Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, November 4th, 2016

Allen Eastman

Texas State (+31.5) over Appalachian St

This game is certainly a mismatch on paper and on the field. Texas State has been blown out of most of its games this year. They have lost three straight games, and their only win since the opener came against Incarnate Word! Texas State lost by 61 points at home against Houston and was blown out by 39 points at Arkansas in Week 2. But I don't think that this game will be that type of blowout. Appalachian State is looking ahead to next week's big Sun Belt showdown with Troy. Both teams are undefeated in conference play, and that is a major game. I think Appalachian State will use this week's game against Texas State to rest some players and heal up for next week's bigger game. Appalachian State is a team that only averages 26.4 points per game. They have the No. 78 total offense in the country and the No. 84 scoring offense. This team wins with defense. I don't know that they will be able to score enough points to get ahead of this spread. App State has only scored over 38 points one time this year. So if Texas State scores just one touchdown then I think they will be able to stay within this number. I will be taking the points in this game.

Rob Vinciletti

San Antonio -3½

The Spurs have revenge on Utah for a 15 point loss at home. The Spurs are 15-3 ats on the road off a 14 point home spread loss vs a team off a win. The Jazz are 1-4 ats as a home dog off a 10+ point spread win scoring 100 or more. For the power system we note that road favorites off a home spread loss by 14 or more scoring 90 or more have covered over 80% vs an opponent off a home favored win. Look for the Spurs to serve up revenge tonight.

Jim Feist

Spurs at Jazz
Pick: Under

These are two of the top defensive teams in the NBA. San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich was dismayed with the poor effort against Utah the last time out, a loss at home. The Spurs are 23-11 under the total against the Western Conference. San Antonio PG Tony Parker (knee) will sit out the contest. Utah is on a 15-7 run under the total. Utah lost 10 straight games in San Antonio before offseason acquisition George Hill scored 22 points to lead the Jazz to a 106-91 victory over the Spurs on Tuesday. Hill had another big game for the Jazz on Wednesday, when he scored 25 points in a 97-81 home victory over the Dallas Mavericks. And the Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Utah.

DAVE COKIN

CENTRAL MICHIGAN AT MIAMI OHIO
PLAY: MIAMI OHIO +3.5

It looks to me like we have a pair of teams heading in opposite directions matching up tonight in the MAC. Central Michigan’s fast 3-0 start that included the highly controversial upset of Oklahoma State is becoming a distant memory. Miami Ohio has suddenly caught fire with three straight conference victories.

Miami was showing signs of breaking through in some early losses. They narrowly missed upsetting Western Kentucky and Cincinnati and might have knocked off Ohio if not for some critical turnovers. The breakthrough finally took place in an 18-14 comeback win against Kent State. The Redhawks have subsequently defeated both Bowling Green and Eastern Michigan.

CMU looked like a serious MAC contender early. The performance at Oklahoma State was impressive regardless of how the game ended, and the Chippewas were flying high when they traveled to Virginia. But the defense got exposed in that game and this team simply has not been the same since that loss.

Central Michigan certainly has plenty of reason to keep playing hard as they are certainly capable of getting to a bowl game, with five wins already tucked away. But if you watched them last week in a home game against Kent State, there is no way to be high on this team presently. The Chips seemed to have taken over that game with a 24-10 lead that included a 22-0 run. But they were unable to contain the Golden Flashes and ended up losing on a field goal at the final gun.

On paper, CMU is the more talented football team. But they are clearly not playing at anywhere near the level they displayed in September and one has to wonder about the hangover effect following a very bad loss last week.

Meanwhile, while there’s not a great deal of talent on hand, especially on offense, the Redhawks have wind in their sails. Shocking as it sounds, Miami could starting thinking about bowl eligibility with a win tonight. They’re at just three wins right now. But with Buffalo and Ball State to complete the regular season, there’s actually a chance the Redhawks could get to six wins if they come through tonight.

I would anticipate a close game. Central Michigan is clearly struggling, but they still own the talent edge. However, I’m more inclined to side with momentum in this clash, so I’ll side with Miami plus the points.

Sean Murphy

San Jose St vs. Boise St
Play: Under 57½

Boise State got pushed around in last week’s surprising 30-28 loss at Wyoming. Look for a positive response from the Broncos here, and in this particular spot, that lends itself to a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers are calling for.

