Free Picks for Friday, November 17th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
NORTHERN ARIZONA AT ARIZONA STATE
PLAY: ARIZONA STATE -23.5
Northern Arizona has one chance to stay in this game at Tempe against Arizona State. The Sun Devils could come out flat off a great win against San Diego State and take the Lumberjacks for granted.
But even if that’s the case, there’s every chance ASU runs away with the game regardless. The shorter shot clock is an upset eliminator of sorts. The weaker teams cannot milk possessions as they have to try and get something up relatively quickly and they’re generally just not good enough to do so.
The belief among many who follow college basketball was that the 30-second shot clock would be a benefit to big favorites, particularly those who like playing up tempo. There simply are not many options for the less entries to keep pace over 40 minutes. Consequently, we’re seeing some really lopsided results in the mismatches and I don’t consider this to be any kind of fluke.
Arizona State loves to run and I don’t see what NAU is going to be able to do as far as slowing things down are concerned. It’s always possible ASU could have an off night shooting, or I suppose the underdog Lumberjacks could outwork the overconfident favorites. But those are variables that fall into the strictly a guess category.
What’s not a guess is that on paper this is a mismatch. Northern Arizona is 0-2 out of the gate. The lopsided loss to Arizona was expected. But the Lumberjacks also lost to Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University on Monday. I have to confess I had never heard of this university. I sense that the typical Embry-Riddle student is probably really intelligent and a great bet to have an immensely successful career. Just not in basketball.
I don’t think the number on this game is high enough and expect the Sun Devils to win by something along the lines of 30 points. I laid the -23.5 with Arizona State.
Ray Monohan
UNLV vs. New Mexico
Play: Over 56
These two defenses are such a struggle, making this Over worth a move here on Friday.
UNLV is giving up 32.3 points per game as this defense simply cannot stop ranks 116th in the NCAA in total yards against.
On the other side of things, New Mexico is just as bad. They are giving up 30.9 points against and are 96th against the pass.
These two have started to open the playbook some too over the pass couple games. With both having poor seasons, things are starting to get more loose as the season winds down. That bodes well for this Over as they should take plenty of chances deep down field for us.
Some trends to note. Over is 6-1 in Rebels last 7 Friday games. Over is 7-1 in Lobos last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
This number is too low given how bad these defenses are.
Matt Josephs
Northeastern vs. Stanford
Play: Northeastern +8½
The Huskies have an early afternoon game against Stanford on Friday. Northeastern is getting some balanced scoring from five different players who average nine points or more. They are taking on a Cardinal team that lost to Eastern Washington last time out and are dealing with injury issues. Senior Guard Dorian Pickens and sophomore forward Kodye Pugh are out with Marcus Sheffield dealing with ailments. Stanford has North Carolina on deck so focus could be an issue although they are coming off a loss. They have covered just nine of their last 25 as a favorite. I think the road team is a live dog in this one.
