Ray Monohan
Fresno State +17
The Bulldogs get set to welcome in the San Diego State Aztecs on Friday night and the home team plus the points has value. Fresno State is just 1-5 on the season, but they've put up a much better fight at home.
They've gone 1-0 ATS at home (1 game not lined), and in the 2 games they've played they've averaged 36.0 points per game. The Aztecs are a run first team, which means they'll certainly be burning some clock tonight. The same goes with Fresno State.
They won't take many home run shots and like to methodically move the ball down the field. Those both play in favor of the Bulldogs and the points here.
Some trends to consider. Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Fresno State plays well on Fridays. Given that and the 17 point spread, this is a nice number.
Sean Murphy
Edmonton at Calgary
Play: Calgary -128
The Oilers got the better of the Flames in the front half of their season-opening home-and-home series but I look for Calgary to answer back in its home opener on Friday night.
Edmonton had little trouble getting up for its opener. Keep in mind, the Oilers weren't just playing their first game of the season, or even their first home game, but they were opening a brand new arena. It was a big night in Edmonton to be sure and the Oilers brought their 'A' game, scoring early in the first period and never looking back in a wild 7-4 victory.
Here, I look for a response from the Flames - a team that I don't believe will be nearly as bad as some believe.
Just two years ago, Calgary was one of the league's surprise teams, not only reaching the postseason but winning a series before bowing out to the Ducks in the second round. Last season, the Flames fell well short of expectations and like every other Canadian NHL team, missed the playoffs. I'm confident we'll see them get back in contention here in 2016-17.
Calgary put forth an undisciplined, sloppy effort on Wednesday night in Edmonton, giving the Oilers six power play opportunities and allowing seven goals in all.
It won't be difficult to rally the troops on Friday night. Look for Johnny Gaudreau to lead the offensive charge as the Flames pick up their first victory of the season.
Bob Harvey
San Diego St vs. Fresno St
Play: Over 52
There should be plenty of points tonight as WAC opponents Fresno State and San Diego state collide.
The Aztecs average 33 points per game away from SD but are alloving 35 ppg. Fresno State is a bit tougher on defense at home (25.5) while the offense is clicking along at a 36 ppg. pace.
Both teams are above average on offense--SDSU is averaging 236.8 yards rushing and 184.0 yards passing so far this season--but both defense's have question mark.
Our computer model has this game landing anywhere between 55 and 60 points and that's more than enough to get the job done.
Dave Price
Memphis -11
This game between Memphis and Tulane is certainly a mismatch in class. Memphis is a legitimate AAC title contender once again this season. It is off to a 4-1 start this season with its only loss coming on the road against Ole Miss from the SEC. The Tigers are scoring 43.4 points per game and only giving up 20.4, outscoring opponents by 23.0 points per contest. Tulane is 3-2 but has benefited from an easy schedule as the 3 wins have come against Southern, LA Lafayette and UMass. Memphis is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last 9 meetings with Tulane. A whopping 8 of those wins have come by 14 points or more.
Harry Bondi
MISSISSIPPI STATE +7 over BYU
Mississippi State comes in off a disastrous blowout loss to Auburn last week, but that provides us some value here this week and put the Bulldogs in a profitable situation. Not only has MSU won and covered five straight games off a home loss, but it has also won 30 of its last 36 games against non-conference foes, meaning Dan Mullen’s squad typically takes care of business when not taking on a felllow SEC team. BYU, meanwhile, has lost five in a row to the SEC and comes in off an absolute brutal six-game strecth that has included road trips to Maryland, Utah and Michigan State. With a huge game on deck against Boise State next week, this looks like a flat spot for the Cougars, who have covered just 12 of their last 29 games as a home chalk of seven points or less.
Drew Martin
Utah at Oregon St
Play: Under 40
The biggest totals move on the board and it appears justified as the weather in Corvallis, Oregon is projected to be hurricane-esque on Saturday. Current weather reports are not only calling for heavy rain but winds of 30-40 MPH. And it's important to note that Reser Stadium is not enclosed meaning that wind will have little issue entering the stadium. The forward pass should be all but nonexistent in this contest.
Oregon State shows a strong statistical profile running the football but the stats are heavily skewed due to games against FCS Idaho State and defensively inept Cal. The Beavers racked up 70% of their seasonal yardage (730 yards) in those two games. In their three contests against Minnesota, Boise State, and Colorado, OSU averaged a measly 3.0 ypc. Utah grades out as above average against the run having allowed just over 4.0 ypc. In last year's meeting, the Utes held the Beavers to 108 yards on the ground en route to a 27-12 victory.
Utah has somewhat changed its stripes this season, relying more on the pass than the run in terms of effectively moving the football. The main reason is injuries as five running backs are listed as either out, doubtful, or questionable on the injury report. They have still been able to put up yardage on the ground but most of it is due to sheer volume (43.6 attempts per game) rather than success (4.1 ypc).
As always, inclement weather can lead to miscues and non-traditional touchdowns. But you can still expect points to be at a premium given the situation. Play it under.
