Free Picks for Friday, November 10th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Red Dog Sports
Oglethorpe at The Citadel
Play: Over 182
The Citadel is coached by Duggar Baucom, who used to be at VMI, and known for high scores. They already played a 122-98 (220 points) with Coker and play Oglethorpe at 3pm Friday.
Early season games for The Citadel in recent years include games with 230, 209, 228, 193 and 237 points. They allowed 144 vs. Butler to open two years ago.
Oglethorpe did play a 106-89 (195) with Berry last year. This total is up at 5 Dimes. The Citadel is favored by 39 and should control the pace. Hopefully, we see a game with 190 points or more.
DAVE COKIN
EASTERN KENTUCKY VS. RICE
PLAY: EASTERN KENTUCKY -3
It’s entirely possible almost no team has had a worse off season thaN Rice. The Owls became the last domino in a process that began when VCU coach Will Wade left to take the job at LSU. That opened up a better job opportunity for Mike Rhoades. When Rhoades left Rice, star point guard Marcus Evans decided to leave with him. In the interim, other players have also departed and what was a team that had big hopes after last season is now effectively a shell of what they might have been.
Eastern Kentucky is under the radar, even in the OVC. The Colonels have had all kinds of injury issues two years running. The hope is that they remain healthier this time around. If so, this is a team that will make some noise in the Ohio Valley. The Colonels won’t be good enough to stay with the likely top three in the league but they could well be the best of the rest in the league.
Great job by the oddsmakers in tabbing the Colonels as the favorite tonight, but it’s not by enough to keep me away. I’ll spot the small spread with Eastern Kentucky.
Stephen Nover
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets
Play: Under 5½
These two teams met a month ago in Carolina and the score was 1-1 after regulation. Columbus ended up winning, 2-1, in overtime. I'm expecting to see a similar result in this rematch. The Under has cashed the past four times these teams have met.
Both teams rank among the top 11 in fewest goals allowed per game. Neither team is strong on the power play. Columbus ranks last in power-play goals and Carolina is 28th.
The goaltending is solid. The Blue Jackets' Sergei Bobrovsky won the Vezina Trophy as the best goalie in the NHL last season. He has a 2.11 goals against average in 14 lifetime games against the Hurricanes.
Carolina goalie Scott Darling is in excellent form stopping 53 of 55 shots during his last two games.
The Hurricanes have lost four of their last five games. The Blue Jackets have dropped their last three. The sense I get is these teams are going to play conservative here, not taking chances but waiting for the right opportunity.
Carolina's lone win in its last five games came on Tuesday when it defeated Florida, 3-1. The Panthers have the worst defense in the league. Yet the Hurricanes could only manage two goals against Florida until scoring an empty-net goal. The Hurricanes haven't scored more than three goals in eight of their last nine games.
Dave Essler
Yale vs Creighton
Play: Yale +8
Pissed it's costing extra juice when I could have had 8.5. There's no doubt Creighton will be a force as usual, especially at home. But, they lose Marcus Watson, and although he wasn't a huge minutes-eater, he shot 48% from behind the arc. They lose Cole Huff who was deadly from anywhere, but also was one of their better defenders. One reason I don't like laying points with Creighton too often is that they don't (usually) get to the line a ton which adds up over the course of 40 minutes. Yale typically defends the perimeter very well - and Yale with Mason and Oni may have one of the better backcourts in the nation, really, not just the Ivy League. Yale is not undersized, and is used to playing "bigger name teams" on the road. Just last year they played Washington, UVA, and Pitt on the road in the first nine days - so this should be no big deal. Now, last season we had a TON of these that were 1H winners and they succumbed in the 2H - so splitting these bets isn't the worst idea in the world. Also, there was a time you could take all the 20+ point dogs and win more than lose, but that hasn't been the case the last few years. Good teams have extended leads in the 2H rather than coast and leave the back door open, so there are a few chalky games I am considering - but as I said earlier in the forums, the first month-plus of CBB is a learning curve every year so if we can maintain our bankroll and come out with more knowledge, we'll be in great shape. It really NO different than any sport - it's nice to come out swinging and build, but it's not always the most advisable course, at least not for me.
Braxton Myles
Northern Arizona vs. Arizona
Play: Northern Arizona +35
There is no doubt that Arizona is going to be a force to be reckoned with this season returning 3 of their starters from last seasons monster of a team. Northern Arizona has 2 players back from their team last season that was less than impressive going on 9-23. However, a 35 point victory is a lot to ask for in the first game of the season even against a bad team. Arizona was averaging 77 PPG last season and would have to score over that and hold Northern Arizona to below their last season average of 69 PPG. I'm going all in on Northern Arizona in this game and let the off season rust for Arizona bring in the money.
Red Dog Sports
NC-Greensboro vs. Virginia
Play: Under 128
Virginia likes to focus on defense. They play a team that is a big underdog and should be able to win by 20 points. I think we see a 72-53 game that stays under.
Ray Monohan
Texas A&M vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -6½
The Mountaineers open as favorites at home on Friday night and have value at this number.
West Virginia is a handful for teams on any given night. The depth and ability to hit you with many different players in rotation is just so tough to stop.
