Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Friday, October 28th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Raphael Esparza
Air Force / Fresno St Over 53.5
Air Force will be looking to snap out of their three-game losing streak and they have to be thrilled that Fresno St is on the schedule this weekend. Air Force has dropped three straight games and all three of those games went 'Over' the total and Friday night in the Bulldog Stadium this Mountain West Conference game should have no problem going 'Over' the total. Fresno St has had trouble scoring points, but at home I see them being able to move the ball against the Falcons defense and we all know the Air Force offense will be able to score on the Bulldogs defense. Friday night I see Air Force winning on the road and this game hits the 'Over' with ease. Air Force is 10-1 O/U against conference opponents and the Falcons are 6-1 O/U in their last 7 road games. Fresno St is 5-2 O/U in their last 7 home games and the Bulldogs are 7-3 O/U in their last 10 conference games.
Bryan Leonard
Air Force vs. Fresno State
Play: Fresno State +14
The Falcons have dropped three straight games outright despite being favored by a combined 43 1/2 points the past three contests. After knocking off Navy earlier and with an improved Army on deck, how can we back the visitor here.
Despite having a lame duck coach most of the season Fresno has posted a 4-3 spread mark. With Tim DeRuyter being fired the team has extra motivation for next year. In a rare home televised appearance we will side with the team who has played the much tougher schedule.
Rob Vinciletti
Lakers vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -8
The Jazz have their home opener tonight after losing by 9 in Portland. The Lakers are off a big comeback win over Houston at home. Rested home favorites of 5 or more that are off a road dog straight up and ats loss where they scored and allowed 100 or more have covered over 80% long term vs a team that scored 120 or more at home. The Jazz have covered 4 of 5 in the series and the winning teams has covered the last 10 in the series. Look for the Jazz to get the win and cover.
Jim Feist
San Diego St at Utah St
Pick: Over
The San Diego State Aztecs are ranked #59 on offense, averaging 418.3 yards per game. The Aztecs are averaging 252.7 yards rushing. On the road, the Aztecs are averaging 27.7 scoring, and holding teams to 24.3 points scored on defense. Utah State can score at home averaging 34.2 ppg here and the over is 11-3 in the Aggies last 14 conference games. Utah State is 10-4 over the total on fieldturf and the Over is 7-3 in the Aggies last 10 home games.
Mike Lundin
Cavs vs. Raptors
Play: Cavs -2
The Toronto Raptors opened the season with a 109-91 victory over the Detroit Pistons. They'll face a much tougher test when hosting on the reigning NBA champs the Cleveland Cavaliers Friday night, and my money is on the visitors.
Cleveland came out all guns blazing with a 117-88 demolition of the New York Knicks on Tuesday. Point guard Kyrie Irving scored 29 points and forward LeBron James had 19 points, 14 assists and 11 rebounds. This game is a rematch of the Eastern Conference Finals, a series the Cavs won 4-2, with their four victories by an average of 28.5 points. It's obviously early in the season, but I think both teams will be well up for this game to set the tone in the conference.
With motivation (or lack of) not a factor, I think this is an easy play on the superior Cavs.
Carlo Campanella
Indians vs. Cubs
Play: Under 8
The World Series is tied up 1-1 heading into Friday's Game #3, but the best wagering opportunity isn't on who's going to win and take the series lead, but on the UNDER 8 Runs. We play the 3rd game of this series, but this pitching match-up is strong enough to be most teams in MLB's ace vs ace. Chicago starts Hendricks, who's gone "Under" in 12 of 15 games (3-12 Over/Under) this year when facing a team owning a winning record. In his 3 postseason starts, Hendricks has allowed 0, 1 and 2 Earned Runs. He squares off against Cleveland's Tomlin, who's coming off back-to-back Playoff victories in which he allowed 1 and 2 Earned Runs. Toss in the Tribe's bull pen of Miller and Allen and don't expect much scoring from either team on a very cold night in Chicago. With the temperature listed at 60 degrees, there' won't be much "jump" on the ball.
