Free Picks for Friday, December 30th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Vernon Croy
North Carolina / Stanford Under 54.5
This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and I have this game staying well under the posted total Friday afternoon. The Cardinal will be without their #1 offensive weapon in RB Christian McCaffrey, who is sitting out to prepare for the NFL draft, and this is a major blow to the Cardinal offense, who rushed for 215 yards per game this season, while passing for just 159.1 YPG. The Cardinal will have to lean on their stout defense in this game, and that unit has allowed just 20.2 PPG this season, which ranks 16th best in the country. The Tar Heels allowed just 21 PPG over their last 3 games and just 24.9 PPG overall this season. The Tar Heels have allowed just 186.3 pypg this season. However, they have allowed 232.2 rypg, so you can expect the Cardinal to still have some success on the ground, which will also eat up the clock.
Oskeim Sports
North Carolina vs Stanford
Play: North Carolina +3
The line in this game is correct as my math model favors Stanford by three points after taking into account the absence of running backs Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) and Elijah Hood (North Carolina). McCaffrey has decided to bail on his teammates by skipping the Hyundai Sun Bowl to prepare for the NFL combine, a decision predicated upon self interests and financial gain.
Hood is out with an undisclosed medical issue but has stated that he'll be returning to Chapel Hill next year. The absence of McCaffrey is obviously significant in that he has racked up 6.191 all-purpose yards since 2015, the most by any player over a two-year stretch in FBS history.
However, McCaffrey battled injuries all season and garnered just 570 yards in Stanford's first seven games before compiling 991 rushing yards in his final five games of the regular season, including posting a school record 284 rushing yards versus California.
Stanford's coaching staff is really excited about the future of running back Bryce Love, who averaged an impressive 7.4 yards per rush attempt this season (McCaffrey averaged 6.4 yards per rush attempt).
In Stanford's final five games, its ground attack averaged 337 rushing yards at 7.7 yards per rush attempt against teams that would combine to allow just 6.1 yards per rush play to a mediocre group of running backs.
The Cardinal should have success moving the chains on the ground this season against a decent North Carolina run defense that is 0.1 yards per play better than average (4.5 yards per rush attempt to teams that would combine to average 4.6 yards per rush attempt).
The issue facing Stanford is the coaching staff's inexplicable decision to replace starting quarterback Ryan Burns with Keller Chryst. Burns rated 0.4 yards per pass play better than average during his starts, whereas Chryst has been 1.1 yards per pass attempt worse than average as a starter. Chryst will once again struggle against a solid North Carolina secondary that is 0.2 yards per pass attempt better than average in 2016.
Meanwhile, North Carolina enters postseason play with a potent offense that is averaging 33.1 points and 442 total yards per game at 6.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 6.0 yards per play to a mediocre offense. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky has been prolific through the air, throwing for 294 yards per game (23rd in country) with an incredible 28-4 ratio.
Trubisky's breakout campaign has resulted in having his name mentioned as a potential First Round pick in the NFL Draft. he absence of Hood definitely hurts, but the Tar Heels have been impressed with TJ Logan, who has rushed for 578 yards at 5.7 yards per carry this season. Hood had rushed for 858 yards at 5.9 yards per carry before getting injured.
From a technical standpoint, North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss, 4-1 ATS in its last five games versus teams with a winning record and 3-0-1 ATS as an underdog versus Pac-12 Conference opponents. ACC bowl underdogs off an upset loss are a perfect 6-0 ATS against foes off consecutive wins.
Finally, college bowl underdogs of at least three points off an upset loss in their season finale are 28-5-1 ATS versus an opponent off back-to-back wins, with the last victory coming by 6+ points.
Cal Sports
Florida St vs Michigan
Play: Florida St +7
This is the third meeting between these storied programs. Both previous games were played in Ann Arbor with the Michigan winning in 1986 and Florida St winning in 1991. The Wolverines has made two previous Orange Bowl appearances losing to eventual National Champ Oklahoma in 1996 while beating Alabama in OT in 2000. Florida St is making their 10th Orange Bowl appearance having posted a 4-5 record with a win in their last trip versus Northern Illinois in 2012. The Seminoles also played here early this season coming away with a 20-19 win versus the Hurricanes and Florida State has actually won all 5 meetings against Miami, Fl since they moved into this venue.
