Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Los Angeles Dodgers, over the Washington Nationals, and I want you listing both scheduled starting pitchers: Clayton Kershaw over Max Scherzer.
Now I know all about Kershaw's past, as he's bringing with him a 4.59 career postseason ERA. But I think he will be much better in this postseason, and will get it started right, against a Nationals team he fired seven innings of one-run ball against on June 20.
The Dodgers are playing their fourth different NLDS opponent in four years, and open this best-of-5 series aganst the Nationals on the road for the first time since 2013. But if there was one year the Dodgers were going to make the World Series, this is it.
I know everyone is dying to see a Nationals-Cubs showdown, with Bryce Harper against Kris Bryant - a battle of Las Vegas product by the way - but the Dodgers have other plans.
And I say this every postseason - in NBA, NHL and MLB - Game 1 is important to the road team more than anything. Game 3 is important to the home team. Same team, same goals - win games 1 and 3.
Now, the other reason this is a must-win, the Dodgers were 22-24 in games started by opposing left-handers. Scherzer is a righty, and the Nationals have just one southpaw. So rather than stumbling against a righty, Los Angeles will be out to win this game and carry momentum in tomorrow.
I like L.A. in this matinee.
2* DODGERS
Eric Schroeder
Congratulations San Francisco, you made it past the Mets.
Your prize is the best team in baseball, and the Chicago Cubs are going to blow past the Giants. I don't care about what the so-called experts are saying, that Frisco is the one team the Cubbies will have problems with.
Well, the Cubs have won seven of the last eight meetings in Chicago. And, this season, the baby bears won four of the seven battles - including three of four at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs are going to take care of business on the Run Line tonight, as they open the series with an easy win.
1* CUBS -1.5
Brandon Lee
Cubs -172
The Giants won the NL Wild Card play-in game behind another amazing start from Madison Bumgarner. The Cubs know that these two games at home are critical, as they don't want to be down in the series with Bumgarner looming in Game 3. I look for Chicago to get it done at home behind Jon Lester, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, especially at home, where he's 10-2 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.890 WHIP in 15 starts. On the flip side of this, I just don't trust Cueto against this loaded Cubs offense in what is going to a be a very hostile environment at Wrigley Field.
Jimmy Boyd
SMU +16
I like the value we are getting here on SMU catching over two touchdowns. This is too many points for a Tulsa team that doesn't play any defense to be laying. Keep in mind we have seen this line drop, despite the majority of the bets coming in on the Hurricane. That's a great sign the sharp money is on the Mustangs.
SMU has struggled offensively since starting quarterback Matt Davis was lost for the year. Still, I think they are going to be able generate enough offense to keep this game close.
In Tulsa’s last game they gave up 41 points to a Fresno State team that hasn’t been good offensively. The Bulldogs have scored 20 or less in their 3 other games against FBS foes. They also rank 97th in the country in total offense at just 363.0 ypg.
In comparison, SMU is 70th in total offense with a respectable 416.ypg. Keep in mind that’s with 3 games against Baylor, TCU and Temple.
While Tulsa does appear to have an edge here coming off a bye, this isn’t a great spot. The Golden Hurricane have a massive game on deck against Houston, who is No. 6 in the country. I just think they are going to have a difficult time taking SMU seriously. Especially with the Mustangs coming in minus their quarterback and off a couple of bad losses.
I also think the SMU defense could surprise some people in this game. While they allowed 45 points to Temple, they only gave up 368 total yards. Keep in mind they were tied 6-6 at the half against Baylor and only trailed TCU 3-6 at the half.
Turnovers could also play a big role in this game. Tulsa has gave the ball away 10 times in their last 3 games. The Mustangs defense has been an opportunistic bunch. They have 14 turnovers on the season, recording 3 or more in 4 of their 5 games.
It’s also worth pointing out that Tulsa hasn’t been great at covering the number in this spot. The Golden Hurricane are just 14-32 ATS in their last 46 at home against a team with a losing record. Tulsa is also just 14-37 in their last 61 after 2 straight games where 60 or more points were scored. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a bye week, so the extra rest hasn’t helped them in previous seasons.
SPORTS WAGERS
CLEVELAND -107 over Boston
After a mostly-disappointing, oft-criticized first season in Boston, left-hander David Price takes the mound with the Red Sox down 1-0. Cleveland patched together a Game 1 win behind manager Terry Francona's bold moves and the bullpen's brilliance, and now the Indians turn to ace Corey Kluber in Game 2 with a relief corps that could use a light workload.
