SPORTS WAGERS
N.C. State +10 over NORTH CAROLINA
The Tar Heels are still alive in the ACC race, but getting to the title game requires not only beating North Carolina State in this one, but having 2-9 Virginia win in Blacksburg for the first time since 1998. Before Carolina can play Cavaliers cheerleader, though, it has to stop a Wolfpack squad that's been playing pretty well the past few weeks after an October swoon and is now fighting for its postseason life.
The Wolfpack’s stock is low after losing by 14 to a very good Miami team last week and after losing five of their last six. However, three of those losses were to ranked squads in Clemson, Louisville and Florida State. The Wolfpack took Clemson to OT before dropping a 24-17 decision and they lost to FSU by just four. Man, you talk about a tough schedule and a battle tested team and one need not look further than these visitors. State can win this one outright.
UNC Coach Larry Fedora has lost his backers money in November and beyond every year but one at North Carolina, and the Heels have been physically dominated in consecutive bowls. The Tar Heel defense was on the field for 42 minutes last week against the Citadel. This team has been sloppy throughout November and has not shown enough improvement on either side of the ball the past month to warrant spotting this type of weight to a team that might be better and more prepped than they are. Take the points immediately.
WASHINGTON ST +6 over Washington
State enters this contest off a loss against top-15 opponent and current Pac-12 South leader, Colorado. The Cougars lost by two touchdowns in an offensive oriented affair that saw Colorado’s Phillip Lindsay neutralize a prototypical NFL quarterback in Luke Falk. Colorado simply had the right blueprint to beat Washington State, as they ran the ball and kept the patented Wazoo passing attack off the field and limiting their chances to strike. This has been the age-old stratagem for many opponents of Washington State, yet it hasn’t been all effective this year. Washington State could have easily been undefeated heading into their affair with Colorado, as they started off 0-2 and lost both those games by a combination of six points. One of those scenarios include a road loss at Boise State. Since then, Washington State has ransacked the Pac-12 and a win here against their most hated foe puts them in position to potentially avenge the loss against Colorado on a neutral field in the Pac-12 Championship game. A win also means that WSU will finish with 10 wins and a possible Rose Bowl bid.
The Huskies are entering uncharted territory. If UW wins here, it will play for the Pac-12 crown against either USC or Colorado. A win in the Pac-12 Championship game and the speculation is that the Huskies will likely earn the fourth position in the College Football Playoff. The Huskies have dominated this rivalry series in recent years but they have not faced Washington State playing at this level in any of those encounters. This is one of the best Wazoo teams fielded in recent history and all that can be chalked up to the mastery of Coach Mike Leach. Rivalry games are often the stage where the unthinkable happens. When you throw in nearly a touchdown and home field advantage, the Cougars offer an abundance of upside. If this game devolves into a shootout and outside of the parameters the Huskies normally play in, that situation would most undoubtedly favor Wazoo. Washington should be prepared for a fight here and in a game this close with so much at stake, the points are so appealing when the dog has a great chance to win outright.
Jim Feist
Pelicans at Trailblazers
Pick: Under
Anthony Davis is a force at both ends of the floor for New Orleans. The Under is 38-15-2 in the Pelicans last 55 road games. Portland is home, 7-3 under the total at home against a team with a losing road record. The Under is 34-16-1 in the Blazers last 51 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings, 5-0 under in this building.
Joe Gavazzi
Cincinnati at Tulsa -22.5
Super-Surger vs. Towel Tosser Deluxe! LTS followers celebrated late in the evening with their 6% victory on Tulsa +2 in their 35-20 mini upset of UCF. The Canes led wire to wire with a 352-88 yard overland advantage. It means that in the last 5 games Tulsa has 200 Clubbed their opponent on 4 of 5 occasions and run for 330 or more yards 4 of those 5 weeks. They already have 5 victories this season by 21 or more points. They continue to Super Surge for their best bowl bid. The Bearcats are at the opposite end of the spectrum on an 0-4 SU, ATS late season slide in which they have not gained more than 327 total yards in any of those contests. In the last 3 weeks, they have TOTALED ONLY 13 POINTS. Well aware this line is more than 3 TDs from where it would have been opening week. But in this case, it is well deserved. The Golden Hurricane backers get their CHEAP THRILLS with 2nd half score after score by the scoring machine that is their home team.