Bruce Marshall
San Diego St vs. Fresno St
Play: San Diego St -16.5
Unless anti-Fresno money shows up at Vegas sports books and moves price too far in SDSU's direction, have little interest in sagging Bulldogs and under-fire HC DeRuyter, whose 126th-ranked rush "D" appears a very bad matchup vs. rampaging Aztec RB Pumphrey (891 YR). Rocky Long's bunch 11-1 vs. line last 12 in MW reg.-season play. P
Bob Balfe
Blue Jays/Indians Over 7.5
The Blue Jays bats have been on fire these playoffs and just like last year this team has a chance to get to the World Series, but as the playoffs get deeper hot hitting teams at some point have to win with pitching too. Cleveland has been so impressive in the bottom of their order this postseason that no out is an easy out. Toronto might beat teams with the long ball, but it’s going to be very tough to get 3 outs each inning against this Indians lineup. I think both teams put up a good amount of runs today.
Rocketman
Edmonton @ Calgary
Play: Calgary -128
The Edmonton Oilers travel to Calgary to take on the Flames on Friday night. Edmonton is 1-0 SU overall this year while Calgary comes in with an 0-1 SU overall record on the season. Edmonton is 14-45 SU last 3 years against division opponents. These two teams met in their opener this year as Edmonton won 7-4 in Edmonton. Feel like a little revenge will be happening here tonight. Calgary is 8-3 SU overall vs Edmonton the past 3 years including winning 4 out of 5 at home. We'll recommend a small play on Calgary tonight!
ASA
Toronto Blue Jays +125
The Indians will have Corey Kluber toeing the rubber tonight at Progressive Field and he is only 1-3 with an ugly 5.34 ERA in his five career starts against the Blue Jays. Kluber has particularly struggled in recent meetings with 11 earned runs allowed in 15 innings over his last 3 starts against Toronto. The Blue Jays will counter with Marco Estrada and Toronto has gone 2-0 in his two career starts against the Tribe. Estrada has given up only 10 hits in 12 innings over his two starts against the Indians. The Blue Jays not only have the starting pitching edge here, they also have an edge in terms of recent playoff experience. For Cleveland, it has been awhile and they will now be tested after their sweep of the slumping Red Sox in the ALDS. Keep in mind, Boston ended up losing 8 of their last 9 games to finish their season and that means too much weight should not be put into that Cleveland sweep. The Blue Jays, however, knocked off the Rangers who were 20-11 through September 30th and were arguably the most consistent top team throughout the regular season. With the pitching edge and the line value on the underdog, we’ll grab the roadie in this one. Bet the BLUE JAYS on the money line in Game 1 of the ALCS Friday!
Brad Wilton
The Aztecs rebounded from their only loss - a strange trip to South Alabama - with a home win and cover over UNLV, 26-7.
That is the same Rebels team that dumped Fresno State, 45-20 in Las Vegas. That means that the Bulldogs have won just once this season, and that win came against Sacramento State!
Fresno had won 3 in a row in this series prior to last year's 21-7 loss at San Diego, and speaking of "prior to", the Aztecs had won 6 in a row on the road with the average margin of victory coming by almost 19 points per game. Also consider the fact that San Diego State is 11-1 against the spread their last 12 in conference play during the regular season.
Throw in the Bulldogs poor 5-11 spread mark their last 16 lined games - including their loss at San Diego State last season - and you have the makings for another dominating road win and cover for the 'Tecs.
Lay it with San Diego State.
4* SAN DIEGO STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Indians in Game One of the A.L.C.S. over the Blue Jays.
Both teams made quick work of their opening round foes, as the Tribe swept the Red Sox, while the Jays dispatched the Rangers once again in 3 straight.
The regular season meetings showed the Indians with the slight 4-3 edge, with tonight's home starter Corey Kluber making a pair of starts. He was shelled in this first start against Toronto, but was also on the hill in a 3-2 Indians win in the last season series meeting on August 21st.
Kluber is 19-9 for the year, and did blank Boston over 7 scoreless innings with just 3 hits allowed in Game Two of the division series with the Red Sox.
Marco Estrada counters and pitched strong ball in his lone start against Texas, allowing just 1 run in his 8-plus innings of work.
It is the second straight season for the Blue Jays in the Championship Series, while the Indians haven't gone this far in quite a long span, as their last trip to the Fall Classic comes back in 1997.
I expect a long series between these evenly matched clubs, but I like the Indians at home to notch the Game One win.
2* CLEVELAND
OC Dooley
San Diego St / Fresno St Under 52
At most offshore locations this total opened "up" at the 57 point plateau and the mere fact that we have seen a significant drop in that figure speaks volumes. For those who have dealt with Fresno State totals the past couple of years you know they have constantly been a great "over" play exceeding the spot 12 of the last 16 times they have taken the field while the defense during that stretch has been shredded to the tune of 37 points per game allowed. The reason for tonight's totals dip has to do in part with RAIN in the forecast as Northern California is going to feel the effects of a massive pacific storm that is slated to pound the states of Washington and Oregon. In the past three years when facing "losing" teams San Diego State has gone 10-2 UNDER the total with the defense holding the opposition on average to just 19 points per pop