Motivation is one of these most important factors when handicapping bowl games and the Florida St Seminoles are thrilled to be here. After a 63-20 loss at Louisville and then a 37-35 loss to North Carolina on October 1st the Seminoles hope for a National Championship disappeared. While many thought FSU would fold they won 6 of their last 7 with a questionable 3 point loss to Clemson being their only blemish. FSU did face a pair of top 10 defenses in Clemson and Florida averaging 33 PPG and 417 YPG but it must be noted both were at home. On offense FSU was my #8 ranked team as Deondre Francois grew up quickly and was the nation’s only freshman to throw for 300 yards adding an 18-6 ratio. In the past 2 season Power-5 RB’s have topped 1,600 rush yards while averaging over 6.0 YPC only 7 times and FSU’s Dalvin Cook has done it each of the last two years (’16 Freeman (Tex), McCaffrey (Stan) / ’15 Fournette (LSU), Freeman (Oreg), Elliott (Ohio St). The Seminoles have my #17 defense and after allowing 42 PPG in their first four versus FBS teams they clearly regrouped. DE DeMarcus Walker leads the nation with 15 sacks.
While the Orange Bowl would be the top goal for most teams Michigan was still hoping for a play-off berth on Selection Sunday. They mauled four of their first six teams winning by a combined 241-27 but were losing against Colorado until their QB was KO’d and then UM beat Wisconsin 14-7. Down the stretch the Wolverines went 2-4 ATS including a one point cover versus Ohio St in OT. QB Wilson Speight started all but one game (Indiana) throwing for 2,375 yards with a 17-6 ratio. The Wolverines rushed for more yards than they threw for and while De’Veon Smith led with 810 yards he only had a 4.9 YPC. Chris Evans, Karan Higdon and Ty Isaac all had between 417 and 565 yards with 7.1, 6.2 and 5.6 YPC’s respectively. Only 3 players caught over 14 passes with Amara Darboh (726, 15.9) and TE Jake Butt (518, 12.0) leading the way. Michigan’s defense finished the regular season as my #3 stop unit and the same 11 players started all 12 games. Jabrill Peppers gets most of the headlines but EIGHT players had 3.5 or more sacks with Taco Chalton the leader with 8.5.
Michigan was the popular pick to win the National Championship pre-season and their popularity never wavered. They have had inflated lines the entire season and that certainly hold true today. Florida St meanwhile is the forgotten team with three losses but I basically have these teams even. The Wolverines are facing the best offense they have seen this year and besides Ohio St every other team they faced had an offense I ranked #54 or higher! The Seminoles have only been a dog 4 times in their last 77 games and they are 3-1 ATS in that role including 2-0 ATS this year. On the flipside Michigan has not been a single digit dog all year as they were a double digit favorite in their first 11 games and a dog in their regular season finale. The War Chant will be loud!
DAVE COKIN
ARIZONA AT CALIFORNIA
PLAY: ARIZONA +1
Potentially long story short here, as this is mostly a stat fit for me. But here are a few additional words on tonight’s key PAC-12 clash between the Wildcats and Golden Bears.
Both Arizona and Cal have had to battle through early season physical issues, and I think both coaches have to be pleased with where their teams are at this juncture. An important add for the Wildcats tonight as Parker Jackson-Cartwright is expected to get back on the floor. He’ll probably see limited minutes, but for a team that has been as shorthanded as ‘Zona has been, getting him back for even 15 minutes is significant.
This figures to be a defensive rumble where good looks and fast breaks are at a premium as both teams defend really well. If that’s the case, I’ll side with the team that simply shoots it better, both from the field and the foul line. That’s Arizona, so in a pick the winner game, I’m siding with the Wildcats.
