Free Picks for Friday, November 3rd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Dave Cokin
Toronto +1.5
“That was an embarrassing performance by all of us, coaches to players.”
Thats a quote issued by Toronto head coach Dwane Casey following an ugly 129-111 loss at Denver on Wednesday. Needless to say, it doesn’t guarantee things will be any better for the Raptors tonight. But statements like the one issued by Casey are designed to be a catalyst for a more focused effort, and by and large, that’s usually the result when it involves a decent team.
It’s also worth noting that this series has been all Toronto in recent years. The Raptors have covered each of their last four trips to Salt Lake City. In fact, Toronto is riding an impressive 8-0 ATS run when facing the Jazz. Utah warrants respect at home, where they’re already a perfect 5-0 on the season. But I rate the Raptors as the better squad and I expect them to take the court with a determined mindset tonight. Short number, so this is basically pick the winner, and I will opt to side with the Raptors.
Tommy Brunson
Back in 1979 rocker John Stewart had an album called "Bombs Away Dream Babies", and that is how I see this Memphis-Tulsa game playing out tonight in Oklahoma. Points, points, points!
Both teams can score, and both teams choose the "no defense" or the "less is more" approach to the defensive side of the equation.
Memphis just hung 56-points on Tulane in a game that went Over. The Tigers are now Over in their last pair of games, and Over the total in 6 of 8 this year. Backtracking to last season, Memphis is 14-5 Over the total in their last 19 football games.
Tulsa hasn't been as "prolific" in going Over, as they have held Under in their last 3 and 5 of 6 overall, but the Golden Hurricane has played Overs in 5 of their last 6 Friday night games, and the series numbers show Overs in 3 straight and 5 of 7 dating back to 2005.
With the weather looking conducive for points, that's the way I will look.
Memphis-Tulsa "Bombs Away Dream Babies", as they head Over on Friday.
3* MEMPHIS-TULSA OVER
Chris Jordan
My free pick is for tonight is on the Orlando Magic over the Chicago Bulls.
My free play for tonight is from the NBA, where I'm playing the upstart Orlando Magic over the Chicago Bulls.
I gave you the Magic on Monday for a 1,000♦ winner, and told you specifically this team was much better than people think. Finally, the oddsmakers are giving them a little respect, as we see by this rather big number against the Bulls.
The Magic are off to their best start in eight seasons - 6-2 for the first time since the 2009-10 season - and rank second in scoring offense, averaging 114.9 points per game, behind the Golden State Warriors.
Orlando has scored at least 100 in all eight of its games this season, and tonight it will be energized for a Friday night home game against a team that has traditionally been considered an Eastern Conference contender.
We saw the Magic step up in a 114-93 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers, and later in a 114-87 victory over the San Antonio Spurs. Now Orlando returns home after closing a three-game road trip with two wins - over the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies - and will be ready for its homecoming.
Orlando is 3-0 at home, and its 3-point prowess will continue to shine tonight.
Meanwhile, the new-look Bulls are 1-5 for the first time since 2007-08 and have failed to cover six of their last seven visits to Orlando.
Take the home team.
5* MAGIC
Joey Juice
Philly hosts indiana and both teams are hot coming into this matchup with three straight wins vs quality opponents. The Pacers beat the Spurs at home and the Cavaliers on the road, while Philadelphia knocked off the Rockets on the road. Those are all extremely impressive wins.
The bottom line in this game is while mostly the talent is evenly matched, Embiid is the premier big man in this game. Besides, the fact that Turner is still up in the air about returning from his concussion, you have to give a big advantage the 76ers here at home.
A look inside the number shows more evidence to this. Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 day of rest.
Bet the Sixers.
2* PHILADELPHIA
Eric Schroeder
Last night I played an underdog in the NBA and won, as the Los Angeles Lakers covered at the Portland Trail Blazers. My free play for Friday night is on ice, as I like the value underdog price I see with the New Jersey Devils, catching a big number against the Edmonton Oilers.
