Free Picks for Friday, October 6th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Robert Ferringo
Connecticut (+14) over Memphis
My third-biggest college football bet last week was on Central Florida. It was an easy win as part of a 40-13 UCF blowout. Part of that bet was based on how good the Knights are. But part of it is on how bad Memphis is. And I have not seen anything from this team to make me think they should be laying two touchdowns on the road. This is a team that didn't beat FCS team Southern Illinois, at home, by more than two touchdowns. They also didn't beat UL-Monroe, also at home, by more than 10 points. So I think this line is out of whack, yet over 70 percent of the public is taking the Tigers. I know Connecticut is nothing great. But they played much better than the final suggests last week at SMU, and I see genuine improvement in this team. Connecticut is on an 0-9 ATS slide dating back to last year. This is the second-most points they have been catching in that time period. That tells me the books have been way off on this team and they are overcorrecting. I think Randy Edsall's team does enough to keep this one competitive against an overrated Memphis squad. I'm taking the points.
Raphael Esparza
Memphis / Connecticut Over 72
I know this total is a bit high, but Friday night in Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field we should see tons of points being scored. The Memphis Tigers come into this game cashing the OVER 3 out of their last 4 games, and their defense gives up and average 36.3 ppg. The Connecticut Huskies have cashed 3-straight OVER tickets, and here is another defense that gives up points of plenty as the Huskies 'D' is giving up an average of 42.6ppg their last 3 games. With both defenses playing some bad football, I see this game easily going OVER the total and I would grab this number now before the number moves to 73 or higher.
Indian Cowboy
Boise State / BYU Under 44
We gave you an easy free pick winner last week on Illinois/Nebraska Under the posted total, which was a double-digit cover, and we look to give you another easy free pick winner here. Boise State needs a big morale effort here as the team is 2-2 and 0-1 on the road, and what better way than to play fantastic on national television against a well-known team like BYU. Boise State lost by just a field goal to Washington State in overtime earlier this year and lost to a Virginia team by 19 at home - in which Virginia had massive defense and a coach who knows the Boise State Program well having been from the west coast. Boise State has a top 45 defense and just gave up 42 points at home, which has to be infuriating. So look for Boise State's defense to shape up in a big way coming off a horrible defensive performance (and a horrible loss) as they face one of the worst offenses in America in BYU. BYU has a horrendous offense, ranking outside the top 125 and outside the top 115 in both passing yards and rushing yards. Though BYU has a horrible offense, their defense is decent as they are a top 70 defense and that is what they will have to rely on behind a great home crowd as this defense should do some what well on Friday Night, which is why this total is relatively low. Look for the public to be all over the 'Over' as we fade them and take the 'Under' here.
Ray Monohan
Red Sox vs. Astros
Play: Under 8
We saw both starters struggle at times in Game 1 of this series, but here we should see a much more grind it out kind of game.
Houston throws one ace and leads it right into another. Dallas Keuchel will get the ball for the Astros and he's been dominant at home this season. He enters play 6-2 with just a 1.64 ERA this year.
On the flip side of things, Drew Pomeranz finished the season on a high note. Pomeranz won 3 of his last 4 decisions and allowed 2 runs or less in his final four appearances. Right now, he's pitching with a lot of confidence and has stepped up in big roles this season when the Red Sox needed him.
Some trends to note. Under is 6-1 in Keuchels last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 13-3 in Hernandezs last 16 games behind home plate.
Jim Feist
Golden Knights at Stars
Pick: Stars -1.5
The Vegas Golden Knights begin their first season in the NHL. The showpiece of the franchise is goalie Marc-Andre Fluery. Fluery has a two your contract and looks to help this young team along in their early years. During the preseason, the Knights scored quite frequently wit 26 goals in their six games. However, they also gave up 24 goals during the preseason. The over has been a great play at Dallas, with 17 of their last 21 games at home going over. I look for Dallas to get at least four goals here if not more. If you can play the goal and half here with the home team, that's the play.