David Banks
Navy @ South Florida
Pick: Navy +6.5
In what could be a preview of the American Athletic Conference championship game, No. 22 Navy travels to South Florida on Friday night. The Midshipmen are unbeaten (4-0) in AAC play and 5-1 overall. They are coming off two big wins, last week over Memphis and previously over then No. 6 Houston. Navy is now two games ahead of Houston in the West Division and would like nothing more than to keep it that way.
To beat South Florida (6-2, 3-1), the Midshipmen are going to have to control one of the nation’s better dual-threat quarterbacks in Quinton Flowers. The 6-foot, 210-pound junior leads the Bulls in both passing (1,722 yards) and rushing (745 yards) and has a combined 23 touchdowns. The running game also features RB Marlon Mack, the team’s second-leading rusher with 659 yards and a team-high 10 touchdowns. South Florida is one of the more prolific offenses in the nation scoring 43.1 points per game, 11th-best in the country.
Navy knows a little bit about scoring too putting up 42 in the Memphis win and 46 against a pretty good Houston defense. The triple option offense gives defenses fits and the Middies run it well. They are fourth in the nation in rushing averaging 293.2 yards a game. Quarterback Will Worth, who has taken over for the injured Tago Smith, is Navy’s leading rusher with 489 yards. In the win over Memphis, Worth ran for a career-high 201 yards and scored three times. Fullback Chris High has 392 yards and Dishan Romine has added 256.
Friday’s game will feature two very good running attacks. The winner will be the one that can best slow down the other. A South Florida win would keep the Bulls alive in the East. The Bulls are tied with Temple and Central Florida.
Bryan Leonard
Air Force at Fresno State
Play: Fresno State +14
The Falcons have dropped three straight games outright despite being favored by a combined 43 1/2 points the past three contests. After knocking off Navy earlier and with an improved Army on deck, how can we back the visitor here.
Despite having a lame duck coach most of the season Fresno has posted a 4-3 spread mark. With Tim DeRuyter being fired the team has extra motivation for next year. In a rare home televised appearance we will side with the team who has played the much tougher schedule.
ASA
San Diego St. at Utah St.
Play: San Diego St. -5.5
There could be some rain or some wind in Logan, Utah Friday evening. Nothing too severe is expected but the fact is that any such weather would be a help to the road team anyway. The Aztecs like to pound the ball on the ground and they also play fantastic defense. San Diego State has not had more than 26 pass attempts in a single game this season. The Aztecs have averaged just 18.2 pass attempts the past five weeks. In stark contrast to San Diego State's offense, the Aggies have thrown the ball at least 35 times in 4 of their past 6 games. The point is that any weather impacts will mostly be felt by the home team. No matter the weather, the fact is that it will be tough for Utah State to move the ball against a San Diego State defense that ranks among the tops in the nation. The Aztecs D had one bad game this season and that was an awful one against California. However, in their other 6 games San Diego State has allowed a ridiculously low 232.7 yards of TOTAL offense per game. Last season the Aztecs knocked off the Aggies by a margin of 34 points. Even though they are on the road for this one, the key thing to keep in mind with San Diego State is they've been winning everywhere in conference action. The Aztecs have won 14 straight conference games. Included in that stretch is 5 straight road wins in Mountain West action with the average win by a margin of victory of 22.6 points! Overall, in MWC road games, San Diego State is on an 11-3 ATS run. Even though Utah State has a solid run defense, the Aztecs (with RB Pumphrey leading the way) have averaged 252.7 rushing yards per game on the season and will give the Aggies a very tough test here. Last season San Diego State ran all over them for 336 yards and we expect more of the same in this season's match-up! Utah State is 0-3 ATS in home games with a total set in a range of 42.5 to 45 points and, with points likely to be at a premium in this one, the Aggies are once again unlikely to be able to do enough on offense to stay inside the number as they fall to 0-4 ATS in this situation.
Jimmy Boyd
San Diego St/Utah St Under 43½
San Diego State features one of the best defenses in the country. The Aztecs have allowed a total of 13 points in their last 3 games combined. On the season, they are holding opponents to a mere 286 ypg. Nearly 100-yards fewer than what their opponents average (373).
