Free Picks for Friday, November 25th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Dave Cokin
Texas -2.5
There is very little to support this selection with from a statistical standpoint. From a purely data-based perspective, the wrong team is favored. TCU is better than Texas and on paper, I’d have the Horned Frogs -2 in this game. But this is one of those spots where I believe the intangibles will be the determining factor.
This will be the finale for Charlie Strong as head coach at Texas. Strong was an underdog to be returning for the 2017 season for several weeks, but now it’s official. He’ll coach the Friday regular season finale and that will be the end. According to what I can determine, even if Texas wins and qualifies for a bowl with a 6-6 record, an interim coach will handle that game.
As for TCU, the Horned Frogs are definitely a flop as well. Gary Patterson’s team needs a win in one of its last two games to get an invite someplace, so I would guess TCU will be inspired for this game. I’d certainly be surprised if the Frogs just roll over in what is a serious rivalry battle.
But this is one of those spots I like to play, and my stance is generally to go with the outgoing coach in what will be his final game. Strong might not have succeeded with Texas in the column that counts. But he took over a program in turmoil and at least got that problem straightened out, which should make things easier for the next coach.
At the very least, I absolutely expect an all-out effort from all the Texas players in this game. Strong is very well respected by his guys and I definitely believe they want to hoist him on their shoulders and carry him off the field when this game concludes. The only way to make that happen is to win the game, and I think that determination on the part of the Longhorns will be the key. I’ll look to spot the short number with Texas on Friday.
Tony George
Arkansas vs. Missouri
Play: Arkansas -7
Arkansas racked up up 661 yards last week against a better defense than MIzzou's, on the road in a blowout of Miss. State! Mizzou ran for almost 400 yards last week and still got blown out and gave up 62 points. Howe does that even happen, which is why Missouri is just explainable this year, a serious fall from grace. Mizzou defense is deplorable, Their QB is deplorable, their kicker is deplorable and their coaching is rancid. Despite a good frosh RB running it for Mizzou, I doubt he has enough to keep the Kitty Cats close and they lose late as Arkansas rolls the Tigers, Lay it.
Alan Harris
Texas Tech / Baylor Over 84
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the Baylor Bears at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX on Friday night. Texas Tech has posted an 8-3 record in their last 11 games following a straight up loss and they have gone an excellent 15-6 to the over in their last 21 games following a straight up loss by 20 points or more. They have also gone 11-2 to the over in their last 13 games where they faced a team with a winning record and they have gone up and over the total in 14 of their last 17 neutral-site games. The Bears have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Friday as they have gone 4-1 to the over in their last five games following a double digit loss at home and they have gone a perfect 6-0 to the over in their last neutral-site contests. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone over the number in each of their last six head-to-head meetings and that's where we'll have our play as our numbers have this one turning into an old fashioned shootout in Jerry World on Friday night.
DAVE COKIN
MINNESOTA AT PHOENIX
PLAY: MINNESOTA PK
Tom Thibodeau is the head coach of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Following the teams’t third consecutive loss, this one at New Orleans, Tibs was not in the most jovial holiday mood.
Thibodeau didn’t mince many words in assessing his team’s performance against the Pelicans, as well as their overall performance. Not surprisingly, given his reputation as a defensive specialist, that aspect of the Timberwolves game appeared to have Thibodeau most aggravated. He mentioned the team “not playing any defense” and later in the interview offered that “I don’t know what we’re doing defensively”.
I have a feeling we’re going to see that portion of the Minnesota game getting more focus tonight at Phoenix. That doesn’t necessarily translate into a victory against the Suns, as the team still has to make some shots. But the Suns are a squad that can get handled when the opponent puts the clamps down defensively, and I’ll be really surprised if there’s not some real intensity in display tonight by the Wolves.
This is also not a great spot for Phoenix. The Suns have a lousy ledger when returning home from an extended road trip. plus this is not a team that has shown much ability to string together good performances. I also have a tendency to prefer visiting teams in holiday settings, as they don’t have anything else to do other than play the game, plus they’re not always overjoyed at having to spend the holiday way from family and friends.
Minnesota is clearly a bit of a flop through the early going with only four wins. But this is a team they ought to be take care of business against if they come to play. I’ll bank on the effort being there on the defensive end, and if the Wolves can make a few shots, I like them to get the best of the Suns tonight.
