Free Picks for Friday, November 24th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Strike Point Sports
Western Michigan / Toledo Over 61.5
This game is going to be a shootout, and we wouldn't be surprised to see both teams hit for 40+ points. Western Michigan has struggled a bit defensively lately, and that was evident in their last game when they gave up nearly 250 rushing yards to Northern Illinois. The Toledo offense, lead by quarterback Logan Woodside, is going to move the ball all day long against Western Michigan. Look for WMU to keep pace somewhat in this game, but in the end Toledo's offense will be too much, causing this game to go over the posted total. The 'over' is 7-2 in the last nine WMU games, and 7-2 in their last nine games on field turf. For Toledo the 'over' is 5-1 in their last six games overall and 7-1 in their last eight Friday games. This should be a fun, high-scoring game.
Indian Cowboy
Toledo (-14) over Western Michigan
We go for eight straight Newsletter Free Pick winners in a row today as we like Toledo to get it done over Western Michigan. Note that Toledo was routed by Western Michigan last year by a score of 55-35, and they will remember that as they face them this week. This is a Western Michigan team that lost a very close game to Northern Illinois 31-35 and covered as a 8.5-point dog in their last game, but they might be hungover from that loss. Toledo has revenge, sits at an impressive 9-2, has the 7th best offense in America and a respectable top 45 passing defense. Toledo just dropped 66 points on Bowling Green and is the same team that put up 30 points against Miami earlier this year. Look for Toledo to do well with revenge in mind and stay focused as a win here could be a significantly better bowl game as they get to the 10-win mark.
Doc's Sports
Orlando at Boston
Play: Orlando
Boston is clearly one of the best teams in basketball and one of the best teams in the east. But they can't win every game this season and they definitely won't cover every one, especially with their recent lines going sky high. As of this writing they almost failed to cover their last two games as they needed OT to get by Dallas and they had a late surge to beat the Hawks who hung with them most of the night. We expect a real big number here. Orlando is a decent squad this season and they are finally getting healthy. They are 5-3 ATS on the road this season and this team is normally undervalued on the road where they usually get big points. Actually this team is 4-1 ATS when getting five or more points this season and they are 5-3-1 ATS on the road. We think that the Thanksgiving holiday might be a distraction to the Celtics and they could come into this one unfocused and the young guys on the Magic will definitely want to play well here. We think that they can keep this one within double digits.
Cal Sports
New Mexico at San Diego St
Play: Under 48
Rocky Long and his 3-3-5 defense knows how to shut down the option and he did again early this season holding Air Force to 235 yards. The Aztecs have held 7 opponents to 315 yards or less and are fired up after allowing a season high 448 yards LW. The Lobos put up 35 points last week against a sieve-like UNLV D but in their prior 5 games they averaged just 10 PPG and are 3-10 O/U as an AD the L3Y. Both teams prefer to run the ball and with clock running will have a low scoring game with a predicted score of San Diego St 27 New Mexico 6.
Ray Monohan
Navy vs. Houston
Play: Houston
Houston -4.5 The Cougars have value laying the number at home on Friday. Houston and Navy are very similar teams when looking at the numbers. Where the Cougars grab their value is from their offensive play at home. Houston has put up 37.4 points per game this season when playing inside TDECU Stadium and they match up well here with a Navy defense that is very vulnerable to the big play. On top of that, the Cougars defense is ready for this triple option attack. The Cougars are giving up only 23.9 points per game this season, one of the best marks in the conference. Some trends to note. Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. This is a small number to lay for a team that is very good situationally in this spot.
Scott Spreitzer
Iowa vs. Nebraska
Play: Iowa -3½
We're 6-2 ATS playing against Nebraska with either free or premium plays this season, so this one should not come as a shock. We went against the Huskers last week and watched Penn State shut it down after building a 42-10 halftime lead. If James Franklin allowed his squad to keep their foot on the gas, we have a feeling Nebraska would have suffered one of their worst defeats since Bob Devaney took over the program in the early 1960s. We don't think this will be a problem here. Iowa's offense is not one to put 50 on the board on a regular basis, but we do expect them to hold a comfortable edge throughout the game and the short number is more than fair in our opinion. Nebraska can't run and they can't stop the run and QB Tanner Lee could provide Iowa with short field opportunities with his propensity for bad, interception-worthy throws. Nebraska's slide is now 1-5 SU after last week's loss and they allowed over 40 ppg and 500 yards per game during the skid. Nebraska's Memorial Stadium, once a fortress is now just another stop on the Big-10 road for conference opponents. The Huskers enter on a 1-8-2 ATS slide at home. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes have covered four of the last five in the series, including a 40-10 win last year in Iowa City and a 28-20 win in Lincoln two years ago. The Mike Riley-era likely comes to an end with the Huskers' fourth straight loss.
