SPORTS WAGERS
Stanford -2 over North Carolina
Some may expect the Cardinal to be in a bit of a bad spot here considering they will not have their premiere playmaker Christian McCaffrey suiting up for the Sun Bowl. Players reportedly gave McCaffrey a round of applause when he announced his decision to leave the team in order to prepare for the draft. We're betting some of it was lukewarm and we’re also betting that it is going to immensely motivate the rest of the team to show McCaffrey they’re just as good without him. McCaffrey not being on the field is certainly an impactful narrative for this game, as he is an absolute workhorse and the anchor of the Cardinal offense. In 2016, no player in all of college football had more touches than McCaffrey and given the fact Stanford is up against a perceived formidable ACC foe, his absence has many wondering if Stanford will be stymied. What we know for sure is we are laying less points than we should be because the workhorse didn’t want to risk injury.
However, North Carolina has a true Achilles Heel of their own in that they are one of the worst teams in the country in stopping the run. Whether it be Christian McCaffrey or Bryce Love, who is due to be getting the nod in McCaffrey’s place, the Tar Heel defense will likely be run over in the same manner they have been all season long We have to like that situation because Stanford features a truly robust and methodical smash-mouth rushing attack that ranked 33rd nationally. In addition, UNC lives and dies by lighting up the scoreboard but the problem is Stanford has one of the best scoring defenses in America by allowing just 20.7 points per game. That is so impressive because Stanford is acclimated to a West Coast brand of football in the Pac-12 which is all offense so this is by no means a step up in class for the dog. Stanford plays a rugged and physical style of football where a finesse approach is the trend indigenous to their conference. The reason why Stanford was able to get off an early season skid and finish strong by winning six out of seven is because they never abandoned their identity and like an anesthesia -- give it time and their target becomes comatose like.
North Carolina has been up against teams that adopt a similar identity to the Cardinals in their approach to the game. One example would be the University of Georgia. The Dawgs, like Stanford, pride themselves on playing physical defense and focus on establishing the run. While UGA may have had problems down the stretch, they had no problem shutting the door on UNC’s offense in the second half of the Chic-Fil-A Kickoff Classic while springing their bull running back Nick Chubb loose on this soft front rushing defense. UNC lost two of their final three games this season when they were spotting double-digit points to the rivals they encountered in each of these affairs (N.C, State and Duke). In both these games Duke and N.C. State managed to turn out over 225 yards each on the ground. Stanford has the rubric for success already and other teams have proven it to be effective. This one may get out of hand quickly if Stanford gets going early.
South Alabama +14 over Air Force
The combination of three variables produces an easy sell on the Falcons in this contest. First, Air Force enters off their second consecutive win against one of the premier mid-major powers in all of college football in Boise State. Second, the United States Air Force Academy is proud to hoist the Commander In Chief’s Trophy after they swept the board against Army and Navy in dominant fashion. Third, the Falcons enter with a 9-3 record which on paper looks far more idyllic compared to that of the 6-6 USA Jaguars. However, we urge all to take a second glance at some details that suggest the value here is on USA ad not the USAF.
Air Force may indeed enter with a hot hand winning five straight but they are 2-6 ATS in their previous eight, including their straight up wins against Boise State and Army to comprise those two ATS victories in the sample. Air Force has more or less won games closer than they should have against mediocre opponents and they lost games they were heavily favored to win. Nothing typifies this more than Air Force losing at home in overtime to the now 7-7 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. While Hawaii certain deserves all the credit they get, the Falcons were giving away 17 points to Hawaii and then fell by a touchdown to the Warriors. Air Force’s three losses this season all came in unison, as they also fell as a 13-point road favorite at Wyoming and a 14-point home favorite hosting New Mexico in consecutive weeks. We can let the losses go, as the Cowboys and Lobos combined for 17 wins this season but what we cannot take our attention off of was the fact the Falcons were giving away points like candy.
