Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Friday, October 21st, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Raphael Esparza
San Jose State (+23.5) over San Diego State
This game puzzled me when the numbers were posted late Sunday night and I completely shocked that this number hasn't moved. San Diego St is the better team but the Aztecs have had trouble covering big numbers and in their last three games the Aztecs have covered only one of those games. San Jose St is coming off a big win at home against Nevada 14-10 and the Spartans have covered two out of their last three games. Expect San Diego St to run the ball all night and if the Spartans can get double-digit points on the road they should be able to cover this game. Still not sold on San Diego St as they have played a weak schedule and I still can't get over the loss to South Alabama earlier in the month. San Jose St is 5-2 ATS in the month of October and the Aztecs are 1-4 ATS after scoring less than 20 points in their last game.
Indian Cowboy
Oregon +3 over California
Has Oregon really fallen off the wagon that much? This is still a very good team that has run into a tough schedule this year. After starting the season 2-0 this year they have faced a very difficult Pac-12 schedule where each team has significantly gotten better. This team has ended up facing the likes of Washington, who routed them 21-70 in the last game, and that will be massive motivation for this team to bounce-back here as they will show a lot of pride. This team lost 33-51 to Washington State, 38-41 to Colorado and 32-35 to Nebraska on the road, which is what started the downturn. We like Oregon to show a lot of pride here and to bounce-back and to win outright at California. Note, Cal also has USC on deck as well and this is a good opportunity for Oregon to truly bounce back after a horrid performance last game.
Vernon Croy
South Florida (-6.5) over Temple
This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems, and I have the Bulls winning big on the road Friday night. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after putting up more than 40 points in their previous game, and Temple has no answer for this potent offense. The Bulls are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games when favored, and they have averaged 45 ppg on the road this season. Temple has a fairly good defense, but they have really not been tested by anyone like this Bulls offense this season. The Bulls have played much tougher opponents this season, and I look for it to show in this game. Play South Florida ATS with confidence.
Raphael Esparza
San Jose State (+23.5) over San Diego State
This game puzzled me when the numbers were posted late Sunday night and I completely shocked that this number hasn't moved. San Diego St is the better team but the Aztecs have had trouble covering big numbers and in their last three games the Aztecs have covered only one of those games. San Jose St is coming off a big win at home against Nevada 14-10 and the Spartans have covered two out of their last three games. Expect San Diego St to run the ball all night and if the Spartans can get double-digit points on the road they should be able to cover this game. Still not sold on San Diego St as they have played a weak schedule and I still can't get over the loss to South Alabama earlier in the month. San Jose St is 5-2 ATS in the month of October and the Aztecs are 1-4 ATS after scoring less than 20 points in their last game.
Wunderdog
South Florida @ Temple
Pick: Under 60
South Florida has been one of the strongest offensive teams in the AAC this season. This week, however, they are coming off a very physical game vs. UConn, and this will also be their eighth straight week playing - this time they have to do it on short rest. Temple is not nearly the offense they were last season and the numbers are somewhat misleading as they have faced SMU, Stony Brook, and Charlotte where they averaged 43.7 points per game. They have yet to top 27 points against teams that are more on their level. The best part of the South Florida offense is running the ball, but that is the best part of the Temple team, is stopping the run, as they allow just 3.7 yards per carry on the season. i think there will be a lot of movement between the 20s in this contest. Temple owns a record of 7-0 to the UNDER as a home dog the past three years, and 15-3 to the UNDER if they are getting fewer than seven, dating all the way back to 1992! South Florida now 53-32 to the UNDER when following a conference game in their last 85.
Jim Feist
San Jose St at San Diego St
Pick: Over
San Jose averages 375 yards per game but the defense struggled on the road where they are 5-2 over the total. On the road, the Spartans are averaging 20.3 scoring, and holding teams to 45.7 points scored on defense. The Over is 9-4 in Spartans last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The San Diego State Aztecs are ranked 65 on offense, averaging 411.3 yards per game. The Aztecs are averaging 246.0 yards rushing and 165.3 yards passing so far this season. SDSU is 5-2 over the total after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
DAVE COKIN
SOUTH FLORIDA AT TEMPLE
PLAY: TEMPLE +7
South Florida has been good to me this season. I was very high on this team at end of the 2015 campaign and expected big things for the Bulls this year. They certainly haven’t disappointed with a 6-1 slate, and there was no disgrace in the one loss to Florida State.
