if they do and cover, hats off to ‘em. However, Tech could also score 44 points and lose and/or not cover because their defense is brutal.

Situational betting is a hallmark of our strategy. The Navy Midshipmen have gone from the darling of the public eye to a goat in a matter of weeks. Combining a recent scourge of injuries, including a season-ending one to their breakout quarterback Will Worth along with back-to-back losses against Temple in the American Conference Championship and Army in America’s Game, the stock on the Mids has fallen through the floor. Not too long ago, this was an outfit that ranked in the top-15 while garnering considerations for the Group of Five Conference Champion bid to the New Year’s Six Bowl. The Middies have gone from that perch to a team that nobody wants a part of and when everyone jumps off, we like to jump on because the points are usually inflated.

First off, Navy was going to the Armed Forces Bowl whether they came in at 9-4 or 11-2. Thus, in terms of prestige, this bowl was the pre-determined final destination of this outfit unless they were given a New Year’s Six Bowl nod. The Middies were beat by the better team in Temple, who featured a defense readily capable of curtailing the operations of the US Naval Academy. At that point, Navy’s stock was sky high, thus making us sellers. After losing the American Conference title and possibly a New Year’s Six bowl bid, the Mids gave a spirited performance against Army even when they were without their premier offensive player for one of the most robust rivalries in college football. Rivalry games are unpredictable and the Army/Navy affair is as intense as they come. The loser of that rivalry game should not be shown any form of disconcertion, as it is a very pageant affair.

Louisiana Tech has a dynamic trigger-man in Ryan Higgins who has gone off for over 4,200 yards through the air this season while Navy will use its back-up QB. That alone has caused an overreaction. Add in two perceived bad losses in Navy’s last two games and the number gets influenced even more. Thing is, Navy runs the triple-option offense so it doesn’t take a dynamic thrower to move the chains. Navy scored points in bunches against teams that don't run the option, and its offense was as potent as it had been all year at the end of the regular season. While the Midshipmen opened the season by averaging 21 points per game versus FBS foes in their first three games, in the next seven games, Navy averaged 49 points per game. That’s a big problem for Tech’s 92nd ranked defense that has no familiarity with the option (Navy will be the first it has faced this year).

The Mids were projected to be favored in this game at one point. The past two weeks results have caused one of the biggest overreactions in a Bowl game that we have ever seen. Navy is fully aware of the disrespect they are being shown here but more than that is they are the superior team taking back some seriously inflated points in a Bowl Game they’re familiar with and that they’re jacked up to play in.

Note: While the line sits at +7 -115 at most places, we’ll wait until the juice inevitably drops to a traditional rate and step in then. We’ll update this when we do step in.

Power Sports

Golden State vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit

The Pistons have now lost four in a row, all by double digits (0-4 ATS), and drawn the ire of HC Stan Van Gundy in the process. Few will give them any kind of realistic shot in this one, but they're better than what they've shown recently. This still grades out as a rather average team and this is a ton points to be getting at home. Think of them as a stock. Right now would be a good opportunity to "buy low." Despite the losing record, Detroit has still managed to outscore its opponents.

This is a really awful spot from Golden State's perspective too; and a rare chance to fade them. Not only is the second game of a back to back, on the road, but they'll likely be caught looking ahead to the X-Mas Day game in Cleveland. Playing without rest this season, the Warriors are just 2-4 ATS.

Jim Feist

Raptors at Jazz
Pick: Under

A pair of strong defensive teams clash. Toronto is #14 in the NBA in points allowed, #16 in field goal defense. Toronto is a long way from home and faces a powerhouse Jazz defense that is number one and points and field goal shooting defense. Utah is on a 6-1 run under the total, including 4-1 under at home. #10 in the NBA in points allowed

Harry Bondi

Eastern Michigan / Old Dominion Over 64

These two teams met last year with Old Dominion prevailing, 38-34, and we see a similar high-scoring affair here today in the Bahamas. Like this year, the first two editions of the Bahamas Bowl has featured the MAC vs. Conference USA and those games averaged 87 points per game. Today we have two very good QBs that play in fast-paced offenses, going up against shaky pass defenses that have both allowed over 30 points per game in each of their last five games. It’s a shootout! Go over.

David Banks

Mavericks @ Clippers
Pick: Clippers -6

The bad news for the Clippers is that they will be without star leading scorer Blake Griffin for a few weeks as he recovers from a minor knee surgery. The good news is that is that their next two games are against Denver on Tuesday and the lowly Dallas Mavericks on Friday night. At 20-8, the Clippers have the fourth-best record in the Western Conference. Los Angeles had won four straight until a loss on the road at Washington on Sunday.

