Free Picks for Friday, September 15th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Doc's Sports
Arizona vs. UTEP
Play:UTEP +20½
The Wildcats are just not good enough to be laying this many points against anybody on the road. Arizona is coming off a three point home loss to Houston last Saturday and I do not see them lighting up the scoreboard in this game either. UTEP is no prize either entering this game at 0-2 but they looked better last week against Rice and they return most of their defense from last year. This may be the end of the Rich Rod era as they won only three games last year.
Indian Cowboy
South Florida (-18) over Illinois
Yes, this is a lot to lay here but we want to lay this on South Florida as we think it is a good time for them to get up to face a decent opponent, and with the nation watching this team we think they will perform in a big way. Keep in mind that Charlie Strong's team is 2-0 and ranked 21st in the nation but they are hardly impressive this year. This team just beat Stony Brook 31-17 as 35-point favorites, which is not very impressive. Plus, this team beat San Jose State in their Season Opener 42-22 as 21-point favorites (failing to cover once again) - and they were down a couple scores in that game early on as well. This is an opportunity for this team to face a competitor they will get up for and also look good doing it and to quell some fears. Illinois is a team that has exceeded expectations thus far for Lovie Smith as they were 6-point underdogs to Western Kentucky and won outright. The defense has given up just 28 points this year to their credit, which is Smith's strength. Having said that, to win this game, this team needs to score and score a lot as South Florida has a prolific offense and an improving defense under Strong. That should be the difference here in that South Florida's defense should hold against an average Illinois defense and South Florida's offense should still be able to move the ball with all the talent they have.
Ben Burns
South Florida -17½
I released my "Game Of The Week" on Illinois last week. The Illini were at home and getting points against an over-rated Western Kentucky team. They rewarded me with a 20-7 victory. The Bulls represent a far more dangerous opponent though, one which has the schedule in its favor.
Illinois plays its first road game and does so on a short week. On the other hand, USF comes in well-rested, last week's game at UConn having been postponed due to Irma. While the Illini may have a 2-0 record, they've also been outgained by an average of 309.5 to 258, in terms of yards per game. That 258 number isn't going to cut it against an explosive USF attack.
The Bulls appear to be the "real deal" and have aspirations of a New Year's Day bowl game. They won 11 games last season and are experienced on both sides of the ball. Playing on ESPN, this is their chance to show the world how good they are. Don't be surprised when this one turn's ugly. Consider laying the points with USF.
Mike Lundin
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -1½
The Baltimore Orioles took a 13-5 beating in the opener of this four-game series with the New York Yankees in the Bronx. I predict another easy win for the home team Friday night.
Baltimore hands the ball to 24 year old Gabriel Ynoa (1-1, 4.19 ERA) who will make his seventh appearance and second big league start. He was charged with three runs on seven hits in 4 2/3 frames of a 4-2 loss at Cleveland his last turn. The Yankees are perfect 5-0 in their last five games when facing a right-handed starter and they've covered the runline in 12 of their last 13 victories.
Luis Severino (12-6, 2.96 ERA) will take the ball for the Yankees. They've won 10 of his 12 starts since July 8, covering the runline in each win. Severino is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in three starts against Baltimore on the season and has the current Orioles roster limited to a .207 batting average through 121 at bats.
It's always a bit risky backing the home team on the runline, but note that the Yankees are 16-6 against the runline as a home favorite of at least -175 this season.
Ray Monohan
Arizona at San Francisco
Play: Arizona -150
The Diamondbacks are worthy of a free move here on Friday night.
The Diamondbacks are looking to cap off the top spot in the Wild Card and with Robbie Ray on the hill here, this one makes sense.
Ray has gone 3 straight games with double digit strikeouts and already has tossed 6.2 scoreless innings against the Giants this season. Ray is in the midst of a very dominating stretch right now and given how bad the Giants are at home, he gets a strong edge here.
Some trends to note. Diamondbacks are 7-0 in their last 7 road games. Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Arizona has been dominant on the road as of late, making them worth a move here.
Vic Duke
Seattle at Houston
Play: Seattle +112
Going to fade the Astros as they fall in a 1 -5 slide after their 7-0 run. Astros' pitching remains sketchy lately and Charlie Morton isn't the answer. Morton sports a swelling 4.20 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Seattle is coming off a slugfest at Texas where they accumulated 18 runs in two days of work. The Mariners had the day off and send their ace James Paxton to the hill. Paxton has been consistently strong all season despite a mediocre performance (3 ER in 6 1/3 IP) in his last turn. Paxton has been fabulous against Houston this season allowing just 1 ER over 20 IP with 20 strike outs! Paxton also won his last 4 road tilts and 5-1 on Friday. And Seattle's a bit more secure with their bullpen as of late.
