Mike Lundin
Rockets vs. Grizzlies
Play: Rockets -3
The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off a 98-96 win as a 6-point underdog at Detroit on Wednesday. That result sets up a let down spot here as they host the surging Houston Rockets. The only teams that have been able to defeat the Rockets over their last 19 games are Toronto, Utah and San Antonio. Playing at home or on the road has made very little difference as the Rockets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games. Memphis is 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and while the Grizzlies have a solid D, they really really struggle on the offensive end of the court. It's tough to stop a team that can drop threes like the Rockets can, and I expect them to run away with the game.
Ray Monohan
Louisiana Tech -7
Louisiana Tech and Navy battle in the LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL and the Bulldogs have value here. This is based on Navy not having their top QB, Will Worth, in the backfield. Navy lost Worth prior to the Army game and this team just isn't the same.
The offense looks sluggish and just doesn't have that explosiveness they've had this whole season. The Bulldogs meanwhile are just too dynamic of a team have too good of an offense for Navy to keep up with in this case. Louisiana Tech is averaging 44.0 points per game this season.
A trend to note. Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. Expect Louisiana Tech to really try and get off to an early lead. Burying this Navy offense that is struggling with no solidified QB is a huge key in this game.
Jeffrey James
Old Dominion -4
This is the first FBS bowl game for the Monarchs so look for them to be ready for this one and they get to take on an Eastern Michigan team that is not accustomed to bowl games. The Monarchs ended the season on a great run winning and covering their last 5 games in a row and they have beaten the Eagles SU in 2015 and 2014. Have to think Eastern Michigan will be distracted by this game being in the Bahamas while Old Dominion will be ready to play here.
Wunderdog
Eastern Michigan vs. Old Dominion
Pick: Over 63.5
It looks like Eastern Michigan may finally have a coach that can lead them out of the basement they have been in for so long. Chris Creighton has made three stops to get here, compiling a 139-46 record. In his third year, he has led EMU to a 7-5 record, their second winning season since 1995, and the seven wins are a program high. While the defense hasn't arrived yet, allowing 30.3 points per game, the offense scores 30.4 ppg. Old Dominion is in just their fourth year in the FBS, and recorded their best record at 9-3. Like EMU, the Monarchs have not arrived on defense, allowing 27.8 ppg, but they have been dynamic on offense at 36.0 ppg. The offenses for both teams will be the best units on the field, so the likelihood of a lot of scoring is in store.
Bruce Marshall
Navy +7
In this intriguing battle between highly-contrasting offensive styles, we favor Navy, whose clock-melting attack is able to keep the dangerous La Tech arsenal idling for extended periods, especially with the thinning Bulldog "D" missing a pair of run-stopping LBs (including leading tackler Jordan Harris) due to academics. While the Bulldogs have a strong alumni base in Fort Worth, Navy has 25 players from the Lone Star State. After defeating another C-USA team in this bowl three years ago, history repeats for the highly-motivated Middies, seeking their first-ever four-game bowl win streak, while avoiding just their second three-game losing skein since 2011! It's worth noting that HC Holtz is preparing his team to face its first triple-option attack since a 35-16 loss to Army in Dallas in 2013, when the Black Knights rolled up 414 yds.!
Bruce Marshall
Ohio / Troy Over 48.5
Offensively, the Bobcats have overcome early injuries to starting QB J.D. Sprague and RB A.J. Ouellette. Fifth-year sr. Greg Windham and RS frosh Quinton Maxwell shared the QB duties, combining for 2834 YP, with a 20-8 TD-int. ratio. Windham is the more adept runner of the two, rushing for 382 yds. with a 4.6 ypc mark and 3 TDs. The running game was also handled by committee, led by jr. Dorian Brown (815 YR, 5.4 ypc) and soph Maleek Irons (434 YR, 4.8 ypc). Troy is a good Sun Belt squad led offensively by jr. RB Jordan Chunn (1232 YR, 13 TDs), jr. QB Brandon Silvers (64%, 2951 YR, 22-9 TD-int.), and a fleet of receivers headed by jr. possession wideout Emanuel Thompson (71 catches, 10.3 ypc). The attack slowed in the last month of the season, generating just 353 ypg total offense in its last 4 regular-season games compared with 482 ypg in the first 8 games. The OL allowed just 7 sacks this season.