Teddy Covers
Memphis vs. Connecticut
Play: Over 72
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Things have not broken right for Memphis in the early going. The Tigers played their opening game against Louisiana-Monroe in the midst of the remnants of Hurricane Harvey – a torrential downpour throughout most of the contest. They had to cancel their game the next week because of Hurricane Irma in Florida. Following the wild upset win over UCLA, the Tigers looked flat against Southern Illinois the following week. Last week, facing UCF, the Tigers got whipped, turning the ball over four times on offense while allowing more than 600 yards on defense.
Make no mistake about it – Memphis is loaded with the type of skill position talent that UConn can’t cover. With QB Riley Ferguson returning for his senior year, 103 career starts back on the offensive line and the likes of RB’s Darrell Henderson and Patrick Taylor (combined more than 6.5 yards per carry) WR’s Anthony Miller, Phil Mayhue and Tony Pollard (37 catches between them) and TE Joey Magnifico (2nd leading receiver), this team is flat out loaded with weapons. Memphis averaged 39 points per game last year and 40 ppg in 2015. They hung 41 on UConn the last time these teams met, and there’s little reason to think the Tigers won’t approach or exceed 40 this time around.
UConn’s defense has been horrific this season. Head coach Randy Edsall called out his team’s toughness prior to the Huskies visit to SMU last Saturday: “Sometimes guys either have it or they don’t. I mean, that’s ‘here,'” Edsall said, pointing to his chest. “That’s what you’ve got in here, and it shows up real quick in this sport. If you’re not a physically tough kid, this isn’t the sport you should play.” The end result? One week after allowing 596 yards and 41 points to East Carolina, last week, the Huskies allowed 49 points and 498 yards to the Mustangs. This is not a defense primed for a dramatic improvement anytime soon.
That leaves us with only one question: Can UConn trade points with a potent offense? If the Huskies can’t, the right play here is on Memphis. If the Huskies can, the better play would probably be on the Over. UConn has a returning senior starter at QB in Bryant Sherriffs, who has completed 69% of his passes so far with an 8:2 TD-INT ratio. Five different receivers have caught a TD pass of 45 yards or longer; an offense showing legit big play ability after averaging a woeful 15 points per game last year. They’re playing much faster than last year in coordinator Rhett Lashlee’s first season running the offense, and they’re facing a defense that has shown repeated vulnerability. Expect enough offense from the Huskies to keep this game relatively competitive….and to send it flying Over the total. Expect a shootout.
Jack Brayman
My free play for tonight is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Los Angeles Dodgers. And don't bother listing pitchers in this one - it is the dumbest move in baseball when you're playing this big of an underdog, trust me.
While the Los Angeles Dodgers may have had the best record in baseball, there was no team that beat L.A. more than these Snakes. And to win this series, Arizona must get off and running immediately with a win in this game.
The Diamondbacks, who won 11 of 19 from Los Angeles this season, got warmed up for this series to the tune of an 11-8 slugfest victory over the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday night in the National League wild-card game.
Tonight, I won't be surprised if the Snakes end up chasing Clayton Kershaw. Though I'm not listing pitchers, it's important to note Los Angeles' ace is 4-7 with a 4.55 ERA in 18 postseason games (14 starts).
I'll take the Diamondbacks in this one, with a big price on the one team that beat the best team in baseball the most.
2* DIAMONDBACKS
Wunderdog
Chicago @ Washington
Pick: Chicago +1.5
The Chicago Cubs begin their quest to repeat as World Series Champions tonight in Washington. The pitching matchup in this one has Stephen Strasburg taking the hill for the Nationals, and he will go up against Kyle Hendricks. Both have had success against tonight's opponent as Hendricks has a career mark of 2-2 vs. Washington in five starts with a nifty 2.67 ERA. Strasburg has been equally impressive vs. Chicago where he has logged career numbers that are 1-1 in five starts with a 2.08 ERA. These numbers are basically a wash, so I look for this one to be played tight, and a one-run outcome either way appears to be the most likely, serving us with value on the plus side of the runline. The Nationals have won four times vs. the Cubs behind Strasburg, and three of the four wins have been by a single run.
Micah Roberts
Memphis / UConn Under 72.5
While evaluating reasons why Memphis should cover this game, I came to the realization that there were better reasons to side with the Under. This is a massive total and it's understood that they both allow more than 36 ppg, but I see the Memphis defense being able slow UConn just enough to keep it Under. I think the total should be closer to 66 so I feel there is some value.
