Eric Schroeder
My free play is going to be on the zone-happy Syracuse Orange, who should have no problem disposing of Monmouth tonight, by more than the prescribed number.
You do remember the last time we breathed these two schools in the same sentence, right? It was Selection Sunday last March, and two of the biggest story lines involved Syracuse getting into the dance, while the Hawks were left out.
Well, Syracuse might be better than the 10th seed that made it to the final foursome last season, and the Hawks, well, I'm not so sure.
I mean, after knocking off Drexel 78-65 in its opener Nov. 11, Monmouth overcame an 18-point deficit against South Carolina, sent the game into overtime on Tuesday, and then lost, 70-69 on a buzzer-beater.
Something tells me the disappointment hasn't worn off, and the Orange are catching Monmouth in a good spot.
Syracuse is led by point guards Frank Howard and John Gillon, who have combined for 46 points, 27 assists and just five turnovers in two games. The Orange has plenty of talent, and will exploit the morale-sunken Hawks tonight.
Lay the points.
3* SYRACUSE
Brad Wilton
Friday's comp play will be the underdog Celtics as they play host to the Warriors.
Golden State now playing their second of four in a row on the road, and they are just 2-3-1 against the spread their last 6 games played.
Boston is on a 3-1 straight up and against the spread run their last 4, and the Celtics have been able to compete with the Warriors in recent meetings, as Boston did win the last series meeting between the teams last April in Oakland, and they are a money-making 5-1-1 against the spread the past 7 times the teams have faced one another.
With a game in Milwaukee tomorrow night, look for Golden State to do just enough to win this game, as they don't wish to expend too much energy in order to keep their gas tank half full for Satuday.
Play on Boston plus the points.
3* BOSTON
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the new-look Los Angeles Lakers, plus the points against the San Antonio Spurs.
This full-scale renovation project is looking good so far, as the Lakers have already earned seven wins, a feat that took them much longer to achieve last season. Have to hand it to coach Luke Walton, he knows how to be in tune with this young roster, and the one thing you can say about this team is playing up to the level of competition.
Think about this for a moment: the Lakers have a better record than the Memphis Grizzlies, Houston Rockets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans. They've also blown out the two-time defending Western Conference champion Golden State Warriors.
In fact, three of the team's seven wins have come against quality opponents, that being Golden State, Atlanta and Houston.
The Lakers are scoring 107.1 points per 100 possessions this season, and the oddsmakers still aren't giving them their just due. The Lakers boast a 4-1 record at home, and will be looking for an outright win tonight.
5* L.A. LAKERS
ROB VINCILETTI
Warriors vs. Celtics
Play: Warriors -7
Rested road favorites of 5 or more that scored 120 or more as a road favorite last out and failed to cover are cashing over 90% long term. rested home dogs like the Celtics that are +5 or more and scored 90 or more as a home favorite of 5 or more are 1-10 to the spread vs a team that failed to cover as a 5+ road favorite like the Warriors. Based on the 2 database systems we will back Golden St tonight.
RAY MONOHAN
Toronto Raptors -3.5
The Raptors head into Denver on Friday and the road team laying the small number has some value. Denver hasn't been bad this year, but they also haven't been anything special. Here, the value comes from the road/home discrepancy.
Toronto is 3-1 away from Canada and 4-0 ATS while averaging 113 points per contest. Denver has gone just 1-3 inside the Pepsi Center, while giving up 112 points per game. This is a case where Toronto just has too many weapons.
They have a solid balance of the inside-out game, that Denver's defense will certainly struggle with.
Some trends to note. Raptors are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Raptors are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Look for the Raptors to really expose the Nuggets defense here, as they roll, covering the small number.
JACK JONES
Phoenix Suns +7
The Phoenix Suns are showing great value here as big road underdogs to the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are coming off a huge win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday, setting them up for a letdown spot here.
Phoenix, on the other hand, comes in extremely motivated for a victory after losing three straight. The Suns match up very well with the Pacers because they are both up-tempo teams with very good guard play. And few teams in the NBA have better guards than the Suns with their trip of Devin Booker (20.5 ppg), Eric Bledsoe (17.5) and Brandon Knight (12.8 ).
The Suns will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they'll be rested and ready to go. The Pacers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. And with big games against Oklahoma City and then Golden State on deck, they could be overlooking the Suns here.
Phoenix has actually won 8 of its last 11 trips to Indiana outright. The Suns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss. The Suns are 41-17-2 ATS in their last 60 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Pacers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Phoenix is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
DAVE PRICE
Los Angeles Lakers +7
The Los Angeles Lakers continue to get no respect from oddsmakers tonight as 7-point home underdogs to the San Antonio Spurs. The Lakers are 7-5 SU & 8-3 ATS this season. They are second in the NBA in scoring at 110.0 points per game, trailing only the Golden State Warriors in that department. They are 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS at home this season, scoring 115.6 points per game. The Spurs have won 4 straight coming in, but they only won by 4 over Miami and by 5 at Sacramento in their last two. They clearly aren't as strong as they've been in year's past and shouldn't be this heavily favored on the road against the upstart Lakers. The Spurs are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 1 days rest. The Lakers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
FRANK SAWYER
UNLV vs. Boise State
Play: UNLV +29½
Take the UNLV Rebels plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos. UNLV (4-6) earned a big win last week with their upset 69-66 win over Wyoming last week as a 7.5-point underdog. The Rebels will have plenty of confidence in this contest after that triumph. UNLV is also 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Boise State (9-1) has won two straight after their 52-16 thumping at Hawai’i last week. But the Broncos have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Take UNLV and all those points.
