Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, October 14th, 2016

Raphael Esparza

Memphis / Tulane Over 53

Tulane comes into this home game well rested, and I see the Green Wave keeping this game respectable at home. Memphis is a double-digit road favorite in this game, and I see offense being proactive in this game early. Memphis is coming off a win over Temple 34-27 and in the Memphis Tigers' last three games all three of them have gone over the posted total. In Tulane's last two games both of them went over, and for the Green Wave in their last home game they scored 41 points against UL-Lafayette. Last year Tulane traveled to Memphis and lost 41-13 and that game went under, but this year the Tulane offense is much improved and I see them being able to run the ball against the Memphis defense. In Memphis' last 7 games being played on Friday night, 5 of them have gone over, and the Green Wave are 4-1 O/U following a straight up win.

Indian Cowboy

Tulane +12 over Memphis

We roll with Tulane here at home on Friday Night. Memphis is a very good ball club and there is no denying that as they are 4-1 currently. Having said that, we have been on the Tulane bandwagon for quite some time. This team is coached by the former Georgia Southern Head Coach, and they are a very well-coached team. This is a team that is 3-2 currently and they are on the rise. This is a team that just beat Massachusetts 31-24 on the road, beat ULL 41-39 on the road and lost to Navy by just a touchdown (the same Navy team that beat Houston). Early on in the year when this team hung tough against a good Wake Forrest team losing 3-7 on the road, it started to raise eyebrows that this team is starting to make some waves -- no pun intended -- and getting better. Memphis comes off a big win against Temple on National Television and is likely in for a let down here. Plus, this team has Navy on deck. We like Tulane to hang tough and likely lose by single-digits in this contest.

Vernon Croy

San Diego State -17 over Fresno State

This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and I have the Aztecs winning by 21+ points on the road. The Aztecs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing a team with a losing record, and they are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Aztecs are 23-8-2 ATS in their last 33 conference games and they are the superior team here Friday night. The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after covering the spread in their previous game, and just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games played between these two teams, and this one has rout written all over it.

Jimmy Boyd

Mississippi St / BYU Over 58

The value here is on the OVER, as I see these two teams easily combining for 60+ points. Mississippi State’s offense isn’t as bad as it looked against Auburn last week. At the same time, BYU’s defense isn’t as strong as they looked in their win over the Spartans.

Auburn holding the Bulldogs to just 14 points shouldn’t have come as a big surprise. The most points the Tigers have allowed all season is 29 points and that was against Texas A&M. They held Clemson to just 19 points and LSU to only 13.

The key here is that Miss State runs a very similar spread offense to that of Toledo and West Virginia. Two teams that put up some big numbers on the Cougars. The Mountaineers put up 35 points and 481 yards of offense, while the Rockets put up 53 points and 692 yards.

BYU’s defense really benefited from Michigan State’s lack of a passing attack. The Spartans weren’t able to take advantage of a weak Cougars secondary. BYU comes into this game ranked 109th in the country against the pass, giving up 278.7 ypg. Michigan State refused to try an take advantage of this, attempting just 21 passes.

Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald isn’t great, but I’m confident they come out throwing. Just two games ago, Fitzgerald put up 305 yards and 3 scores on UMass. It’s also important to note he’s a threat to run the ball. He’s rushed for 100+ yards twice this season and is averaging 6.1 yards/carry.

You also have to factor in that BYU’s defense might not be as locked in as it was last week. Not only are they coming off a huge road win, but they got another big road game on deck. The Cougars go to Boise State next Thursday. The Broncos are No. 15 in the country and a perfect 5-0 going into Week 7.

On the flip side of all this, I think BYU’s offense will make life miserable for the Bulldogs defense. Mississippi State’s defensive numbers aren’t as good as they look, due to who they have played. Auburn’s the best offense they have played and they aren’t great. Keep in mind the Tigers fumbled on the first 3 possessions of the 2nd half last week or they would have had 50+ points.

You also have to factor in that is a tough spot for the Bulldogs defense. They don’t travel west often and the thin air of Utah takes a lot out of you. I just don’t see Mississippi State’s defense playing well here.

