Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Friday, October 7th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Marc Lawrence
Tulane vs. Central Florida
Play: Tulane +14
Edges - Green Wave: Coach Willie Fritz is 10-5 ATS in away games. Golden Knights: 0-4 ATS as DD favorites off BB SUATS wins; and were outstatted 518-370 yards in 18-point victory over East Carolina last week. With UCF 3-8 ATS as a conference favorite of more than 10 points in games off BB wins, we recommend a 1* play on Tulane.
Rob Vinciletti
Dodgers vs. Nationals
Play: Dodgers -146
The Dodgers start things off with Clatyon Kershaw tonight and he has a 1.63 Era this year and has allowed just 1 run over his last 3 starts vs Washington spanning 24 innings. Scherzer has been solid vs LA but not quite as good as Kershaw. The Dodgers are 17-8 as a road favorite in this range and the Nationals are nursing injured players who have been out awhile back into the lineup. LA has won 5 of the 6 meetings this year and looks poised to take game one.
Dave Cokin
Dodgers vs. Nationals
Play: Dodgers -145
What a great mound matchup today at Washington as Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer hook up in a classic confrontation in the Dodgers-Nationals series opener.
As great as Kershaw is, I’m not sure anyone should be this much chalk on the road against Scherzer. I’m not really taking the post-season ledger of Kershaw into account here. Scherzer is simply too good to be this much of a dog at home.
But everything else points to the Dodgers and that’s why I like them to take a 1-0 lead in this series. Let’s face it. the Nats are really beat up right now. Wilson Ramos is done for the year, and that’s big. Bryce Harper is struggling and there appears to be little question he’s playing hurt. Daniel Murphy had to sit out several end of the regular season games, and while he’ll be back in the lineup today, he’s certainly not in perfect health. Ryan Zimmerman is a shell of what he used to be and isn’t hitting at all. Jayson Werth will play but he’s nursing a bad back and slumped pretty badly at the end of the season. Danny Espinosa has been all but an automatic out since the All-Star break.
This is simply a Washington lineup that has too many holes in it right now to have a reasonable chance to succeed, and facing a motivated and now healthy Clayton Kershaw seems too arduous a task in my view.
I made the price here Dodgers -160, so it’s just short of the differential I prefer when making a play. I’ll clearly be monitoring the line movement in this game as if some home dog money shows and the line drops a bit, I’ll go ahead and make the play. In any event, I certainly lean to the Dodgers to get the jump on the Nats with the Game One win.
Bob Harvey
Dodgers vs. Nationals
Play: Over 6
Clayton Kershaw looks to snap out of his postseason slump when the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the Washington Nationals in Game of their best-of-five National League division series. First pitch is set for 5:30 PM ET at Nationals Park where LA is a -150 moneyline favorite. The total is six.
The Dodgers (91-71, 38-43 road) won the Western Davison title but were in the final series of the regular season. Meanwhile the Nationals (95-67, 50-31 home) won the NL East going away.
Kershaw (12-4, 1.69 ERA) is a three-time NL Cy Young Award winner, but is 2-6 with a 4.59 ERA in 13 career postseason appearances. He has thrived against Washington with a 10-2 mark and 2.02 ERA in 14 career appearances, including a victory June 20 when he gave up one run and six hits over seven innings. Kershaw missed more than two months with back issues but finished the season strong by compiling an 0.72 ERA over his last four starts.
Max Scherzer (20-7, 2.96 ERA)who is the frontrunner for the Cy Young award - has experienced mixed results in the playoffs going 4-3 with a 3.73 ERA in 12 career appearances. He Scherzer didn't face the Dodgers this season and is 2-4 with a 3.29 ERA in 10 career appearances (eight starts) against Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are 5-16 in their past 21 road games but have a pair of strong trends vs. the Nationals. LA is 7-1 in the last eight meetings and 10-1 in Kershaw’s past 11 outings against Washington. The Blue Crew is also 15-5 vs. the NL East last 20.
The Nationals are 12-5 in their last 17 home games.
David Banks
Clemson @ Boston College
Pick: Clemson -17
Ranked third in the nation and coming off a huge win over Louisville last week, Clemson cannot afford to take its foot off of the accelerator. They travel to Boston College where they will face the 3-2 Eagles. Boston College has yet to win an ACC game – they are 0-2 in conference play – but they are well known for playing great defense and could catch the Tigers on a down week.