Francona did everything he could to win Game 1 and got the job done, but now he's short-handed for Game 2. Andrew Miller and Cody Allen each threw a season-high 40 pitches, meaning one or both of the Indians' top two relievers could be unavailable. That’s an assumption however, and Miller said after the game, he’s more than ready to go again. In any event, Kluber completed seven or more innings in 19 of 32 starts this season, although he did so in neither of his final two starts.Clearly the Indians would love to get a lengthy outing for Kluber and give Francona a chance to handle the late-inning bullpen usage more traditionally, but working deep into a game against the Red Sox's lineup is never a sure thing. Assuming that Miller and Allen are both unavailable or at least limited, the Indians' next-best bullpen options are Bryan Shaw, Dan Otero, and Jeff Manship.
Price pitched much better than his 3.99 ERA suggests, leading the league with 230 innings and posting a 228/50 K/BB ratio with a 2.90 DRA. None of that will matter much to Red Sox fans if the $217 million ace can't come up big in Game 2 and he's famously struggled in the playoffs throughout his career, going 2-7 with a 5.14 ERA. Whereas the Indians will give Kluber every chance to work through issues, expect the Red Sox to have Price on a relatively short leash. Price taking the mound likely means Francona will go into platoon mode, bringing right-handed hitters Rajai Davis and Brandon Guyer off the bench to replace Tyler Naquin and Lonnie Chisenhall. Switch-hitter Abraham Almonte would also have been a platoon option in a matchup like this one, but he's ineligible for the playoffs.
Kluber vs. Price certainly has a Game 1 vibe, matching up a pair of former Cy Young winners. The price on Cleveland (now 54-28 at home this year) is short Cleveland because it’ Boston and because Francona possibly being without the Miller/Allen hammer in the late innings. Ultimately, this game comes down to Boston getting production from a lineup that has thrived all season and getting a strong pitching performance from a pitcher they're paying like a superstar. We wouldn’t count on that, however. In October, runs are more difficult to come by. In October, good pitching almost always wins over good hitting. Kluber is truly a stud while Price has playoff ghosts to deal with it. In an evenly priced game, give us the better pitcher, the team with momentum and the team that doesn’t lose at home very often.
Toronto +110 over TEXAS
You really have to appreciate what the Blue Jays accomplished yesterday. Up against it after an emotionally charged week, Toronto went into Arlington and absolutely demolished a team that was licking their chops to get at them. Now Toronto has the Rangers by the you know what. They have momentum, they have put some serious doubt into the minds of the Rangers, not because of just one playoff game but because the Jays have defeated the Rangers in four straight playoff games now.
Of more significance, however, is that perhaps after a year of offensively underachieving, the Jays are peaking offensively at precisely the right time. They had some outstanding at bats against Cole Hamels. They also led the league in walks and jacks. Combine patience and power with plate discipline and you have the potential for crooked numbers and we have to trust that the Blue Jays are feeling pretty god about their chances for a Game 2 victory.
There is no question that the Rangers have the edge on the mound here for Game 2 but it may not matter because J.A. Happ has been winning games all year for Toronto. Happ is coming off a six inning, four-hit, two run gem at Fenway in a high pressure game. He’s allowed two runs or less in five straight. And even though Happ is the second best starter here, we’re more interested in the psychological edge that the Jays will take into this game.
Yu Darvish has been taken deep nine times over his past 11 starts. He was taken deep three times in one game by the Orioles and twice in one game two other times over that span as well. He’s allowed three runs or more five times over his final 10 starts including seven runs to the A’s and five runs to the Astros. Of the 17 games that he started this season, only three times did Darvish throw more than 100 pitches in the game so a key here for the Jays will be to work his pitch count. They are very capable of doing that. Lastly, the Rangers' bullpen was not able to continue its no-earned-runs-allowed dance with the devil in yesterday’s opener. That’s another breakthrough in Toronto’s favor and now the Jays smell blood.