Jim Feist

Mississippi St at BYU
Pick: Under

A high total here but both teams can play tough defense. The BYU Cougars impressed with a 31-14 win at Michigan State on Saturday, allowing 206 total yards. The Cougars have been incredibly balanced thus far, totaling 1,264 passing yards and 1,260 rushing as they ride Williams and senior quarterback Taysom Hill. BYU is 25-9 under the total after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. MSU is on a 4-1 run under the total. Defensive end A.J. Jefferson continues to dominate on the other side of the ball with nine tackles for a loss, good for third in the SEC, and fellow senior Richie Brown recorded 14 tackles - the highest total for a Bulldog since 2012 - in the loss to Auburn. And the Under is 14-4 in the BYU Cougars last 18 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Rob Vinciletti

San Diego St vs. Fresno St
Play: San Diego St -16½

The Aztecs have edges on both sides of the ball, particularly on defense where they are over 140 yards better. They have covered 4 of 5 as a road favorite, 7 straight in week6 games, 8 of 11 vs losing teams and 12 of 16 in conference. Fresno has failed to cover the last 3 at home if the total is 49.5 to 56 and 9 of 12 in week day home games. They are 1-7 ats vs teams with a .700 or better win percentage. Look for San Diego St to coast in this one.

Jack Jones

Mississippi St/BYU Under 58

The oddsmakers have set this number higher than it should be at 58 points. That means they are expecting more than eight touchdowns in this game, and I’m just not seeing it.

Mississippi State has played five games this season, and four of them have seen 52 or fewer combined points. The only exception was a 47-35 win over lowly UMass, which doesn’t play defense. They combined for 42 against South Alabama, 41 against South Carolina, 43 against LSU and 52 against Auburn.

BYU has played six games this season, and four of those have seen 45 or fewer combined points. The exceptions were West Virginia and Toledo, which are two teams known for their high-powered passing offenses. They combined for 34 with Arizona, 39 with Utah, 31 with UCLA and 45 with Michigan State.

The season averages for both teams also show there is value with the UNDER. Mississippi State puts up 25.6 points per game and gives up 26.2, which equates to 51.8 points per game on average. BYU puts up 28.2 points and gives up 25.8 points per game, which equates to an average of 54.0 points per game.

Both teams love to run the football as they both run it more than they pass it. Mississippi State averages 197 rushing yards per game on 38 carries. BYU averages 209 rushing yards per game on 39 carries. That’s going to keep the clock moving as each team prefers to move the ball on the ground.

That also makes this a great matchup for the defenses. The Bulldogs only give up 134 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against teams that average 159 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. The Cougars allow 126 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams that average 178 yards per game and 4.4 per carry.

BYU is 30-8 to the UNDER in its last 38 games versus good rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards per carry. Mississippi State is 29-13 to the UNDER in its last 42 after two more more consecutive ATS losses. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (BYU) – in a game involving two poor passing teams (5.6-6.4 yards/attempt) are 44-14 (75.9%) since 1992.

DAVE COKIN

OILERS VS. FLAMES
PLAY: FLAMES -128

It’s the back end of a home and home set to start the season as Calgary plays host to Edmonton tonight. The Oilers were 7-4 winners on Wednesday evening, but I expect the Flames to rebound this evening.

If you watched the season opener between these two teams, you’ll likely agree with me when I offer that this is game Calgary could and probably should have won. They enjoyed a territorial edge most of the evening, and they even managed to score two shorthanded goals during the second period to temporarily tie things at 3-3.

The big problem for Calgary in the opener was twofold. First, Brian Elliot was absolutely awful. Elliot is off a tremendous 2015-16 campaign, but his first game as a Flame was a disaster. The man they call Moose needs to be much better tonight.

The other issue was on defense, as new coach Glen Gulutzan broke up what is the best Flames blueline pairing and let’s just say it didn’t work out. Look for the Giordano-Brodie combo to be back together on defense tonight.

I’m certainly not going to draw any conclusions from just one game, and I’ll maintain Calgary is a team with a chance to climb some rungs this season. Edmonton has the amazing Connor McDavid, and there is some offensive talent on the team. But I still believe the Oilers are too porous defensively and in the cage to be a playoff contender.

