SPORTS WAGERS
DENVER -4½ over Houston
This is a prime situational spot play on the Denver Nuggets, who own the last three victories between these two teams. However, the selling point here is not Denver’s recent dominance in this series or the fact they feature some prolific talent on their roster in Emmanuelle Mudiay, Will Barton and Danilo Gallinari. No, we are targeting Houston because of their double overtime victory against Golden State at the Oracle Center last night.
Golden State draws a lot of attention, especially on Thursday night as part of a TV double-header. Houston came into last night’s game as a double-digit road pooch but played their hearts out for 58 minutes and when it was over they celebrated like it was the final game of a seven-game series. It would be completely unreasonable to expect the Rockets to bring that same intensity here. One can only imagine the exhilaration that the Rockets felt after defeating the greatest show in sports on their home court. The Rockets will now travel to another time zone to go against an outfit entering on an extra day’s rest and the plane ride to Denver was also likely filled with celebration and cheer. This has to be considered one of the more difficult spots of the season so far. The NBA season is long and grueling and there are absolutely going to be flat spots for every single team. The Rockets put everything they had into last night’s game and will have little in the tank here while the Nuggets are geared up to put forth a strong effort, which in all likelihood will result in Denver putting this emotionally spent intruder away in the second half.
Cal Sports
Ohio vs Western Michigan
Play: Ohio +19
The Broncos are the first Michigan team to play for the MAC Championship since Central won it in 2009 and their opponent was also Ohio. Since that time Northern Illinois made six straight appearances representing the MAC West. Western is obviously playing for much more than a conference championship as a win here keeps them in play for a New Year’s Six spot and a 5 Million Dollar payday.
Western Michigan is a 19.5 point favorite and the total is 57 as of Monday evening. Western is 9-3 ATS on the season and was a favorite in all but their opener versus Northwestern. Ohio was 6-6 ATS on the season and was 3-0 ATS as an underdog and 0-1 ATS in a pick’em game. The Broncos went 8-4 O/U while Ohio went 1-11 O/U with ELEVEN STRAIGHT UNDERS!
The Broncos have my #8 rated offense scoring 37 or more points versus all 8 MAC opponents while also having my #48 defense giving up 30 or more points 3 times while holding 4 opponents to 10 points or less. Ohio’s has my #111 offense and has sputtered down the stretch scoring a total of 29 points their last two games while the defense is #59 in my rankings allowing a high of 27 points in MAC play while holding 3 of their final 5 opponents to 10 points or less.
The Broncos are the far superior team but pressure is a powerful equalizer. Ohio has played two top notch offenses as they went to Tennessee and held the Volunteers to 28 points and when they went to Toledo they held the Rockets to 26 points. Western Michigan has an amazing streak going as they have not lost the turnover battle in any game this year finishing even in 4 games and finishing +TO’s in the 8 games.
The key will be if Ohio can force Western Michigan into several turnovers and grab a lead which will force the Broncos to play a style they’re not accustom to. The points are worth taking as the Bobcats have four losses this season and they have been by 7, 7, 9 and 2 points.
Cal Sports
Colorado vs Washington
Play: Under 57.5
If you had these two teams meeting in the Pac-12 Championship this season you would be the only one. Many did pick Washington to win the Pac-12 North, however the media did have them second, but the media had Colorado projected last in the South as did most pre-season publications.
The Pac-12 Championship is in its 6th season with the game being held on the campus of one of the participants the first 3 years it moved to Levi Stadium, home of the SF 49ers, in 2014. This is the first appearance for both of these teams and only the second time in 6 years that both teams were ranked in the AP top 10 (Oregon #3, Arizona #8 in ’14)
As of Monday evening Washington was a 7 point favorite with an O/U line of 57.5. The Huskies are 6-6 ATS on the year but only finished 2-4 ATS their last 6 while the Buffaloes went 9-3 ATS. Washington was 8-4 O/U this year but went UNDER each of their final 3 games while Colorado went 5-7 O/U.
Three of the teams units are in my top 10 rankings as UW has my #4 offense and #10 defense with the CU having my #29 offense and #7 defense. Both teams went 8-1 on conference action and each team’s loss came against USC. Washington’s eight wins were all by 7 or more points and they scored 31 or more points in each victory. Colorado had 3 wins by a total of 11 points and their defense clearly led the way as that unit allowed only 16 PPG their last 8.
