Chip Chirimbes
Pacers vs. Nets
Play: Nets +6½
Both clubs have 'new' coaches this season as the Pacers come off a 130-121 overtime home win over Dallas and now part take in their first road game. Brooklyn opened against Boston on Wednesday where the trailed by 23-points before making a comeback good enough to provide a 'back-door' cover losing 122-117 in Boston. In tonight's home opener is Brooklyn remembering who they won the last meeting at home 120-110. I expect more of the same here!
Jack Jones
Indiana Pacers -6
I expect the Indiana Pacers to finish in the top four in the Eastern Conference this season. The Brooklyn Nets, meanwhile, might be the worst team in the entire NBA. I'm confident in laying six points here on the road with the Pacers because of it.
This line is smaller than it should be for a couple reasons. The Pacers needed overtime to beat the Mavericks last game, but they led by double-digits most the way before the Mavs made a frantic comeback in the 4th quarter. The Mavs made 18 3-pointers, which is highly unlikely.
At the same time, the Nets only lost 117-122 at Boston in their opener as 11.5-point dogs. But they trailed by as many as 23 points in that game before also making a frantic fourth-quarter comeback. The Celtics clearly took their foot off the gas. I think the Pacers will learn from their opener and not let up here as they put it on the Nets.
The Nets have dropped 11 straight games dating back to last season while going 2-9 ATS in the process. The Pacers have won eight of their last 11 meetings with the Nets, including a 129-105 win in their final meeting last season. The Nets are 1-9 ATS after a combined score of 225 or more points over the last two seasons.
Larry Ness
Charlotte vs. Miami
Pick: Charlotte
The Charlotte Hornets had a 3-2 lead over the Miami Heat in last year’s opening round but failed to win Game 6 at home. Then, back in Miami for Game 7, got crushed by a score of 106-73. The Hornets will get to play an early-season grudge match tonight, when they travel to Miami to take on the Heat. It should be noted that Luol Deng, Gerald Green, Joe Johnson and Dwyane Wade combined for 52 points in the Heat's Game 7 win last season but all have departed in the offseason as the franchise has decided to rebuild around center Hassan Whiteside and PG Goran Dragic.
Whiteside signed a four-year, $98.4 million contract over the summer and scored 18 points with 14 rebounds and four blocks in 31 minutes in Wednesday’s 108-96 win in the season opener at Orlando. Dragic, who scored 25 points in the Game 7 win last spring, put up 16 points in the opener. Justice Winslow, the second-year small forward from Duke, moved into starting lineup to put up 15 points plus had eight rebounds. It’s expected that Dion Waiters (nine points) and the 24-year-old Tyler Johnson (15 points) are in line for bigger roles in the backcourt this season.
Charlotte added veteran center Roy Hibbert over the summer, who is trying to resurrect his career back in the Eastern Conference. The 29-year-old delivered 15 points, nine rebounds and five blocks in his team debut and impressed his new teammates. "He’s such a security blanket back there," forward Marvin Williams told the Charlotte Observer of Hibbert. "You know if you get beaten, there’s always someone back there to cover for you. It makes you more confident to take chances." Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is fully healthy and ready to take some of the scoring load off Kemba Walker's shoulders and the former overall No. 2 pick scored a team-high 23 points on 10-of-18 shooting to go with 14 rebounds in the Hornets' 107-96 win at Milwaukee to open the season on Wednesday (Walker had 17 points).
I like the “playoff revenge angle” early in the season and will take the points with the Hornets.
Harry Bondi
UTAH STATE +6 over San Diego State
Ever since getting run over by USC in a bad spot in the second week of the season, Utah State has proven to be a difficult team to beat by a large margin, with close losses to Air Force, Boise State and Colorado State and we’ll look for them to keep this one close tonight at home. The Aggies offense has been especially good at home this season, averaging better than 34 points per game with its very balanced attack. This is the first true road test for San Diego State all season and we’ll call for a close game right down until the final possession.