The home team will definitely be out for revenge this evening, and off what I saw on Wednesday evening, I believe they can outplay the Oilers again tonight. Hopefully, there will be some tightening up defensively and Elliot will not do another impression of a sieve. The price is reasonable enough, so I’ll recommend the Flames on the money line tonight.

Bob Harvey

San Diego St vs. Fresno St
Play: Over 52

There should be plenty of points tonight as WAC opponents Fresno State and San Diego state collide.

The Aztecs average 33 points per game away from SD but are alloving 35 ppg. Fresno State is a bit tougher on defense at home (25.5) while the offense is clicking along at a 36 ppg. pace.

Both teams are above average on offense--SDSU is averaging 236.8 yards rushing and 184.0 yards passing so far this season--but both defense's have question mark.

Our computer model has this game landing anywhere between 55 and 60 points and that's more than enough to get the job done.

David Banks

Mississippi St. +7

Mississippi State gets a break from the SEC as the Bulldogs head to Utah to take on BYU on Friday night. Head coach Dan Mullen may find out that the trip isn’t really a break. The Cougars, 3-3, are on a two-game winning streak and coming off a huge 31-14 win at Michigan State. BYU and new head coach Kilani Sitake could very easily be 6-0. The Cougars’ three losses are by a combined seven points.

Sitake has taken BYU back to what made it one of the best programs in the West under legendary head coach LaVell Edwards. The West Coast passing game is led by veteran quarterback Taysom Hill who has passed for 1,255 yards and six touchdowns thus far this season. Running back Jamaal Williams leads the running game with 866 yards and 10 scores. The BYU offense is about as balanced as it can be averaging 210 yards per game on the ground and exactly the same through the air.

Mississippi State has found life after Dak Prescott to be rough. Prescott’s replacement, sophomore Nick Dylan Fitzgerald, may get to the level of his predecessor, but he is not there yet. Fitzgerald is the Bulldogs’ leading passer (784 yards, 7 TDs) and rusher (390 yards). Mississippi State has two losses – LSU and Auburn – in the SEC already and needs every win it can get to become bowl eligible. After winnable games against Kentucky and FCS Samford, the Bulldogs close the season with four consecutive games against ranked SEC opponents: No. 6 Texas A&M, No. 1 Alabama, No. 22 Arkansas, and No. 12 Ole Miss.

SPORTS WAGERS

ALCS Series Bet - CLEVELAND +130 over Toronto

The Red Sox were the best team in the American League during the regular season and the Rangers had the best record. If the idea was to have a series that best encapsulated the 2016 season on the junior circuit, though, this is about the best we could have hoped for. Both the Blue Jays and the Indians bear the marks of a long season, and both have holes that would be notable and somewhat glaring even if they’d had perfect health. The two best teams left in the postseason, by a wide margin, are playing for the National League pennant. This has been an odd, sloppy slugfest of a season in the AL, and these are the perfect clubs to finish it off.

The Blue Jays’ offense was a monumental disappointment for much of this season. The team that bashed opponents’ brains in throughout 2015, and especially in the second half, finished 22nd in team aveage in 2016, despite more or less the same lineup. From September 1 on, they batted a collective .236/.334/.358, which is how they went from AL East favorites on Labor Day to scrapping for the right to play in the Wild Card game by the time the calendar turned to October. In four postseason games, though, they’ve scorched the weak Baltimore and Texas pitching staffs to the tune of 19 extra-base hits (10 of them over the fence), reminding everyone how dangerous they can be.

The bruising playoff Jays are probably closer to the real Jays than the punchless ones who slogged through September, but it’s worth noting that the Indians are unlikely to be so easily knocked around the park—even given their injury-thinned roster. There’s a real disadvantage in having six right-handed hitters at the top of the lineup, and perhaps especially so against the Indians: Corey Kluber (.209 oppBA allowed against RHB in 2016), Andrew Miller (.169), Cody Allen (.171), Dan Otero (.192), and Bryan Shaw (.220) are Death on Righties, and could pitch to those six great right-handed hitters in 70 percent of their plate appearances during this series.

