Bruce Marshall
Virginia -11
Tony Bennett's recent dismissal of Memphis transfer Austin Nichols caught ACC onlookers by surprise. But UVa has not skipped a beat en route to an impressive 4-0 break from gate. Indeed, the Cav "D" looks as good as ever after holding a couple of recent foes (including capable Ivy rep Yale) to fewer than 40 points. Bennett getting good mileage in first two weeks from holdover Gs Marial Shayok (13 ppg) and Darius Thompson (10 ppg), both gladly assuming a larger scoring burden after playing supporting roles the past two seasons, while true frosh G Kyle Guy (11 ppg; 8 of 10 on triples in first four games!) is adding a sharper dimension to the Cav attack. By the time Big Ten season rolls, Fran McCaffery might have his Iowa side ready for another run at a postseason berth. But Hawkeyes and their four new starters failed in their lone serious test to date vs. Seton Hall.
Brett Atkins
Big total for Friday in Kalamazoo, but I suspect the Rockets and Broncos are up for some offense as Western Michigan looks to end the regular season undefeated.
Toledo is actually 4-0-1 Under the total their last 5 games, but the Rockets have been able to score an average of 34.6 points per game in that 5 game stretch, so expect Jason Candle's team to get their ya-yas out in this game.
Western Michigan has played 3 of their last 4 games Over the total, and the Over is a solid 5-1 their last 6 games played at Waldo Stadium.
Series numbers show 5 of the last 7 series meetings having landed Over the total, and I like those numbers to move to 6 of the last 8 with this regular season finale turning into a shootout.
Rockets-Broncos to land Over the total.
2* TOLEDO-WESTERN MICHIGAN OVER
Brad Wilton
Payback time for the Golden Hurricane who lost 49-38 last year in Cincinnati to the Bearcats.
49 points in one game!?!?! Tommy Tuberville's team hasn't scored that many points combined in their last in their last 4 games, as Cincy has tallied just 26 points in losing their last 4 games both straight up and against the spread!
No chance the Bearcats stay close against an explosive Tulsa team that turned on the jets last week in their 35-20 win and cover against a tough Central Florida team.
Tulsa has scored 35 or better in 5 straight games, so count on the Golden Hurricane finding paydirt at will tonight.
The Golden Hurricane has covered 4 of 5 this season as the home chalk, while the Bearcats are now on a 3-12 spread slide that dates back to last season.
Most assuredly, this will be the last game of the 4 year tenure of Tommy Tuberville in the Queen City. It won't end happily.
Bombs away! Lay it with Tulsa.
4* TULSA
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Black Friday is on the Boise State Broncos, as I love them on the road in Colorado Springs against the Air Force Falcons. Though I might normally be wary of laying this many on the road against that triple-option, I'm not going to worry about it knowing how the Falcons' defense has failed of late.
Air Force, which is 8-3 on the year, is also 4-7 ATS this season. And in their last three games, the Falcons have given up an average of 32 points per game. That won't bode well against a Broncos team that is scoring 37 points per game, 46.3 points in their last three contests and 42.4 points on the road.
The Broncos will be in revenge, too, as the Falcons went into Boise last season and won outright as a 10.5-point underdog, 37-30. Now it's time to avenge the setback and improve to 11-1. As a matter of fact, this is double-revenge, as the Falcons also won in 2014.
This is the year the Broncos finally get past Air Force. Take the road team here.
5* BOISE STATE
Bob Valentino
My complimentary winner is on the Memphis Grizzlies, laying a mere 6 points to a beleaguered Miami Heat squad that is struggling terribly right now. And after the Heat took a beating two nights ago in Motown, then taking Thanksgiving off, they're back on the road in Memphis and this one won't be any easier.
The Grizzlies are 10-5 and riding a six-game win streak, and I think will dominate the 4-10 Heat, who have lost two games in a row and are in next-to-last place in the Eastern Conference. Prior to losing to the Pistons by 23, Miami lost to the worst team in the East, the Philadelphia 76ers.
I know three Grizzlies players are out with injuries: small forwards James Ennis (strained calf) and Chandler Parsons (left knee bone bruise) and power forward Brandan Wright (left ankle tendinitis), but the Heat haven't won in Memphis since February 2010, and again, they're struggling bad right now.
Besides, the Heat are ailing, too. They could very well be without their starting backcourt, as point guard Goran Dragic (elbow) and wing Dion Waiters (groin) are battling injuries. That won't bode well since Miami is already missing starting small forward Justise Winslow (left wrist) and backup center Willie Reed (right knee).
Miami ranks 28th in the league in offense, so if Dragic and Waiters end up watching this one, Miami's offense will stall even more. I'm going to lay the touchdown with the Grizzlies in this one.
1* GRIZZLIES
RAY MONOHAN
Memphis -6.5
The Grizzlies welcome in the Heat and this is a simple case of two teams going in opposite directions. The Grizzlies have won 6 straight and have dominated the head to head series with the Heat as of late. Memphis has won 4 of the last 5 against Miami and this is a Heat team that has really struggled.
Miami has dropped back to back games and is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA. They are averaging just 95 points per game, while barely shooting over the 40% mark.
Some trends to note. Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Friday games. Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Lay the points with the much hotter team here. The Grizzlies are getting great play from a lot of different players every night, which is just too much for Miami.