The early forecast calls for temperatures in the high 40’s or low 50’s and winds can always be in issue in the Bay Area. With two top 10 defenses the UNDER is the way to go. The Huskies have more playmakers but they also slow the pace when playing an upper echelon defense as their offense ran 62 plays versus Stanford, 56 plays at Utah, 64 plays versus USC and 66 plays last week versus Washington St. Colorado’s offense has been far from explosive and in their last 4 games they have averaged 3.6, 5.3, 6.0 and 4.6 yards/play. Expect a close game with both offense’s being conservative as they learn to handle this big stage.
Tony Finn
Colorado vs Washington
Play: Washington -7
The ole adage that “the more things change the more they say the same” doesn’t apply to the 2016 Pac-12 Conference Championship game. Since the Pac-12 Conference initiated their league title contest, in 2011, the only two teams to represent the North Division have been Oregon or Stanford. The South, however, has seen a different school each and every season. This year, neither Oregon or Stanford are part of the event but the contest this Saturday should be intriguing to say the least.
Colorado (10-2) won its first South Division title and Washington (11-1) will represent the North. It is of my opinion, that if Washington comes away the victor in this title affair, they will in fact hold their current No. #4 spot in the College Football Playoff rankings and face Alabama in the No #1 versus No #4 seed semi-final game on December 31st. This of course is dependent on Clemson winning their ACC Title game against Virginia Tech.
Washington was the preseason favorite according to the Finn Factor charts to represent the league’s best chance at being a part of the Final Four and that scenario has a chance to play itself out. The Huskies neither played their way out of the playoff pool by dropping their first game of the season, three weekends ago, to upstart USC. But Chris Petersen’s squad rebounded from the loss to the Trojans by dismantling Arizona State and then winning the acclaimed Apple Cub a last weekend over ranked Washington State, in a contest that wasn’t close, with the Huskies putting a 45-17 butt kicking on the Cougars.
The Buffaloes outplayed their preseason projections and while they were not expected to win the South it would be a mistake to completely sleep on the Buffaloes. The school from Boulder closed the season with six straight victories, and their only conference loss was on the road to USC, a common loss for both of the Pac 12 Championship game representatives. Buffs bench boss Mike MacIntyre and his squad closed the season out with a hard fought 27-22 win over the Utah Utes.
These two schools haven’t squared off in two years. The last meeting between the two saw Washington come out on top by a 38-23 margin in Boulder. This is a good Colorado team and much of the credit for the return of quality football in Colorado should go to coach MacIntyre. This is a team that is balance on both sides of the ball but the current talent base for the Buffs is more heartfelt than talent laden. The roster can be as physical as any team in the country but they don’t’ have the necessary speed and skilled players to keep pace with the Washington troupe.
The Huskies are not as physical as the Buffaloes but what they bring to the field is explosiveness on offense and speed on defense. The Washington Huskies are worthy of their chance to play in the 2016-17 Final Four and their staff will have them prepared to not only win on Saturday, but do so in an impressive fashion, leaving no doubt that Michigan should remain the No #5 team in the rankings with the Huskies representing the best of the “West of the Mississippi” in a game against the Crimson Tide on New Year’s Eve. Coach Petersen and his huskies home run capabilities on offense and their speed on defense trump the Colorado physicality and balance. Not only can the Huskies defense their side of the field they have had executed an average of nearly two plays per game this season be it from their offense, defense or exceptional special teams, of 40 yards or more.
While these two teams are not exactly the identical player personnel that represent the below trends Washington has been better in the latter part of the regular season over the last half decade.
The Buffaloes are 2-5 in their last seven December game while the Huskies are 6-1 over the same time period. And the favorite is a perfect 4-0 against the spread the last four times these two schools have met on the gridiron and overall Colorado is 0-6 ATS the last six times the two have met in Pac-12 play.
Ignore the media hype concerning some of the Washington defenders. Washington wins this game with a successful running attack and play action passes resulting in yet another handful of big plays that Colorado is unable to overcome.
David Banks
Colorado vs. Washington
Pick: Colorado +7.5
Ninth-ranked Colorado completed an impressive worst-to-first turnaround in the Pac-12. Last season, head coach Mike MacIntyre’s Buffaloes went 1-8 in the conference. With wins over ranked Washington State and Utah to close the season, Colorado finished 8-1 in the Pac-12 and 10-2 overall. It’s an amazing turnaround, but MacIntyre has done it right. Colorado is built around a stingy defense that 13th in the nation in scoring defense giving up 18.8 points a game. The Buffaloes are also very good at running the football averaging over 200 rushing yards per game and led by 1,000-yard rusher Phillip Lindsay (1,136 yards).