While the Jaguars stand at 6-6 this season, they own outright wins against Mountain West Champion and Las Vegas Bowl victor San Diego State and a road victory to kick off 2016 at Mississippi State. In both instances, the Jags were taking back at least 18 points. Recently, USA has failed to cover in their previous five but we can chalk that up to the markets smartening up when it comes to the potency this team has as a live dog. However, their stock has since diminished and now it’s the right time to buy some more. To wrap this up, the Jaguars lost four games this season by a touchdown or less with overtime required in one of these affairs. To recap: Air Force was 9-3, won the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, finished the year with five straight wins and beat Boise State the last week of the season but the Mountain West's three most desirable bowl assignments went elsewhere. The Falcons were left with an uninspiring matchup with a 6-6 South Alabama team. San Diego State and Wyoming played non-Power 5 conference bigshots in Houston and BYU, while Boise State had a crack at a Big 12 foe in Baylor. Air Force players have vented their frustration as freely as their fans and this Jaguars' outfit is more than capable of smelling a wounded prey.
Florida State +235 over Michigan
When comparing the two teams on paper, Michigan has the more attractive record of 10-2. Furthermore, Big Blue also boasts the credential of at one time sitting as high as #2 in many polls and retained stature unanimously as a College Football Playoff favorite. However, the Wolverines seemed to get in their own way. First, they would be shocked on the road at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa when this 24-point underdog in Iowa would upend the Wolverines in a 14-13 stunner on a game-winning field goal. In the follow-up game sandwiched between Iowa and their arch rival Ohio State, Michigan would skate by Indiana 20-10, once again spotting an imposing number of 24 to the Hoosiers and failing to cover. In their season finale against Ohio State in Columbus, Michigan had a chance to right their ills but instead blew a 10-point lead. A fourth quarter rally by the Buckeyes ultimately resulted in Ohio State ousting their hated foe in overtime. Over the span of two weeks, Michigan fell from the favorite to win the Big 10 and a strong contender for the National Championship to crash land in the warm shores of Southern Florida.
The Seminoles tell a different tale regarding their arrival to the Orange Bowl. Florida State rallied from 21 points down to defeat Ole Miss on Labor Day and from that point on, the writing was clear on the wall that the ‘Noles were bound to get hit at some point. Such an event occurred with extremity when the Louisville Cardinals hung 63 points on the Seminoles, thus putting the Cardinals on the map and serving as the catalyst in the LaMar Jackson Heisman campaign. However, Florida State would respond in what in retrospect must be classed as an impeccable win with a 55-35 thrashing of a 10-win USF football team on the road in Tampa. FSU would then only lose two more games by a combined margin of five points against a red-hot North Carolina squad and an undefeated Clemson team. Despite their pitfalls, Florida State managed to go on the road and defeat Miami, beat N.C. State in Raleigh and hang 45 points on a vaunted Boston College defense. Furthermore, anFlorida State’s most recent accolade was smoking their cross-state rivals Florida by a score of 31-13, once again lighting up a potent defense. Oh and one more thing, Florida State has a running back that seemingly has long since been forgotten and who was once on a short list for Heisman hopefuls in the pre-season in Dalvin Cook. Cook has been prolific in 2016, rushing for 1,620 yards and 19 touchdowns. Cook has been a beast. Dalvin went off for 169 yards and four touchdowns against Clemson, 153 yards and a score against Florida and 108 and a touchdown against B.C. In his previous three games, Cook has 492 yards and six touchdowns.
Michigan may boast impressive defensive numbers but it is worth noting that much of these accolades were bolstered against Hawaii, UCF, Rutgers, Illinois, Maryland and Indiana. The Wolverines also stomped on a different Penn State team earlier in the season when the Nittany Lions were still trying to figure out who they were and were missing 14 regular that day. Against proficient offenses that mirror the potency of Florida State, Michigan has given up an average of 29 points as Colorado picked up 28 against them in the Big House and Ohio State accumulated 30 against them in a come-from-behind win. Did you watch Colorado yesterday? They were moving the ball at will against the Wolverines until their QB was injured late in the first half and did not return. Had he not been injured, the Buffs may have put up 40 or more on Michigan. Even their arch rival, Michigan State managed to score 23 against them. How did all three teams achieve success? They ran the football against this Michigan defense and both Ohio State and Michigan State had eclipsed 200 total rushing yards against them. Now Michigan has to face what may be their toughest test in terms of caliber of running backs. The seven points here are sweet and are absolutely worth taking but we’re going to be more aggressive and take State in its own backyard to win outright because that’s is precisely what we expect will happen.
Brandon Shively
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma St.
Pick: Oklahoma St.