Sleepyj
Denver -11
One of my favorite handicaps in the NBA has arrived...Bad teams on a back to back in a altitude spot...We have that here with the 76ers tonight...Philly got romped last night in Utah by 17 points and now having to play a high paced offense in the Nuggets will result in the same result from last night...Philly in the late 3rd and 4th quarter will fold up like a cheap suit...If it was a better team getting DD, i would lay off the game, but this Philly team isn't anything special and this line is certain to rise...I would lay the -11 without hesitation...This game IMO sets up for a very ugly blowout loss for the 76ers tonight...Philly has now lost 4 in a row and the same situation that we went against last night with the Suns will rear it's ugly head for the Sixers tonight...3 straight west coast road games, coupled with holiday travel etc....Denver has won two in a row and this might be a little stretch the Nuggets get healthy and pick up some wins...i have this game rated as a 3*** selection and I'm releasing it as a free play today...This one gets ugly tonight and I expect the Nuggets to run the Sixers out of the gym with a 120+ point showing.
Brad Wilton
Your free play for Friday is the Under in the TCU-Georgia meeting in Memphis at the Liberty Bowl.
This total is one of the lower ones by bowl standards, but looking over the stat lines, my conclusion is you play this one Low.
TCU has gone 6-0 Under the total in their last 6 December games, and they did play Unders in 7 of their 12 games contested this season. Throw in the Horned Frogs 8-1-1 Under ledger in their last 10 bowl games, and a solid case can be made for the Low simply based on the Frogs' numbers.
As for Georgia, they also played 7 of their 12 games this season Under the total, and they have played their last 5 neutral site games Under the posted total.
With Nick Chubb and Sony Michel running the football for UGa, expect the clock to be in motion more than it is stopped today.
TCU-Georgia Under on Friday.
2* TCU-GEORGIA UNDER
Scott Spreitzer
USC vs. Oregon
Play: USC +7
Big last second win for the Ducks when they knocked-off UCLA, 89-87 on Wednesday. The odds were against them trailing by eight points with 3 1/2 minutes left in the game and by four points with 20-seconds to go in regulation. Dana Altman's crew won the game despite making just 11 of 30 3-point attempts. The deep perimeter has been their Achilles heel so far this season, making just 31.9% of their attempts. They'll need their treys to fall against a USC team that allows opponents to make just 39% of their FGA. As far as the interior game is concerned, we do believe Chimezie Metu can match Chris Boucher. Meanwhile, Andy Enfield hasn't had Bennie Boatwright for much of the season, but it's been no problem with five other players averaging between 15 ppg & 9.7 ppg. They also have Jordan McLaughlin and De'Anthony Melton's play-making ability, combining for 116 assists on the season. The Ducks have covered just two of their last eight as home chalk, while USC is on a 9-3 ATS run in Eugene. We believe they'll hang the number tonight.
Dave Price
Minnesota Timberwolves PK
The Minnesota Timberwolves got off to a terrible start this season amidst big expectations. But now the they're finally starting to live up to their potential, and I like the price we are getting with them tonight as a pick 'em at home against the Milwaukee Bucks. The Timberwolves are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall while winning four of those outright. The Bucks are just 5-8 SU & 5-8 ATS on the road this season. Milwaukee is 20-43 ATS in its last 63 games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. Bets against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset win as a road underdog are 172-109 ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Bucks are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games.
Jack Jones
Georgia/TCU Over 48.5
I don’t see a whole lot of value in the side of this game as I think it’s very evenly-matched. However, I do see some value in the total of 48.5 points. I think the books have set the number too low in this one because both of the offensive strengths play into the weaknesses of the defenses.
TCU has the advantage of unfamiliarity against the Georgia defense. The Horned Frogs spread the field with many 4-and-5-wide sets and the Bulldogs just aren’t used to it. And even Kirby Smart’s defenses at Alabama struggled against spread teams like TCU. He clearly hasn’t figured out a way to stop them. The Bulldogs gave up 34 points to Tennessee and 45 to Ole Miss earlier this season, two teams who run similar offenses.
TCU’s defense is on the smaller side because it is built to stop the pass-happy Big 12 offenses. But when the Horned Frogs faced a physical, downhill running attack against Kansas State in the finale, they gave up a whopping 336 rushing yards. You can bet that Nick Chubb and company will be in line for a big game on the ground in this contest as well.