Tommy Brunson
Monster total posted for tonight's AAC meeting between Memphis and Connecticut, but with the Tigers dealing with some defensive injuries, and the Huskies dealing with a porous secondary, I say let's side with the Over for this Friday nighter!
Memphis has played 3 of their 4 games this year Over the total, and they have been Over the total in 7 of their last 10 since last season.
Connecticut is Over the total in 3 straight this season, and 4 of their last 5 since last season.
Series numbers show both the 2013 and the 2014 meetings having landed Over the posted price.
Yeah, a total in the 70's can be a little daunting, but the elements are there for the Tigers and the Huskies to light up the scoreboard and land Over the total, so play it that way!
1* MEMPHIS-CONNECTICUT OVER
Joey Juice
It's an away game for the Boise State Broncos as they travel to play the BYU Cougars.
The fact is plain and simple that the Cougars don't belong on the same field as the Broncos and both teams know it, and so do the lines makers. Bet this game early because the line is going nothing but up.
Boise State is well-rested from their bye last week, plenty of time to forget their loss to Virginia 42-23 in front of their home faithful on 9/22/17.
Meanwhile BYU is down to their 3rd string quarterback, and has recorded 4 straight losses,.the latest one a complete annihilation on the road by Utah State 40-24.
The Broncos pretty much own the overall series as they've won 5 out of 7 meetings including their last one on 10/20/16 at home.
A look inside the numbers tells you all you need to know.
BYU doesn't play well outside of their conference as they are 0-6 ATS last 6 non-conference games. In fact they haven't been playing well against anyone lately, they are 0-6 ATS last 6 games overall. They cannot cover this game.
Boise State is the free pick.
4* BOISE STATE
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is on the Washington Nationals Run Line, as they'll walk all over the Chicago Cubs in this series opener.
I have to side with Washington's ace, as Strasburg went 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA in 28 starts this season, and was perhaps the hottest pitcher in Major League Baseball during the second half. His heat-seeking missles helped him post a sterling 0.86 ERA, with 76 strikeouts in 62.2 innings over 10 starts since the All-Star break. He knows how important Game 1 is any best-of-7 series, so I don't see the Cubs getting much off him in this one.
The run support will be there, against Hendricks, who will make his first postseason start since Game 7 of the World Series. Washington had the fourth-best batting average in baseball, with a .266 clip, a number that improves in D.C., where the Nationals hit .287 - second-best in the bigs.
Take the Nationals Run Line here.
1* NATIONALS -1.5
Jack Brayman
My free play for tonight is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Los Angeles Dodgers. And don't bother listing pitchers in this one - it is the dumbest move in baseball when you're playing this big of an underdog, trust me.
While the Los Angeles Dodgers may have had the best record in baseball, there was no team that beat L.A. more than these Snakes. And to win this series, Arizona must get off and running immediately with a win in this game.
The Diamondbacks, who won 11 of 19 from Los Angeles this season, got warmed up for this series to the tune of an 11-8 slugfest victory over the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday night in the National League wild-card game.
Tonight, I won't be surprised if the Snakes end up chasing Clayton Kershaw. Though I'm not listing pitchers, it's important to note Los Angeles' ace is 4-7 with a 4.55 ERA in 18 postseason games (14 starts).
I'll take the Diamondbacks in this one, with a big price on the one team that beat the best team in baseball the most.
2* DIAMONDBACKS
Brandon Lee
Cubs vs. Nationals
Play: Cubs +148
Chicago is worth a look at this price in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Nationals. The Cubs postseason run last year is a big advantage for this team and they know they can go into Washington and get a win after winning Game 7 of the World Series on the road. I loved the decision by Chicago to with Kyle Hendricks as their Game 1 starter. Hendricks owns a 2.83 ERA in 11 road starts and closed out the season with a 0.96 ERA in his last 3 starts. This Cubs team is also playing their best baseball of the season going into the playoffs and were the best team in the NL down the stretch run. Just too good a price here with Chicago, as I think this should be a lot closer to even money.