Dallas (7-20) is among the worst teams in the NBA this season. The Mavericks have lost two of their last three games as they head into a Monday night game with Denver. The Mavs are dead last in the NBA in scoring averaging just 93.7 points per game. Harrison Barnes (20.2 points a game) is the team’s leading scorer. Dallas has been without Dirk Nowitzki for much of the season though the big man hopes to be back by Christmas Day. Nowitzki has been suffering the effects of an Achilles injury.

The Mavericks have also been without 7-0 Andrew Bogut since early December. Bogut has a bruised knee and will not play on Monday against Denver. It is likely that he will not play on Friday night against the Clippers either. With Griffin out of the Clippers lineup, it will be up to perennial All-Star Chris Paul (17.6 ppg, 9.5 apg) to take over. J.J. Redick has been enjoying a good season thus far averaging 15.1 points per game and center DeAndre Jordan is fourth in the NBA in rebounding with 13 rebounds per game.

SPORTS WAGERS

Eastern Michigan +6 over Old Dominion

The Bahamas Bowl has been a venue that has been provided nothing lacking in the theatrics department. Perhaps the most notable memory was the storied comeback of the Central Michigan Chippewas when they erased a thirty-five point deficit against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers only to fall short on an attempt for a game-winning two-point conversion. This year, we will see two teams that you may not normally expect to see in a bowl game: Old Dominion and Eastern Michigan. This is the Monarchs’ first bowl game since joining the FBS in 2014 while EMU Head Coach Chris Creighton has empowered the typically lowly Eagles to qualify for a bowl game for the first time in nearly 20 years. This contest has the makings to be an instant classic, as both teams will be eager to hit the gridiron in this one.

The Monarchs have been hot since they were taken down by N.C. State on September 17th. ODU has won eight of their last nine and they have absolutely obliterated teams such as FIU, FAU, UTEP and Massachusetts along the way. However, the aforementioned competition is a group of weaklings.

While Eastern Michigan may have the less attractive record, they have a more impressive overall body of work. This is a team that edged out MAC East winner Ohio (who is just a four-point dog to Troy today) on the road while also upending the runner up for the Mountain West crown in Wyoming. Furthermore, we have seen the Eagles compete in several fixtures against the cream of the MAC crop. The Eagles covered in both occasions where they were 20-plus point pooches against arch rival Western Michigan and Toledo. Despite being 7-5 overall, the Eagles are 9-3 against the spread, which indicates they have been paying off all year. While Old Dominion may enter with the hot hand, Eastern Michigan will come in here in a position they are all too familiar with; being taken lightly. It is also worth highlighting that ODU quarterback David Washington is probable to play despite nursing a knee injury. While the catalyst of the ODU offense may be on the field, it is likely that he will be less than 100% and one bad move or hit and he’ll be walking around with a clipboard in his hand. However, we are certainly not counting on that.

You are going to be reading all morning about ODU’s terrific offense but once again, that is a great selling point more than it is a great argument. Those offensive numbers by ODU are greatly skewed because of the competition they played. How did they do offensively against good teams should be the more pressing question. In that regard, ODU scored seven points on App State and 22 on N.C. State in a 49-22 loss. It should also be noted that against N.C. State, ODU scored 13 garbage time points in the fourth quarter when the Wolfpack called off the dogs. Aside from that, there are other intangibles at work here that are worth pointing out. First, ODU has played much easier competition that EMU. Old Dominion’s strength of schedule ranks 140th while Eastern Michigan’s ranks 98th. Despite playing the tougher schedule, Eastern Michigan will go into this game with the 19th-ranked goal-line offense against Old Dominion 100th-ranked goal-line defense. That matters too. The Monarchs did not have one close game all year. They either won big or lost big and that does not prepare you well for a post-season game either. Straight up, this is a 50/50 game from our vantage point but when adding in points in shifts the edge to our choice.

Jimmy Boyd

Nets +16½

I'm going to take the points with Brooklyn in this one. While the Nets are playing in the second game of a back-to-back set after hosting the Warriors last night, I fully expect them to show up here against the defending champs. Brooklyn should have covered last night as a 13-point dog at home to Golden State, as they led by 16 at the half and somehow lost by 16.

The big key here is that this is a huge flat spot for Cleveland. They just played a tough home-and-home series against a division opponent in Milwaukee on Tuesday/Wednesday and now face one of the worst teams in the league with a massive game on deck Sunday against the Warriors. I just don't see the Cavs being interested at all in this one and I think the focus here is to keep everyone fresh for the showdown against Golden State.

The Nets have also responded well to a loss, as they are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a SU defeat. They have also gone 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Cleveland, who is a mere 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a losing straight up record.