Hard to see the Aggies being the team to crack this defense. Utah State is only averaging 25.4 ppg and rank 83rd in total offense at just 359.6 ypg. The two best defenses they have faced to this point are USC and Boise State. The Aggies managed just 7 points against the Trojans 10 points against the Broncos.
The key here is that I think Utah State’s defense is capable of keeping the Aztecs offense in check. San Diego State has one of the best rushing attacks in the country. They come in 14th in the nation at 252.7 ypg. However, they also have one of the worst passing games in the country, ranking 114th at just 165.6 ypg.
Utah State’s defense has been solid against the run this season. While they are giving up 152 ypg, they are allowing just 3.6 yards/carry. They are also holding opposing teams to just 5.0 yards/play. Playing at home will definitely help the intensity of the defense. It’s also a lot easier to stop a team who is one dimensional.
Possessions should be limited for both sides, which is a key factor when looking to bet the UNDER. The Aztecs also aren’t a team who looks to poor it on late. In their 42-3 win over San Jose State, they didn’t score once in the 4th quarter.
Under is 15-5 in San Diego State’s last 20 conference games. It’s also 12-2 in their last 14 against a team with a losing record and 6-0 in their last 6 against teams who force 1 or fewer turnovers/game.
Teddy Davis
Suns vs. Thunder
Play: Suns +9½
I will gladly take the points here with the Suns as they are coming off a ugly opening game vs the Kings. The Thunder were on the road and had a handful against the 76ers. They actually never had lead in double digits that whole game. This Suns team will respond here tonight with a lot better performance. Suns are 7-0 ATS L7 games following an ATS loss. They are also 10-2 ATS L 12 following a SU loss.
Brandon Lee
Cubs -1½ +112
Chicago's 8-4 in the playoffs and their 4 losses have come against Bumgarner, Kershaw, Hill and Kluber, four of the best starters in the game this season. Six of their 8 wins have come by 2 runs or more and with Tomlin on the mound for Cleveland in this one and Hendricks going for Chicago, I think the Cubs on the run line is the best play here. The wind will be blowing out tonight and that only gives Chicago a bigger edge here. Tomlin's big weakness is he gives up too many homers and Hendricks is one of the best in the game at keeping the ball in the park. Playing at home with this crowd is another huge edge for Chicago. Note they are outscoring opponents at home in the playoffs 19-7.
Sean Murphy
Raptors +3
We won with the Cavs in their opener against the Knicks on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and go against the defending champs as they head to Toronto on Friday night.
Keep in mind, we also cashed a ticket with the Raptors in their blowout win over the Pistons two nights ago.
It certainly appears that the Cavs and Raps are on a collision course once again in the Eastern Conference this season. I look for Toronto to make an early statement on Friday night - this one means a little more to the Raps in my opinion and motivation is certainly always a big factor in the NBA, not to mention home court.
The Cavs depth will be tested in this one. The Raps never relented against the Pistons in their home opener and while the same could be said for the Cavs, they were up against a more disjointed opponent in the Knicks, who are working in a lot of new faces.
Toronto certainly held its own against Cleveland last season and I expect nothing different in 2016-17. The case could be made that the wrong team is favored here so I'll grab all the points I can get.
Ray Monohan
San Diego St vs. Utah St
Play: San Diego St -5.5
The Aztecs impressive run continues as they head into Utah State here on Friday night, holding value laying the small number.
The Aztecs sit at an impressive 6-1 on the season while averaging 32.4 points to just 17.6 against. They go up against a Utah State team that hasn't impressed much, going just 3-4 while scoring only 25.4 points per game.
Where the Aztecs get value is from RB Donnel Pumphrey. The Heisman candidate has been nothing short of spectacular this season, rushing for 1246 yards, while tallying 13 touchdowns. He's been able to pace the Aztecs and really help them control the pace and momentum in games.
Some trends to note. Aztecs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Aztecs are 9-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
San Diego State has a clear edge here and given the small line, this is a nice spot for them.