Free Picks and Premium Friday, November 11th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Raphael Esparza
Boston College / Florida St Under 48.5
Friday night in Doak Campbell Stadium we should see a low-scoring game and defense will be the key for both teams. Last two meetings between these two teams both went UNDER the total and last year the FSU Seminoles won 14-0. Boston College has been an UNDER team as of late, cashing 4 out 6 under games and Florida St at home plays their best defense. In early October Florida St beat Wake Forest at home 17-6, and it wouldn't shock me to see the same type of game Friday night. Florida St is 1-9 O/U in their last 10 games in November and the Seminoles are 1-4 O/U in their last 5 conference games.
Robert Ferringo
Drake (-7) over South Dakota
As for this play, I know it is a bit obscure. But I think that this is a chance to take advantage of a bit of a mismatch. South Dakota has to replace all five starters from last season's 14-18 squad. This is a program that's only been in Division I for a handful of years and they don't just reload. Last year they lost to Wright State (by eight) and Northern Illinois (by seven) in their first two games, and it should be even rougher for them now with a lot of freshmen and sophomores getting their first real action on the road. Drake has nowhere to go but up. They won just seven games last year, but they have four starters back, including leading scorer Reed Timmer (16.8 PPG) and seven-footer Jacob Enevold Jensen. Drake went 4-1 last year against teams rated No. 275 or worse, and I think that they will be focused and ready to get off to a positive start.
Jim Feist
Pistons at Spurs
Pick: Under
Both teams have good coaches who demand tough defense. Detroit is on a 5-2 run under the total and the Under is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. San Antonio PG Tony Parker (knee) might sit out for the fourth straight game. San Antonio is 28-13-1 under the total following a spread loss, plus the Under is 9-2 in the Spurs last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Scott Rickenbach
Pistons vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -8
ou can bet (literally!) that coach Gregg Popovich has his Spurs ready for tonight's game. After poor defense has played a key role in 3 straight home losses for San Antonio, the team has caught an earful leading into this game with Detroit. The Pistons will be the ideal "punching bag" for the Spurs to let out their frustrations as Detroit is already 0-4 SU and ATS on the road this season. San Antonio won both games with Detroit last season by double digits but did suffer a home loss to the Pistons the prior season. That also helps ensure the proper focus from the Spurs in this one. Danny Green made his season debut for the Spurs Wednesday against the Rockets and he'll be even stronger in his 2nd game back tonight. While San Antonio is getting healthier, the Pistons are definitely still hurting with the absence of PG Reggie Jackson (18.8 ppg, 6.2 apg last season). Detroit has been held to less than 37% from the field in each of their last two games and are now facing a Spurs defense that coach Pop has fired up to the extreme to the point of "play D or ride the pine". This has the makings of a huge blowout as the Spurs have lost 3 straight home games for only the 8th time in the 20 YEARS that Popovich has been the head coach in SA.
Wunderdog
Georgia @ Clemson
Pick: Clemson -4.5
Clemson is loaded with talent, with a slew of big men transferring in to join All-ACC forward Jaron Blossomgame (18.7 points per game, 6.7 rebounds per game). He turned down a likely NBA Draft selection to return for his senior season, and he was the #3 scorer in the ACC last year. The Tigers defeated three ranked opponents in 2015-16 (Louisville, Duke and Miami), the most victories over ranked opposition in school history. They are in revenge mode at home against a Georgia squad that embarrassed them last season. The Bulldogs have to replace their starting backcourt and the home team is 4-0 ATS when these teams collide.
Brandon Powell
La Salle vs. Temple
Play: La Salle -1½
Huge line movement here in favor of La Salle. Temple lost 3 of their top 4 scorers from last season and the teams starting point guard is iffy for this matchup tonight. Look for La Salle to start this season off right. Led by Jordan Price who averaged 19 points, the Explorer will also be helped by 3 transfers who all had starting experience at their previous schools.
Jimmy Boyd
Pistons vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -9
I look for a pissed off Spurs team to take the floor tonight against the Pistons. San Antonio comes in off back-to-back losses and have dropped 3 of their last 4. All at home as a favorite of 4.5 or more points. This team is too talented and too well coached to continue to lose on their home floor. I believe the Pistons are the perfect opponent for them to get back on track.
Detroit has yet to win on the road this season (0-4) and haven't really been competitive in any of their 4 road games. They lost by 18 at Toronto, 8 at Brooklyn, 32 at LAC and 7 last time out at Phoenix.
San Antonio's last game was a heartbreaking 99-101 defeat to the Rockets, which sets them up in a very favorable spot. The Spurs are 10-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons following a close loss by 3 points or less and have won in this spot by an average of 15.3 ppg.
Jack Jones
Sacramento at Portland
Play: Portland -6.5
The Portland Trail Blazers should bring their best effort to the court tonight after a blowout loss to the Los Angeles Clippers last time out. That was a tough spot for them since they were playing the second of a back-to-back after beating Phoenix 124-121 at home the night before. But now they have had a day off to regroup.
The same cannot be said for the Kings, who lost 91-101 at home to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. Now the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. It will also be their 11th game in 17 days to open the season as the schedule makers have done them no favors whatsoever.