SPORTS WAGERS
Columbus +120 over TAMPA BAY
OT included. The Lightning are coming off a 4-2 victory over the Flyers in a game they trailed 2-1 going to the third. That was the Bolts’ fifth win over their past six games but it’s not as peachy as it appears. Tampa’s victories over that span occurred against Philadelphia (twice), Buffalo, Detroit and the Islanders. In the two victories over Philly, Tampa deserved none of them, as they were badly out-chanced in both. The Bolts may be 13-8 but we would be paying more attention to their 0-4 record against top-10 teams and their 1-6 record against top-16 teams.
Columbus was rolling along with four wins in a row and a eight wins in 11 games and then Seth Jones returned from his injury. What happened next was that the Jackets lost two in a row to Colorado and Calgary and both games took place at Nationwide. Hockey is funny that way but we’re not going to allow a couple of results to influence us here. Columbus outshot Colorado and Calgary, 42-27 and 32-20 respectively. They played two outstanding games and lost them both. The Jackets have allowed 22 shots on net or less in three of five games while Tampa Bay has taken four minor penalties or more in six straight. That bodes well here, as Columbus owns the league’s best power play and they should be able to bury a few behind the slow-footed and grossly overrated Ben Bishop. This is one sweet pooch here.
Vancouver +158 over DALLAS
OT included. The Stars have two victories over their past six games. One victory was over Colorado, 3-2 and the other occurred against Minnesota in OT. In three of Dallas’ last four losses, they allowed five goals against in each one and therein lies the problem. The Stars can give up five at any time. They also have an 8-4 loss to Winnipeg and an earlier 6-5 loss to Colorado. While we like the Stars overall roster, their goaltending is very weak, which means you are always in jeopardy of losing.
These two played on Black Friday last year, also in Dallas and the Stars won 3-2 in OT. Dallas was much better a year ago while the Canucks were worse so we’re willing to roll the dice this year. The Canucks are coming off a 4-1 victory over Arizona. They are in transition but they have done a really good job with their structure and defense. Yes, the Canucks have had a helluva time scoring goals early on but they have scored three or more in five of seven and four or more in three of those. Vancouver offers up nothing but profit potential because their market value is so low and they’re not as weak as most think. They also bring a great attitude to the rink, which counts for something very positive too.
River City Sharps
Air Force +9
Really interesting match up Friday in Colorado Springs as Boise State travels to Air Force in a must win game for the Broncos. Boise comes into this game at 10-1, 6-1 in conference, but are tied with Wyoming for the conference lead and Wyoming owns the tiebreaker. Air Force has had another solid season and comes into this game at 8-3, 4-3 in league play. This match up could be trouble for the visitors as Air Force ranks fourth in FBS with almost 324 rushing yards per game, and Boise’s defense will be missing two of their starting linebackers, both to season ending injuries. These Broncos have not been a bettor’s best friend, especially against the better teams on their schedule. The Broncos are just 1-6 against the number in their last seven vs. teams with a winning record and conversely, Air Force is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four tries vs. teams with a winning record and we like them to stay inside this number today and quite possibly get the outright winner.
Scott Rickenbach
Flyers vs Rangers
Play: Flyers
The Flyers most recent home game was a 3-0 shutout loss (rare!) to the Lighting. Philadelphia made up for that by then going down to Tampa Bay and getting revenge in a 3-1 win. However, the Flyers then lost their next road game (at Florida) and this is their first home game since the ugly loss in Philly. In other words, time to make it up to the home fans and, facing the division rival Rangers, this game is even bigger for Philadelphia. The Flyers are catching a bit of a break here as they are catching New York during a stretch where they've cooled off as the Rangers have lost 3 of their past 4 games and got obliterated by Pittsburgh (6-1) in their most recent game. The Flyers have won 3 of 4 divisional games this season and also have won 3 of 4 games this season when they are off of a loss by a multiple-goal margin. As for the Rangers, they have only won 1 of 3 games this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 4 goals or more and, long-term, New York has lost 240 of 449 (-68.7 net games) when off of a game where they allowed 4 goals or more.
James Manos
Cincinnati at Tulsa
Play: Over 62
Tulsa in a groove on offense averaging 44+ points over their last 8 games and it's no fluke as they bring a talented and balanced offense. Cincinnati is perhaps the most underachieving team in the country and how a team with their offensive talent can produce less than 5 ppg over their last 3 games is mind boggling. The pace of this game should be fast and the Bearcats have to break out of their offensive slump at some point. Even if it's not here the Hurricanes may do all the heavy lifting for us.
Wunderdog
Arkansas @ Missouri
Pick: Under 74
The Missouri Tigers have transformed their offense into a powerhouse, averaging over 500 yards per game. However, that has not translated to the win column, and once again they will end the season with a disappointing year and no hope for a Bowl game. At 7-4 Arkansas has had a pretty good season and have a pretty strong passing attack of their own. I'm not sure if this all translates to 75 total points, however. The SEC seldom sees totals this high, and there have only been 22 totals of 70 points or more, and they have gone decidedly UNDER at 15-7. There have been just eight previous games in the SEC with a total of 74.5 or higher, and the UNDER is 6-2 in those eight games. These teams have the depth and ability to get a needed stop, so I look for this one to play UNDER the total.
Wunderdog
Michigan State vs. Wichita State
Pick: Wichita State -5.5
Michigan State has failed in three attempts vs. strong opponents, losing to Kentucky, Arizona, and Baylor last time out. Michigan State is a young and talented team that in the three losses vs. quality teams, they have failed to shoot better than 43%. Wichita State may not have the power conference label, but they sure are a force over the last six-plus years, as only Kentucky, and Kansas have won more games. The Shockers are 182-40 straight-up since the start of the 2010 season. They have limited five of their six opponents to 36.5% shooting or less on the season, and Michigan State has yet to prove that they can score against a quality defense.