We're talking about a Devils team that is 9-2-0 on the year, and a spotless 5-0-0 on the highway, and tonight it'll take a crack at an Oilers team that is offensively deprived.
The Oilers (3-7-1) have dropped two in a row, both on home ice, and come in with the worst offensive spreadsheet in the league, with a mere 24 goals in 11 games. That won't bode well against the Jersey boys, who are scoring an average of almost four goals per game.
Bottom line in this one, play the hot hand when the price is right. Take the big underdog.
2* DEVILS
Brandon Lee
Marshall vs. Florida Atlantic
Play: Marshall +7
FAU has impressed here in the first season under head coach Lane Kiffin. I just think they are getting a little too much respect here against a very good Marshall team.
Not to take anything away from FIU, but that was a poor showing by Marshall last week. The 3 turnovers were uncharacteristic of this team, as they only had 3 turnovers in their last 4 games combined. They put up 505 total yards and outgained the Panthers by 104 yards. They also had 29 first downs in the game. That offense should be able to have plenty of success here against a not so great FAU defense. The Owls are 103rd against the run (198.9 ypg) and 72nd against the pass (228.6 ypg).
While the offense figures to move the ball on FAU, Marshall’s defense has the talent to slow down this high-powered Owls offensive attack. Marshall is 24th in the country in total defense (329.7 ypg) and 23rd against the run (124.1 ypg). Note that FAU relies heavily on their running game, as the Owls rank 8th in rushing (295.9 ypg) compared to 100th in passing 186.5 ypg).
Just to touch on the difference in the two defenses. FAU is giving up 438.7 ypg in their 4 conference games and Marshall is allowing a mere 270.7 ypg in their 4 conference games.
The Owls are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 as a home favorite and 0-9 in their last 9 home games off 2 or more games that went OVER the total. The Herd are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 after allowing more than 40 points, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 off a double-digit loss at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record.
Mike Lundin
Toronto +1½
The Toronto Raptors took a 129-111 beating at Denver on Wednesday, and that can't sit right with this talented Raptors side. "That was an embarrassing performance by all of us, from coaches to players," coach Dwane Casey told reporters in Denver. "One thing we said: You've got to come in here and compete and play hard, play a physical game, and we didn't do either one on either end of the floor."
I think the Jazz will pay the price as Toronto looks to bounce when it closes out a six-game road trip at Salt Lake City Friday night. Utah could be due for a clunker after reeling off three straight wins, including a dramatic come-from-behind 112-103 OT win against Portland its last time out.
Raptors are 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings including 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Utah.
Ben Burns
Celtics vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -5½
When the new Big 3 was assembled in Oklahoma City, it figured that Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony would grind teams into the hardwood with relentless offense. But OKC has made its mark with defense, and the Thunder will battle another early-season defensive titan tonight when they take on the Celtics. In fact, Boston and OKC are 1-2 in the league in defense so far this season. The Thunder will be a major test for Boston, whose wins have come against teams with only one major scoring threat (Embiid, Andrich, Antetokounmpo, Porzingis). Look for OKC's three-pronged attack to bring Boston down a notch as the Celtics play the first of a three-games-in-four-days stretch.
Larry Ness
UTEP vs. Middle Tennessee State
Play: Middle Tennessee St -17½
The 0-8 UTEP Miners are at the 3-5 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
The Miners are winless, while Tennessee State has lost two straight, most recently a 38-10 setback to Marshall two weeks ago.
UTEP was without its starting QB in its 31-14 loss to UTSA last weekend. Ryan Metz had been a disaster anyways, but his backup was possibly even worse as Fresno State transfer Zack Greenlee was 8 of 29 for 133 yards, no TD’s and two INT’s.
The Miners rank 130th in the nation in total yards per game (222.5 YPG), while ranked 111th in total yards conceded (451.6 YPG.)