Wunderdog
Golden State @ New Orleans
Pick: Golden State -11
Super-talented Golden State got embarrassed at home in the opener by the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday, so they've had three days to stew. Steph Curry, who set an NBA record with 402 three-pointers last season, went 3-of-10 from beyond the arc, while newcomer Kevin Durant put up 27 points and 10 rebounds. The Warriors are 34-16-2 ATS when playing on two days rest, plus 23-11-2 ATS when following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points. Young New Orleans didn't look sharp in its home opener, losing to Denver as a favorite, 107-102. They got outrebounded and shot 41% from the field, and just 3-of-19 from long range. The Warriors are also 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings in New Orleans.
Buster Sports
Houston vs. Dallas
Play: Under 219.5
The Houston Rockets play the Mavericks tonight in Dallas and both these teams came out of the gates and scored a bunch of points in their openers. The Rockets look like they will want to play that run and gun style like they did with the Lakers but we believe the Mavericks will have no part of that tonight especially at home.The last 5 games between these clubs have went under today's total and Dallas was 14th in points allowed per game last yr at 102. So they can play some defense. Although Harden had 34 points in the first game it seems he has bought into D'Antoni's pass first philosophy for him as he had a career high 17 assists. With that being said we know defense will be an issue with Houston but we believe they will try and play a little tonight against their Southwest Division rivals in playing a second road game in a row to start the season. The total is just a little too high for us so we will gladly take it UNDER.
Sleepyj
Indians / Cubs Under 8
Not feeling this one tonight going over the total...Cubs have struggled with taking days off and they get another gap in the schedule once again..Perhaps the bats come out cold after a day off..Also the cold weather tonight in Chicago, might help the flight of the ball staying in the park as well...Hendricks has been very good and the pressure here for both teams might mount, but the Indians might be the team who struggles most...Neither team knows these pitchers and that a big help for the under...Not sold that Scwarber now in PH roll can add the offense to keep the Cubs bats on the up and up....Something stinks about this game and I won't be shocked if this one turns out to be a very entertaining game, but a very low scoring pitchers duel...Under is the call.
Vegas Butcher
CLE @ TOR +2.5
Both teams are coming off very easy blowout wins on opening nights at home, as Cavs dispatched the Knicks by almost 30, while the Raptors beat the Reggie Jackson-less Pistons by almost 20. This is a ‘revenge’ game of sorts for the Raptors, who lost to Cleveland in 6 games during last year’s Conference Finals. What is interesting is that the Cavs were listed between -5.5 and -6.5 in the three road games they played in that series. During the season, Cavaliers were in a similar range to today’s line, listed around -3 / -2.5. Obviously, there’s additional factors (travel, fatigue, injuries, motivation, etc.) involved during the regular season vs. the post-season, where Cleveland was fully healthy and fully motivated. The question becomes, what kind of Cleveland team are we to expect in this game? The Cavs are fully healthy, they’re well rested (it’s the start of the season – duh!), and LeBron seems to be as motivated as ever to start this season and show everyone his team is ready to challenge Golden State again this year. One key difference in this matchup is spacing and 3PT shooting, something that Cavs excel at and an area where the Raptors could struggle. I believe if LeBron is truly as ‘motivated’ as he says he is this season, Cleveland is too talented and should be able to win this one with ease. The spread feels a little short. Lean: CLE -2.5
ORL @ DET -4
Magic fell flat on their faces against the Heat on opening night, an indication to me that this team is not ready to be a consistent winner as a listed ‘favorite’. But today they return to a more familiar ‘underdog’ role, where they are 64-58 ATS over the last few years. The Pistons are also coming off a ‘humbling’ defeat, though they did play one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Their assist-rate was below 50% and TO-rate of over 12%, indicating some potential long-term issues here with Reggie Jackson out of the lineup (he’s supposed to miss 4-6 weeks). Ish Smith didn’t play too bad, but he’s not as dynamic of a scorer as Jackson. Detroit needs to find some offense from their secondary players and of course from Dummond while RJ is out. Orlando has plenty of big guys, but that didn’t stop the Heat from accumulating 74 PIP (Points In the Paint) against them. That’s almost 70% of all of Miami’s production in that game, which is unheard of! The return of Biyambo (was suspended for game 1) should help of course, as he’s a premier paint defender and rebounder. I would expect a closer game between these two teams, than each experienced in the opener as both are looking to get into the ‘win’ column. Lean: ORL +4