Teddy Covers
Miami-FL vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh +13
Miami has risen up to #2 in the latest college football playoff rankings, yet the Canes are primed to be tested at Pitt in early start action on Friday. Mark Richt’s squad is coming off three huge, marquee victories all at home. In statement games against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, Miami dominated, controlling the flow throughout. Last week, against Virginia, Miami roared back from an early deficit with a furious fourth quarter rally.
A road trip to Pittsburgh in late November is no easy task for this warm weather squad in a normal season. This year, given what Miami has already been through in recent weeks, it’s a MONSTER trouble spot, especially with the lookahead to the ACC title game against Clemson on deck. Quote after quote from the Miami locker room is concerning to me – lots of lookahead, lots of talk about what they don’t want to do (which often leads to the exact opposite effect).
Let’s not forget that the Hurricanes have been living on turnover margin, forcing 19 turnovers in their last five games – that won’t last forever. Nor should we forget the previous struggles this Hurricanes team has had on the highway – barely escaping past struggling Florida State (4-6, won by only four points) and North Carolina(3-8, won by only five points) in their only two road games since September.
Pitt has been hanging around as a moneywinning underdog against superior competition for most of the season. We saw them cover wire-2-wire at +20 at Penn State, knock off Duke with an outright upset at +9 and hang tough with Virginia Tech just last week; throwing for more than 300 yards against that stout Hokies defense on the road in a spread covering loss.
In four meetings between these schools over the past four years, Miami has only one win by more than ten points; a competitive series. All the pressure is on the road favorite here; a situation that this program hasn’t been in for many years. Their defense just allowed a season high in passing yards and total yards last week. Meanwhile Pitt has found their QB of the future in Kenny Pickett, a playmaking frosh with a big arm.
At 4-7, this is Pitt’s bowl game. Senior CB Avonte Maddox: “History is a great thing, but we live in the now. It’s time to create more history……I see it every day (in practice). You know when guys lose, they throw the towel in. This team hasn’t thrown the towel in yet … These guys (are) willing to lay it all on the line.”
Power Sports
Iowa vs. Nebraska
Pick: Iowa -3.5
Though they hold a win (55-24!) over Ohio State, this season has largely been a disappointment for Iowa as they enter they enter the final game at only 6-5 SU (will be going to a bowl). Since stunning the Buckeyes (as 18-pt home dogs), the Hawkeyes have dropped B2B games, first to Wisconsin (predictable) and then to Purdue (upset). They close the regular season out at Nebraska and while little is on the line Friday afternoon, I view this number as being way too short given the state of the Cornhuskers, who aren't going bowling and will likely be looking for a new head coach shortly after this game (if they already aren't!). Lay the points.
This is HC Mike Riley's third year in Lincoln and likely his last. He did get the Cornhuskers to overachieve and finish 9-4 SU last season, but this has been one of the weaker seasons in recent memory for this once proud program. The AD that hired Riley was fired earlier this year, which was an ominous signal for the coaching staff and it's effects have shown up on the field. If it was up to the fanbase, Riley would already be gone and UCF's Scott Frost hired in his place. But that will have to wait (if it happens at all). Last week's 56-44 loss to Penn State guaranteed Nebraska would not have a shot at going to a bowl (barring there not being enough six-win teams) and w/ a coaching staff concerned about it's next job, I just can't see much of an effort taking place Friday.
Iowa has beaten Nebraska each of the last two seasons, including 40-10 in Iowa City last year. Though 3-5 SU in Big 10 play, Iowa has actually outscored its opponents. Meanwhile, Nebraska has the same Big 10 record, but has been outscored by 82 points! The Huskers' only Big 10 win since September came by a single point over Purdue. Here's a trend for you: Iowa is a perfect 8-0 SU the last three seasons as a road favorite, covering the spread in six of those games.
I won't be around at all on Friday not even in the morning since I will be traveling in the morning then will be going to the PK80 Basketball tournament for the entire day.