Oklahoma State’s coach Brad Underwood came from Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks beat West Virginia last year in the NCAA Tourney. I like this angle as Underwood has carried his same attack defense to Oklahoma State, but has sped up the tempo dramatically. I think this fast tempo havoc will frustrate West Virginia, who plays much better at home than on the road. Both team’s are similar in many aspects, fast tempo, good offensive rebounding, and #1 and #3 in the nation in turnover percentage on defense. Oklahoma State has lost the last 4 meetings but this is their best team in years that fits Underwood’s system. I think this is a great spot early in conference play for the Cowboy’s to make a statement on their homecourt.
Drew Martin
South Alabama vs. Air Force
Play: Over 58
Air Force’s the triple option offense closed the regular season hitting on all cylinders as it averaged 366.6 ypg on the ground during a five-game winning streak. South Alabama’s offense enjoyed similar late season success. Over the Jaguars’ last four games, the offense averaged 224.8 ypg on the ground and 259.8 ypg through the air. In looking at this matchup, both offenses should maintain their current form in what has the potential to be a high-scoring affair.
One interesting dynamic to this handicap is the health and status of Air Force quarterback Nate Romine who remains listed as questionable. I mentioned earlier how potent the Falcons’ offense had been during their five-game win streak. Well, much of the damage was courtesy of backup Arion Worthman who as a sophomore appears to the be the future of the AFA offense. Regardless of who starts, both quarterbacks are capable of making the offense hum, especially against a South Alabama defense that ranked in the bottom half of the Sun Belt. And that's concerning considering the Sun Belt was significantly down across the board offensively. Last season, seven teams averaged over 415 ypg of total offense. This season, only two teams topped that mark. One of those squads was Troy who rolled up 585 yards (7.31 ypp) against USA.
South Alabama's offensive surge was predicated on balance. The Jags failed to top 100 yards on the ground in their first five games against FBS competition. But the steady development of dual threat quarterback Dallas Davis helped open holes in the run game. USA has averaged over 6 yards per play in four straight games and has a shot to keep that streak going against an Air Force defense that faded down the stretch. The Falcons' season long numbers look good (369 ypg allowed, 2nd MWC). But in conference play, the stop unit allowed 6.2 ypp and 7.3 ypp its last three games. Look for both offenses to move the football in this one as we look over the total.
Harry Bondi
Nebraska / Tennessee Over 56.5
There have been suspensions on the Nebraska side that has caused major line movement, but we think that creates a ton of value on the over, which opened at 61. First off, Tennessee has a historically bad defense. The Vols gave up 33.8 points per game on the road this season and an alarming 460 total yards per game overall. During the final three weeks of the season against the average offenses of Vanderbilt, Missouri and Kentucky, the team allowed an average of 39.3 points per game and an average of 352 yards rushing per game. So, even without Tommy Armstrong at QB, Nebraska will get its share of points today. Meanwhile, the suspensions affected the Husker defense much more than the offense, and that will allow Tennessee’s dynamic QB Joshua Dobbs to do his thing and help his team score right around its average of 37 points per game.
David Banks
Michigan vs. Florida State
Pick: Florida State +7
The Capital One Orange Bowl on Friday night features two teams whose seasons didn’t turn out as they had wished. For sixth-ranked Michigan, a loss to Ohio State in the regular season finale derailed any hopes of the Wolverines making the College Football Playoff. Florida State’s CFP hopes went down the drain early in the season when Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson torched the Seminoles for five touchdowns in the third game of the season.
Both teams will try and salvage the season with an Orange Bowl victory. Michigan and head coach Jim Harbaugh will do it with defense. The Wolverines are second in the nation in both scoring (12.5 points per game) and total (252.7 yards per game) defense. Michigan is very good against the run allowing just 116.8 yards per game and has held opponents to just 3.1 yards per carry. A big part of that Wolverines defense is All-American Jabrill Peppers. The 6-1, 210-pound Peppers will line up all over the field and create havoc for the Seminoles and their star RB Dalvin Cook.
Cook, who is third in ACC history with 4,319 yards rushing, is one of the nation’s best at the position. He rushed for 1,620 yards and 18 touchdowns this season and is a likely first-round draft choice next spring if he elects to forgo his senior year. Cook, a finalist for the Doak Walker Award, is also a receiving threat as evidenced by his 426 yards receiving this season.
Michigan will have QB Wilton Speight back after an injury to his left collarbone kept him out of the Wolverines final two games. Senior TE Jake Butt caught 43 passes for 518 yards and is arguably the best tight end in the nation. The Wolverines will go up against an FSU defense that was considered to be one of the best in the country at the beginning of the season. They lost All-Everything free safety Derwin James early in the season and the defense has never been the same.