Last year, Clemson and quarterback Deshaun Watson had no problems deciphering the Eagles defense. Watson threw for 420 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-17 Clemson win. The Heisman candidate is coming off of a solid effort against Louisville where he threw for 306 yards, but he did throw three interceptions. Running back Wayne Gallman (366 yards rushing) needs to become more of a factor and take some of the pressure off of Watson.
What Boston College has this year that they did not last season is an offense. The Eagles are averaging 29.3 points per game led by Kentucky transfer Patrick Towles at quarterback. In a 35-3 win over Buffalo last week, Towles was 14-of-25 passing for 234 yards and, most importantly, zero interceptions. He will face a much more athletic defense on Saturday, one that gave Heisman hopeful Lamar Jackson of Louisville fits.
Boston College will have to play a near perfect game to even have a shot at beating the 5-0 Tigers. The Golden Eagles will have the advantage of playing at home on a Saturday night.
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Friday goes early on the Blue Jays-Rangers to land Over the total once again.
Flashback to last season, and the A.L.D.S. when these teams met and played the full 5 games in their best-of-five series. The Over was 3-1-1.
Yesterday? The Jays post 10 runs and take the game Over the total by themselves.
Look for the bats to continue to connect today with JA Happ and Yu Darvish on the hill.
Happ enjoyed the first 20 win season of his career this year, and he did limit his ERA to just 2.41 over his final 3 starts of the regular season, but 2 of the 3 starts did also play Over the total.
In fact, 4 of his last 6 starts overall, including 3 of his last 4 away from the Rogers Centre also landed Over the total.
With Texas now faced with the prospect of going to Canada down 0-2, look for the Rangers to get the bats cranking quickly today.
Yu Darvish sat out the entire 2015 season, and has come back this year to record a 7-5 mark. Darvish went 6-2 at home this season, but his ERA at Globe Life was over 4, and 3 of his last 4 starts in his home park did land Over the total.
The track record suggests playing the Over today, so that is exactly what I am going to do.
Blue Jays-Rangers make it 2 games played, and 2 games Over the total.
4* TORONTO-TEXAS OVER
Chase Diamond
San Francisco at Chicago
Play: Chicago -176
Big series as the Giants after a huge win at the Mets take on the Chicago Cubs. Cubs won 103 games this season and are really gonna out class the Giants tonight who just don't have the fire power or pitching this season. Jon Lester goes for the Cubs tonight he is 19-5 with a 2.79 ERA to think he has this ERA pitching at hitter friendly Wrigley Field is a major accomplishment. Cubs fans will be electric tonight. Johnny Cueto goes for the Giants he has very good numbers too but his health is in question tonight. Cubs just have to get to the 8th inning as they have the bullpen that is highlighted by Chapman since coming over to the Cubs Chapman's ERA is a just 1.01, with 15.5 strikeouts per 9 IP. Lester is 13-2 at home this season and tonight he will add a win to that list. Public is backing the Cubs and so will we in game 1.
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers -123
After losing Game 1 of this series 10-1 to the Blue Jays, I fully expect the Texas Rangers to take Game 2 and even the series here Friday afternoon. This is a very fair price for the Rangers at home with their best starters on the mound.
Yu Darvish has gone 7-5 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.116 WHIP in 17 starts this season. He has struck out 132 batters in 100 1/3 innings.
Darvish has clearly enjoyed facing the Blue Jays, going 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in seven career starts. He has given up just 4 earned runs while striking out 32 over 21 2/3 innings in his last three starts against them.
Texas is 8-0 (+8.6 Units) against the money line after two straight games with one or less extra base hits this season. The Blue Jays are 1-9 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Rangers are 8-2 in Darvish's last 10 starts.
Ross Benjamin
Giants @ Cubs
Play: Under 7
Johnny Cueto has been in terrific form over his last 5 regular season starts. During those outings, Cueto has compiled a terrific 1.78 ERA. The Giants right-hander has made 1 start at Wrigley Field this season and it was a stellar performance, evidenced by him allowing 1 earned run on 5 hits in 7.0 innings of work.
