Wunderdog
Alabama vs. Memphis
Pick: Alabama -4
Alabama is enjoying one of the top recruiting classes in the country and this figures to be Avery Johnson's best squad in his third year at the helm. John Petty was Mr. Basketball twice in Alabama and sophomore Daniel Giddens is a 6-10 forward who transferred from Ohio State and he'll play alongside Donta Hall for a formidable frontcourt. Collin Sexton is the top recruit, but he probably won't be eligible until Monday due to suspension. Memphis lost six of its last seven games last season and the Tigers lost several players from that team. The Tigers lost their last two contests by a combined 71 points to SMU and UCF. Tubby Smith has had to restock with junior college players, including Kareem Brewton, a 6-3 point guard and Kyvon Davenport, a 6-8 forward as the Tigers return only two starters. This game is also part of the Veterans Classic in Annapolis, Maryland.
Tommy Brunson
It took until the month of November, but the rebuilding Temple Owls certainly appear to have seen the light at the end of the tunnel, as the Owls are off a dominate 34-26 home win last Friday night over a capable Navy team. That win improves the Owls to 4-5 on the season and gets them that much closer to playing over the holidays in a bowl game.
Look for the Owls to even their mark with the road win and cover over Cincinnati this Friday night in the Queen City. Cincy is on a 2-10 home spread slide, and they have failed each of their last 5 at Nippert Stadium against FBS schools.
Temple has posted covers in 4 of their last 5 under first year coach Collins, and they do bring a 2-game series win and cover streak into this Friday night meeting. The Owls are also 3-1 both straight up and against the spread the last 4 series showdowns.
Based on those numbers, the small road impost the oddsmakers are asking Give a Hoot to cover looks like an early holiday gift.
Go with the Cherry and White on Friday night over the Bearcats.
5* TEMPLE
Eric Schroeder
I'm going to play this American Athletic Conference matchup under the posted number, as I don't trust either side. The Temple Owls have been far too inconsistent to trust them on the road, and the Cincinnati Bearcats are just a bad team overall, but one that comes in on a high after snapping a five-game skid last week.
Fact is, we're talking about the two worst offensive units in the AAC, and I believe they'll be lucky to tally 40 points, let alone 47 or 48.
Temple, which stayed under in six straight before going over the last two weeks, averages 22.3 points per game - ranking 11th out of 12 in the AAC. The 12th? That would be Cincinnati, with 20.6 points per contest.
On the other side of the ball, Temple is fourth in the conference in allowing 26.8 points per game, while the Bearcats are in the middle of the league with 30.9. But I'm not too worried about the defensive units, as they're going to look like Alabama and Georgia, based on how bad the offenses are.
Cincinnati - which stayed under for three straight to start the season, then went over in three straight and have stayed low in its last three - is averaging 18.4 points per game in its last five. It ranks second-to-last in the AAC in third-down conversion (38.1), and also in time of possession (27:12).
Don't even bother watching this one, it'll be boring. Just play it under the posted number.
3* Temple/Cincinnati Under
Jack Brayman
The line hadn't moved, and there was no real rumbling on this game, so I was set to play UNLV all week. I thought the Rebels were in the right spot.
Then I visited the M Resort last night, and was informed the squares and locals are loading up on UNLV, and the line would be down to 4 and even 3 1/2 by kickoff, because the sharps are taking BYU.
I'm going to play the Cougars here, as UNLV brings one of the worst defensive units to the field tonight, and one of the most lethargic second half teams in the country. This team has either given away leads, or been damn close to giving a game away in too many games to believe in them, anyway.
I understand the Cougars are having a down year, but they'll always have the better talent than UNLV, and tonight they're going to come into Sam Boyd Stadium and deflate all dreams of the Rebels going to a bowl game.
Las Vegas fans have the choice of attending the Golden Knights, Runnin' Rebel basketball or UNLV football tonight.
I'll probably bring a hoodie to T Mobile tonight, it gets cold watching hockey.
Play the Cougars.
1* BYU
Joey Juice
Boston is hot, no doubt, they have won 10 straight against a variety of opponents both credible and weak.