Bob Balfe
San Diego State -3.5
Tulsa has yet to be exposed as they have won a few games, but nothing of that much quality. This is a team that is in a rebuilding year and I think will have a tough time tonight against this San Diego State Defense that plays very well. I just don’t think Tulsa is experienced enough as a unit to get a win of this quality.
Brett Atkins
The key to this total is whether or not Zach Abey can direct the Navy attack after filling in for Will Worth who was lost for the season under center in the AAC Championship Game against Temple.
Since the Middies have had plenty of practice sessions since their first loss to Army in 14 years, and since the Louisiana Tech defense is not known for being one of the better stop units in the land, I will look for Abey and the Middies to have success putting points on the board.
The Bulldogs allowed 44 points per game over their last 3 games of the season, and went Over in 7 of their last 8 games this season, and 10 of their 13 games overall for the year.
The Midshipmen allowed 36 points per game over their final 6 on the year before things went south against Army, and finished with Overs in 8 of their 13 games played on the season.
There haven't been too many Overs yet this bowl season, but this one sure has the makings of an up-and-down high-scoring affair.
Navy and Louisiana Tech to go Over the total.
2* LOUISIANA TECH-NAVY OVER
Brad Wilton
So far through 10 bowl games coming into Friday, 8 have held Under. Ohio-Troy looks like it will only add to the early dominant Under trend this bowl season.
The Bobcats calling card is defense, and they closed the season with Unders in their last 4 games, including holding high-scoring Western Michigan to only 29 points in the MAC Title Game. For the year, Frank Solich's team went 1-11-1 Under the total!
The Trojans come into this game having played Unders in each of their last 3, and while their Under mark was not as dominant as the Bobcats' mark, Troy did go 4-7-1 Under the total in their 12 games on the year.
If you are looking for points this holiday bowl season, I think you had better look elsewhere.
Ohio and Troy Under in the Dollar General Bowl.
3* OHIO-TROY UNDER
Bob Valentino
My free winner for Friday night is on the Georgia Bulldogs laying a cheap number to the Oakland Golden Grizzlies.
Georgia comes in after winning three straight games, including a 17-point road win at Georgia Tech on Tuesday. And while we can talk about the 5-1 run the Bulldogs sprint in with, I'd like to discuss the 65-54 loss to Kansas back on Nov. 22.
The Bulldogs held a very explosive and very offensive Jayhawks team to its lowest output of the season. Kansas has so many offensive weapons, and to be able to limit a team that is averaging nearly 90 points, to about 23 points below its average is pretty impressive.
Oakland, meanwhile, comes in on a two-game slide after losing by 12 to Michigan State on Wednesday. Prior to that, it was a two-point setback to Northeastern on Tuesday. I'm not sure what's more eye-opening, the loss to Michigan State, when the Grizzlies have to step up to the competition, or the loss when they letdown to a team like Northeastern.
Georgia is laying a cheap number and will lay it on Oakland tonight.
4* GEORGIA
BRANDON LEE
Nuggets -4
Denver comes into this game off a 102-109 loss on the road to the Clippers, but it was to be expected with the Nuggets playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road. Prior to that Denver had won 3 straight at home, all of those coming by at least 10 points. Atlanta got off to a great start and I just feel like they are stilling getting love from the books for what they have done in recent years. This team hasn't played well consistently for more than a month (5-13 L18). They won't have the services of big man Dwight Howard and could also be missing Tim Hardaway Jr., who had to leave their last game with a groin injury. Denver is also going to be fresh here, as they have had the last 2 days off.