San Jose State has a few nice pieces in place on offense but I expect it will have a tough time getting anything going against a highly-motivated and talented Broncos defense on Friday.

The Spartans know that they’re going to need to step up their game considerably if they’re going to stick around in this one but I don’t believe they’ll have any interest in getting involved in a track meet. All they can hope to do is stretch out their drives on offense and keep the ball out of the hands of the Broncos offense.

San Jose State does have a respectable pass rush and a couple of standouts in the secondary. Familiarity with the Broncos offense could help its cause as well.

The Broncos are looking for a victory to put them back on track as they look toward a potential MWC championship game. While they’re known for their offense, I’m not sure their defense is getting quite enough respect with this high posted total.

Scott Spreitzer

Atlanta at Washington
Pick: Atlanta

Atlanta won its first three games and then had an uncharacteristic defensive lapse in a 123-116 loss to the Lakers on Wednesday. The Hawks still are ranked seventh in the league in scoring defense at 97.2 points per game while Washington is 28th allowing 113.0 points per contest. Dwight Howard appears to have made the right decision by joining the Hawks as he poured in 31 points with 11 rebounds against the Lakers. The Hawks won the first meeting 114-99 on Oct. 27 when Howard grabbed 19 boards and the team shot 50.0 percent. The Wizards are 0-3 both straight up and ATS as coach Scott Brooks struggles to find some chemistry with his new team, which not only is playing little or no defense, but committed 20 turnovers in its 113-103 loss to Toronto. John Wall is doing his part as he scored 33 points with 11 assists on Wednesday, but the Wizards wasted a night when they shot 58.3 percent only to let the Raptors shoot 55.8 percent. The Wizards won't shoot that high a percentage in this matchup as Atlanta bounces back with a good defensive effort.

David Banks

San Jose St @ Boise St
Pick: Boise St -29

With its 30-28 upset loss to Wyoming last week, 24th-ranked Boise State lost more than just one game. For all intents and purposes, the Broncos lost the Mountain West Conference Mountain Division, a shot at the Mountain West title, and a chance at a possible New Year’s Six bowl bid. Still, not all is lost. The Broncos have a very favorable schedule to close the season while Wyoming (6-2) must face West Division leader and defending conference champion San Diego State and New Mexico (5-3).

Boise State’s final quarter of the season starts with a home game against San Jose State, which is 3-6 on the season. The Spartans are coming off a 30-24 win over UNLV last week. Quarterback Kenny Potter threw for 292 yards and a pair of touchdowns to lead San Jose State. This week though, the defense the Spartans will face is much better.

The Spartans are not very good defensively giving up over 35 points per game. San Jose State had a stretch of five games, four of which were losses, where the defense gave up 34 points or more. The Spartans will be hard pressed to slow down a Boise State offense that scores 33.5 points a game. Sophomore QB Brett Rypien leads the offense with 2,359 yards passing and 15 touchdowns. The Broncos have a 1,000-yard rusher in Jeremy McNichols (1,058), and wide receiver Thomas Sperbeck has 55 catches for 890 yards. Boise State can run it and throw it and against a suspect defense at home, expect the Broncos offense to flourish.

Kevin Rogers

Atlanta at Washington
Play: Washington -2

The Wizards have yet to win a game this season at 0-3, including a loss at Atlanta in the season opener. The two Southeast rivals meet up tonight in D.C. as the Hawks are coming off a shocking home loss to the Lakers as double-digit favorites. Dwight Howard has returned to All-Star status for the Hawks, averaging 15.5 ppg and 12.5 rpg. Atlanta is listed as an underdog for the first time this season, as the Hawks are 2-6 ATS in its last eight opportunities as a road underdog. I'll lay the points with the Wizards to win their first game.

Stephen Nover

Dallas +2

The 76ers, Pelicans, Wizards and Mavericks all share one thing in common so far this season - they are all winless. Certainly no surprise with the 76ers. The Pelicans are a lottery team, too. It's the Wizards and Mavericks who are the biggest disappointments through the first nine days of the season.

Dallas is the topic here. The Mavericks are 0-4. To avoid their first 0-5 start in franchise history, they must defeat Portland at home tonight. I see that happening and am going to get involved now that early money has pushed Portland into the favorite's role.