Keep in mind Horford is dealing with the concussion protocol, and Tatum left the game against the Lakers with a sore ankle so the Celtics are dealing with some injuries at the moment that are sure to slow down their point production in this one.
Charlotte is playing horrible. They have lost 3 in a row, and are just 1-5 on the road this season. The Hornets come into Beantown after losing in San Antonio, Minnesota and NY, where they simply disappeared against the Knicks in the fourth quarter with a double digit lead.
The numbers don't lie in this one for Charlotte. The under is 6-2 in the Hornets’ last 8 games playing on 2 days rest, 5-2 in their last 7 games following a ATS loss, and 5-2 in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
For Boston, its much of the same. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 Friday games, 6-1 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game, 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference teams, and 9-2 in their last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Given the fact that Celtics play 1980's style "in your face" defense, and Charlotte can't score on the road, we are going with the Under here.
3* CHARLOTTE-BOSTON UNDER
Mark Franco
Nets vs. Blazers
Play: Nets +9
Damian Lillard will try to bounce back from his worst offensive effort of the season when his Portland Trail Blazers continue a six-game homestand against the Brooklyn Nets on Friday. Lillard had a season-low 12 points while shooting 4-for-16 - including 0-for-5 from the 3-point line - in Tuesday's 98-97 loss to Memphis.
The Nets are 1-2 thus far on a five-game trip after falling 112-104 in Denver on Tuesday. Tyler Zeller scored a season-high 21 points off the bench as Brooklyn's starting five combined for just 40 points while shooting 38.5 percent.
Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Teddy Covers
Orlando at Phoenix
Play: Orlando -3½
Here’s the key quote, from Suns veteran big man Jared Dudley, after Phoenix lost their fourth straight game earlier in the week:
"We are going to have a problem with consistency throughout the year….Since Jay took over, we might have had one or one-and-a-half practices. We've had a lot of games, and there is only so much you can go over, so much film you can do. I think he's a done great job so far. I just think that we need to ride this stretch before next week beginning a couple practices and going over certain things that we need to go through on the defensive end."
The Suns have gotten a little bit better since Jay Triano took over for Earl Watson following their dismal start, at least from an effort standpoint. But from a defensive standpoint, the Suns remain a bottom five team. It’s the same story on offense, no surprise for a team that suspended, then traded their starting point guard, leaving D-League veteran (but undrafted NBA rookie) Mike James as the starter at the point. This is not a strong homecourt either, as clearly evidenced by the Suns home losses to the Nets, Heat and Lakers already.
There’s a lot to like about the 2017-18 Orlando Magic. With Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier, Frank Vogel’s squad has a legitimate ‘Big 3’; all of whom can score, pass and rebound at a high level. The supporting cast is stepping up, most notably wing Jonathan Simmons. And with starting point guard Elfrid Payton healthy again, coming off an 11 point, 11 assist effort in his first game back following an eight game absence, matchup edges for this home underdog are few and far between. We’ve already seen the Magic win SU and ATS on the highway at Memphis, New Orleans and Cleveland, primed to do it again at Talking Stick Arena tonight as they step down in class.
Chase Diamond
Pacers vs. Bulls
Play: Bulls +3
This game features the 5-7 Pacers at the 2-7 Bulls. Bulls come off 2 straight losses but better for them the Pacers have dropped 4 straight games and really are struggling out there. Bulls have been off for 3 days and are well rested as they are in game one of a back to back that sends them to San Antonio Saturday so a win tonight is very important since their next few games are against much better teams. Public is all over the road Pacers as 74% are backing them. I love the sharp money and the Bulls tonight at home plus the points.
Dave Price
Orlando at Phoenix
Play: Orlando -3½
The Orlando Magic have been a quiet surprise in the early going. They are off to a 7-4 start this season and are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NBA under second-year head coach Frank Vogel, who has a knack for getting the most out of the talent on hand. The Phoenix Suns are stuck in a rut and will be playing their 4th game in 6 days, while the Magic will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. The Suns are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, losing all 4 by 6 points or more and 3 by double-digits.
