SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Rangers -1½ +264 over CAROLINA
OT included. We have choices here with the Rangers. We can play them straight up at a short price or we can spot just a half puck while taking back a pretty sweet price. However, we’re spotting 1½ goals this time because that price is too good to pass up and so is the situation. Besides, if the Rangers are up a goal, the Hurricanes will pull their goalie, which gives us a great chance to cash anyway. Frankly, we trust the Rangers will be up by three goals or more at that point and here’s why: Carolina has refused to address their weak goaltending situation. Cam Ward is old and slow and rarely has a good game. Eddie Lack might be worse. Lack struggles with every puck. The ‘Canes are trying desperately to give Lack the starting job but he has squandered every opportunity for well over a year. Lack has been so bad that Ward with his 0-4 record, 4.03 GAA and .848 save percentage gets this start. That’s not all. Carolina opens at home after seven straight on the road to open the year, which included four games in Western Canada. The Hurricanes figure to be tired. Their state of mind also comes into question after a 1-6 start to the year. When you have weak goaltending that hasn’t made a big stop all season and surrenders frequent softies, it resonates throughout and it also puts everyone on their heels. This is a physically and mentally tired host.
Enter the New York Rangers, a team that spent a ton of time in their own zone last year but has done a complete 180 this season. The Rangers powerful group of forwards have been relentless in their forecheck and keeping the opposition pinned in their own end. Playing defense takes up far more energy than playing offense and by the third period (or sooner) these teams playing the Rangers look like they’re killing a penalty when in fact they are not. The Rangers have more high quality scoring chances (88) than any team in the NHL and it’s not close. Edmonton with 71 is second. While the Rangers defense leaves much to be desired, the commitment from their deep group of forwards to play two-way hockey is paying off in spades. What we’re seeing from the Rangers in the early going is a bunch of really good players all peaking at the same time and perhaps all headed for career years. There are no breaks when the Rangers roll out the most balanced group of forwards in the NHL. You take all those high quality scoring chances against Cam Ward and chances are we’ll be seeing Eddie Lack tonight too. Rangers, in a great frame of mind and in a great spot too, roll.
Winnipeg +145 over COLORADO
OT included. Colorado has been off for nearly a week after dropping a 5-2 decision to the Panthers last Saturday night. That’s too big a break to ignore. The Avs picked up impressive wins in Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh but with this much time off so early in the season, any positive momentum they may have built up could be long gone. Colorado’s expectations were low coming into the year so it is way too early to start spotting big prices with them based on a couple of victories. Perhaps they snuck up on Tampa and Pittsburgh but whatever the case, the Avs are not established enough to warrant this price tag, especially against a dangerous team like the Jets, who have been very active this week.
While their opponents have sat idle all week, the Jets have been busy with last Sunday's Heritage Classic and a pair of games with the Stars. Winnipeg split the home and home against Dallas with a 4-1 victory last night. Patrik Laine is turning out to be quite the consolation prize as the second overall pick behind Auston Matthews. Laine leads the team in goals and added two power play markers last night. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again that Winnipeg is loaded with talent. They are always a tweak or two away from dominating games and they are always a threat to win. The market tends to overreact when a team is playing on back to back nights but we see too much value in Winnipeg tonight to worry about such things. After a big and much-needed win last night, the Jets probably can't wait to get back to the rink. Regardless, we’re not passing up prices like this on Winnipeg when the team they are playing is not their equal and whose stock is too high here. Overlay.
Ottawa +115 over CALGARY
OT included. The Flames were slow out of the gate by winning just one of their first six games. Much of that had to do with their poor power play (just 1/25 in those games) and a struggling Brian Elliot between the pipes. As a result of their slow start, expectations were not high for Calgary when they went into St. Louis and Chicago this past week. The Flames were a big dog to both the ‘Hawks and Blues but returned home with all four points after back to back wins. Now the Flames go from a +170 underdog to a -135 favorite (that's what it opened as) in the span of two days. Calgary has not played well at home this season with just one win in four tries. The last time the Flames were priced in this range, they lost to the Hurricanes, 4-2 and are now the only team in the NHL to lose to the 'Canes thus far.
Ottawa has lost the services of goaltender Craig Anderson but we are not going to overreact to his absence from its lineup. Andrew Hammond is a very capable backup and he now moves into the #1 spot, where he can thrive even more with more playing time. The Sens are 4-2 and they are the only team to beat the Canadiens this season. They started out this Western road trip with a 3-0 win in Vancouver to set the tone for the rest of the way. The Senators are an extremely dangerous group that is feeling pretty good about things after a nice start. In its four wins, Ottawa has scored 19 times, which includes those two aforementioned victories over two of the stingiest teams in the NHL in Montreal and Vancouver. The Sens have plenty of appeal as a pooch against a beatable Calgary team that is laboring at home and that has allowed more high quality scoring chances against than any team in the NHL with the exception of the Coyotes. We must play the value here.
Bob Balfe
Cubs -1.5 +100
Wrigley is going to be magical tonight. This might be the most unbelievable atmosphere we have seen in some time. Opening pitch is going to be majestic. Hendricks has been solid at home all season and right now is pitching as well as any pitcher in the game. This is a game the Cubs need to win and need to win big to have a possible shot of winning the title on this field. I don’t think history can hold up any longer. This team is geared up to break the cure. This money line is too high.