Temple projected to decline a bit off their sensational 2015 season, and at 4-3 the Owls are indeed down a bit from last year. But Matt Rhule’s team is hanging in there and I think it’s fair to offer they’re turning out to be a decent team. Throw out that opening week disaster against Army, and they’ve really only been outplayed just one other time.
The stats on this game are interesting. There is no question USF has a big edge on offense. The Bulls are very explosive and they’re really close to being a Top 25 squad when they’ve got the football. The defense is another story, though. It’s not an awful stop unit, and teams that run the fast offense will sometimes end up with somewhat skewed defensive stats. But it’s not a great defense and I think Temple has a decent chance to do some damage tonight.
The edge I like is the Temple defense. The Owls are not a cinch to throw on, and the play in the trenches is definitely getting better. I don’t see them shutting down the prolific Bulls, but I believe they can at least contain Quinton Flowers and company to some extent.
It’s no secret that I like underdogs that have a defensive advantage. I also like what I’m seeing when breaking down the models on this game, which have South Florida winning but not by very much. I do have some concerns about the injury situation in the Owls secondary as Sean Chandler remains out and it looks like Nate Jones will also miss this game.
Ideally, I wanted a bit more than I’m getting at the current tag to make the play on Temple. But I definitely lean to the Owls this evening at the current +7, and I’ll make them today’s free play.
Rob Vinciletti
Blackhawks vs. Blue Jackets
Play: Over 5½
In the series 34 of 50 have played over. Chicago has gone over in their last 7 games and 3 of their first 4 this year have had at least 5 goals scored. Columbus looks for their first win and has flown over in 9 of the last 11 with 3 or more days rest. Look for this game to play over.
Sean Murphy
Blackhawks vs. Blue Jackets
Play: Blue Jackets +127
Few will give the Blue Jackets much of a chance in this game as they're off to an 0-2 start while the Blackhawks are rolling off back-to-back wins, outscoring the opposition 12-7 in those two games.However, I'm expecting a strong effort from the Jackets on home ice, knowing that they'll need to pick up a win here or things could get ugly, with each of their next four games coming on the road against Western Conference opposition.
Chicago certainly didn't look invincible in its lone previous road game, suffering a 3-2 loss in Nashville. While it has picked up back-to-back wins, it remains just an even 2-2 on the season so far.
Also note that the Blue Jackets have taken three of the last four meetings in this series. The one game the Blackhawks won over that stretch came at home as a -240 favorite.
Columbus has been in each of its first two games, collapsing in the third period against the Bruins and falling just short following a late rally against the Sharks. I look for them to do a better job of finishing on Friday night.
Jack Jones
California -3
I simply trust the Cal Golden Bears more here. They have shown me enough to know that they are the better team in this matchup. With wins over the likes of Utah and Texas at home, they certainly have proven they are capable of beating quality teams on their home turf.
I think California comes in undervalued due to its 44-47 loss at Oregon State as 13.5-point favorites. But the Golden Bears caught a bad break when Davis Webb hurt his hand early in that contest, and finished just 23 of 44 passing for 113 yards with an interception. The injury clearly had an effect on him, but he’s fully healthy now that he’s had nearly two weeks off in between games.
I’m also certain that Oregon has its worst team in a long time in 2016. The Ducks are just 2-4 with their only wins coming at home against UC Davis and Virginia. But when they have taken a step up in competition in their last four games, they have been overmatched.
They did suffer a narrow road loss 32-35 at Nebraska and a slim 38-41 home loss to Colorado, but their last two games have really shown their true colors. The Ducks were outgained by 235 yards in a 33-51 loss at Washington State and by 273 yards in an ugly 21-70 home loss to Washington.
This four-game losing streak has forced head coach Mark Helfrich, who is clearly on his hot seat, to question his quarterback play. He switched from Dakota Prukop to Justin Herbert for the Washington game. It was an interesting move considering Prukop was completing 66.2 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and two interceptions before getting demoted. Either way, having a QB controversy is not good for the program.