SPORTS WAGERS
CINCINNATI +126 over Temple
Both these teams enter off outright wins last week despite being 6½-point underdogs at the close of their respective markets. Temple upset Navy 34-26 on a Thursday night prime-time game, which was televised nationally on ESPN. Navy is one of the most recognized names in the American Athletic Conference that was a favored to unseat Temple as reigning and defending conference champion. On this night however, the Owls bared a resemblance to the AAC Champion it was in 2016, as it absolutely dominated Navy. Temple led by as much as 18 points in the fourth quarter before the Mids would generate a couple of garbage time TD’s in the remaining six minutes to make it look more respectable than it was. Temple had its way with Navy and in the process, restored market faith in them. Temple can still make a bowl game if it wins two of its final three contests. The schedule sets up for Temple to have a decent shot at doing so, as it has a 2-8 Tulsa team to round off the season and this Cincinnati outfit that is a shadow of its former self compared to years’ past. Sandwiched in between this contest and the Tulsa affair is the nation’s best Group of Five team, Central Florida. That’s one of the keys here, as this game for Temple is sandwiched between last week’s ESPN game against Navy and next week’s epic clash with the Knights at home in Philadelphia. We also love the low number that the oddsmakers hung on the Owls here to cover.
Because of one lousy victory, the Owls are now road chalk? They have four wins this year with the other three victories coming against Villanova, UMass and East Carolina. Those are theree of the worst Division I teams in the country. Incidentally, Villanova has dropped three straight to James Madison, Elon and Richmond respectively while being outscored 71-22 by that trio. Temple beat Villanova by a FG. UMass and East Carolina couldn’t beat half the basketball teams in the country in a game of football and Temple beat UMass by just eight points, 29-21.
Cincinnati, despite its weak 3-6 record, is clearly not a team to sleep on. The Bearcats pulled off an upset of their own last week when they upended Tulane in its own house on Saturday. However, the result went unnoticed because Tulane is a low-market team with just three wins this season. However, the week prior, the Bearcats hosted SMU and took the Mustangs to overtime and came up on the losing end of a heart-breaker. The Bearcats have also played Michigan and scored 14 points against THAT defense. While Temple was hanging 16 on Villanova, Cinci was hanging 14 on the Wolverines.
Temple’s offense has been running on adrenaline for two weeks now and especially so last week with the entire country watching. Don’t overreact like the rest of this market, as we’re suggesting that the the low hanging fruit on the Owls here is pure poison but it does provide us with a great opportunity to get behind the host in a game they have a better than 50% chance of winning outright in.
STANFORD +201 over Washington
As the Pac 12 continues to eat itself, all hopes of the conference returning to the College Football Playoff rests on the shoulders of its defending champion, the Washington Huskies. Given the fact UW stomped out Stanford in the last meeting between the two in Seattle in 2016, a recency bias is in play here too. The game wasn’t close at all, as the Huskies rolled the Cardinal 44-6. Add in the fact that UW sits ranked at #9 in the College Football Playoff rankings and its market appeal is even greater. You will now pay a premium to get behind the Huskies here, which is something we will continue to warn you about.
While Washington owns the most recent win in this conference series and a more attractive record compared to Stanford, strength of schedule has to be taken into consideration. When looking at non-conference schedules between the two combatants, the tale of the tape is startling. Stanford’s owns the second toughest non-conference strength of schedule in the Pac 12 compared to the Huskies, who sit dead last. One of the Cardinal’s losses was at San Diego State, a team that was at one point favored to represent the Group of Five in a New Year’s Six Bowl Game. Washington opened its season against a Rutgers team that failed to win a B1G conference game in 2016 and followed that up with a tune-up match against an FCS opponent when they hosted Montana. In the week thereafter, UW would pick away at Fresno State, a team that lost outright, as a 22-point home favorite two weeks ago when UNLV was without its starting quarterback.
When “going south” this season, Washington was spared a trip to the Coliseum to face off with the Men of Troy. Stanford wasn’t so fortunate. The Cardinal had to venture to the City of Angels when the Trojans were undefeated and sitting in the top-six in the polls. Instead, the Huskies drew Arizona State and as a 17½-point favorite, UW ended up losing outright (13-7) in Tempe. Stanford was also tasked with taking on an ever-formidable Utah on the road; Washington was given an easier out at home against UCLA. This contest will serve as a litmus test in differentiating teams that play quality opponents as opposed to those that feast on cupcakes. Stanford is the more battle-tested of the two, which figures to play the biggest role in the outcome of this affair if the ball bounces equally. Give us the host outright.