Jon Lester has been magnificent in 14 starts at Wrigley Field this season, evidenced by a superb 1.74 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in those outings. Included in those starts was a complete game performance against San Francisco on 9/2. On that day he allowed the Giants just 1 earned run on 3 hits. Lester is 9-1 under the total in his last 10 starts overall with an exemplar 1.47 ERA. He’s also gone under the total in 5 straight starts at Wrigley Fiels while posting a sensational 1.27 ERA and 0.74 WHIP.
Dave Price
New Mexico +18.5
I'll recommend the New Mexico Lobos as my free pick Friday night against the Boise State Broncos. Bob Davie has completely turned around this New Mexico program. He led them to a bowl last year, and they are just as good this season. Last year, New Mexico beat Boise State 31-24 on the road as 31-point underdogs. In fact, the Lobos have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Broncos over the past five seasons. They only lost by 11 at home as 17.5-point dogs in 2014 as well. They can control the ball with their running game, which is averaging 347 yards per game and 6.5 per carry thus far in 2016. Look for the Lobos to cover their 6th straight in this series.
Mike Rose
Boise St at New Mexico
Play: Boise St -17
The Broncos only suffered two losses on the “Smurf Turf” last season. One of them occurred as 31 point favorites against these same Lobos, their first in seven all-time tries. Boise's O-Line has done a solid job protecting Brett Rypien allowing just a single sack per game (No. 17), and the defense has excelled in shutting down opposing ground games which bodes terrifically for them in this spot against a one-dimensional Lobos outfit.
It’s tough to not back a home dog of this magnitude that can run the tar out of the pigskin. Rushing dogs are some of my favorites to take positions on, but something’s just rubbing me the wrong way with this UNM squad. The defense has given up points in bunches on a number of occasions, and the fact that it blew a 21-0 lead at Rutgers so easily is bothersome to say the least.
Boise State was embarrassed in last year’s game. Honestly, I don’t think the team has ever been defeated when favored by that much since the “Smurf Turf” became a thing. The Broncos possess exactly what it takes to take it to this Lobos team, a great run defense and balanced offense that can get to the home team through the air with Rypien and on the ground with McNichols. I forecast a 21 or more point win with the Broncos relentlessly picking apart a very weak Lobos defense while shutting down their ground game.
Harry Bondi
BOSTON COLLEGE +17 over Clemson
Following a devastating season-opening loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland, the Eagles have rebounded to cover three of their last four games and with the No. 1 ranked defense in the land, we’ll grab the points. You really can’t expect a fully focused effort here from the Tigers, who come off an epic home win over Louisville and now travel to face an inferior opponent on a short week. The trends are also with us as Clemson has covered just three of their last 10 as a road favorite while BC has covered five in a row as a home dog of 15 or more.
Vegas Butcher
San Francisco Giants +164
As great as Lester has been, Cueto is right there with him. He comes in ranked #10 with a 3.4 e-ERA. Lester is 18th with a 3.5 e-ERA. Chicago has the advantage offensively and the home-field edge, but even so, clearly they’re way over-priced. Let’s see how the youngsters handle the playoff pressure and the high expectations that come with it.
Bob Valentino
After nailing my free play for Thursday night on the Over in the Western Kentucky-Louisiana Tech contest, I'm taking the Over in the N.L. Division Series clash between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals.
Yes, there are two aces on the hill, and yes, they're both annually in the Cy Young chatter when the season begins. But this is the postseason, and there is only one way these two teams will shine in this series: offense.
The statement has to be made immediately, as both offenses need to come out guns ablazing, in order to set the tone for the rest of the series.
And since Clayton Kershaw rolls in with a 4.59 career postseason ERA, I think he is capable of giving up a few runs to this explosive lineup. He catches a Nationals team that ranked 11th in the majors with 203 home runs this season.
After clinching the NL West title, the Dodgers lost five of six during the final week of the season, costing them a shot at home-field advantage in this series. But they did rank 11th in the bigs in September, with a .259 batting average. Now they have no choice but to come out swinging sticks against Scherzer, who will be looking for his first postseason victory in a Nationals uniform.
Play this one high, as it'll creep past 6 runs.
1* Dodgers-Nationals Over