The real problem for the Ducks is on defense, where they just can’t stop anyone. They are giving up 41.8 points, 522.7 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season. The Golden Bears have only been slightly better on that side of the ball, but I trust them to get more stops than Oregon in this game.
Back to Davis Webb, who is having an excellent season and is clearly an NFL-caliber starter. He is completing 60.8 percent of his passes for 2,256 yards with 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions. But the Golden Bears are far from one-dimensional as they’re averaging 152 rushing yards and 4.8 per carry. This balance has led to the offense putting up 42.3 points and 530.2 yards per game against opponents that only allow 29.3 points and 415 yards per game.
Cal is going to be highly motivated to end a seven-game losing streak to Oregon in this series. This is its best chance to beat the Ducks in quite some time, and just like Washington ended its 12-game skid to Oregon, I expect the Golden Bears to do the same at home Friday night. Cal has won both of its home games this season while Oregon has lost both of its road contests.
Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OREGON) – off a home loss by 14 or more points are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Ducks are the only winless team ATS this season and are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Golden Bears are 7-1 ATS after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Bob Harvey
South Florida vs. Temple
Play: South Florida -6½
USF (6-1, 5-2 ATS, 3-0AAC) boasts one of the top offense’s in the country averaging a league best 44 points per game overall and 45 ppg on the road. The Bulls will attempt to extend their record of at least 35 points for the 12th straight game against an Owls team that ranks second in the league in total offense. QB Quinton Flowers had three rushing touchdowns in Saturday’s 42-27 victory over Connecticut last Saturday, pushing his season total to 20 TDs. He also leads USF in rushing with 655 yards. Aside from the 55-point debacle against Florida State in USF's only loss, the Bulls’ defense has given up 21 per game
Temple (4-3, 6-1 ATS, 2-1 ACC) relies on its ground game which is spearheaded by Ryquell Armstead and Jahad Thomas. That duo has combined for 760 yards and 14 touchdowns season while QB Phillip Walker has thrown for 10 scores.
Temple dropped a 44-23 decision against USF in Tampa last season, which started the Bulls’ scoring streak of 35 or more.
The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games while the Owls have covered in six straight games.
The weather forecast is calling for temps in the 50’s with 17 MPH winds and a 20% chance of rain.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Jose St. +23 over SDSU
Rivalry games have been the stage for shocking upsets in which a squad with a losing record upends and spoils the season of a team with an elegant won-loss record. San Jose State and San Diego State are as bitter as foes as one can fathom. The Spartans and the Aztecs have put together a feud that civilization cannot capture in any RPG. That said, San Jose State and San Diego State enter on contrasting notes both on the field and in the market. The team from the North of California has been a technological malfunction for the most part by posting a record of 2-5 on the season. Contrarily, the defending Mountain West champions from the South have been virtually flawless so far, as they have gone 5-1. Combining that with the fact that the Aztrcs are at home and one can understand the price here.
SDSU has been riding a hot hand for some time now, as they have won nine of their last 10 contests and they are also on a three-game winning streak in this rivalry series. The only loss for San Diego State came at the hands of the most unsuspecting of individuals, South Alabama. Thing is, the Aztecs have played virtually nobody. When you play nobody, skewed statistics follow. SDSU has play New Hampshire, California, Northern Illinois, UNLV and Fresno State. They scored a mere 17 points against Fresno and just 26 against UNLV. NIU and Fresno are both 1-6 teams and the Aztecs defeated them both by 14. The Aztecs were spotting nearly 20 points to South Alabama and lost outright.
The Spartans have played tougher competition than the Aztecs. They opened the year against a very good Tulsa team. They also played Utah, Iowa State and a tough New Mexico team. SJSU hung with the Utes and eventually lost by just 17. They also played toe-to-toe with New Mexico and ended up losing by just seven. The Spartans defeated Nevada last week so they come in feeling pretty good off of that game. SJSU can also run the ball and attempt to limit the Aztexcs possessions. They have three RB’s that have combined to rush for nearly 1000 yards. The Aztecs have simply not done enough to warrant spotting a number like this against a fierce rival like the one they’ll see here. The Spartans could play keep-away here and easily bring this one in under the number, even with a big yardage deficit.