Dave Cokin
Toledo +9
Monster game for Western Michigan, as if the Broncos win this and then also take the MAC title game, they ought to get the Cotton Bowl. That also means they have all the pressure, and I wouldn't be shocked if they come out a little tight. WMU is legit, I've got them in my Top 25, and that's some tall timber for a MAC team. But Toledo isn't far behind, and the Rockets fit a nice late season stat angle. Teams that won the numbers is all of their games, or at least all but one, do quite well as dogs when we get to this point of the season. Stats are very reliable by this time and I put quite a bit of faith in them. Toledo's only negative stat game all season was vs. Northern Illinois, and that was by just a few yards. The Rockets only have two losses and both were by very narrow margins, at BYU by a deuce and the five-point loss to Ohio. I agree Western Michigan is the better team, but it's not by this much in terms of the points and I actually see the situation favoring Toledo. Rockets plus the points.
Rob Vinciletti
Houston vs. Memphis
Play: Memphis +4
Expect a big bounce here from Houston today off the big dog win over Louisville as a 17 point dog. Road favorites off a home dog win that scored 35 or more and are playing a team who won have covered 15 of 20 long term. Memphis is 6-0 at home if the total is 56-63 and they have revenge for a 1 point loss in Houston last year. The Cougars are 1-8 in last road games and are 4-9 ats as a road favorite from -3.5 to -7. They have also failed to cover 3 of 5 vs winning teams.
Stephen Nover
Clippers vs. Pistons
Play: Under 201½
Playing the day after Thanksgiving can be a flat spot for NBA teams since all were idle on Turkey Day.
The Clippers, for instance, took in the Vikings-Lions game. The Pistons were enjoying the holiday at home with their minds fresh from the historic announcement that the team will move from the Palace of Auburn Hills to play downtown next season when the new Little Caesars Arena opens.
So these teams may not be mentally sharp for this matchup. They also happen to have impressive defensive credentials.
The Clippers rank No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and fourth in scoring defense holding foes to 97.1 points per game. This mark includes holding the Pistons to 82 points in their earlier meeting this season. Detroit ranks 26th in scoring averaging 97.4 points a game. The Pistons are in the bottom-eight in field goal percentage and their free throw percentage is ruined by Andre Drummond.
Detroit is one of these bad road-good home team types. The Pistons have surrendered only 88.1 points during their their first eight home contests. They should play with a lot of intensity in this early-season revenge spot.
Matt Josephs
Boise State vs. Air Force
Play: Air Force +8½
Boise State continues to play for a potential New Year's bowl as they travel to play Air Force. Boise State's offense has been fantastic all year while the Falcons have played pretty good defense. The Broncos have won three straight since a loss at Wyoming. Air Force is on a four game win streak having scored 31 points or more in each contest. Defensively they have forced two turnovers or more in five straight. The Broncos defense has sprung some leaks lately so they may struggle to slow down AFA. The Falcons have covered four straight in this series and won on the road last year 37-30. Air Force has covered in 12 of their last 17 home games. Boise has been a money burner all year long covering just three of 11 contests. I think the home team can keep this one close.
Dave Price
Arkansas vs. Missouri
Play: Arkansas -8
This is an absolute mismatch. We have one of the better teams in the stacked SEC West in Arkansas up against one of the worst teams in the weak SEC East in the Missouri Tigers. I think the final score will reflect just how big of a mismatch this really is. These teams only have two common opponents this season in LSU and Florida. Arkansas was only outscored by 3.5 points per game and outgained by 15.5 yards per game in those 2 contests. Missouri was outscored by 30.5 points per game and outgained by 264.5 yards per game in those 2 games. Missouri gave up 63 points to Tennessee last week and Arkansas hung 58 on Mississippi State. I don't see how the Tigers are going to prevent the Razorbacks from scoring in this one as they should keep piling on the points as the game goes on. The Razorbacks won 28-3 over the Tigers last season. Missouri is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games overall.
Marc Lawrence
Texas -2½
Edges - Longhorns: 17-6 SU and 16-7 ATS in Last Home Games, including 8-2 SUATS versus foe off a loss. Horned Frogs: 0-2 SUATS as dogs of less than 7 points this season. With the Horns focused on sending Charlie Strong out a winner, we recommend a 1* play on Texas.
Jimmy Boyd
Arkansas vs. Missouri
Play: Arkansas -7½
I really like the value we are getting here with the Razorbacks laying less than double-digits against the Tigers. This is a complete mismatch in talent and playing at home isn't going to be enough for Missouri to keep this game close. The Tigers are just 1-6 in SEC play, where they have been outscored by 14.7 ppg. That's playing in the pathetic East Division, where only 2 of the 7 teams go into Week 13 with a winning conference record. Arkansas is just 3-4 in league play, but all 4 losses have come against ranked teams. Keep in mind they rolled Florida 31-10 at home and the Gators are 6-2 in the east.
Arkansas is sitting at 7-4 and looking to improve their resume to potentially get into a better bowl game. I think it's also important to this team to avoid going 3-5 in SEC play and instead finish up at 4-4. As for Missouri, there's absolutely nothing left for the Tigers to play for and for a lot of the players they likely can't wait to put this season in the books.