SPORTS WAGERS
CAROLINA -104 over Montreal
OT included. Montreal will play the front end of back-to-backs here with the Maple Leafs on deck tomorrow night in Montreal on Hockey Night in Canada’s featured game. This Toronto/Montreal rivalry suddenly has an entirely different feel to it because for the first time in 20 years, the Maple Leafs are relevant again. The Leafs are so relevant that the Habs have decided to go with Al Montoya tonight and save Carey Price for the Maple Leafs. Protocol for the Habs has always been to play Price in first game (get the win) and Montoya in the second game (free roll). Not here, which tells us that this game is a huge look-ahead spot for the Habs and/or that it is more of an inconvenience than anything else. If the Canadiens are overlooking the ‘Canes, they will get burned and if they are not overlooking them, they are still up against it. You see, Montreal is not a strong possession team. They are actually not a strong anything team except in goal where Carey Price continues to win them games they otherwise would have likely lost. No matter what surface stat or metric you look at (other than goaltending), you’ll find the Canadiens to be a middle of the pack NHL team.
The Hurricanes are in year two of being under the radar. This is a team that was rarely outplayed last year but missed the playoffs because they lost a league high 16 games in extra time. They also lost games on the square because of weak goaltending. This season, the 'Canes are a better outfit and Cam Ward is providing stable goaltending at the present time so we won’t make that an issue. Coach Paul Maurice has made a decision to stick with Ward and it’s paying off. It’s more than that though. Carolina is a possession juggernaut again, as they rank first in time spent in the offensive end. They also rank first in Corsi for per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play. The Canes are a top-three team at both ends of the ice. They create lots of chances while surrendering few. The Hurricanes are coming off back-to-back wins over Washington and San Jose while allowing just one goal combined. They outshot that pair 38-21 and 33-22 respectively. The Hurricanes have played the fifth toughest schedule in the league and they’re 3-0 against top-10 competition. Now it appears as though the Habs are more focused on Toronto, which sets this one up beautifully.
COLUMBUS +111 over N.Y. Rangers
OT included. After a three-game sweep on the Canadian West Coast in Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, the Rangers return to the East with a game here before hosting Florida on Sunday. The Rangers are now 13-4 and have reeled off eight wins over their past nine games. Thing is, everything is bouncing the Rangers way from pucks going in to pucks staying out. The Rangers shooting percentage is off the charts but it is also unsustainable so regression will be working against them real soon. In those three aforementioned games, the Rangers were outshot by Vancouver, 38-25 but won 7-2. They were outshot by Edmonton 39-27 and won 3-1 and they were also outshot by Calgary 36-28 but won that one too, 4-1. New York constantly gets outshot. They are commonly allowing 35 shots on net per game or more but they keep winning. You cannot spend significantly more time in your own end than in the opposition’s end and expect to keep winning. The Rangers charmed life likely ends here.
Pittsburgh is a -150 road favorite in Brooklyn tonight. The Blackhawks are a -144 road fav in Calgary. Based on the standings, the Rangers in Columbus to play the Jackets is as much as a mismatch as those two yet the Rangers are a much smaller price. Why? It is very likely because the odds makers are fully aware of the Rangers extreme fortune so far.
Columbus has played the third toughest schedule in the NHL while the Rangers strength of schedule ranks 29th. The Jackets, after a slow start, are 3-4 against top-10 teams and 6-6 against top 16 teams. The Jackets have recent wins over Washington, St. Louis, Anaheim (twice) and Montreal while the Rangers are getting (badly) outplayed by the likes of Vancouver and Calgary among others. The Jackets have been an extremely live pooch at home all year long and there is nothing suggesting that it won’t continue.
Zack Cimini
Golden State vs. Boston
Pick: Boston
It's evident that the Celtics as a whole are not making the early season standout points that Danny Ainge and Brad Stevens would expect. This is the road block game for the Celtics to re-awake in the early stages of the season. In fact last season at home on a Friday the Celtics pushed the Warriors to two overtimes. There's a one point line difference here from that game that showcases oddsmakers belief in the Celtics.
Harry Bondi
CINCINNATI +7.5 over Memphis
It’s been a disastrous season for the Bearcats, but if there is one game in which the team is going to be “up” for and come ready to play it’s tonight as they play their final home game of the season in front of 30,000 people in a stand-alone national TV situation against a team that has embarrassed them the last two seasons. What’s more, this is a bit of a sandwich game for Memphis, which dropped a gut-wrenching 49-42 decision to South Florida last week and has a game with Houston on deck. The Tigers defense is allowing nearly 30 points per game and 444 total yards of offense on the road this year, so there’s no way they should be laying a TD away from home.