Toledo at Western Michigan -10
Look no further than this week’s lead article entitled “With Need You Bleed” to see why we are looking to line up with rivalry dog Toledo at a price that is 10 points higher than where it would have been opening week. 11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS Western Michigan who has covered the number by a net 112 points is the team with need looking to maintain their undefeated status as the lone non power 5 team. In so doing, they will garner the prestigious New Year’s Day Bowl Bid. For Toledo, this game has equal meaning in its own right as a victory today sends the Rockets to the Title Game and a chance for the MAC Championship. Toledo QB Woodside completes 70% of its passes with a 40/7 ratio. The offense is balanced by RB Hunt at 5.3 YPR. Clearly respect the work of WMU WB Terrell at 71% with a 27/1 ratio. But this is a rivalry dog deluxe with Toledo posting a record of 12-1 ATS away and 6-0 ATS in the role of underdog of late.
Matt Fargo
Toledo at Western Michigan
Play: Toledo
We played against Toledo in its last game as it went through the motions against Ball St. in looking ahead to this game while trying to remain as healthy as possible. The Rockets can take the MAC West with the victory and while they do have two losses, they were by a combined seven points and they won the yardage battle in both. Western Michigan has steamrolled the opposition all season with each of its last 10 wins coming by at least 14 points. However, one look at the schedule will show why as of those 10 wins, only two came against teams that will be playing in a bowl game and none with more than seven wins. This line is not giving Toledo the respect it deserves. We play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams averaging 440 or more ypg, after gaining 475 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Broncos are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games against teams averaging 425 ypg while Toledo is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game.
Marc Lawrence
Nebraska vs. Iowa
Play: Nebraska
Edges - Cornhuskers: 4-1-1 ATS away off BB home games; and 6-2 ATS with conference revenge. Hawkeyes: host in this series is 0-4 SU. With Iowa 0-5 ATS in Last Home Games following a SU win, we recommend a strong 3* play on Nebraska.
Houston vs. Memphis
Play: Memphis
Edges - Tigers: 4-0 ATS as home dogs of more than 3 points; and 5-1 ATS in Last Home Games. Cougars: 1-8 SU and 3-5 ATS in Last Road Games.
Our Perfect System Club cements the play as it tells us to: PLAY AGAINST any winning college conference road favorite off a SU home dog win of 30 or less points if they are facing an avenging opponent off a SUATS win provided the road favorite is not undefeated and allows more than 15 PPG. That’s because these teams are 0-13 ATS in this role since 1980. With that we recommend a strong 3* play on Memphis.
David Banks
Warriors @ Lakers
Play: Lakers +13
The Warriors have won seven in a row heading into a Monday night game with Indiana (7-7). On Wednesday, Golden State (11-2) will face the NBA’s second-best scoring team, the Los Angeles Lakers. If first-year head coach Luke Walton can get his team of no-names to play defense, the Lakers could surprise some people. The Lakers are one of the worst in the league in terms of points allowed per game (109.6).
Golden State, the NBA’s top scoring team (116.8 points per game), features arguably the strongest lineup in the league. Kevin Durant averages 27.9 points and eight rebounds a game to lead the Warriors. Steph Curry adds 26.4 points a game and Klay Thompson scores 20 a night. Draymond Green is the glue that holds the unit together, once again averaging nearly a triple-double per game. Green scores 10.8 points, grabs 9.1 rebounds, and dishes out nearly seven assists per game.
The Lakers, who lost their two games last week, will have a hard time slowing down the Warriors offense. Los Angeles has given up at least 107 points in each of their last four games (three were losses). The Lakers last gave up under 100 points on Nov. 12 when they beat New Orleans, then 1-9, 126-99. The Lakers have five players that average at least 14 points a game. Louis Williams leads the team in scoring with 16.9 points a game.
Harry Bondi
WASHINGTON STATE (+6.5) over Washington
Lots at stake here in the annual Apple Cup and we’re going to back the home dog. Love the fact that WSU comes in after losing to Colorado last week in a meaningless game that snapped an eight-game winning streak, since head coach Mike Leach is 40-22 ATS in his career the week after a loss. We’ll gladly take the TD head start against a Washington team that has received a ton of love from the national media, but is just 5-6 ATS this season, including just 1-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. Take the points!
DWAYNE BRYANT
ARKANSAS AT MISSOURI
PLAY: MISSOURI +8
Another game where I feel the more motivated team also owns the better run defense AND is getting points. And not only are they getting points, but they are getting more than a TD at home.
Arkansas is 7-4. Their next game will be a bowl game at a time and place to be determined. Missouri is just 3-8, making this home game their final game of the season. You know the Tigers want to end the season with a win in front of the home faithful.
Missouri has the better rushing offense (5 yards per carry vs Arkansas’ 4.5 ypc) and the better run defense (5.4 yards per carry allowed vs Arkansas’ 6.3 ypca). Definitely not good run D numbers for either side, but the edge definitely goes to the home dog.
In a game where neither team figures to get many stops, the home Tigers and their 7th-ranked offense should be able to stay within a TD. Play MISSOURI +8.