On top of this, the Aggies will be without 2 key players here for suspension reasons. It's extremely tough to deal with a Bob Huggins squad, but when you're without your key PG, things are not going to be easy for them in this spot.
West Virginia is a legit contender this season. Look for them to start this season off on the right foot with a lopsided win.
Jimmy Boyd
Northern Arizona vs. Arizona
Play:Northern Arizona +34.5
Free pick on Northern Arizona + No question that No. 3 Arizona has the superior talent in Friday's season opener against Northern Arizona, but I think we are getting a great price here to back the Lumberjacks. While the Wildcats simply reload, they did lose 4 key players from last year's team, including NBA lottery pick Lauri Markkanen, whose 69 made 3-pointers were 25 more than the next best player. Arizona also without a key player in Rawle Alkins, who is dealing with a foot injury. Alkins was the Wildcats second best 3-point shooter behind Markkanen. I think it's asking a lot for the Wildcats to win here by more than this massive spread given the circumstances.
Brandon Shively
Texas A&M vs. West Virginia
Pick: West Virginia -6
Bob Huggins' team is hard enough to face for a team at full strength. Texas A&M is without their two best players due to suspension here. An undermanned Texas A&M team is highly unlikely to be able to handle this press. One of the suspended players is their starting point guard. West Virginia should win the battle on the boards and force a bunch of turnovers. Lay the reasonable number here.
Jim Feist
Bucks at Spurs
Pick: Over
The 4-6 Milwaukee Bucks play tonight at 7-4 San Antonio on national t.v. The Bucks are just 3-5-2 ATS on the season and 2-3 ATS on the road. San Antonio is 6-5 ATS on the year and 5-1 ATS at home. The Bucks have lost four straight games and are 0-3-1 ATS. They are playing their four in a row on the road and their fifth away in their last six. The Spurs play their fifth straight at home, going 3-1 both S/U and ATS. The Bucks defense is one of the worst in the league, allowing 108.7 ppg, while the Spurs allow just 100.6 ppg. Milwaukee has been a good over team lately, going 6-1 O/U their last seven games. The Spurs are 9-3 O/U their last 12 home games. In addition, seven of the last 10 in this series have gone OVER. Spurs should score plenty here against a poor Bucks defense.
LV Traders
Ul Lafayette at Mississippi
Pick: Mississippi
Mississippi quietly has one of the better backcourts in college basketball and will start the season off with a convincing win in Oxford. Louisiana will be somewhat improved and competitive in the SunBelt... that said, the Ragin' Cajuns don't play enough defense to run with the Rebels for 40 minutes.
Brandon Lee
Hornets vs. Celtics
Play: Hornets +3½
This line makes zero sense. Boston has won 10 straight and have gone 9-1 ATS during this stretch and yet are laying a short number here against a Hornets team that enters off 3 straight losses. I expect this to be one of the biggest public plays of the day and that has me jumping on the points with Charlotte in a game I feel that Vegas thinks they win outright given this line. Boston is going to be short-handed here as Horford is still out with a concussion and star rookie Jayson Tatum is doubtful with an ankle injury. Note that Kyrie is also banged up with a leg injury, but is expected to play. This just feels like a massive flat spot for the Celtics and we can bank on an all out effort here from Charlotte.
Mike Lundin
Miami vs. Utah
Play:Utah -3½
The Miami Heat are coming off a 126-115 win at Phoenix, but this matchup with the Utah Jazz will mark their fifth straight game on the road. I think this looks like a tough spot for the Heat at Salt Lake City Friday night, and we can note that they're 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points and 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
The Jazz must be desperate for a win after three straight losses (SU and ATS), and they're still a solid 5-2 ATS in their seven home games on the season. Utah has allowed an average of 116.6 points during its current slide, but I think the Jazz will step it up on both ends of the court in this contest.
Nelly
Washington at Stanford
Play: Washington -6
This looked like a matchup that might decide the Pac-12 North title but Washington State beat Stanford last week. The Cardinal switched quarterbacks last week with K.J. Costello given the start but ultimately his numbers are no better than Keller Chryst’s on the season. As a team Stanford was held below 200 total yards as Bryce Love was held in check with only 69 yards rushing with his per carry average halved. Washington features one of the very best run defenses in the NCAA allowing just 2.6 yards per rush as Stanford offense could have another difficult game as if the running game doesn’t materialize Stanford has little potential in a passing game with few big play threats. Washington hasn’t played a difficult schedule as arguably the three toughest games of the season will be the next three with this being the final road game of the season. Last season Washington won 44-6 in this matchup but the Huskies lost 31-14 two years ago at Stanford and Chris Petersen knows his team has no margin for error if they hope to stay in contention for a return to the College Football Playoff. Being able to stop the run will put Stanford in a tough position this week and the Cardinal no longer has a great defense to lean on. This unit is on pace to be the worst defense David Shaw has had in 10 years at Stanford, allowing 401 yards per game including 178 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry as the running back most likely to have a big day Friday night will be wearing purple and gold with Myles Gaskin more than capable of a big day having averaged 128 yards per game on 6.2 yards per carry in Pac-12 play.