The Indians don’t have that kind of platoon vulnerability problem. Their best lineup has four righties, three lefties, and two switch-hitters in it, and the four guys who largely make or break the offense (the top four in the lineup above) go switch-left-switch-right. On the other hand, Cleveland’s lineup is weaker at almost every spot, in a head-to-head sense, which is why they finished 23rd in team average this season. They might be a bit better than that in terms of true talent, but the chance that these hitters will take over the series is considerably smaller than the chance that Toronto’s will do the same. The X-factor: no other playoff team runs like Cleveland. They steal a lot of bases at one of the league’s best success rates, and take the extra base pretty well, too.

Benches:

Both teams will generally hope they don’t have to lean on anyone coming off the bench to make a big contribution. Devon Travis’ knee injury could force Darwin Barney into action, and Brandon Guyer has real utility as a pinch-hitter if the Jays bring on one of their lefty relievers to face Naquin or Lonnie Chisenhall. Upton is 31 now, but still has defensive value at the corner outfield spots, and the one offensive skill that has seemed to come with him to Toronto since they traded for him in July is a proclivity for mashing southpaw pitching. The rest of the group comprises guys who have shown utility in the past, but rarely (or never) pieced it together. Coco Crisp doesn’t quite fit that bill, but it describes him now: he’s a broken-down hitter and was caught five times in 15 steal attempts this season.

Starting pitching:

First observation: sweeping the Red Sox was huge for the Indians. Doing so allows Kluber to start Game 1, and on six days’ rest. Kluber matches up well with Toronto, and gets to pitch against them first in Cleveland instead of in Toronto. If he can give them the kind of innings they’re hoping for, he can also generate a trickle-down effect: using Miller and Allen in traditional roles in Game 1 would make it easier to stretch them in Game 2, and avoiding using Otero, Shaw, and the rest would keep them fresh (and improve their expected performance in later games).

Next observation: xERA thinks the Jays are doing it backward when it comes to their starters, putting their two lesser lights at the front of the line for potential second starts in the set. Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ are precisely the sorts of pitchers whose skills might not be fully captured even by advanced pitching value metrics, but Stroman and Sanchez probably are genuinely better. On the other hand, taking park factors into account again, Cleveland is the best left-handed hitter’s park in baseball. Estrada (oppBA .215) and Happ (.219) are much better equipped to keep the Tribe’s left-handed bats under wraps in those first two games than are Sanchez (.236) and Stroman (.255). That said, you all know our position on Estrada. His low oppBA is largely luck-driven and has been for two years running. Cleveland will put the ball in play on Marco and we’re suggesting that John Gibbons should have left well-enough alone and stuck with the rotation order. In that regard, Stroman was next man up.

On paper, the Jays’ rotation is much deeper than Cleveland’s. That’s not what we’d have guessed in August, when this matchup seemed likely but figured to include Carlos Carrasco and/or Danny Salazar, and didn’t figure to include Sanchez (at least as a starter), but it’s where we are. Tomlin has a big reverse split that won’t help him at all in this series. Clevinger is a fringy playoff starter, at best. If Kluber and Bauer falter, Terry Francona is going to be asking his relief aces to run all the way through the lineup a time or two again.

Relief Pitchers (IP, ERA, xERA)

BLUE JAYS

RHP Roberto Osuna (74.0, 2.68, 3.52)
RHP Jason Grilli (59.0, 4.12, 4.04)
RHP Joseph Biagini (67.2, 3.06, 3.86)
LHP Brett Cecil (36.2, 3.93, 3.32)
LHP Aaron Loup (14.1, 5.02, 4.41)
RHP Ryan Tepera (18.1, 2.95, 4.11)
RHP Danny Barnes (13.2, 3.95, 4.37)
RHP Scott Feldman (77.0, 3.97, 4.42)

INDIANS

RHP Cody Allen (68.0, 2.51, 2.50)
RHP Cody Allen (68.0, 2.51, 2.50)
LHP Andrew Miller (74.1, 1.45, 1.22)
RHP Dan Otero (70.1, 1.53, 3.06)
RHP Bryan Shaw (66.2, 3.24, 3.71)
RHP Zach McAllister (52.1, 3.44, 4.92)
RHP Cody Anderson (60.2, 6.68, 4.73)
LHP Kyle Crockett (16.0, 5.06, 3.81)
RHP Jeff Manship (43.1, 3.12, 4.70)

These lists assume that Francisco Liriano and Joaquin Benoit remain unavailable to the Blue Jays and that Terry Francona will trade the right to carry a third catcher for an extra arm, given that he’s staring at a longer and more taxing series.