From a matchups perspective the edge for the Razorbacks only gets stronger. Arkansas should have a field day on the ground in this one. The Razorbacks just put up 357 rushing yards at Mississippi State and now face a Missouri defense that comes in 118th against the run, giving up 239.9 ypg. They will also have plenty of success throwing the ball when they choose to do so, as the Tigers are 77th against the pass (237.6 ypg). Keep in mind that the Razorbacks are 3-0 in the SEC when they rush for 200+ yards and 0-4 when they rush for 120 or less.
Arkansas' defense isn't great and their biggest weakness is against the run, as they come in 101st in run defense, allowing 216.5 ypg. A big part of that has to do with the great running teams they face in the west. Auburn, Alabama, LSU, Miss St and Texas A&M are all ranked in the top 33 in the country in rushing. The lone team in the west that struggles to run is Ole Miss (103rd) and they held them to 150 yards. Missouri has a decent running game, but will be without their top weapon in the backfield in Damarea Crockett (suspended), who has 1,062 yards and 10 TDs on 153 attempts (6.9 yards/carry).
The Razorbacks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 against bad defensive teams that are allowing 425 or more yards/game, winning by an average of 20.1 ppg. Missouri is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record, losing in this spot by 13.8 ppg.
Michael Alexander
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -24½
Syracuse had high hopes this season following the hiring of Dino Babers from Bowling Green, but as it is turning out, there is a lot more work to do with this squad then thought. Their top player, QB Dungey, had been on the sidelines with a concussion over the last 3 games. When playing, he had 298 passing yards per game. Since he's not playing take all of that production out of the Syracuse offense and you're left with the 122nd-ranked running game, and a defense that has given up 45 points per game in the last 3 weeks). Pittsburgh comes into this one after total domination of an up and coming Duke team, by scoring 2 touchdowns in each quarter of that 56-14 rout. The Panthers also own the 4th best rushing defense. This one is a no brainer!
Mike Lundin
Hawks +2½
Both the Utah Jazz and the Atlanta Hawks snapped losing streaks their last time out. I like the Hawks to be the team to win back-to-back games, or at the very least cover the spread here at Vivint Smart Home Arena Friday night.
The Hawks opened a five-game road trip on Wednesday with a 96-85 victory at Indiana. They're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Utah. Dwight Howard is off to an impressive start in his first season with his hometown team and he's coming off season-highs of 23 points and 20 rebounds against the Pacers.
The Jazz won for the first time in five games when they took down the Nuggets 108-83 on Wednesday. Worth noting though that the Jazz are just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Hawks have won nine of the last 10 meetings between the two teams, and I predict more success for the Hawks in this contest.
Jack Jones
Northern Illinois vs. Kent State
Play: Northern Illinois -5
The Northern Illinois Huskies showed me a lot last week. They came into their game with a 3-7 record and eliminated from postseason contention. They fell behind 21-0 by halftime and easily could have packed it in. But they didn't, and they actually came back to win that game 31-24 in overtime.
Freshman Daniel Santacaterina replaced and injured Ryan Graham in the second half and sparked the comeback. Santacaterina ended up throwing for 103 yards and a touchdown, but he was even more effective with his legs, rushing for 91 yards on 13 carries. He is just the spark this team needed, and I look for them to carry their momentum into this game against Kent State.
We've seen the effort from NIU here down the stretch as it has gone 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall now, so it has been an undervalued commodity for weeks. The Huskies have gone 4-3 straight up with their three losses coming by 15 at Western Michigan as 18-point dogs, by 6 in OT to Central Michigan as 1.5-point favorites, and by 7 as 7-point dogs to Toledo, which are three of the best teams in the MAC and they played all three down to the wire.
I question the effort we're going to see from Kent State here after it lost 7-42 to lowly Bowling Green last week despite being 2.5-point favorites. The Golden Flashes gave up a whopping 597 total yards in that contest and were outgained by 343 yards.
While NIU is fine with Santacaterina playing quarterback, Kent State is in dire straits at the QB position. The Golden Flahses are down to their third-string quarterback now in George Bollas after Nick Holley was injured. Bollas has only completed 13 of 23 passes on the season. Holley is a huge loss because he leads the team in rushing by far with 950 yards and 10 scores.
This has been a one-sided series to say the least. Northern Illinois is a perfect 8-0 straight up and 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Huskies have won seven of those meetings by at least a touchdown, and I expect that to be the case here again as they cover this 5-point spread.
Northern Illinois is 6-0 ATS in November road games over the past three seasons. The Huskies are 8-1 ATS following a win over the past two years. The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Golden Flashes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.