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida/BUFFALO Over 5½
OT Included. The Panthers have the fewest wins in the East (4) and the second fewest wins in the entire league behind Arizona but it’s not because of a lack of scoring. Buffalo has just five wins. The problem with both these teams is not a lack of talent but a lack of quality goaltending. Roberto Luongo, James Reimer, Robin Lehner and Chad Johnson are all poor options. Seriously, there is not a crystal ball in the world that can predict when any of the above-mentioned four stiffs will have a good or bad game so we’re not going to make it a concern. Lehner and Luongo are both confirmed here and chances are one or both will have another bad game.
Both teams are near the bottom of Corsi +/-. Both teams are near the bottom in goals allowed. Florida is averaging a healthy 3.43 goals per game thus far in 2017-18 (the league average is 3.07) but the Panthers rank dead-last in goals against per game. Some might say new head coach Bob Boughner’s high-risk, high-reward style is the culprit. Not only is it a new system, it tends to bank on his team having the talent and skillset to pull it off on a nightly basis. People who watched him coach in Windsor will tell you just that. The Pittsburgh Penguins play a similar style but have proven they have the horses to do so successfully and they have a goaltender that has bailed them out several times. The Panthers have no such luxury.
We’re seeing more games this year with a total of 6 than we’ve seen in a very long time so the cat is out of the bag so to speak. However, it’s not out for the bag for this one and we can almost assure you that this game will feature a boatload of high quality scoring chances against two weak goaltenders. We expect this one to soar over this very beatable number.
Boston +118 over TORONTO
OT included. Anyone that bet on the Wild to beat Toronto on Wednesday night suffered through what hockey bettors frustratingly suffer through almost on a nightly basis. That would be betting on the right team but ending up on the losing side of a great value bet. Minnesota held the Maple Leafs to 19 shots on net while firing away 37 and lost 4-2. The Wild dominated the Leafs for long stretches throughout but ran into a hot Frederik Andersen. The Maple Leafs have scored eight goals on 44 shots over their past two games and was even outshot by the Golden Knights the game prior. Toronto has the third worst xGA average in the NHL ahead of only the Rangers and Arizona. Toronto’s defense is a mess right now and they are very simply not going to continue to bury four or five pucks a game to mask that deficiency. Furthermore, Andersen may have been hot last game but he’s hit and miss like a lot of goalies. His .896 save percentage is one of the worst among quality goaltenders. He’s allowed more soft goals than most and cannot be trusted. Andersen and the Leafs have allowed five goals or more in seven of 17 games this season.
This might not be a good matchup for the Leafs, as Boston ranks 1st in the NHL in Corsi against. The Bruins have dropped four of their last six but have only been outshot once over that span. The Bruins are going to start reeling off some victories because they have the right formula working to do so. They stay out of the box (two minor penalties or less in three straight and in four of six) and they’re starting to have a possession edge in every game too. It has taken a bit of time for the B’s to gel but it’s slowly coming together. Lastly, the general consensus is that the Tuukka Rask is worth more in goal than tonight’s confirmed starter, Anton Khudobin but nothing could be further from the truth. In five games, Khudobin has a save percentage of .936. That ranks 4th in the league while Rask’s save % ranks 35th at .898. Expected save % favors Khudobin by an almost equally wide margin. Khudobin has a 3-0-1 record and is another #1 goaltender that is getting #2 playing time and it’s another edge among others that we can try and take advantage of here.
Harry Bondi
TEMPLE (-2.5) over Cincinnati
Temple has very quietly shown great improvement over the course of the last month. After failing to cover the first four games of the season under rookie head coach Geoff Collins, the Owls have now covered four of their last five and are thinking about a bowl bid. They have also now covered 18 of their last 23 games against conference foes, while the downtrodden Bearcats have lost five of their last six games overall and have covered just five of their last 17 home games. The visitor in this series is 6-1 ATS the last seven years, so we’ll follow that trend and lay the short number on the road.