San Francisco +165 over CHICAGO
The thing about the playoffs is that the best teams don’t always win. That’s what makes them fun. It’s also what makes them terrible. If we were interested in crowning the best team in 2016, we could’ve wrapped this season up two months ago. The Chicago Cubs (103-58-1) aren’t just the best team in this series, they’re the best team in baseball, by a long shot. That was clear as early as August, and you could make a good case that it was clear well before that, too. But the point of the playoffs isn’t to affirm the record of the best team in baseball. The point of the playoffs is to take baseball all the way up to 11—to crush a game best understood and appreciated, by far, in the collective memory of a hundred hot summer evenings, into a five-or seven-game series, and see what stories come out the other end. The playoffs are great. They bear little relation to the way the game is played, most of the year, but somehow manage to bring out its best qualities all the same. Two teams. Two almighty narratives. No way to predict the outcome in advance but as Madison Bumgarner said in his interview after that sick performance against the Mets on Wednesday night when asked about what he thought about playing in Chicago, “We know the Cubs had a great record but October is different. Anything can happen in October”.
San Francisco’s lineup is pretty much as you’d expect it to be. Brandon Belt and Buster Posey are the offensive main events, as they’ve been for the better part of the last half-decade in San Francisco, and they’re supplemented this year by strong performances from newcomer Denard Span and old hands Brandon Crawford and Hunter Pence. Angel Pagan and Joe Panik, too, have been solid contributors at the plate. Keep an eye on Belt, in particular: He’s been hot lately, and can carry the team when he’s going well. Even if he isn’t, this is a strong, long lineup without an obvious weakness—although it is deprived of stars.
Not so on the other side of the field. The Cubs’ crew is led by MVP candidates Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo (Bryant will win, and it won’t be close) and supplemented by stellar performances around the diamond from Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, and midseason call-up Willson Contreras. Miguel Montero, Addison Russell, and (especially) Jason Heyward have been less spectacular with the bat, but this is still an offense that put up over 800 runs during the regular season. They’re exceptionally patient, know when to wait for their pitch and when to be aggressive, and don’t get cheated. Sure, at times, they’ve shown a vulnerability to pitchers with the ability to pound the corners at the bottom of both sides of the plate, but they’re hardly unique in that.
The real question about this lineup is how it’ll interact with the Chicago bench, especially at catcher: In Game 1, David Ross will catch Jon Lester, pushing Montero to the bench as a pinch-hitting option against the Giants’ plethora of righty relievers. Meanwhile, Jorge Soler—who’s battling a hamstring injury—is unlikely to start either of the first two games against righties Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, which means Contreras is likely in left for Game 1.
Projecting these lineups isn’t difficult. Both groups are good, but Chicago’s is better, and it’s not close. They’ve averaged 5.0 runs a game to the Giants’ 4.4, and outpace them in on-base percentage (.343 to .329), slugging percentage (.429 to .398), and True Average (.287 to .268) as well. Once again, though it’s the playoffs. Anything could happen. Some things will.
Bruce Bochy is going to end up in the Hall of Fame. That’s true regardless of what happens over the next seven days. He’s taken two clubs to the World Series (remember the Padres in 1998?) and won three rings along the way. He’s proven, time and again, that he’s able to get the best out of his players, and he doesn’t have any egregious tactical or strategic shortcomings. Sure, he can get a bit aggressive in his bullpen management, sometimes fine-tuning where a broader stroke would have worked just fine, but he’s good. Very good, in fact, and he’s managing a squad that has its energy just where he wants it—focused, alive, and hungry.
Joe Maddon has a very different challenge. His Cubs knew they’d be in this exact spot two months ago, and have been playing low-intensity games for a while now. As the team tinkered with various roster ideas for the postseason, some grumbling emerged from the Cubs’ clubhouse—centered around Jake Arrieta and Montero—that the team was being managed like a spring-training squad. Maddon’s experienced enough—and trusted enough—to put those best-team-in-baseball blues behind him, but it’s worth wondering if the Cubs will be able to hit the mark in terms of postseason energy and intensity. Probable answer is that they’ll be fine but ya never know. Look at the Rangers yesterday off a layoff and off an early clinch.
Maddon, like Bochy, doesn’t have any obvious weaknesses as a strategist, although—unlike Bochy, who works substitutions exceptionally well—he doesn’t have any shining strengths, either. His contribution to his club’s success will be in large part determined by his ability to get the team in the right frame of mind for each game, and manage the egos that go into the Cubs’ three-headed catching situation. There will—probably—be no problems here, but keep a close eye on the Cubs’ on-deck circle late in games. The direction Maddon goes, especially in the nexus between catcher and left, will be important. Edge to Bochy.