Sefo Liufau is the Colorado quarterback and is equally adept running and passing. He is the Buffs second-leading rusher with 483 yard and seven touchdowns on the ground and he has completed almost 65 percent of his passes for 2,150 yards. Liufau has thrown just three interceptions all year.
Winning the Pac-12 will require the Buffaloes best effort of the season as they face a very powerful Washington team. The Huskies are third nationally in scoring offense (44.8 points per game) and their defense is very good as well (17.8 points per game, 10th in the nation). Head coach Chris Petersen has performed a turnaround of his own building the Washington program back into a nationally prominent program. Quarterback Jake Browning has 3,162 passing yards and 40 touchdowns. The Huskies also have a 1,000-yard back in Myles Gaskin (1,180 yards) and still have a shot at the College Football Playoff with a win on Friday night.
Harry Bondi
OHIO +17 over Western Michigan
Yes, we realize how impressive Western Michigan has been this season, but this line is way too high. Ohio U is a very difficult team to blowout. All four of its losses this year were by single digits, and they come in with a 3-1 record as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a double-digit dog in conference play. Western Michigan is 8-3 ATS as a favorite this year, but just 2-2 when the line is 10 or more. The MAC Championship Game has also not been very good to power teams, as favorites of more than 7 points points in this game are just 1-5 ATS and teams that enter with an undefeated record have lost two of three straight up and are 0-3 ATS. “Closer than the experts think!” Take the Bobcats.
Bob Balfe
Knicks +1.5
These teams played the other night in Minnesota with the Knicks getting the road win. The TWolves went to the line and shot 25 more foul shots and still lost. I guarantee that won’t happen again tonight. Look for the foul shots to be about even and the Knicks to cash in at home. MSG is starting to see some life with the Knicks 7-3 at home this year. It’s time to get back to winning basketball in New York.
Dave Essler
Niagara / Marist Over 147.5
I could be way off on this, but I don't think so. In this game, I don't think the pace will be awesome, and rather than looking at how these teams score, I looked at how the defend, which is HORRID. In their last game against UMass Lowell, Marist let a bad and smaller team shoot 55% from the floor and actually out-rebound them. On the upside, Marist hasn't been turning the ball over, so as we say, more meaningful possessions. They're a bad offensive rebounding team, and Niagra will run off misses. Marist HAS been getting to the FT line and is shooting almost 75% from it - so those are all good things. Niagra gave up 80 to North Texas and scored 93 against Drexel. Niagra can shoot the three and also gets to the line a fair amount, and THEY have protected the ball well - and equally important haven't been turning people over on defense. So, there are lots of ways, including late free throws, for this to get there. Barring a brick-throwing contest, which is always possible in MAAC games - we should get this. And of course it IS the first Conference game, so there won't (shouldn't) be any lack of effort by either team. These Friday/Sunday MAAC games can present great opportunities going forward, as the rematches and quick look-aheads tend to carry more weight for me.
Brett Atkins
The Bobcats are 10-1-1 Under the total for the year, and just played to a 9-3 final their last time out. Solely based on that overwhelming stat, a strong case can be made for the Under being the play, but since this is the MAC Championship Game, I won't make a knee-jerk reaction to the Ohio Under trend so fast.
Undefeated Western Michigan just scored 55 points in their win over Toledo, and the Broncos are usually good for a big number, as they have scored 37 points or more in each of their last 9 games, and are 4-1 Over their last 5 games played.
Ohio University has played the majority of the season without the services of their starting and backup quarterbacks, but they will surely need to find some kind of offense tonight if they wish to pull off the massive upset. The Bobcats defense is tough enough to possibly force a turnover or two tonight that could lead to some quick points as well.
These schools did not meet this season, but the last 4 in the series have all topped the total.
I will go against the 10-1-1 Under run the Bobcats are on, and play the Over on Friday in the MAC Title Game.
1* OHIO-WESTERN MICHIGAN OVER
Brad Wilton
Too many points for a Washington team to lay to a capable Colorado team that could actually win this game outright in my estimation.
I don't believe the Huskies have faced a tough enough schedule to warrant them laying more than a field goal on a neutral field, and they are just 2-4 against the spread their last 6 games on the season.
Colorado comes in with an 8-2-1 spread mark their last 11 tries when listed as the underdog, and they showed me something with their gritty 27-22 win on Saturday night to ensure they punched their ticket for this game at Levi's Stadium.