CALIFORNIA -3 over Oregon
We could write five pages explaining Oregon’s dominance over the years in the Pac-12 and how they beat up on teams like Cal for a long time. In those five pages, we could also give you plenty of examples of Oregon running up the score on opponents, as if a 63-14 victory was more beneficial to them than a 42-14 victory. Well, there is almost always a price to pay for rubbing your opponents face in it for years and the Ducks are going to continue to pay that price for the next while.
Oregon hasn't covered a game all year and one reason we're still selling is the above effect. The market still sees the Ducks as an explosive team that can compete but we don’t see it that way at all. We see the Ducks being the whipping boy of this conference for at least the rest of this season and probably longer. They deserve it too. Cal has had this one circled on its calendar for a long time. The Ducks have won the last seven meetings in this series. Some of those scores were 43-15, 42-3, 55-16, 59-17 and 59-41. This now becomes a rare opportunity for the underdog-turned-favorite to kick the oppressors while they're down. The Golden Bears will show no mercy here whatsoever and the Ducks will continue to be a great fade at short prices like this on the road until they do a complete overhaul to their entire coaching staff. A monkey in silk is still a monkey so do not let the Ducks pedigree and previous domination influence you in this one. Cal will be ready.
Jimmy Boyd
San Diego State -23
I would have to lean on the Aztecs to cover the big number at home. I just don’t trust this San Jose State to make this game competitive on the road. The Spartans are 0-3 on the road, where they are allowing 45.7 ppg. Two of those being blowout losses to teams not as good as the Aztecs. They lost by 35 at Tulsa and 34 at Iowa State. Not to mention they lost at home to Hawaii by 17.
San Diego State has scored 26 points or less in their last 3 games. Which is clearly a trend they have to snap to cover this spread. I believe they will. Keep in mind we have seen them put up 45 on Cal and 42 at Northern Illinois.
The Aztecs offense is centered around star running back Donnel Pumphrey. He’s already rushed for 1,111 yards and 11 touchdowns. San Diego State as a team is ranked 18th in the country at 246.o ypg on the ground.
They will be going up against an awful San Jose State run defense. The Spartans are allowing 228.3 rushing yards/game (113th). It’s much worse on the road, where they are allowing 313 ypg and 6.1 yards/carry. They are also pitiful against the pass, giving up 8.8 yards/attempt.
The other big key here is San Jose State doesn’t offer much of a threat offensively. The Spartans have scored 17 or less points in 5 of their 7 games. Only topping the mark against Portland State and New Mexico. They go up against a San Diego State defense that is only allowing 20.0 ypg. The Aztecs are strong against both the run and the pass. They are allowing just 98.0 ypg on the ground (7th) and 199.2 ypg through the air (29th).
Another big key here figures to be turnovers. San Jose State has 3 or more turnovers in 4 of their 7 games this season. The Aztecs on the other hand have 6 turnovers in 6 games. If San Diego State gets a couple takeaways to create short fields, this could get ugly in a hurry.
Keep in mind the last two meetings have both been lopsided in favor of the Aztecs. San Diego State won 38-7 at home in 2014 and 30-7 at San Jose State last year. If you are going to play this one, I think you have to roll the dice on the Aztecs.
Brandon Lee
Oregon +3
The betting public sees Cal laying just a field goal at home against an Oregon team that has been crushed in their last two games by Washington State (33-51) and Washington (21-70) and is jumping all over the Golden Bears. I think this is a huge trap line by the books, as I see the value with the Ducks. Oregon has won 7 straight in the series and are 2-4 because of a brutal schedule. Cal's two best offensive players are dealing with injuries and without the offense scoring 40+ points/game this Bears team is not very good. This is a statement game for the Ducks and they have had two weeks to prepare for this contest. Let's also not forget the defense wasn't great last year and they held Cal to just 28-points in a 16-point win as a mere 3-point home favorite. They were undervalued in this matchup last year and I believe are again this time around.