Jimmy Boyd
Toronto vs. Los Angeles
Play: Toronto -6
I like the value here with Toronto laying a relatively short number here on the road against the Lakers. The Raptors are one of the top teams in the east and aren't far off from the elite of the league. They proved that in their last two games, losing by just 4 at San Antonio and by 5 at Golden State. I believe we can bank on a big effort here from Toronto, as they aren't going to want to drop a third straight game and fall below .500 on the season. I also think this is a good time to go against the Lakers. LA managed to erase a 10-point 4th quarter deficit and pulled out a 102-99 win after forcing OT on a last second tip-in to end regulation. Lakers have a habit of falling behind early, as they trailed the Pelicans by 20 in their previous game. There was also a little extra incentive for that game against the Wizards with the beef between the two teams surrounding Wall and Ball. While Los Angeles has some nice young talent, their still a year away from being a real threat in the west. Raptors time to win is now and they are the much better team. Even if it's close, free throws at the end should provide the cover.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa +125 over NEW JERSEY
OT included. The Devils are one of the surprise teams this season after they jumped out to a 6-1 start before losing their last game. We cashed a few tickets with them but now that the market has caught up to them, we’ll jump ship, at least for this one game. First off, Cory Schneider is out, which leaves Keith Kinkaid in goal. Kinkaid has good numbers this season in a small sample size but he’s no Cory Schneider. Secondly, the Devils six victories look very pretty on paper but underneath the hood, the Devils have major issues. The Devils rank 25th in puck possession time. They outshot only two of their first eight opponents and were badly outshot by Toronto (50-31) and the Rangers (31-19). The Devils are giving up far too many scoring chances and while we absolutely like the new look and style that they play, they are much better suited in the underdog role. Lastly, all that momentum from a strong start has been taken away with the Devils having been off for a full week since they last played last Friday against the Sharks.
The Senators were at home to Philadelphia last night and escaped with a 5-4 OT victory. The market puts a little too much emphasis on fading teams in the second game of back-to-backs but we don’t. These teams are often taking back a bigger price because of it, which applies here. The Senators are too dangerous when being offered a price. Earlier this season, Ottawa took a trip to the Canadian West Coast to face Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton and all they did was outscore that trio 15-3 in winning all three games. Incidentally, they did it without Erik Karlsson but he’s back and has eight points in five games since returning. Another factor influencing the line here is that Ottawa will also go with its backup goaltender in Mike Condon but we couldn’t be happier about it. Craig Anderson may have the pedigree but Condon is the better goaltender. Condon is a #1 for sure that is playing in the shadows of Anderson in much the same way Andrei Vasilevskiy was playing in Ben Bishop’s shadow for Tampa Bay the last few years. Vasilevskiy’s play this year is unmatched so Condon is certainly not the first #2 that should be a #1. Mike Condon is outstanding and so, too, have the Sens been on the road this season. You may remember last year what happened after teams’ were given a seven day bye. They returned to the ice flat as hell and although it wasn’t a bye week, New Jersey’s seven days between games almost assures us that they won’t be as energized as they were to start the year. Sens a strong value play here.
The bets are as follows:
Ottawa -1½ +330 for 1 unit
Ottawa +125 for 1 unit
COLUMBUS -1½ +154 over Winnipeg
10 days ago, the Jackets skated into Winnipeg and blasted the Jets 5-2 while outshooting them 39-26. The Jackets have outshot and out-chanced their last six opponents and most of it has been by a wide margin. On Wednesday night, Columbus whacked the Sabres 5-1 and has now scored four goals or more in four of its last five games. Prior to defeating the Sabres, Columbus had dropped two straight to Tampa Bay and Los Angeles respectively but they outshot the Bolts 43-21 in a 2-0 loss and outshot L.A. 38-35 in a 6-4 loss. The Jackets rank third in the league in puck possession time and now catch a very beatable Winnipeg team playing the tail end of back-to-backs after a strong effort in Pittsburgh last night. Every team looks forward to playing the Penguins so Winnipeg may be spent coming in here.
The Jets lost 2-1 in OT in Pittsburgh last night and while no loss is satisfying, that loss can’t be considered a bad one. The Jets skated away with a point and could have easily earned two. Analytically speaking, the game was as even as the score, as Pittsburgh held a slight edge in puck possession and overall scoring chances. That’s nice but there are more moving parts here that are seriously working against the Jets. First off, they are not an even keeled team like the Jackets. Winnipeg gets emotionally high and emotionally low more than any team. Secondly, there are two big keys that everything hinges on: goaltending and special teams. While this goes for most teams, it has not been an unaddressed area of weakness for most. The Jets’ special teams consistently have been amongst the worst in the NHL since the team moved from Atlanta, and apart from one good year by Ondrej Pavelec, the same can be said for goaltending, which brings us to Steve Mason. Mason will play tonight because Connor Hellebuyck played last night. Mason is 0-3 with a 5.98 GAA and .846 save percentage. It gets worse too. It may surprise you to learn that the Jets are second last in the NHL in scoring chances per game. We can attribute that to this being a top-heavy team. Paul Maurice tends to go with two skilled lines and two shutdown lines (though their shutdown abilities are rather suspect). We also love that the Jets get the Penguins back in Winnipeg on Sunday’s edition of Hometown Hockey, thus making this one sandwiched between Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh. With Steve Mason in goal, the Jets are fade material to begin with but when you add in the sandwich angle, it makes the Jackets very worthy of a wager here.