IND @ BKN +6.5
Don’t let the final score fool you, the Nets were outplayed from start to finish in their opening night game, and are truly one of the worst teams in the league this year. Their 18-2 run at the very end of the 4th quarter contributed to the final score being much closer than it truly was. In any case, for this matchup, the Pacers should create similar problems for Nets as Boston did. Brook Lopez only played 21 minutes against Boston, primarily due to his difficulty in guarding an athletic, perimeter oriented player like Horford. Well, the Pacers have that in Myles Turner, a 20-year old future superstar, with 3-PT range. All in all, this Pacers starting unit is very athletic overall, and this could cause some serious matchup problems for the Nets. If Lopez can’t get it going again tonight, it drastically reduces Nets’ chances to compete. I believe we could see a similar scenario tonight as in the ‘Boston’ game as I expect the Nets to struggle to defend Indy’s quickness. Lean: IND -6.5
PHX @ OKC -9.5
I didn’t expect the Thunder to struggle as much as they did in their opening game of the season against a bad Philly team. The Sixers actually outplayed them, as they had a +3 differential average for the game. Maybe life without KD will be more difficult than anyone expected? Of course it could be just one game, as we’ll see how the Thunder do tonight. One issue for them is that there just isn’t much perimeter shooting for this team. Teams can collapse defenders into the paint, take away Westbrook’s drives, and force Thunder into inefficient long-range jump shots. OKC was only 49% within 5-feet against Philly, which is not something you’d expect from a team with Westbrook on it. Playing at home against another pretty bad team like the Suns, I’d expect Thunder to bounce back here. Phoenix was awful defensively in their first game of the season and I don’t see this team being disciplined enough defensively to contain Westbrook and Co. tonight. Lean: OKC -9.5
CHA @ MIA -2
Both teams are coming off impressive wins, though Miami’s performance might be more so. Scoring 74 PIP will do that. Charlotte though has Hibbert, who is coming off a 5-block game, so points in the paint won’t come as easy this time around. With both Hibbert and Whiteside patrolling the paint for their respective teams, the key question for this one could be which team has more perimeter fire-power? That’s most likely Charlotte. Miami is missing their starting SG Josh Richardson still (knee), and he’s their best perimeter shooter. And while scoring points was fairly easy against a poor Orlando D, Charlotte’s D is going to be much more difficult to crack. Hornets are a ‘better’ team, and I think there’s enough edges in this one for them to squeak out a win. Lean: CHA +2
HOU @ DAL -1.5
Man, this Houston defense is going to be horrendous this year. Allowing 120 to the Lakers is pretty much indicative of that. Of course it doesn’t help that their best defender, Patrick Beverley, is out for the next 4-6 weeks with a knee injury. Of course, Dallas might not be any better, as they allowed 130 (115 in regulation) to the Pacers. Keep in mind that these two teams play each other again on Sunday, this time in Houston. Based on what happens tonight, could be an opportunity to fade the winner, as the losing team could/should make adjustments. For this one, I’d give the home team a slight edge. Lean: DAL -1.5
LAL @ UTA -8.5
Gordon Hayward is out until mid/late November as is Alec Burks. Derrick Favors practiced fully though on Thursday and will see how he feels during the shoot-around to determine his playing status. Hayward was Utah’s leading scorer last year while Favors was 2nd, so it’d be big to get him back on the court at least. Even still I doubt he plays his full allotment of minutes. As far as the Lakers are concerned, it’s a little hard to take a team seriously when they’re starting Nick Young. Expect a lot of volatility with this squad this year. Overall, Utah is a superior team and I think if Favors plays, you have to like their chances in this one. Lean: UTA -8.5
GSW @ NOP +10
I’m wondering if all games following Warriors losses, should be auto-bet on the Dubs. A team as dominant as they should be, is expected to bounce back after defeats, especially this early in the season. Without Holiday, Evans, and Pondexter (excellent 3PT shooter), this team is serious devoid of talent. Yes, AD is awesome, but he can’t do it alone. If Warriors game-plan to slow him down, there just isn’t enough talent to pick up the slack. Lean: GSW -10
Chris Jordan
My free winner is on the San Diego State Aztecs against the Utah State Aggies, in Mountain West play.