Ben Burns
Pelicans vs. Nuggets
Play: Nuggets -4½
The Nuggets’ stinker at Portland on Monday night notwithstanding, there are a lot of positive signs for Denver heading into this game. The Nuggets are rested, they’ve had time to work out issues that cropped up Monday and they hope to be a deeper team with the expected return of Gary Harris to the starting lineup. Harris enables Will Barton to return to the bench and add depth. And with Jokic and Millsap, Denver also has the size to deal with New Orleans’ Davis/Cousins two-headed monster in the paint. Toss in that Denver has been tough at home of late (5-1 at the Pepsi Center in November, including wins over Toronto and Oklahoma City) and the building blocks are in place for a cover tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
Los Angeles vs. Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -6.5
Free pick on Cavs - As bad as Cleveland has played early, they have started to turn the corner. The Cavs have won 3 straight, all on the road and are 5-2 in their last 7. While Cleveland is trending in the right direction, the Clippers are on a free fall right now. LA has lost 6 straight and are just 1-8 in their last 9. The Clippers struggles can be pinpointed to the injuries of 3 starters, most notably point guard Patrick Beverley and forward Danilo Gallinari, their two biggest free agent signings. Without Beverly setting the tone defensively on the opposing team's point guard, the Clippers defense has been able to stop anyone. LA has allowed 100+ points in 6 straight. That really puts them behind the 8-ball here against a dynamic Cavs offense that despite all their struggles is averaging 110.1 ppg and 113.4 ppg over their last 5. I just don't see LA being able to keep pace on the road. It's also worth noting that there's something about playing in front of the big crowds (home or away) on Friday that have brought out the best in Cleveland, as the Cavs are 15-4 ATS on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
Jim Feist
Suns at Lakers
Pick: Over
Late game on the Friday schedule has the 5-10 Suns playing in LA against the 6-9 Lakers. Phoenix hits the road after a five game home stand which saw the club go 1-4 both S/U and ATS. The Lakers returned home last game after a four game road trip, only to lose to the Sixers, 115-109. The Suns defense has allowed 115.1 ppg this season compared to just 106.5 for the Lakers. The Suns are 6-1 O/U in their last 7 against a team with a losing straight up record. The Lkaers are 5-1 O/U their last six vs a team with a losing record. But it's against each other that the over pops. These teams are 6-1 O/U their last seven meetings and 19-9 O/U their last 28 meetings in LA.
Doc's Sports
Detroit vs. Indiana
Play: Detroit +1.5
This Pistons team is flying up our power rankings and we think this squad is legit. They are 10-3 SU this season and they have been a covering machine on the road with a 4-1 ATS record away from home. As long as they come out of their game Wednesday at Milwaukee healthy we think that they are in great shape for a big road win here on Friday night. These teams just played in Detroit recently and it was a very dominating performance by the Pistons who won by 17. We think they could easily score a double-digit win here as the "revenge" angle is way overrated in NBA handicapping, especially for a team like Indiana that is one of the more lousy teams in the NBA this season. They are just trying to take the season game by game and if they have revenge on their minds then they are going to have a lot of enemies this season because they won't win too many games. We think the Pistons will be undervalued here on the road and we expect them to continue their strong play here on Friday.
Robert Ferringo
Northern Kentucky at James Madison
Play: Northern Kentucky
I think that this game is going to be a blowout. James Madison is a train wreck of a program. Lou Rowe has been less than inspiring in his young tenure leading the Dukes. And after finally clearing the decks and dumping most of the guys from last year's team he has started his rebuilding effort in earnest. Northern Kentucky is a team that is much further along. They won 24 games last year and they have several guys that can put the ball in the hole. The inside-out duo of Drew McDonald and Lavone Holland is better than anything that Madison can counter with. And their two wins to start the season weren't even close, including a blowout win over East Tennessee State. This game is being played on a neutral site in Nassau. And I think that Northern Kentucky's experience is going to pay dividends for them here.
Jim Mack
UNLV at New Mexico
Play: UNLV +2.5
For UNLV to reach a bowl game in 2017, it needs wins at New Mexico and Nevada. For a team that has won just 10 of its L63 road games, that would certainly seem to be a daunting task. However, head coach Tony Sanchez has put an emphasis on reaching that goal and wins in two of the L3 games have made it still possible. Friday’s contest at New Mexico would have been much tougher in recent years, as the Lobos won’t be playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2014 and have gone in the tank recently, losing five straight games. With the motivation they figure to be lacking in this game, the Lobos are a very sketchy favorite. They’ve also been on the bad end of turnover luck of late, and that figures to play against them on Friday night: Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 - with a turnover margin of -1.5 /game or worse on the season, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Record of this system is 48-13 in its L61, nearly 80%. Let’s go with UNLV as the dog here to keep its bowl hopes alive.