St. Louis +104 over CAROLINA
OT included. Make no mistake that the Carolina Hurricanes are a tough team that was built to take that next step this season. The ‘Canes have done some nifty drafting and have brought along their kids slowly but surely in a well-thought out plan that was orchestrated by some very good hockey people. What the ‘Canes lack in scoring ability, they more than make up for with their system, hard work and attention to details. Carolina is the NHL’s second best possession team, just behind the Oilers. In its eight games thus far, Carolina has been outshot just one time and out-Corsied one time too. The ‘Canes went into Toronto last night, jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead and never gave up that lead en route to a convincing 6-3 victory. For three years prior, we have been big time supporters of the Hurricanes because they’ve been so undervalued but the market is slowly catching up. We cashed plenty of tickets with them but also ripped up plenty when they were the better team on the ice but their goaltending couldn’t hold up. That takes us to tonight’s starter, Cam Ward. Playing their third game in four days after a resonating win in Toronto last night, the ‘Canes are a big risk playing a non-rival with Ward in net. They have been a big risk for the past five years with Ward in goal and that doesn’t change here. In fact, it makes it worse because Ward is a year older, a year slower and probably worse than ever.
The Blues are coming off a 5-2 win in Calgary. They have picked up seven out of a possible eight points over their last four games and are getting outstanding goaltending from both Jake Allen and Carter Hutton. With more pieces becoming part of the equation for the Blues, things are coming together. Alexander Steen is coming off a four-point performance (one goal, three assists), clearly shaking off the rust from missing the opening six games of the season with a broken thumb. Steen’s strong training camp put him in good position to make key contributions. Blues left winger Jaden Schwartz holds a five-game point streak also. The Blues arrived here on Thursday and will be playing on one full day of rest, which is the ideal situation for any team. They are 7-2-1 overall and playing with grit, confidence and aggressiveness. The end result is that the Blue Notes are a tough out and you'll want more than Cam Ward and home ice in your pocket to warrant getting behind the ‘Canes when giving up a price. Cam Ward is another “finished” goaltender and the game has passed him by.
The bets are as follows:
St. Louis -1½ +282 for 1 unit
St. Louis +104 for 1 unit
Buster Sports
Florida State at Boston College
Play: Boston College +4.5
The Boston College Eagles are very surprisingly starting to play some very good football. HC Steve Addazio has to be commended for the great job he has done. They have won three out of their last 4 games but what is most important to us is that they have now covered five straight CFB games. We have been on Boston College a few times this year already and tonight, we will give them out as a free play winner. Florida State is just not the same team without QB Deondre Francois and although freshman QB James Blackman has done at admirable job, it is going to get a little tougher this week as the Seminoles lost their junior RB Jacques Patrick for the year. Boston College has a freshman quarterback as well in Anthony Brown and he seems to be coming into his own as the season progresses. Florida State has kicked Boston College around for some time now, as Boston College has not beaten Florida State since 2009. We believe that could change today but since at the time of this writing we are getting 4 1/2 points with the Eagles we will be more than happy to take them.
Harry Bondi
Tulsa (+10) over SMU
These two teams always play each other tough with the underdog covering 11 of their last 12 meetings. Tulsa is way down from last year’s offensive powerhouse but they still have enough juice to put up some big numbers on SMU’s #105th ranked defense. Tulsa was a 17 point favorite against SMU last year and IS NOW +10? SMU is much improved offensively BUT NOT 27 POINTS better. We will gladly take double digits with the Hurricanes to keep it close.
Rob Vinciletti
Oklahoma City at Minnesota
Play: Oklahoma City -2
The Thunder are playing with early season revenge here for a home loss 5 days ago to Minnesota. The Wolves have failed to cover the last 5 at home. OKC has won 3 of the last 4 here. Minnesota is 3-16 ats at home the last few years if they lost to the spread on the road and allowed 120 or more. Finally to tie in a system from the database we see that road teams with rest off a home favored win and cover at -10 or more scoring 110 or more are 11-0 ats vs a team that failed to cover by 7+ points as a road dog. Look for the Thunder to serve up revenge tonight.