The Bulldogs rushed for at least 200 yards in six of their games this season. They averaged 197 rushing yards and 5.3 yards per carry on the year. The Horned Frogs also gave up 334 rushing yards to Oklahoma State late in the season, and a combined 859 rushing yards in their final three contests. Freshman QB Jacob Eason will benefit as much as anyone from this extra bowl practice. He should have a big day passing as well in the play-action game as the Horned Frogs commit extra defenders to try and stop the run.
TCU still averaged 31.7 points and 475 yards per game this season despite some key injuries on offense. Kenny Hill is healthy now and threw for 3,062 yards with 15 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Kyle Hicks rushed for 954 yards and 12 scores as well, so there is some balance here.
The OVER is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last six non-conference games. The OVER is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last five games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game.
Brad Diamond
La Salle +8½
Dangerous LSU not the program of the past littered with transfers trying to compete with Nova, Temple and SJU in the Philadelphia area. However, with an injury affecting the Flyers rotation here, feel the Explorers can come under the inflated price.
Mike Anthony
Florida State vs. Michigan
Play: Florida State +7
#6 Michigan (-7) vs #11 Florida State On 3rd downs, Florida State has been awesome, they have been converting 45% of their attempts. Florida State running game with Dalvin Cook - doesn't stop until the chains move, his body is very hard to contain when he gets moving forward. Wilton Speight sometimes throws the ball low, allowing opponents Dline to get their hands up and find balls when they leave his hand. Wilton Speight is also coming off a shoulder injury - that isn't going to help him in his game. DE DeMarcus Walker is long, and his active hands will give the Michigan QB problems. Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Florida State pulls the upset behind their athletes and team speed while Michigan is still wondering how their season fell apart.
Frank Jordan
TCU vs. Georgia
Play: Georgia
TCU finished just 6-6 on the season as they started 3-1 and 4-2, but finished the season with losses in four of their last six games including a 30-6 loss last time out. Georgia went 7-5 on the season after almost having three separate seasons, starting 3-0, losing four of five and finishing up with wins in three of their last four games, nearly made it four in a row heading into this game, but for a 28-27 loss to Georgia Tech last time out. TCU didn't fair well through the air as they scored 16 passing touchdowns and also threw 14 interceptions. TCU fared better on the ground scoring 29 touchdowns. Kenny Hill in the last six games has just three touchdown passes and five interceptions. Georgia had a balanced offense with 16 passing touchdowns and 14 rushing touchdowns and fewer than 130 yards difference between rushing and passing yards gained. Look for Georgia's very even offense to keep TCU guessing and open up some play action plays and some deep shots forcing TCU into passing leading to turnovers and short fields as Georgia wins comfortably 27-20.
Jim Feist
Pistons at Hawks
Pick: Over
Detroit is rested and off a poor defensive game, allowing 119 points at home to Milwaukee. They face an Atlanta team that averages over 100 ppg but allowed 103 ppg. The Over is 4-1 in the Hawks last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. And when these division rivals meet the over is 5-1.
Jimmy Boyd
Bucks/Wolves Over 207½
I'm expecting a very high-scoring game tonight when the Bucks visit the Timberwolves. Milwaukee has been lights out on the offensive side of the floor of late. The Bucks just put up 119 on the road against the Pistons, which was their 5th straight game scoring at least 102 points. It's also the 10th time in their last 11 that they hit at least the century mark. Minnesota has also been getting it done on offense, scoring 100+ in each of their last 5 games and are averaging 105.3 ppg at home on the season.
Not only do we have two strong offenses going at it, but we have two teams that struggle to lock teams down on the defensive side of the floor. Milwaukee is giving up 102.4 ppg and Minnesota is allowing 105.8 ppg. Both teams should be playing at a faster than normal pace, as this will be just he 2nd game in the last 4 days for both teams.
OVER is 5-0 in the Bucks last 5 when playing on 1 day of rest, 7-0 in their last 7 when facing an opponent that scored 100+ in their previous game and 12-4 in their last 16 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. OVER is also 31-19 in the Timberwolves last 50 when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and 8-3 in their last 11 games played on Friday night.