Free Picks for Friday, December 2nd, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Raphael Esparza
Western Michigan (-19) over Ohio
Western Michigan is a perfect 12-0 this season and an outstanding 9-3 ATS, and I see them having no problems against the Bobcats Friday night. In the last two games the Broncos have played they have outscored their opponents 93-35, and Friday night the Broncos will have too much offense for the Ohio Bobcats. Western Michigan is 6-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning record and 17-8 ATS against conference opponents. The Broncos are also 6-2 ATS in this series and the favorite in this series is 7-3 ATS. The Western Michigan Broncos will have too much offense for the Bobcats defense.
Rob Vinciletti
Wizards +9½
The Wizards have home loss revenge on the Spurs from last weeks game and fit a solid database system that plays on rested road dogs off a road dog spread loss if they scored and allowed 110 or more in that loss and are taking on a team like the Spurs that scored 90 or more on the road in their last game. These road dogs have covered 14 of 17 times the past few years. The Spurs have failed to cover in 8 of 10. The points look like the play here.
Jim Feist
Cavs at Bulls
Pick: Under
A rivalry game in the Eastern conference between a pair of strong defensive teams. Chicago is seventh in the NBA in points allowed and eighth in field goal shooting allowed. Cleveland had to play last night against the Clippers and the Under is 7-2-1 in the Cavaliers last 10 road games. Chicago is 14-6 under against the Eastern Conference and the Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
DAVE COKIN
WILD AT FLAMES
PLAY: WILD -125
The Minnesota Wild head into Calgary to face the Flames having dropped two in a row. Minnesota managed one regulation point at St. Louis on Saturday but eventually lost that game in a shootout. But the Wild got no points on Wednesday as they dropped a 5-4 decision at Vancouver.
The Wild are a perfect 3-0 this season playing off back to back losses, and won those games by a combined 12-3 margin. So this is a team that has responded well when trying to avoid hitting a skid, and I’m expecting that trend to be maintained tonight.
Moreover, there’s a little revenge involved tonight. These teams met once previously this season and Calgary scored the upset with the 1-0 stunner in a game in which the Wild were heavily favored on the money line.
It’s also worth noting that the Flames, while fairly respectable on the road, have been just plain lousy at home. Fact is, they’ve been the most hospitable hosts in the league, netting only four wins whole absorbing seven losses to visiting entries.
There’s not much question as to which team is superior here and given the conditions, I have no problem siding with the favored Wild to come away with the win tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Clippers at Pelicans
Pick: Pelicans
The Cleveland Cavaliers decided not to show up for Thursday's game and the Clippers took full advantage with a 113-94 win which snapped a three-game losing streak. J.J. Redick scored 23 points and Blake Griffin dished out 11 assists as the Clippers held Cleveland to 40.6 percent shooting. Los Angeles is playing its sixth road game in a row and fifth in eight days which might be asking a lot against New Orleans, which has won five straight home games. The Pelicans are 7-2 ATS their last nine games overall and come off a 105-88 win over the Lakers on Tuesday giving them two days rest while the Clippers go back-to-back. Anthony Davis poured in 41 points with 16 rebounds and Jrue Holiday added 22 points against the Lakers. The Clippers are on a 2-9 ATS slide and just 5-16 ATS their last 21 games in New Orleans.
Wunderdog
Washington @ San Antonio
Pick: Washington +10
Despite the retirement of Tim Duncan, the San Antonio Spurs continue to march on as an elite team in the NBA, starting the season 15-4. There are some signs, however, that the margin for error with this team is a lot thinner than it has been in past seasons. The Spurs' long domination in the NBA has them overpriced, and it has shown up of late. In their last seven games as a -85 point favorite or more, the Spurs have redeemed a result of 1-6 ATS. The Wizards have gotten off to a woeful 6-11 start, but this team has underachieved, and going against the Spurs might be the energizing factor they need to play up to their capacity, while the Spurs have not responded this season.