The Blazers have clearly had the Kings' number in recent meetings. They have won six straight in this series while winning four times by at least eight points. That includes three straight victories over 8-plus points dating back to last season. The Blazers have won six straight home meetings with the Kings as well with five of those coming by double-digits.
Sacramento is 36-68 ATS in its last 104 when playing its 5th game in 7 days. The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. The Blazers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Brett Atkins
Friday's free play release will be backing the Bruins of UCLA as the heavy favorite over the Tigers of Pacific from Westwood.
The seat is "hot" for UCLA coach Steve Alford, as his Bruins faltered last season at 15-17. Look for a quick turnaround this season for the Uclans, and tonight's opener against a Tigers team with not much offensive firepower is just the right opponent to visit Pauley tonight.
The Bruins did not have anybody leave for the NBA last season, so back in uniform are Lonzo Ball and T.J. Leaf. Throw in big man Thomas Walsh in the paint, and coaches son Bryce Alford sniping from behind the arc, and this one has the makings of an opening night can of whip ass being opened on Pacific and their first-year coach Damon Stoudarmire!
Stoudamire did import a pair of transfers in Miles Reynolds from Saint Louis, and TySean Powell from Duquesne, but they must sit this season.
There just isn't much on this roster to suggest the Tigers have much bite tonight, even plus this many points.
Pacific is just 2-9-1 against the spread their last dozen versus the Pac 12, and after tonight that mark drops to 2-10-1.
UCLA big.
5* UCLA
Brad Wilton
Back end of a home-and-home between the Pacers and the Sixers, and even though Philly covered as the double-digit underdog on Wednesday, and even though the Pacers are 0-4 both straight up and against the spread on the road this season, I will back Indiana to once again keep Philadelphia winless.
With Wednesday's overtime win, the Pacers have now won 6 straight in the series, and are 5-1 against the spread in those 6. Indiana also stands at 16-7-2 against the spread the last 25 meetings in the City of Brotherly Love.
76ers stay winless for the new season, as the Pacers complete the sweep, and cover the smaller impost.
2* INDIANA
Bob Valentino
Again, I've won 21 of the last 38. My $10 Bettors have made more than $4,000 the last five weeks. That's not a bad ROI. Now I'm ready to put that money to work.
On the heels of my free winner on the Utah Utes last night, I'm coming back with another free winner, this time in the NBA. I love the Indiana Pacers to get it done against the Philadelphia 76ers, as this will be too tough a chore for the home team.
The Pacers are looking to carry over a momentous offensive performance on Wednesday, and bring it to Philly, where they're also hoping to come away with their first road win.
Indiana's offense has looked fantastic with the addition of Jeff Teague, who arrived this summer from Atlanta. Teague scored 30 points on 10-of-16 shooting and added nine assists two nights back, and I think will be able to score at free will tonight.
The 76ers have lost 44 straight games in the months of October and November, and that won't change anytime soon.
2* PACERS
BRANDON LEE
Wizards +7
I like the value here with the Wizards catching 7-points at home against the Cavs. Oddsmakers have made a point to set the bar high on Cleveland, knowing the public will back them no matter what. It's worked, as the Cavs have failed to cover in 5 straight. I believe we are getting some extra value here with Washington, due to their slow start, but this is a talented team and fresh off a 118-93 blowout win at home over the Celtics. I expect an all out effort here from the Wizards against the defending champs and it wouldn't come as a huge surprise if they won this game outright.
MATT FARGO
Knicks vs. Celtics
Play: Celtics -5½
Boston started the season 3-1 but has since dropped three games in a row including a pair of recent blowout losses against Denver and Washington. The Celtics are expected to give Cleveland a run in the Eastern Conference and while they are not playing like it, that should turn around quickly and this is a good spot to start. The Knicks opened flat against Brooklyn but broke the game open in the fourth quarter to go on to win by 14 points. They now have the same record as Boston at 3-4 but should not be lumped into the same group. New York is 1-2 on the road after going 14-27 on the highway a season ago. Based on the last two games, the Celtics cannot take anything for granted and there were some comments made by players that they need more effort and heart and we should definitely see that tonight as they head back home. Boston has won six of the last seven meetings in this series and it is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games while the Knicks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win including 0-2 ATS this season. Additionally, we play against teams that are allowing 10 or more ppg on the season going up against an opponent after allowing 110 points or more two straight games. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last five seasons.
DAVE PRICE
Charlotte Hornets -2.5
The Key: The Charlotte Hornets continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as only 2.5-point favorites over the Toronto Raptors tonight at home. The Hornets are 6-1 this season with their only loss coming to the Celtics on what was the 2nd of a back-to-back. Not only are the Hornets winning, they are dominating by outscoring opponents by 8.4 points per game on average this season. The Toronto Raptors are in a bit of a letdown spot here off a big win at Oklahoma City on Wednesday. Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 4-0 straight up in the last four meetings. The Raptors are expected to be without starting center Jonas Valanciunas, who is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Toronto is 7-20 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Raptors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. The Hornets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Raptors are 7-20 ATS in the last 27 meetings, including 1-5 ATS in the last 6 road meetings.