Johnny Cueto has an aresenal of pitches unlike any pitcher in the game. He can throw seven different pitches for strikes and keep hitters completely off balance. Give those hitters five days of inactivity in a real time game and facing Cueto becomes even more problematic. Cueto may not be better than Jon Lester but he's at the very worst, Lester's equal and San Fran is taking back a big tag.
It’s not rocket science. The Cubs have a better lineup, a better bench, better starting pitching, and better defense than the Giants. The Giants probably have a slight edge at skipper and the bullpens are a wash. With those comparisons, how could any reasonable person pick anyone except the Cubs to win? Well, they couldn’t. If they are picking the Giants, they’re knowingly taking a chance that the unlikely answer will be the correct answer, and it just might. In the playoffs, you just never know. You see, the Giants have an uncanny ability to manage their roster and lineups in just the right way, come October. And whatever it is they do in that clubhouse, it’s worked for them in each of the last 12 (!) playoff series they’ve competed in (including two Wild Card games). That’s an extraordinary run, and not one dismissed lightly, even though we have no hard indication that teams can prepare for playoff success. The fact is the Giants are a deep, balanced team, and they could easily go on a run and at this price for Game 1, they are absolutely worth a bet. Giants are playing with house money.
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW MEXICO +18 over Boise State
Boise State and Alabama are more alike than one may think. Even if the Broncos come to us by way of the Mountain West Conference, the Greatest Smurfs on Turf are without question a premiere name brand team in college football. Typically, when you get teams of this pedigree, one must pay a heavy price to buy in. When teams of this nature continue to win and look dominant, the propensity is that much greater. Boise State is finally looking like the Boise State that has consistently haunted the now defunct BCS like the Ghost of Christmas past tormented Ebenezer Scrooge. The Broncos are sitting pretty at 4-0 and with their gallop to prominence, they have earned a top-25 ranking to supplement their shiny undefeated mark. With the Broncos appearing more and more like the Broncos of the Jared Zabransky and Kellen Moore era, this market will rationalize giving away any amount of points to any opponent Boise State may come across that is not in a Power Conference. Queue, New Mexico a lowly 2-2 team that recently fell to its arch nemesis New Mexico State on the road while also losing to Rutgers in Piscataway as well.
The Lobos come in off a win against San Jose State but that is their only victory over a FBS opponent to date. New Mexico could not be a better candidate to sneak attack the Broncos or at the bare minimum keep this contest closer than suggested. New Mexico owns a win over Boise State in the most recent encounter between the two in 2015. The upset was pulled off in uncanny fashion, as the triumph was characterized by the Lobos storming into Boise and stealing a win as a 31-point underdog. The Lobos covered as 18-point 'dog in 2014, covered as 38-point 'dog in 2013 and lost by 3 as 24-point 'dog in 2012. For whatever reason, the Broncs have difficult playing this rival, especially in Albuquerque. The Lobos feature a tremendously successful rushing attack, which figures to bode well here when taking back points like this. Figure the Lobos to play keep away and to keep the clock moving in an effort to shorten the game and wear down the Broncs defense. What we know for sure is that win or lose, we are getting inflated points in this Friday night special with the Lobos and we find it difficult to refuse such generosity.
Micah Roberts
Giants / Cubs Under 7
I don't know what happened to Jon Lester in his last start against the Reds, but it was extremely out of character from what we've seen since the All-Star break. He was on a run of eight straight starts allowing one run or less before allowing five runs at Cincy on Saturday. It was the Cubs second loss behind Lester in 14 starts. It was also ended a streak of nine straight Unders behind Lester. I feel pretty good about the Giants situation and Johnny Cueto is in nice form right now now with the Cubs winning his last four starts allowing a total of six runs between them.
Wunderdog
Boston vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland +102
Boston collapsed down the stretch, blowing home field for this series. It hurt them last night, having to open the playoffs on the road. Boston was favored but lost Game 1 as the pitching was shaky and the offense looked tight at the plate. They also lost the managerial battle, which is no surprise, as Terry Francona made the key move to bring Andrew Miller in early while John Farrell's relief moves gave up one key run -- and that was the difference in a 5-4 game. The Red Sox turn to David Price, who is 2-7 in the playoffs with a 5.12 ERA. Some guys rise to the occasion and some want to hide. He has also never won a postseason start, with the wins coming in relief. This Cleveland offense finished fifth in baseball in runs scored, eighth in on-base percentage and ninth in slugging. And the bullpen is outstanding, closing it out last night, making the Indians 83-1 with a lead after eight innings this season. Cleveland is 54-28 at home and goes with ace Corey Kluber (18-9, 3.14 ERA), one of the best pitchers in the majors after the All-Star break, registering a 9-1 record with a 2.52 ERA in 14 starts. The Indians are on a 42-16 run at home, including 37-17 against a team with a winning record. With the Red Sox on a 2-8 run at Cleveland, back the home team that is 39-19 when Kluber starts at home.