ASA
New Mexico -2.5 over UNLV
The Rebels have allowed 265 rushing yards or more in 4 of their last 6 games. Against the option attack of Air Force, UNLV allowed over 400 yards rushing. That doesn’t bode well for the Rebels defense in terms of being able to get off the field against the ground-heavy attack of the Lobos here. New Mexico has averaged 276 rushing yards per game (and 6.2 yards per carry) in their home games this season. On a 5-game losing streak, the Lobos are favored here with good reason. We look for New Mexico to take advantage of a Rebels team allowing 453 yards per game on the road this season. UNLV, since the start of the 2014 season, is 0-5 SU and ATS in games where the spread ranges anywhere from a 3 point dog to a 3 point fave and that is the case again here. Once again, the Rebels fall short as the Lobos improve on marks that have seen them go 13-7 SU their last 20 home games and 9-3 SU in their last 12 games versus teams with a losing record. Bet New Mexico in this late evening Friday match-up.
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is in the same game I'm releasing the side. I love the Over in tonight's Mountain West Conference showdown between the UNLV Rebels and New Mexico Lobos.
I won't get into this too much, as I don't want to tip my hand as to what side I'm playing, but what I can tell you is that I do not trust either defense in this game.
New Mexico has the much better stop unit, but it also falters against the pass. UNLV falters all around, allowing 461.1 yards per game, which ranks 116th out of 129 teams.
These two are going to put on a show on Branch Field at University Stadium, with a pair of rushing games that rank in the top 22 in the nation. New Mexico (22nd) gains 226 yards per game, while UNLV (19th) rumbles for 239 ypg.
And normally that's a good sign to expect a low-scoring game, as it promotes a running clock and keeps the ball out of the other team's hands. But they also have big-play running backs, and no lead will be safe.
Look for both to hit the 30s, the total to hit the 60s, and my 30 Dime Side to pair nicely with this total going over.
5* UNLV/New Mexico Over
Joey Juice
The Knicks head to Toronto after a brilliant homestad and the question is can they bring the fire from Madison Square Garden on the road with them to Canada?
Let's be honest we didn't even think we would be speaking of the Knicks as a team that could be competitive, let alone win at this point and juncture of their rebuilding phase, but here they are in a battle for second place with none other than the team they're playing tonight, the Toronto Raptors.
I don't think the Knicks are ready to beat the Raptors in Toronto but I do feel they will easily cover the spread as they bring confidence from their recent homestand and are not going to get blown out.
A look inside the numbers would support that theory:
Knicks play well with an extra day to prepare, they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 day of rest. In fact the Knicks are playing well against the number right now in general as they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Can't say the same for the Raptors who are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Knicks cover.
4* NEW YORK
Tommy Brunson
My Friday free play release is the Clippers plus the points at the Cavaliers.
Cleveland is finally starting to string together some consistent winning - they return home after winning all 3 on the road their last 3 times out! - but with those wins comes the inflated lines they will be asked to cover.
Los Angeles is looking to end a streak of 6 straight losses both straight up and against the spread.
Perhaps the streak hits 7 in a row straight up, but I am going to look for the desperate Clips to at least be close when the whip comes down.
Los Angeles won both series meetings a season ago, look for them to at least be in the "ball park" tonight.
2* L.A. CLIPPERS
Chris Jordan
My free play for Friday night will be on the Over in the Pacific Division showdown between the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers, as the two old school rivals take the court at Staples Center.
Though neither rank in the top 10 of points per game, but they do allow a lot of points. Phoenix ranks dead last in allowing 116.8 points per game, while the Lakers are giving up an average of 106.5 points per contest.
Now the get together for a Friday night clash in L.A., and no matter how good or bad the Lakers are, there is no bigger party in the NBA than a Friday in Los Angeles.
The Suns have gone over in four of five on the road, while the Lakers have soared in five of six against losing teams. Most importantly, these two have gone high in six of the last seven meetings.
Play this one high.
4* Suns/Lakers Over