Here, the Indians have a clear advantage. Now, their challenge will be to avail themselves of it. Francona’s brilliant, heavy use of Allen, Miller, and Shaw turned the ALDS in his team’s favor. It won’t be as easy to do so this time around. The series doesn’t promise as many open days. There will be no rainouts through at least the first five games of this set. As we discussed earlier, the dominance of the top four Cleveland relievers over right-handed hitters is a huge potential factor, but the starting pitchers will have to keep them in it long enough to make that matter.

On the Toronto side, you can pretty well read the innings totals for the second half of their projected bullpen and see the story. There are four pitchers John Gibbons can truly trust, and if his starters ever fail to get him far enough into a game to ride those guys, the contest goes up for grabs. On the other hand, the stability of the Toronto rotation might actually allow Gibbons not to have to reach past the big four. If Liriano and Benoit end up healthy enough to join the roster, it’s anyone’s guess how effective they could be, but they’d help to even the scales.

Managers:

Francona allows his speedy team to be aggressive on the bases. The Indians will steal, and even double-steal, when the opportunity presents itself. Few AL managers pinch-hit more liberally than did Francona this season; Guyer and Naquin will fill that role if the matchup opportunity arises. Obviously, too, one of the big storylines in this series will be whether and to what extent Francona can continue to get the most out of his best pitchers. In Games 3 and 4 in Toronto, with relatively weak pitchers on the mound, he needs to be proactive and quick with the hook.

Gibbons hasn’t had the kind of depth to pinch-hit much, but he will use pinch-runners (Barney and Upton are strong options to have on hand) when he feels they can make an impact. He’s also notable for hardly ever handing out intentional walks. If a big at-bat is coming up and he has an unfortunate matchup locked in, he might still elect to ask his pitcher to make a big pitch and get a big out. It’s both fun to watch, and often the right strategic thing to do.

Defense:

Both teams are above average in the field. It could come down to which pitching staff can better induce the batted balls that match their fielders’ strengths. The Indians’ infield is stellar, on both ground balls and low or short liners. Their outfield, though, is porous, which could be a problem against the fly ball-oriented Toronto lineup. (Of course, the name of the game is really just to keep those fly balls in the park, a tall enough task given who these Jays hitters are.)

Toronto’s defense is more balanced, with Kevin Pillar ensuring that fans of the batting team learn to hold their breath a bit when a promising fly ball leaves their player’s lumber. The Indians are good at putting the ball in play, so they will force the Jays to play well in the field. Toronto’s is a somewhat aged and banged-up unit, so that could pose problems.

The old adage is that if you’re going to bet, it’s best to do it on the better players. Those belong, in this matchup, to the Blue Jays. They’re deeper in both the rotation and the lineup, and won’t have to stretch players too terribly beyond their usual roles. They can be downright dominant when things are clicking, as we saw at times even during their inconsistent regular season. However, Francona is probably a better manager, and definitely has shinier buttons to press (Miller! Allen! Speed and Steals!), and that could turn the tide. So could Cleveland’s home-field advantage although it seems like Rogers Centre is an unmatched environmental advantage in these playoffs, an intimidating madhouse that also happens to accentuate some of the things the Jays do well. A fully healthy Cleveland team, or one that successfully landed Jonathan Lucroy back in July would have been favored in this series. This version, up against a fresher and more balanced Toronto club, is not and probably shouldn’t be. However, we have the Jays in the World Series, so this is a hedge of sorts. There is also a great chance that the Tribe could take the first two games of this series, or even Game 1, at which point we’ll have other options. To open up, however, we’ll play the Indians to win the series but trust we’ll have more invested as the series moves along. Play along if you like. It's a real close series that shoud provide oportunities and played right, there is money to be made.