Bruce Marshall
Tulsa -14.5
We're wondering if second-year HC Chad Morris is second-guessing his move to SMU beyond the "Carolina Gold" BBQ sauce he is finding harder to get in Big D than he did in his days as o.c. at Clemson. Two recruiting classes have not been enough to replenish the talent shortcomings on the Mustang roster, reflected painfully in recent thumping losses to TCU and Temple. Moreover, Morris is missing injured QB Matt Davis, with RS frosh Ben Hicks emerging as a college version of Ryan Fitzpatrick with nine picks in four starts. SMU's 91st-ranked "D" not stout enough to overcome that sort of weekly handicap. Tulsa's own 2nd-year HC Philip Montgomery much further along, as the potent Golden Hurricane spread has scored 45 or more vs. all foes other than Ohio State, and has a new diversion for former hippie QB Evans in electric jr. RB D'Angelo Brewer, who erupted for 242 YR in OT win at Fresno.
OC Dooley
Boston College +17
One can argue that Clemson will be in an emotional "letdown" spot on the heels of their thrilling victory against Louisville last weekend. This also marks the second time in 3 weeks that a "major" program like the Tigers have had to alter their normal schedule by suiting up on a weeknight. For a second consecutive season the DEFENSE of Boston College is near the top of all college football in key statistical categories while on the other side of the football quarterback Patrick Towles (transfer) once played with Kentucky who is part of the nation's top conference (Southeast). Not only is Boston College on a 7-1-1 "spread" roll versus nationally-ranked opposition they are a high percentage wager on a strong system. Here is a 35-9 SYSTEM (80-percent since 1992) that plays ON HOME underdogs of 14+ points like Boston College coming off consecutive outright wins, with an above .500 record on the campaign
Jeff Benton
Boise State comes to Albuquerque with an unblemished straight up mark of 4-0, but Bryan Harsin's team has not been able to keep pace against the spread, as after an opening week cover at UL Lafayette, the Broncos have failed 3 in a row - all as double digit favorite.
Looky here, the Broncos are once again a double-digit favorite, and while they may remain unbeaten straight up, I don't see their ATS mark improving.
The Lobos are just 2-2 on the year, but they did cover 2 of 3 last season as the home underdog, and their numbers in this series with Boise State suggest a "buy" sign on taking the points.
It seems Boise State's bugaboo is going up against option-attacks, as New Mexico was able to stun Boise State 31-24 last season as the +30 1/2 point underdog up in Idaho on the famed blue carpet. In fact, the Wolves have covered ALL 4 series meetings since Bob Davie took over the New Mexico program in 2012!
Until the Broncos figure out how to stop the option attack - they have also lost the past 2 meetings against option-oriented Air Force! - I don't want to be laying a big number like tonight's, especially on the road.
New Mexico plus the points the call.
1* NEW MEXICO
Dr Bob
Clemson (-17) 24 BOSTON COLLEGE 12
Boston College has a really good defense again this season, as the Eagles have yielded just 3.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl to an average team and that unit should keep this game relatively close. Clemson had not averaged more than 5.4 yppl in any of their previous games against FBS competition until erupting last week against Louisville so it’s certainly not unreasonable to think that the Eagles’ great defense can keep the Tigers from scoring too many points.
The issue for Boston College will be scoring any points, as the Eagles’ impotent attack (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) will struggle to sustain drives against an elite Clemson stop unit that’s yielded only 4.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.6 yppl against an average team.
My math model favors Clemson to win 26-10 but Boston College applies to a very good 41-3 ATS subset of a 103-43-4 ATS double-digit home underdog situation, and I can certainly see a letdown from Clemson after last week’s exciting showdown win against Louisville. In fact, the Tigers apply to a negative 63-145-6 ATS road favorite letdown situation. Boston College is a strong technical play and the line is more than fair.