MTSU averages 364.1 YPG and concedes 357 (which is ranked a respectable 36th in the nation.) In the loss to the Herd, QB John Urzua was just 14 of 30 for 220 yards, one TD and one pick.
Urzua suffered a slight concussion, meaning that freshman Kyle Banks could get the call here. Banks has limited playing time, but regardless I still think he has the advantage over Greenlee.
Additionally I’ll point out that UTEP is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 on the road (including 0-3 ATS this year) and only 2-5 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while MTSU is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 at home and interestingly, 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of November.
Both teams have major QB issues, but football involves three phases. UTEP is a mess across the board, while MTSU’s defense should prove to be the difference maker today. Consider laying the points in this one.
Brandon Shively
Nashville vs. Anaheim
Pick: Anaheim -105
The Ducks are at a nice price on Friday night.
Anaheim is at a PK price and this team has played very well at home inside the Honda Center. The Ducks are 31-15 in their last 46 home games.
On top of that, Nashville has been bad on the road this season. The Preds have gone 2-4-1-0 and have scored only 1.43 goals per game in that span. It's not been a fun time on the road for this Nashville team as they simply lack any sort of spark.
Anaheim G John Gibson has posted a solid .927 save percentage this season inside the Honda Center. He's been a key part to this Ducks back line as he rarely allows rebounds in front of net.
This is a generous price on the Ducks as they have the solid edge given how bad Nashville has been on the road, combined with the Ducks home play.
Jim Feist
Chicago at Orlando
Pick: Under 205.5
Chicago looks for its first win on the road this season against three losses. The Bulls are 1-5 overall and 0-3 away, but have covered four of six games. The Magic are 6-2 S/U and a perfect 3-0 S/U at home. Fourth pick Aaron Gordon is playing great, shooting 60.9% from the field over the last five games. The struggling Bulls bright spot is Rookie 7-foot-0 forward Lauri Markkanen, who had a season best 25 points last time and is averaging 17.2 ppg. The Magic have gone UNDER in 14 of their last 20 against the NBA Central. The Bulls are 1-4 O/U their last five overall. In addition, the last four meetings between these teams in Orlando have gone UNDER and the last seven in the series have gone UNDER.
Pat Hawkins
Memphis at Tulsa
Play: Tulsa +12
Points look to be a plenty in this game as both teams have strong offenses both have pretty poor defenses. Tulsa is 5-2 ATS in the seven games in this series. We cannot trust this Memphis defense laying double digit on the road, this is a flat spot ton their schedule as Tulsa's offense should be in a groove.
Wunderdog
Chicago @ Orlando
Pick: Chicago +8.5
Chicago annihilated the Magic the last time these teams met by a 122-75 score near the end of last season and the Bulls have covered the spread three of the last four meetings. Orlando is playing its first home game after a three-game trip, which ended with a 101-99 win at Memphis as Even Fournier scored 22 points and Aaron Gordon finished with 19. The Grizzlies were playing without an injured Mike Conley. Chicago held Miami to 41.0 percent shooting, but was unable to pull out a win losing 97-91 with Lauri Markkanen leading the Bulls with 25 points. Dating to last season, the Magic is just 15-35-1 ATS after an ATS win and 2-8 ATS its last 10 games following any win. Also, Orlando is 8-20-1 ATS its last 29 home contests against teams with losing road records. Look for Chicago to keep this one close and play the Bulls.
Rob Vinciletti
Tulsa at Memphis
Play: Over 79
These two have put up 89 and 102 points in the last 2 meetings and once again both teams can score. Memphis averages 41 points and Tulsa 39. Both teams have a weak and lowly ranked defense. Tulsa has flown over in 3 of 4 as a home dog in this range and 5 of 7 November games. The last 3 here in the series have gone over. Memphis has played over in 25 of 34 off back to back wins and 4 of 5 on the road if the total is 70 or more and 4-1 over as a favorite. Look for another high scoring affair tonight.