Now aside from the fact Rocky Long has his Aztecs streaking once again, having won three straight over UNLV, Fresno State and San Jose State, I'm putting this one Donnell Pumphrey to have a huge game.
It gets personal tonight for him and a group out of Las Vegas known as Code Black Athletes. The talented group started as high school athletes in Las Vegas, and there are now several making big noise in college, including Pumphrey.
This past week a close friend of CBA was murdered, and the bodies were discovered yesterday in an apartment. The community was shocked, and the CBA-family took to social media for support of their fallen soldier.
Last night it was the nation's No. 1 high school team Bishop Gorman - where CBA started - that blanked Durango, 56-0, with help of safety CBA-athlete Bubba Bolden. Tonight it continues with Pumphrey, who went to Canyon Springs in North Las Vegas.
He is going to dedicate this one to the late Neo Kauffman, and may rush for 200.
Play the Aztecs tonight, as they roll past Utah State.
3* SAN DIEGO STATE
Brad Wilton
Time for the Falcons to fly once again, as Air Force was looking "aces" when they started out 4-0 straight up, but Troy Calhoun's team comes into this road game at Bulldog Stadium saddled with 3 straight up and against the spread losses.
Things should go the Force's way tonight against the one win Bulldogs who have fired their head coach, as Fresno has lost their last pair, and 3 of their last 4 games by double-digits.
Overall Fresno State is on a 4-18 straight up slide, and their run defense is ranked at the bottom of the barrel on the year which should mean the Falcons option attack finally gets untracked.
Last season Air Force laid waste to Fresno State, 42-14 as the -17 point home favorite. Easy to see a similar final when tonight's game is inked in the books.
Air Force as the double-digit road favorite gets on top of this number against a Fresno State team that will have to wait until next year to regroup.
5* AIR FORCE
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is on the Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs to go over the posted number. The World Series moves to Chicago, for the middle games, and this is a pivotal game for the Cubs. By establishing their offensive prowess at home, they can make a huge statement and serve a huge gut check to the Indians.
I'm not sold that Cleveland is just going to take said gut shot, and lay down, as I think the Indians could provide some offensive fireworks of their own. I can see the Cubs winning this by a final of 7-4, while I could see Cleveland challenging in some strange slugfest that ends up 8-7 for one or the other.
I'm not sure which side to take - I don't pay attention the number so I don't care how big a favorite the Cubs are - so I'm going to side with the Over in this one and look for these two lineups to drive this total into double digits.
3* Indians/Cubs Over
Bob Valentino
My free play is on the Chicago Cubs on the Run Line tonight, in Game 3 of the World Series against the Cleveland Indians.
This should make for an interesting game tonight, but I'm most certainly siding with the baby bears because of their starting pitcher.
Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket are Josh Tomlin and Kyle Hendricks, when making your wager tonight. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
Hendricks was dominant in a 5-0 win over the Dodgers in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series, as he allowed just two hits over 7 1/3 frames. The 26-year-old right-hander has been a stalwart for the Cubbies during the postseason, registering a 1.65 ERA over 16 1/3 innings.
I think he'll be able to handcuff the Indians lineup long enough, giving the Cubs offense a chance to build up a lead on Tomlin.
