Free Picks for Friday, November 18th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Robert Ferringo
New Mexico (-9) over New Mexico State
It's always tough to lay this many points in a rivalry game. But this one looks like a mismatch to me. This might be a better team than the Lobos brought into this game last year. Now that Cullen Neal has transferred there's some better karma on the court and the Lobos looked sharp in their first two wins. Star guard Elijah Brown and forward Tim Williams give UNM the two best players on the court in this one. New Mexico has a stellar home-court advantage in The Pit and a lot of size and experience to back it up. New Mexico State is definitely not better than they were last year. Without Pascal Siakam and Tanveer Bhular they are missing two of their best players and two of the biggest parts of their identity. New Mexico beat the Aggies by 18 at home last year and won by nine on the road. I think they will take this one by at least double-digits and I have UNM winning by 13.
Wunderdog
UNLV @ Boise State
Pick: Under 66
The Boise State Broncos continue to win, but doing so in a different fashion than they have in the past. The oddsmakers seem to be overlooking the changes in this team that is under new leadership. The Broncos average fewer points than they have in the last four years. While the offense has not been as epic, they are playing to much higher totals. They played to an average total of 61 going back four years, 58 going back three years, 56 last season, and 62.1 this year. That is despite the fact that their games have averaged fewer points this year than any of those previous four years. UNLV runs the ball 45 times a game, so the clock will be on the move, further hampering the point total in this contest. The Rebels are above average in stopping the run, holding opponents that average 4.9 yards a carry to 4.5.
DAVE COKIN
IDAHO AT ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK
PLAY: LITTLE ROCK -10.5
There’s always some trepidation laying doubles when a game figures to be somewhat low scoring. That’s the case tonight as UALR plays host to Idaho. The Vandals will play their pack line defense and will look to maintain a slow tempo, and it’s not like I expect the Trojans to be running and gunning. Nevertheless, I’m willing to give the points and fade Idaho in spots like this until the team shows an ability to put the ball in the basket on a more frequent basis.
Little Rock comes into the new season with good reason to optimistic following last season’s great success. The Trojans ended up with 30 wins, including the double overtime shocker over Purdue in the NCAA Tournament.
There have been some changes for Little Rock since last March. Wes Flanagan is the new head coach following the somewhat controversial departure of Chris Beard. Beard first accepted the UNLV job, and then shunned the Rebels in favor of the gig at Texas Tech. Flanagan will have to make do without a pair of terrific graduated players, but let’s just say he didn’t get stuck with an empty cupboard. The Trojans are perhaps a bit of an unknown quantity as their first two games were against non-D1 competition. But this is still a team that looks as though it will contend in the Sun Belt.
The spread here is no bargain, and in fact, there’s probably an argument to be made that it’s a touch inflated. But there’s some real excitement surrounding Little Rock’s fan base off last season’s awesome results and there should be a big crowd on hand tonight as admission will be free to all veterans and service personnel.
Look for this one to be competitive much of the way, but I’m expecting the Trojans to eventually get rid of the Vandals. I’ll side with UALR to get there by enough to cover the number in the process.
Scott Spreitzer
Spurs vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +7
The Lakers have covered the last three meetings largely due to huge point spreads, but this time they have the ability to cover a single-digit line having won three of their last four games upping their record to 7-5 and 8-3-1 ATS this season. San Antonio has won four straight but just 2-4 ATS its last six games and the Spurs are 1-4 ATS following a win. D'Angelo Russell exploded for 32 points and Julius Randle added 17 points and 14 rebounds in the Lakers 125-118 win over Brooklyn in their first game back after a three-game trip. The Spurs won but failed to cover their last two contests against Miami and Sacramento. The Lakers are second in the league averaging 110.0 points per game and third with a .473 field goal percentage and they're playing with two days rest.
Matt Josephs
UNLV vs. Boise St
Play: Over 66
Boise State inched ahead of Western Michigan in the eyes of the selection committee and that means that they will be in line for a New Year's six bowl game. The Broncos need to continue to pile up the points and the huge victories. UNLV has allowed over 35 points per game and 427 yards. Boise has put up 97 points in their last two games and is racking up the yards as well. The Rebels are coming off a 69-66 victory at home over Wyoming. They are playing this game just six days later so who knows how much they will have in them. Last year this contest was a 55-27 BSU win on the road. UNLV has gone over in 24 of their last 35 games including eight of 10 this year.
Ben Burns
Raptors vs. Nuggets
Play: Nuggets +4
The Nuggets got back on track with a blowout win over Phoenix last time out. That should provide some positive momentum. They already played the Raptors tough at Toronto, losing by three, and they'll be looking to get some payback tonight. Including the 'cover' at Toronto, the Nuggets are already 6-3 ATS on the season, when getting points. They're also 17-12 ATS the past couple of seasons, when coming off a double-digit win, 1-0 ATS this season. Last season, after winning by a point in Toronto, the Nuggets beat the Raptors by 19 points in the rematch here at Denver. They were +4.5 underdogs for that game, too. Consider grabbing the points.
Jim Feist
Nets at Thunder
Pick: Under
Brooklyn is limited offensively, #22 in the NBA in three-point shooting. They face an Oklahoma City team that folks think of as uptempo on offense behind Russell Westbrook, but they are also a strong defensive team for Coach Billy Donovan, #12 in the NBA in points allowed, #7 in three-point defense. OKC is 21-10 under the total against the Eastern Conference.