Buster Sports
Oregon -7
Oregon comes into their game with USC with their heads held high as they just knocked off the Number 2 Team in the country in UCLA. Tonight they play a team who they have owned as they have beat USC 12 times in a row. It says here that it will be 13 tonight. Both these teams will battle for the top spot in the PAC 12. Oregon came out of the gates a little rusty, only winning 2 of their first 4 games. Now it seems that they are firing on all cylinders. USC has not lost all year with a 14-0 record. It is a little concerning to us that they allowed 46 second half points to lowly Oregon St. in their last game. This is the first time they have played back to back road games and doing the Corvallis to Eugene trip is never easy on any squad. The momentum from the big win gives Oregon another win tonight.
Tony Finn
Nebraska vs Tennessee
Play: Over 58.5
The Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Tennessee Vols (-6.5, 58) take Nissan Stadium field in Nashville on Friday afternoon for a scheduled 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff in the Music City Bowl. American Mortgage Music City Bowl singing the blues. This 2016 postseason tilt brings back memories of when these two schools were perennial national powers and typically were a part of the New Year’s Day bowl slate.
Both clubs, Big 10 Nebraska and SEC Tennessee are coming off underachieving seasons. Nebraska started the season winning its first seven games before closing the campaign with three losses in the final five contests. Injuries at quarterback plagued the ‘Huskers in the final two months and Tommy Armstrong (hamstring) listed as doubtful for Friday afternoons affair will likely give way to backup Ryker Fyfe. Armstrong has suffered through a nagging hamstring injury for more than a month and didn’t participate in the start of bowl practices. Earlier this week, coach Mike Riley called him “that emergency guy,” which pushes Fyfe into the bowl limelight. Fyfe will not have the services of the team’s most dangerous offensive weapon, receiver Jordan Westerkamp, whose career ended due to a knee injury.
The Cornhuskers lived up to their defensive history in 2016. The stop-unit ranked 31st in scoring defense and 21st in total defense at the close of the regular season.
The Volunteers closed their regular slate on an offensive tear. The Tennessee team averaged 50 points per game over their final four games behind the outstanding play of quarterback Joshua Dobbs. The Vols also feature stalwart wide receiver Josh Malone who ranked second in the conference with 10 receiving . The Tennessee stop unit was the team’s Achilles. The Vols defense ranked 109th in FBS in total defense and 73rd in scoring defense.
College football pundits were vocal about the lack of leadership and consistency on the defensive side of the ball for Tennessee. Consider that the below average SEC offenses of Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt combined to score nearly 120 points and accumulate almost 2000 yards of total offense in the team’s final three games is not just concerning, in reality, it is evidence of the Vols lack of defensive talent.
The Tennessee stop unit gave up over 625 yards of offense per game in their final trio of conference tests and despite being without their two best offensive players Nebraska figures to have plenty of success against the Vols “D”. Yes, the ‘Huskers are lacking their top notch scoring threats to injury but the final three opponents that Tennessee faced this season were no more dangerous than what the Huskers bring to the Nissan field on Friday afternoon.
Wunderdog
Louisville +3.5
CITRUS BOWL - LSU got a spark in mid-season with a coaching change, but finished 2-2 SU/ATS. That included a loss to Florida at home as a two-TD favorite, 16-10. The QB position has been below average all year with three players combining for 10 TDs and six picks. LSU has been a bust in Bowls the last five years (1-4 ATS), losing to Clemson and Notre Dame as favorites of -5.5 and -8.5. The Tigers are also 5-12 ATS after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. They face an electric Louisville offense behind QB Lamar Jackson (30 TDs, nine INTs), the Heisman Trophy winner, who ran for 1,538 yards. He is the only player in FBS history to throw for 30-plus touchdowns and rush for 20-plus TDs in the regular season. Louisville hasn't been an underdog all season until now and went 3-1 ATS last year under Bobby Petrino as a dog. The Cardinals are also 16-7 ATS following a straight-up loss and topped an SEC team in last year's Bowl (Texas A&M), 27-21.
Jim Feist
Michigan vs. Florida St.