Chip Chirimbes
Colorado vs. Washington
Play: Colorado +8.5
There is a lot of noise about teams winning or not winning their conference championship to qualify for the CFP Final-4 and in this battle if Washington wins they are in and if Colorado wins they will probably make it to the Rose Bowl. The Huskies have been led by a defense that leads the Pac-12 in takeaways with a plus-18 and quarterback Jake Browning who has 40 touchdown passes and an efficiency rating of 181.6. Their defense also led the conference in scoring defense allowing just 17.8 points per game. Colorado lost twice and in both contests when quarterback their senior quarterback Sefo Liufau was out or removed in the third quarter because of injury. The Buffaloes led the conference in total yards surrendered (323.8 ) and pass defense (187.8 yards). In a tough tight battle.
Brandon Lee
Bulls +2½
I'm going to back the Bulls as a small home dog against the Cavs Friday. While Chicago comes in with a record of just 10-7 compared to Cleveland at 13-4, these two are more evenly matched than you might think. The Cavs are 3rd in scoring margin at +6.0 ppg, but right behind them are the Bulls in 4th at +5.6 ppg. Cleveland clearly is in a funk right now, as they followed up an ugly loss at Milwaukee with another poor showing at home against the Clippers. Now they are on the road in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. Chicago laid an egg last time out against the Lakers, as they came out flat after a 4-day break, which followed a 6-game road trip. I expect an all out effort here in their first game against the defending champs.
Dave Price
Chicago Bulls +2.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are coming off their first 2-game losing streak of the season and are ripe for the picking now. They have lost back-to-back games to the Bucks (by 17) and Clippers (by 19) and simply aren't playing well right now. They're not going to have a lot to give tonight as this will be the 2nd of a back-to-back for them after losing at home to the Clippers last night. The Bulls are fresh and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 7 days and their 3rd game in 10 days. They have had this game circled all season and should be primed for a big effort here. The Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss. The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Jack Jones
Boston Celtics -6.5
The Boston Celtics have lost three straight home games for the first time this season. The losses have come against the Warriors, Spurs and Pistons, so it has been a tough schedule. But they'll be highly motivated to end this skid and crush the Sacramento Kings tonight.
Now they'll be up against one of the league's worst teams in the Sacramento Kings, who are 7-11 overall and 3-6 on the road this season. The Kings have lost 10 of their last 15 games overall. Two of their three road wins have come against the Suns and Nets, but this is a huge step up in class for them.
The Celtics have certainly had the Kings' number in recent meetings. Indeed, they are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. They won both meetings last year in blowout fashion, prevailing 114-97 in Sacramento and 128-119 at home.
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. The Kings are 0-5 ATS in their last five trips to Boston.
Jimmy Boyd
Hawks -3½
I think we are getting some great value here with Atlanta as a small home favorite against the Pistons. I know the Hawks haven't been all that impressive of late, as they are just 1-7 in their last 8 games, but a lot of that has to do with a tough schedule during this stretch. Of those 8 games, 7 came on the road, where Atlanta is just 4-7. Now they return home where they are 6-2 both SU and ATS and are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder, as they desperately need a win to get back on track.
Detroit is certainly getting a lot of love right now, as the Pistons enter winners of 4 of their last 5, including back-to-back road wins over the Hornets (112-89) and Celtics (121-114). The key here is that the Pistons are in prime position for a letdown. This is the final game of a short 4-game road trip, so they could be looking ahead to getting home for the weekend. On top of that, they can't have a whole lot left in the tank. This will be the Pistons 3rd road game in the last 4 days and have had to travel from Charlotte to Boston to Atlanta. It's also their 5th game in the last 8 days overall.