Brandon Powell
Texas A&M -7½
USC has struggled on the road the past couple seasons and while this is the best team they have had in recent memory they still need to prove they can win on the road. USC has struggled out of the gate in both their first 2 wins, they have been down at half 9 and 11. Texas A&M is a very long team and that will give the Trojans fits. Look for the Aggies to dominate in front of a loud crowd at home.
Scott Rickenbach
Blackhawks vs. Flames
Play: Flames +135
With Johnny Gaudreau out for the Flames and with the Blackhawks off of a 4-0 shutout loss, everyone is going to be lining up to lay the price with Chicago here. However, as a contrarian, this is the type of spot I look for and I am rolling with Calgary as my Free pick Friday. Note that the Blackhawks have a great record so far this season but have been helped by their schedule as they have only played 6 road games so far. The concern for the Hawks is that they have averaged only 2 goals per game on the road this season and they are now playing the 2nd game of a 7 game road trip. Calgary will see everyone step up now that Gaudreau is officially out with a broken finger and the Flames have averaged 2.7 goals per game at home this season. They've had trouble scoring goals but that has particularly been the case on the road. Look for everyone to elevate their game here for a Calgary club hungry for more home wins and looking to make up for the Gaudreau absence. While Chicago will be a popular choice here, the Blackhawks actually are 0-3 this season when off of a game where they allowed 4 goals or more. The Flames have won 19 of 30 (+$7,300) in home games with a posted total of 5 goals or less. The home dog is where the value is in this game as the Flames have a great shot at the upset.
David Banks
Clippers vs. Kings
Pick: Clippers-7.5
For NBA fans, it shouldn’t be surprising that the Clippers, and not the Warriors, have the best record in the Western Conference. Blake Griffin is healthy and leads Los Angeles with 20.2 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. Griffin doesn’t have to do it all either as point guard Chris Paul averages 19 points and 8.5 assists and C DeAndre Jordan adds 10.8 points and 12.2 rebounds per game. Throw in J.J. Redick’s 12.8 points a game and the Clippers lineup is solid.
Where the Clips make it happen though is on defense. Los Angeles leads the NBA in points allowed per game (91.8 ), surprising for a Western Conference team. The Clippers have won their last six games in a row holding three of those opponents under 90 points. Sacramento is not one of the West’s more prolific teams as they average under 100 per game. DeMarcus Cousins, averaging 26.6 points a game, can score, and Rudy Gay, who averages 22.3 per game, can generate some offense, but other than those two the Kings should not be able to keep up with Los Angeles.
L.A. faces a tough stretch over the next week as they take on both Chicago and Toronto. Fortunately, they get both teams at home. The Clippers won’t face Golden State until Dec. 7.
Wunderdog
Siena vs. Kansas
Pick: Under 160
Kansas is home, but has traveled 12,000 miles for its first two games! They come off a thrilling 77-75 upset of top-ranked Duke, winning the battle of the boards 38-29. Kansas won despite missing 10 free throws (47.4%). Kansas is 12-5-1 UNDER the total after a victory, plus 22-7-1 UNDER when following a spread win. They host Siena, a talented team that can play good defense. The Saints return all five starters from a team that went 21-13 last season. They come off a loss to George Washington and the team is 56-26-1 UNDER the total when following a defeat. All of which means a game featuring plenty of great defense.
Stephen Nover
Portland -125
Not only is Portland a better team than the Pelicans, who are tied for the worst record in the NBA, but there's a chance New Orleans could be minus Anthony Davis again.
Davis sat out New Orleans' last game this past Wednesday with a quad injury. Jrue Holiday does return for Pelicans. This will be his season debut, but he figures to be rusty.
The Trail Blazers hold a huge backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. The Trail Blazers' front line lacks star power, but there's depth and cohesion.
Portland has beaten New Orleans in eight of the past 10 meetings. The Trail Blazers should be motivated after getting blown out by the Rockets to start their five-game road trip.
The Trail Blazers own road victories against the Nuggets, Mavericks and Grizzlies - all better teams than the Pelicans.
Brett Atkins
Last season Memphis and Cincinnati combined for a whopping 99 total points in the Tigers 53-46 win over the Bearcats.
Tonight? Not even close totals wise, as Memphis and Cincy will hold Under the total.
Cincinnati has been held to a pair of field goals in their last two games, and for the season the Bearcats are barely averaging over 18 points per game!
Tommy Tuberville's team has played 5 straight and 8 of their 10 overall this season Under the total.
2 of Memphis' last 3 games played away from the Liberty Bowl have landed Under the total.
Just don't trust the Cincy offense to put up enough points to help aid in getting this one to slip Over the total.
Play it Under at Nippert Stadium.
4* MEMPHIS-CINCINNATI UNDER
Bob Valentino
I'm going to play the Boise State Broncos as my free play tonight, as they catch a UNLV team on short rest, and off a wild triple-overtime win over Wyoming, last week in Las Vegas.
Boise State is scrapping to climb back into the national spotlight, since losing to Wyoming a couple weeks back. And the fact the Rebels just beat the Cowboys should further piss off the Broncos.
The Rebels received more bad news, as their receiving corps has been depleted after top wideout Devonte Boyd was lost for the season with a broken arm. Earlier this season UNLV started Dalton Sneed at quarterback when starter Johnny Stanton went down. Tonight, Sneed is playing at receiver.
Trust me, though the Rebels are still trying to become bowl eligible and are in off a big win, nothing is going right for this team, and they're poised to get their clocks cleaned tonight.
Lay the home chalk, as Boise State rolls.
4* BOISE STATE