BRYAN LEONARD
NC STATE AT NORTH CAROLINA
PLAY: NORTH CAROLINA -10.5
Now that the line is coming down it's time to jump in with the Tar Heels on Friday. North Carolina has won 3 of the last 4 meetings but the last game in Chappel Hill saw the Wolfpack pound the homestanding squad 35-7. Last week state faced a physical Miami Florida team and is now playing for the ninth straight week. North Carolina on the other hand faced The Citadel and this is only the fourth game since its bye. Over the last month the Tar Heels have a +8 explosive play advantage over the Wolfpack, and its also plus on the entire season.
Bill Biles
Toledo vs. Western Michigan
Play: Western Michigan -7
For all that Western Michigan has accomplished this year they still need to win this game to clinch the West. Also need to win to stay in the race for a New Years 6 bowl game. Toledo won't be able to stay in the game because if they arent as strong defensively.
Brandon Lee
Nebraska vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa -2.5
The Hawkeyes followed up their huge upset of Michigan at home with a 28-0 win at Illinois. I was really impressed with the way Iowa responded after arguably the biggest win of their program. It appears that victory has gave this team new life and they certainly are going to be fired up against Nebraska. These two programs don't like each other and the Hawkeyes would love nothing more than to put to rest any hope the Cornhuskers have of winning the Big Ten West (need to win here and have Wisconsin lose). I look for Iowa's defense to be the difference in this one and the offense to do just enough to get the win and cover.
Power Sports
Minnesota vs. Phoenix
Pick: Minnesota
Though the T'wolves are currently tied for the worst ATS record in the league (4-10), I'm not about to lose faith in what Tom Thibodeau is doing here. Coming off three consecutive losses, I look for them to get back into the win column here at the expense of a Phoenix team returning home after a long road trip.
The Suns have one of the league's better ATS record. They are, though, 0-3 ATS as favorites (10-6 as dogs). Last time out, they beat Orlando 92-87 (+4) to cap a 2-4 SU trip that included a loss at Philadelphia. It was a long-trip (6,000+ miles), one that started out West and took the team down the Atlantic. The team only had Thanksgiving off to rest, so I do not think we'll be seeing Phoenix, already a bad team, operating at "full capacity" here. They won't have TJ Warren (concussion) or Tyson Chandler (personal) in the lineup tonight either.
Minnesota's four wins have all come against pretty bad teams and have been in blowout fashion. That matchup would seem to follow that script. They've actually been quite competitive in almost every game, routinely taking double digit leads, only to blow them. Andrew Wiggins should start to shoot the ball better moving forward and the T'wolves are the better team overall.
Ben Burns
Nashville -195
These teams will meet again in Winnipeg on Sunday. That being the scheduling situation and given the home/road records of both teams, I fully expect the Preds to take care of buiness on home ice here. The Preds are 7-2-1 here at Nashville but only 2-8-2 on the road. Likewise, the Jets are 3-9-2 on the road but 6-4 at Winnipeg. The Preds have won five striaght here and have won those games by a combined score of 19-5, each of those five wins coming by multiple goals. Look for them to "hold serve" and keep rolling for another day.
Jeffrey James
Arizona St -3
Very disappointing seasons for both of these teams but the Sun Devils are holding all the cards in this matchup. They can get bowl eligible with a win so they will be very fired up - as if they needed more motivation against an in-state rival. Arizona has 2 SU wins this season - against Grambling State and Hawaii. They only have 1 cover all season long in PAC 12 play losing by 7 as 14 point dogs to Washington. Just don't see how they can compete with an Arizona State team that has struggled in conference play but went undefeated out of conference.
The Real Animal
Arkansas / Missouri Over 73
Missouri is without top running back Damarea Crockett, who rushed for 225 yards at Tennessee last week following a suspension for a marijuana arrest. But that should just mean more opportunities for Ish Witter, who rambled for 163 yards and two touchdowns also in Knoxville. Did anybody else notice the Tigers accumulated 740 total yards in the 63-37 loss to the Volunteers and that was accomplished despite four turnovers. Of course, it’s not like Missouri could stop Tennessee either. The Vols rolled up over 600 yards and 63 points. That was the fifth time in six games Missouri has allowed 31 or more points in 6/7 games. Arkansas falls roughly into the same category following their 58-42 win at Mississippi State six days ago. That game featured 1,194 total yards and 100 points. Arkansas is 4-0 ‘OVER’ on the road this year with 76.7 the average amount of points scored. Weather is no problem in Columbia on Saturday with sunny skies and temperatures in the 50’s. Coach Bielema is 8-0 ‘OVER’ on the road in all games he has coached as a road favorite from 7.5-14 points. Missouri is averaging 43.2 points per game at home this year.