SPORTS WAGERS

Edmonton +116 over CALGARY

OT included. We played the Flames in Edmonton to start the year and while Calgary outshot them 41-27 and deserved a better fate than a 7-4 loss, we are not betting a similar game will take place here with different results. Fact is, Edmonton has the best player on the ice and it’s not close. Fact is, the Oilers didn’t play great and scored seven times. Fact is, the same issues that plagued the Flames last year were on full display again in their first game of the season. Fact is, the Flames outplayed the Oilers and lost by three goals and chances are they are not going to outplay or outshoot them by that wide of a margin again.

It’s only one game but Edmonton has to be feeling pretty good about what transpired on the ice. Milan Lucic was not a good fit on the top line but it still produced. Adam Larsson on defense had a decent debut and figures to get even better. A couple of other Oilers defensemen stepped up too. Keep your eye on defenseman Darnell Nurse, a potential sleeper that could have a sound year on that Oilers blue-line. Cam Talbot was not great in net but he was far superior to Brian Elliott. Speaking of Elliott, a game like does not instill confidence. Take Elliott’s age and shaky start and put him in front of a Canadian crowd and media, where everything is scrutinized to the bone and it could be rather unsettling. Give us the 1-0 squad in a very good state of mind versus the 0-1 team that had very shaky goaltending in the opener, a problem that kept them on their heels all of last year and could easily have the same effect tonight. Either way, Edmonton has a great chance to get off to a 2-0 start.

SPORTS WAGERS

B.C. LIONS -5 over Winnipeg

The Blue Bombers were lucky to escape Week 16 with a 37-35 home win over the Lions. That score is very misleading, as Winnipeg was the beneficiary of a review blunder on a clear Andrew Harris fumble deep in their own territory late in the game. The Bombers jumped out to a big early 24-3 lead early in the second quarter and then hit the wall, as the Lions dominated the play the rest of the way. The Bombers were very average offensively in game one of this home and home and now they have to head out to B.C. Place to face a vastly superior opponent that is in a foul mood. The Lions foul mood stems from the fact that they feel they got cheated last week and that’s because they did.

B.C. only has itself to blame for blowing last week’s game in Winnipeg. The Lions shot themselves in the foot late in the fourth quarter with a chance to win it and that was before the blown fumble call. On a crucial 3rd and 1, B.C. chose a sweep play instead of running straight ahead in a league where the defensive line must play a yard off the ball. Jonathan Jennings threw for 422 yards but his two interceptions outweighed an otherwise impressive aerial attack.

It’s hard to beat a team two weeks in a row, especially when that team is superior, thus the Bombers are really behind the eight ball here. B.C. Place is a tough place to play under normal circumstances but this one is anything but. While Winnipeg has been on a nice run since Matt Nichols took over, we’re not ready to back them in a tough road game like this. These teams are tied for second in the West Division but the Lions have a game in hand. If B.C. wins here, they will very likely host the West Semi-Final, a much better scenario than having to travel back to Winnipeg in November. Many of Winnipeg’s victories this year were Houdini acts including last week’s win and now the Bombers are getting a bit too much credit for taking down a B.C. team that was sleeping in the first quarter. We promise they won’t be sleeping in this one. Instead, the Lions have a score to settle to correct a wrong and the Bombers will play the price. This one is high on our recommendation list.

Brandon Lee

San Diego State -17

I have no problem laying this big number on the road with the Aztecs against a bad Fresno State team. You have to pick your spots taking road favorites in these weekday games and this is one I really like. I just don't see the Bulldogs' fans getting up for this game. Their team is 1-5 and has shown no signs of turning this thing around. This is also a great matchup for San Diego State. The Aztecs have the No. 22 ranked rushing offense in the country, averaging 236.8 ypg. A big part of that is star running back Donnel Pumphrey, who has already rushed for 891 yards. Pumphrey and the Aztecs will be facing a Bulldogs defense that ranks a miserable 126th against the run, allowing 272.0 ypg. On the flip side of things, San Diego State's defense is ranked 15th in the country in total defense and will be facing a Fresno State offense that ranks a mere 96th. Keep in mind the Aztecs were embarrassed in their last road game, losing 24-42 as a 19.5-point favorite at South Alabama. That should have them 100% locked in on not only winning this game but doing so in blowout fashion.