SPORTS WAGERS
Detroit +150 over FLORIDA
OT included. The Panthers lost last night but that was not the focus, as Jaromir Jagr surpassed Mark Messier on the all-time leading scoring list. What was so bizarre about that was that the game was stopped right when it happened for an on-ice ceremony. It was a celebration more than a hockey game but the Panthers will have to get right back at it tonight and it’s rather anticlimactic, not only for Jagr but for everyone. There is a good chance that the Panthers will be flat tonight but even if they’re not, they cannot be favored in this range against Detroit.
The Red Wings are coming off a 4-1 loss to Tampa but that was less than 24 hours before their game in Carolina was cancelled due to poor ice conditions. Sitting around in the visitor’s dressing room for six hours is difficult to be sure so the Red Wings can be excused for that loss in Tampa. We completely understand that the Red Wings are in trouble and that they have several players on the rack. Those factors obviously influence the line but this is an opportunity for Detroit to dig down deep and pull out a win just before the break. Despite the injuries, the Red Wings still have goal scorers and point producers throughout the lineup. They catch the Panthers at precisely the right time too and we trust we’re going to get a great effort from this visitor in this very winnable game.
DALLAS -1½ +231 over Los Angeles
OT included. We made a commitment last week to not playing teams spotting a half goal (for example, -½ +120) because spotting that extra goal offers up so much more value when you really break it down. You see, in order to win when spotting a half puck, your team has to be up by at least one goal late in the game. If they’re not up one, they are either up two or more, tied or losing outright. If they’re up two or more, the bet has a great opportunity to cash. If they are tied or losing, the bet would lose anyway and if you’re team is up a goal, the opposition will pull the goalie, thus giving us a great chance to add an empty netter and win. After studying the numbers recently over the past 10 years, spotting 1½-pucks is a far better option than spotting a half puck when playing a favorite and we’ll go over those numbers in an upcoming podcast. Frankly, there are no bad scenarios when there is under 3½-minutes to go when spotting 1½-pucks that makes them more risky than spotting a half puck. That potential empty netter that is hit in a high percentage of games seals the deal.
That brings us to this favorable spot for Dallas, the final game before the Christmas break. Players are human. They have families, kids, friends, girlfriends and wives just like the rest of us. Every single player will talk to their kids today. Every single kid will ask if they are going to be home for X-Mas and every player wants to be and will say yes. Every female wants their partner home too and while we are not privy to the info, we are 100% sure that if the Kings aren’t flying back to the West Coast tonight right after the game, they will be doing so first thing in the morning. Our guess is that they’ll be on a plane late tonight and arrive in L.A. about 11:00 PM local time.
The Kings have been on the road since December 13. They started this trip back in Buffalo and this will now be their 7th game in the past 10 days, all on the road. L.A. looked dead in the first period last night in Nashville. They found their legs in the second period but a true sign of fatigue is how they came out of the gate and it wasn’t pretty. The Kings ended up winning last night 4-0 so there is no urgency here. One can reasonably assume that getting home for Christmas will be at the forefront of every player and coach on that Kings’ bench. Mentally, we’re suggesting that the Kings may have played their final game before the break last night while Dallas was waiting in the wings. A fresh Dallas team that will have nothing on their minds but hockey should win this one going way.
Mike Rose
Auburn vs. UConn
Play: Auburn +4
The Auburn Tigers check in at 9-2 for the first time since the 2007-08 season after taking undermanned Oklahoma down on Wednesday night. The Connecticut Huskies enter their final non-conference game before AAC play picks up playing some good ball in winning two of three and covering both lined games. The book is still out on Auburn at this point with it not taking on the toughest of schedules to this point. A win here just might shed some light on if this team is for real or a byproduct of a weak schedule.
I’m not entirely sure Auburn is nearly as good as its overall record indicates, but I’m willing to pay to see UCONN put together a complete game at both ends of the court to cover the chalk in this tilt. The Huskies are 1-2 straight up and 0-3 ATS when favored to date, but are still the prohibitive favorties with this game taking place in their home away from home. The Huskies will attempt to slow the game down to a crawl and force Auburn to his shots away from the basket. However, the Tigers will look to run as often as possible, and if successful at doing so, I just don’t trust UCONN’s lack of scoring to be able to keep up.