Ben Burns
Clippers vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -5.5
The Thunder are 4-7 and just haven’t put it together yet with their shiny new Big Three of Westbrook, Anthony and George. They run more isolation on offense than any team in the league and they will be playing the second game of a back-to-back set after losing last night in Denver. But the ISO should be more effective tonight considering that the Clippers are a banged-up bunch. Top backcourt defender Patrick Beverley is out, as is Milos Teodosic – leaving the Clips starvation-thin at the guard. That should allow Westbrook (held to just 13 last night) to do pretty much whatever he wants and that makes this spread very doable for OKC.
Dr Bob
Temple @ Cincinnati
Temple has had a solid defense all season but the Owls struggled offensively until Frank Nutile took over as the starting quarterback two games ago. Nutile nearly led an update at Army (lost 28-31 in overtime) and he did lead the Owls to a 34-26 upset win over Navy last week. Nutile’s 66% completion rate and +1.2 yards per pass play rating (8.3 yppp against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average quarterback) is a huge improvement over former starter Logan Marchi, who averaged just 6.2 yppp against teams that would allow 7.2 yppp). Temple’s offensive improvement is reflected a bit in the line but I still lean with the Owls here and the over appears to have some value if Nutile continues to play at the level he has played.
Washington @ Stanford
I wish I had a recommendation for you in this big Pac-12 North showdown but I don’t. My math model favors Washington by 6 points with a total of 48.5 points after adjusting for the improvement in Stanford’s pass attack with K.J. Costello under center and adjusting the Cardinal rushing numbers down a bit by using Bryce Love’s 8.4 career yards per rush average (2461 yards on 292 runs) rather than his ridiculous 9.6 ypr average this season. Love was not 100% against Washington State and he should be healthier tonight but I still project Stanford’s rushing attack to average only 5.1 yards per rushing play (Love at just over 6 ypr) against a very good Washington defense. I’ll be watching this game but I won’t be betting on it.
BYU @ UNLV
UNLV is sticking with senior Johnny Stanton at quarterback after he led them to wins over Fresno and Hawaii the last two weeks while freshman starter Armani Rogers was sidelined (although Rogers did play a bit against Hawaii). Stanton is not nearly the runner that Rogers is but UNLV passing numbers should be better given Stanton’s better accuracy numbers. The Rebels will also run less and throw more with Stanton behind center, which is good for this match up against a BYU defense that is really, really good defending the run (0.7 yprp better than average) and really bad defending the pass (1.0 yppp worse than average).
BYU’s offense should be a boost with Beau Hoge taking over for injured starter Tanner Mangum, as Hoge has shown the ability to throw the ball down the field (13.6 yards per completion on 29 career completions) while the other BYU quarterbacks have averaged just 10.6 ypc. I’ll assume Hoge’s YPC numbers are mostly due to variance but he has also faced tougher defensive teams this season (Wisconsin, Utah State, and Fresno) and overall I project a boost of 0.5 yards per pass play for the Cougars even after adjusting for variance (it would have been a +1.4 yppp increase without that adjustment). My math favors UNLV by 3 ½ points after making the adjustments for tonight’s quarterbacks and I’ll lean with the Rebels to get win number 5 at home against a BYU team that has just 1 victory all season against an FBS team and that was against a pathetic San Jose State team that is 0-9 against FBS teams.
OC Dooley
UCLA -9
At most offshore locations UCLA opened as a 7 point favorite so the RISE in the spot towards UCLA to me speaks volumes when considering the negativity that the Bruins are currently deadling with. UCLA hoops was supposed to give the school a fresh break from the football teams continual struggled but 3 players (including LiAngelo from the famous Ball family) will NOT play due to a shotlifting charge that may keep all three in the country of China for an indefinite period. To add insult to injury UCLA begins a new campaign WITHOUT 5 of their top 7 scorers-and-rebounders from last season. On a smaller scale the reason for the offshore line movement has to do with Georgia Tech's NUMBER ONE SCORING OPTION Josh Okogie along with another player have been SUSPENDED indefinitely for accepting improper benefits. This late night ESPN telecast reflects the current state of college basketball which is negative following the firing of legendary coach Rick Pitino along with FBI getting involved with improper recruiting. But for wagering purposes I am following a rather stunning spike in tonight's line