Even with the outright road wins over Charlotte and Boston as dogs, Detroit is still just 3-8 SU and 3-8 ATS on the road this season. Adding to this is a great system backing a fade of the Pistons given their current spot. Teams off back-to-back upset wins as a road dog, who are playing at least their 6th game in the last 10 days are just 7-28 (20%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
Ray Monohan
Atlanta Hawks -3.5
The Hawks welcome in the Pistons here on Friday and the home team laying the points has the value.
This play gets value from the home/away discrepancy.
Detroit enters play 3-8 SU and 3-8 ATS on the road this season. As for the Hawks, they are 6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS when playing at home.
While the Pistons rely heavily on Andre Drummond in the middle to be the spark to their offense, he'll have a tough time getting anything going with C Dwight Howard on him. Expect that to be a battle and for those two to really have their struggles with finding space. Given that though, the Hawks should be able to pick apart the perimeter play.
Some trends to note. Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central. Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
This is a nice number and spot for the Hawks. They took 3 of the 4 meetings last year and should be able to secure a win here on Friday while covering.
Scott Rickenbach
Minnesota at Calgary
Play: Calgary +135
Everyone is jumping on Minnesota here because it is a revenge spot since they lost at home to Calgary a little less than three weeks ago. This has opened up nice line value on the home dog Flames who are off of a shutout win which makes it look like this is a spot to fade them. However, Calgary is 2-0 this season (and 7-3, 70%) the last 3 seasons combined when they are off of a shutout win. As for the Wild, though it looks like a spot to play them since they have revenge, they have actually lost 7 of 12 this season when playing with revenge. Also, Minnesota has lost 52 of 94 (and down $21,300) when they are playing with revenge the past three seasons combined. After allowing 4 goals or more in their prior game the Wild have lost 27 of 46. Also, this season, in road games with a posted total of 5 goals or less, Minny has lost 6 of 9. The Flames have won 19 of 31 the past three seasons combined when they are at home with a posted total of 5 goals. Tremendous home dog line value here and the Flames have won 6 of their last 10 overall while Minnesota has lost 4 of its past 6 games.
Will Rogers
Houston vs. Denver
Pick: Houston
I’m not convinced the Nuggets can match scores with the Rockets (both are poor defensive teams)...
The set-up: The 7-11 Denver Nuggets will host the 12-7 Houston Rockets, who are fresh off a draining 132-127 (2-OT) win in Oakland, ending the Warriors’ 12-game winning streak. That game ended after midnight Colorado time, less than 21 hours before Friday's game at Pepsi Center is scheduled to tip off.
Houston: The Rockets figure to be weary but also pretty happy after ending Golden State's 12-game winning streak. James Harden (28.7-7.6-12.0) had another big game in the win, recording his fourth triple-double with 29 points, 15 rebounds and 13 assists. The Rockets have gotten a real boost a couple of weeks ago with the return of guard Patrick Beverley, who missed the season's first 11 games of the season with a left knee injury. Beverley is working his way back into shape and in eight games has averaged 6.5 PPG (also 4.6 RPG and 3.6 APG). He’s VERY important to Houston, as the Rockets are 6-2 since he returned to the lineup. "Pat's a dog," Harden told Bleacher Report. "He brings a lot to our team, especially on the defensive end."
Denver: The Nuggets lost 106-98 at home to Miami, the elm's third los in four games (also six home losses in its last eight!). Rookie Jamal Murray got off to a slow start but was named the NBA Western Conference Rookie of the Month for November, leading all Western Conference rookies in scoring with 10.4 points a game to go with 2.8 rebounds and 2.1 assists. He scored at least 18 points in four of six games to close the month, including a 24-point, six-rebound effort on Nov. 22 in a 110-107 victory over the Chicago Bulls. SFs Chandler (18.2 & 7.7) and Gallinari (16.8 7 4.5) lead Denver in scoring plus PG Mudiay (14.3-4.8-4.3) is developing into a quality player.
The pick: Denver owns the huge scheduling edge here but I’m not convinced the Nuggets can match scores with the Rockets (both are poor defensive teams), even with Houston coming off its win over Golden State.