Play: Florida St +7
Michigan only played 4 games away from home this season and went 2-2, even losing at Iowa as huge favorite. The Wolverines seemed poised to make their first appearance in the CFP until they dropped two of their last three games down the stretch, including a 30-27 double-overtime loss to No. 2 Ohio State. Florida State's defense led the nation with 47 sacks. DeMarcus Walker led the country with 15 sacks and anchors a talented Seminoles' defensive front that has the potential to wreak havoc on the Wolverines' offensive line, which struggled in the last three games of the season.
Bruce Marshall
Nets at Wizards
Pick: Over
Brooklyn likes to run and Washington will certainly oblige. Wiz has embraced Scott Brooks' uptempo preference to also go "over" 12-3 last 15. In first meeting, Washington rallied for a 118-113 victory behind PG John Wall's 25 points. Brooklyn has been covering a lot of numbers lately (8-4 L12), but Nets are yielding a league-worst 114 ppg, so "over:" worth a look even at an inflated "total" at Verizon Center.
Brett Atkins
Yes, Stanford ended the season with 3 straight Overs, but those Overs came against some very bad defenses - Rice, Cal, Oregon - and while North Carolina's defense is not the best in the land, it is a tad better than the teams I just listed.
For the season, the Cardinal were Under in 7 of their 12 games overall. I like them to hold Under in today's Sun Bowl against North Carolina, as the Stanford defense surely figures to be the dominant unit on the gridiron tonight - even against the accomplished Mitch Trubisky.
The Tar Heels for all of their firepower on offense were not an Over team this season, as the Heels ended the season with 3 straight Unders, and played Under the total in 8 of their 12 games on the year.
Granted, both teams have played some high-scoring bowl games the past 2 years, but I am going to look for this one to be a little less "offensive" than in previous bowls games for both sides, as North Carolina and Stanford keep this game in the 40's price range points-wise.
1* NORTH CAROLINA-STANFORD UNDER
Bob Valentino
My free play for today is on the Over in the Nebraska-Tennessee game.
We have a couple of teams with a combined 17 wins, and the favorite has gone over eight of 12 times this season. So while I think the Volunteers will dictate the tempo in this one, I'm not sure they cover since Nebraska has to respond offensively to stay in this one.
Tennessee averages 36.2 points per game, but away from home it also surrenders the same average. Plus, over their last three games, the Volunteers have given up 39.3 points per contest.
Relying on Tennessee's offensive prowess, but also its defensive deficiency, I'll play this one high.
5* Nebraska Tennessee Over
Eric Schroeder
I'm on a 17-8 run with complimentary releases, and look to improve with a free Pro Basketball side for today.
My free winner for tonight is on the Denver Nuggets, as I think they'll crush the Philadelphia 76ers.
It's Friday night, the Broncos are officially out of the playoffs and right now the Nuggets and Colorado Avalanche are all the town has to cheer for. I think the Nuggets will embrace the situation and rise to the occasion tonight in front of a rowdy crowd.
The Sixers are in after a 100-83 loss at Utah on Thursday, and now they have to play the second of back-to-back nights against a suddenly surging Nuggets team that is 5-2 since a 20-point loss in Dallas on Dec. 12.
With the Sixers are being cautious with Joel Embiid's minutes, I actually wouldn't be surprised to see him sit this one out. He missed 10 games this season, eight of which have been scheduled during back-to-back games.
Denver rolls here.
3* NUGGETS
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 24-13 run with free picks, as my complimentary winner is on the Golden State Warriors over the Dallas Mavericks.
My free play is on the two-time defending Western Conference champion Golden State Warriors, as they host the Dallas Mavericks.
With the Mavs owning a mark tied for the worst record in the West this season, and Golden State sitting atop the conference, I don't see this going well. Plus, Dallas just played in Los Angeles last night, beating the Lakers. To have to face the Warriors on the second of back-to-back nights is a tall task.
The Mavericks have lost on the second night on all six previous occasions this season, losing by an average of 14.5 points. A 21-point loss at Golden State in November also took place on the second of back-to-back nights. The well-rested Warriors haven't played since a 121-111 home win over the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday.
Lay the chalk.
5* WARRIORS
Red Dog Sports
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma St
Play: Under 168.5
Oklahoma State has played some high scoring games so far. West Virginia plays better defense and will try to slow thinks down even though they have played some uptempo games. Last year's meeting was in the 140's. This is the Big 12 conference opener for each one. I think it ends in the low 160's.