The Buffaloes and the Huskies did not play this season, but looking over the results from 2011 through 2014, it's the Washington Huskies that own 4 straight series wins and 4 straight series covers over Colorado.
So we have a quadruple revenge angle working tonight in Santa Clara, and we have the team with the better defense in the Buffs actually getting a slew of points to work with. I like that formula, I like it a lot!
Backing the Buffs plus the points in this Pac 12 Championship Game.
3* COLORADO
Chris Jordan
I love the way Alabama true freshman Braxton Key has gotten comfortable in his first season with 'Bama, as he already leads the Tide in points per game (10.7) while ranking second on the team in field-goal percentage (61.5 percent), 3-point shooting (61.5 percent, 8 of 13) and blocks (6).
Alabama steps to the wood tonight ranked 21st in the nation in scoring defense (60 ppg. allowed) and 25th in turnover margin (+4).
What might be most impressive about this team is the reserves, who are averaging 33 points per game and are outscoring their opponents' bench by an average of 18 points per contest.
On the flipside, we have a Texas team that opened the campaign ranked No. 21 in the nation, but comes into this tussle with 'Bama after losing three straight games. It doesn't get any easier, as the Tide will roll.
Take the road pup.
2* ALABAMA
Bob Valentino
My free play is on the Los Angeles Clippers laying the cheap number on the road to the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Clippers are in after J.J. Redick scored 23 points and Chris Paul added 16 while they snapped a three-game losing streak with a 113-94 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers last night. DeAndre Jordan had 15 rebounds for the Clippers, and I think they'll arrive in the Big Easy fired up for this Friday night affair.
The Clippers outscored the Cavaliers 27-15 in the third, when the defending NBA champs displayed frustration and vividly lost their focus, the same way J.R. Smith lost his during the previous game for a quick hug with Jason Terry.
Remember this is the same team that opened the season 14-2. Last night the Clippers were back in touch with one another, as the chemistry was magical. They had a season-high 33 assists and will carry the sharing over to tonight in this game.
3* CLIPPERS
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for tonight is on the Denver Nuggets, laying a low number to the Houston Rockets, who arrive in the Mile High City after outlasting the Golden State Warriors, 132-127 in double overtime last night.
The victory ended Golden State's 12-game winning streak, as James Harden notched his fourth triple-double of the season with 29 points, 15 rebounds and 13 assists. The beard put the Rockets ahead with a 30-foot 3-pointer with 3:12 left in the second overtime, then hit a pair of free throws with 2:10 to go following a flagrant foul on Draymond Green.
All that excitement, all that energy and now you're asking the Rockets to duplicate it in the altitude Denver offers? Make note, as Houston prepares for its second game on back-to-back nights, it was swept 3-0 in last season's series with Denver, after going 4-0 in 2014-15.
I don't see the Rockets with any energy tonight, as they will come out flat while the Nuggets will be there to take advantage with a solid win and cover on their home court.
5* NUGGETS
Chip Chirimbes
Clippers vs. Pelicans
Play: Pelicans +5
The pressure is off the Clippers who won as 'our' 'Highest-Rated winner over Cleveland last night and now they head to New Orleans and they my get caught celebrating 'our' win on Bourbon Street. The Pelicans who got off to a terrible start with a number of players unable to play have come back strong winning their last five at home. Tonight it's the Pelicans who ambush the Clippers.
Brandon Shively
Orlando vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia ML
It is not often that the 76ers will be a home favorite. It’s only happened 11 times since the 2013 season. The results have been good for them though with a 8-3 SU record (72.7%) including 4-0 SU their last 4. Tonight they face an Orlando team playing with no rest and just lost a tough game to a Memphis team that is playing banged up.
NBA Home favorites coming off 4 consecutive losses since 2010 are good for a 65% winning clip since 2010 (159-83) including 7-1 SU this year. Since last year, teams are a strong 26-9 SU (74%) in this spot. We can tighten the angle by bringing the opponent in with no rest and these home favorites are 8-0 SU since last year.
Another angle here we can use here is: Playing on NBA home favorites off 4 consecutive losses playing with revenge. These teams are 19-4 (82.6%) the L23 times it’s been applied.
Orlando is a bad shooting team that struggles to score. Philly is well rested playing on 3 days rest. NBA home favorites playing on 3 days rest and off 4 consecutive losses are 13-3 SU since 2010.