Brandon Lee
Timberwolves +1
While Minnesota hasn't been able to break through and put together a great run, they have been playing much better here over the last couple of weeks. The Timberwolves are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games, but are clearly still not getting any love at basically a pick'em at home against the Bucks. Milwaukee comes in off an impressive 119-94 win at Detroit, but are still just 5-8 away from home and just 4-6 in their last 10 overall. I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for the Bucks, who are playing their 3rd straight on the road, having to go from Washington to Detroit now to Minnesota, plus they have a big division road game at Chicago on deck tomorrow. Milwaukee is just 25-47 in their last 72 off a division road win and 9-19 ATS in their last 28 off a road game with a combined score of 205 or more.
Scott Rickenbach
Blackhawks vs. Hurricanes
Play: Hurricanes -111
Tough back to back spot for the Blackhawks who are off of a tight 3-2 win at Nashville last night. Chicago had previously lost 3 straight games and they are expected to start goalie Scott Darling tonight since this is a back to back. Darling hasn't started in a week and a half and he has struggled in 3 of his last 4 starts. Unlike Chicago, Carolina is rested and they are off of a loss so they will be fired up here. The Hurricanes lost a tight one at Pittsburgh Wednesday. The Hurricanes had previously won 3 straight and they haven't lost back to back games in 4 weeks. In other words, look for the Canes to respond as they hold the situational edges here. Also, the Hurricanes are 9-3 in goalie Cam Ward's 12 home starts this season and Carolina has defeated the Blackhawks in each of their last two meetings. Look for the Hurricanes to improve to 4-1 on Fridays this season while dropping Chicago to 3-6 on Fridays this season.
Andrew Lange
Arizona at California
Play: Under 129
Because of injuries and lack of depth, Arizona has been forced to slow down its tempo this season. Sean Miller even admitted that he's had his team walk the ball up the floor to essentially shorten the game and preserve his players. The Cats do get a boost with the return of Parker Jackson-Cartwright tonight but he'll be limited in terms of minutes and effectiveness. We have a pretty barometer of what to expect from Arizona's offense. The Wildcats faced Michigan State, Butler, Gonzaga and Texas A&M and netted between 62-67 points with all four games 68 possessions or lower. In only one of those games did Arizona top a point per possession. And note that none of those were "true" road games. Tonight's game is and you can make a strong argument California's defense is better than anyone Arizona has faced thus far. All but three of the Golden Bears' opponents this year have been held to below 0.90 ppp. San Diego State was the only team to top a point per possession and did so in large part because of a 31 trips to the free throw line. The Aztecs shot only 37%. And don't sleep on Arizona's defense either. Despite playing a fairly tough non-conference slate, no foe has hit the 70-point barrier. As these teams get healthier and more cohesive on the offensive end, I could see a higher scoring affair in the second meeting. But the current situation suggests a bloodbath in Berkeley tonight.
Wunderdog
Valparaiso @ Illinois Chicago
Pick: Under 152
Valparaiso has gone UNDER seven of its last 10 road games and both meetings last season stayed UNDER the posted total. The Crusaders are scoring 75.9 points per game while allowing 72.5 and a .425 opponent field goal percentage. Valpo beat Chicago State 80-61 on Wednesday holding the Cougars to just a .343 shooting percentage. Shane Hammink scored 22 points and Alec Peters, one of only two returning starters for the Crusaders, added 15 points and 14 rebounds. Illinois Chicago has gone UNDER two of its last three lined games with the other ending in overtime. The Flames beat Northern Arizona 75-65 on Dec. 20 with just two players scoring in double figures. Tai Odiase finished with 24 points and 11 rebounds and Dominique Matthews added 11 points. Illinois Chicago has gone UNDER 11 of its last 14 against teams with .600 or above winning percentages.
SPORTS WAGERS
CAROLINA -1½ +244 over Chicago
OT included. We discussed our -1½ puck philosophy a couple of weeks ago and picked up a win last night with Boston’s 4-2 victory over Boston with a takeback of +230. That was just one game but it goes much deeper than that. There were four games that went into OT last night so for anyone spotting a half puck with the favorite, they would have lost those bets no matter what. However, six favorites, Boston, Columbus, Minnesota, Rangers, Dallas and Edmonton all won by 2 or more. Boston, Edmonton, Rangers and Minnesota all added empty netters. Not one favorite won by a single goal in regulation time, which is not unusual. We did a study covering the span from when Patrick Roy set precedence in pulling goalies early and found very similar results throughout the years since. The point is, if you are to play a favorite spotting a half puck, the better play and the one that will reap much higher profits is spotting 1½-goals instead and that is the approach we’ll use from now on.
Chicago played last night in Nashville and got the win despite being outshot 38-23. That was a satisfying win and now this game is sandwiched between that bitter rival last night and another one up next in the St. Louis Blues. The Blue Notes are perhaps the Blackhawks biggest rivals. That game will be played outdoors at Busch Stadium in front of 50,000 or so in the first ever outdoor NHL game in St. Louis. The Blackhawks are not in kill mode right now but they will be against St. Louis and could easily be overlooking this opponent.
Even if the Blackhawks show up here, Carolina is capable of dominating any team in this league but there are more moving parts too. For one, the Blackhawks' cap restrictions prevented them from keeping some players and a few of those parts went to Carolina. Those players, which include the very talented Teuvo Teravainen will be jacked up for sure. Besides that, this game is a much bigger deal to Carolina than it is to Chicago. Finally, the ‘Canes are as fundamentally sound as any team in the league and then some. Carolina rarely gets outplayed and we can almost guarantee that they will win the shots on goal battle, the puck possession battle and the high quality scoring chances battle. Carolina is tops in the league in many key categories that relate to puck possession which includes being the top face-off team in the league. We love the situation for the ‘Canes and one has to love the payoff too.