I know Cleveland's right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA during the postseason, but tonight he is pitching in a tough spot, tough situation: Friday night, first World Series game at Wrigley Field in a gazillion years and the Cubs offense.
All bad.
Take the Cubbies on the Run Line here.
3* CUBS -1.5
Brett Atkins
My Friday comp play comes in the World Series, as I stick with the Under in the Indians-Cubs series.
Two games played in Cleveland, and both held Under the total, as both games saw a combined total of 6 runs being scored.
Cleveland has now played 10 playoff games this October, and 9 of the 10 have held Under the posted price!
As for Chicago, they have played 5 of their last 7 this postseason Under the posted price.
It will be Josh Tomlin working the bump against Kyle Hendricks for Game 3.
Tomlin finished the regular season at 13-9, and has bested both Boston and Toronto this October with just 3 runs allowed in nearly 11 innings pitched.
Hendricks is 9-2 at Wrigley Field this season with a scant ERA of 1.32. He is also 2-0 in 3 postseason starts this October.
With the pitchers having now to hit for themselves in the N.L. park, that is one less offensive weapon Tomlin and Hendricks have to worry about.
Look for the Under to move to 3-0 in this year's World Series.
2* CLEVELAND-CUBS UNDER
DAVE PRICE
Houston Rockets +1
The Houston Rockets lost their opener to the Los Angeles Lakers 114-120. However, they dominated in the preseason, and they should take down the Dallas Mavericks tonight. The Rockets' downfall was shooting just 24.1% from 3-point range against the Lakers, and they should do much better here with all of the talent they have on the perimeter. The Mavs have one of the worst rosters in the Western Conference. Most of their players are past their primes, and Harrison Barnes was a terrible get in the offseason for how much they paid for him. I look for the Rockets to run the Mavs out of the gym tonight. The Rockets are 90-57 ATS in their last 147 road games off an upset loss as a favorite.
SPORTS WAGERS
SOUTH FLORIDA -6½ over Navy
What the Midshipmen have been able to accomplish so far this season is impressive. They blew out Memphis last Saturday after shocking Houston in Week 5. Cracking the Top 25 with a dominating running attack and a 5-1 record has all eyes on Navy for the first time in quite a while. The last time the Midshipmen finished the season ranked was in 1978. If they win out, Navy could be playing in the ACC title game but this looks like the week reality sets in for the Middies. While they are averaging 293 rushing yards a game, the Midshipmen are totally one sided with their option offense.
You take a team that rarely gets national exposure, tell them they are a top-25 team and then put them into the national spotlight on a Friday night during prime time and it changes everything. The players get too jacked up. Their heads get too big and they all want to be a hero. We see it all the time from smaller programs. We saw it when App State was supposed to compete with Miami but instead got their asses handed to them in a complete wipeout. There are literally dozens of smaller programs that got into the polls and subsequently crashed the very next week because if it. Navy has come out of nowhere since their big upset win over the Cougars. The market is being fooled into taking these points but we know better.
The Bulls lost last week as a -5½ point road favorite at Temple and allowed 322 yards on the ground in the process. USF was blown out 46-30 against the Owls and its poor performance has many questioning how they can possibly stop Navy’s fourth ranked rushing attack. We’re not so worried. The total in this game is 63 so fireworks are likely. USF brings a fierce offensive game plan of their own with quarterback Quinton Flowers leading the way and being a big time weapon. Flowers was contained last week against Temple, as the Bulls only had 277 yards of total offense but this line strongly suggests he won’t be silenced two weeks in a row. USF’s value in the market is low after a disappointing performance last week while Navy has sailed to a pair of impressive victories their last two games. What the market will see is a rare chance to grab significant points against an unranked opponent. What we see is a the exact opposite in that the oddsmakers are begging you to take the points by hanging that proverbial carrot right in front of your nose. Do not take it. The line says USF is the right play here so that is how we'll proceed.