The Trail Blazers finished strong last season. But they haven't been consistent this season losing three of their first five games. Now two of their defeats came to the Clippers and Warriors - no shame in that - but their other defeat occurred to the previously winless Suns. They also had to go overtime to beat Denver, or they would be sitting at 1-4.

Dirk Nowitzki is back after missing two games. He was rusty in his return shooting just 4-of-14 from the field in Dallas' last game, a poorly played blowout road loss to the Jazz two nights ago. The Mavericks have a lot of veteran pride. Harrison Barnes and Deron Williams have been playing well. Dallas has one of the better coaches in Rick Carlisle. There is a tremendous sense of urgency for Dallas here.

Portland has failed to cover during its last four visits to Dallas. The Trail Blazers also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times going against opponents with a losing record.

I see the Mavericks getting the job done here - finally.

ASA

Clippers -5.5

We will play the LA Clippers minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Clippers come into this game off an upset home loss which should have them more focused than normal. Conversely the Grizzlies come into this game off an OT win over the New Orleans Pelicans and may be a little ‘relaxed’. The Clippers have played a tough schedule early on with quality wins over Portland and Utah while the Grizzlies have played a soft schedule against Minnesota (twice), New York, Washington and New Orleans. None of those aforementioned teams made the playoffs last season and combined had a record of 161 and 249. Last regular season the Clippers had the 6th best road differential in the NBA and a road record of 24-17 SU. Memphis was 20th in the league in home court differential last year and the Clippers have won 4 of the last five meetings. With L.A. coming off a HORRIBLE shooting night we expect a bounce back here, especially considering they face the Spurs tomorrow night and can’t afford to go into that contest off 2 straight losses. Memphis was a home dog to the T’Wolves this year and were +3.5 points at home to the Wizards and the Clippers are far superior to both of those teams and laying just a few more points here.

Brandon Lee

Grizzlies +6

I'll take my chances here with Memphis as a decently priced home dog against the Clippers. These two teams don't like each other and these rivalry games tend to be closer than expected and there's typically an edge to the home team. Memphis is 3-2, but one of those losses came with Conley and Gasol not playing and the other was on the road. The Clippers are a great team, but are coming off a ugly showing at home to the Thunder, who I don't think is as good as people think. The offense has had some rough stretches early and I wouldn't be shocked here at all if Memphis won this game outright. Grizzlies are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 meetings with LAC and 6-2 in the last 7 at home.

Ray Monohan

Hawks vs. Wizards
Play: Hawks +1½

The Hawks enter play on Friday at 3-1, as they take on the winless Wizards. Laying the small number with the road team is the way to go here.

Atlanta has looked impressive here early on and already has a win over Washington under their belts. The Hawks took down Washington by 15 points back in the season opener in a game where Washington just couldn't keep up.

This is a nice bounce back spot for the Hawks, given how bad they played against the Lakers. They allowed 72 2nd half points, which is very odd for them, given how good they are defensively.

Some trends to note. Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Atlanta has been far more impressive this season than Washington. Laying just a small number here certainly has some value.

Jack Jones

San Antonio Spurs -4.5

The San Antonio Spurs are going to want revenge from their first loss of the season on Tuesday in a shocking 91-106 loss to the Utah Jazz as 10-point home favorites. Look for them to get that revenge on the road as 4.5-point favorites here three days later.

The Spurs are in a great spot here because not only will they be motivated for revenge, they have also had two days off in between games to rest and prepare for the Jazz. Meanwhile, the Jazz will be playing their 3rd game in four days after having to play Dallas at home on Tuesday.

And that win over the Spurs was a rare one for the Jazz in this series. The Spurs had won the four previous meetings with three of those coming by 18 points or more. I look for them to get back to their dominant ways against the Jazz in this rematch.

San Antonio is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games following an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more. The Jazz are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Alex Smart

Spurs / Jazz Under 186½

Utah which ranks 30th in pace and 2nd in points allowed and 28th in points scored and San Antonio ranked 28th pace and 4th in points allowed and both base their success and failures on how well they play defense , and nothing will change tonight. Utah has allowed 96,88,91, and 81 points in their L/4 games. UTAH is 27-9 UNDER after allowing 85 points or less with an average combined score of 184.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. The 91 point allowance came against the Spurs in a 106-91 win. Im expecting an even more concerted effort defensively from the Jazz again here on home court vs the revenge minded Spurs. Three of the L/4 games in Salt Lake City remained on the low side of the number.