Jim Mack
Illinois at South Florida
Play: Illinois +18
South Florida’s offense will be a huge test for HC Lovie Smith’s Illini defense, which looks drastically improved for 2017. After yielding 31.9 PPG and 5.5 YPP last season, Illinois has allowed just 14 PPG and 4.3 YPP in the first two games of 2017. One of the games, the more impressive of the two, was a 20-7 victory over Western Kentucky, a team that has been known for its offensive prowess in recent years. Well, USF is a bigger challenge than that even boasting stud QB Quinton Flowers. However, the Bulls offense has certainly underperformed in the early going in this first season under HC Charlie Strong. While 36.5 PPG doesn’t seem like a low total, consider that the opponents thus far have been San Jose State (who allowed 34.7 PPG last year, and Stony Brook, a FCS opponent. At this point, USF is 0-2 ATS despite enjoying a turover edge of +4 in the first two games. Perhaps this team is a bit overrated at this point, and playing as a fairly large favorite at home versus a Big Ten team doesn’t make much sense. I believe that Illinois’ remade defensive front will pose problems for the Bulls and keep them in the game as dogs.
Rob Vinciletti
Pirates vs. Reds
Play: Reds -110
The Reds have won 4 straight at home and the Pirates have lost 7 of the last 8 overall. Bailey has pitched much better at home and Road dogs like the Pirates off a road dog loss by 5+ runs scoring 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits with no errors are 2-14 vs a team also off a road loss. Look for the Reds to take the opener.
Buster Sports
UMass vs. Temple
Play: UMass +15
We believe the Owls are just giving up too many points tonight to what we understand is not a very good UMass club. Temple does not even resemble the team they were from last year. Last week they were lucky to beat FCS member Villanova and they were actually out yarded by Villanova and that is not a very good sign for the Owls at all. HC Geoff Collins is in his first year at Temple and with only nine returning starters, it looks like it’s going to take a while to get this team on track. UMass has 17 returning starters from a club that went 2-10 last year but it looks like they are getting better each game. UMass is actually 26th in passing offense this year and after Villanova put up 382 yards with no rushing offense whatsoever, we believe this is what will keep UMass close today. We are getting 15 points with UMass at the time of this writing and as we said earlier that is just way too many points.
Tommy Brunson
Well, nobody said the Friday night schedule was always going to be glamorous, but in Massachusetts and Temple we have a definite chance to make some easy money by playing against the overvalued favorite Temple Owls.
Temple lost at Notre Dame, but did bounce-back to nip in-city rival Villanova a FCS team, 16-13 by hitting a 49-yard field goal with about one minute remaining in regulation. That type of win does not inspire confidence in laying double-digits even against the 0-3 Minutemen.
UMass may not own a win yet this season, but they do have revenge on their minds, as they allowed a pair of scores in the games final two minutes back in 2015 at home to lose a 25-23 heartbreaker to the Owls.
Remember, Temple's Matt Rhule took the bigger, better deal to go to Baylor, and thus far the Owls rebuild has gone a little slower than expected under new coach Geoff Collins. The Owls mustered just 79-yards rushing in last week's nailbiter over the Wildcats, while they allowed an eye-popping 382-yards passing! UMass has a QB in Ford that can move the pigskin through the air, so why not take the points out for a spin this Friday night?
Minutemen plus the call in Philly on Friday.
3* MASSACHUSETTS
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Friday is the same team that made us money last night with my 80 Dime MLB Winner # 12 of 16 - and which matches my first-ever 80 Dime College Football Play tonight - as I'm playing the Chicago Cubs in their National League Central rivalry series against the St. Louis Cardinals.
This is an important series, and the Cubs (80-66) will be the team to watch, as it rolls in on a three-game win streak while holding off the Redbirds and Milwaukee Brewers.
The Cardinals (77-69) and Brewers (77-69) are tied for second, just three games behind the Cubs.
I won't bother with the pitchers, because when you get into a series like this, there is much more than who is on the mound. Besides, we have John Lackey (11-11) against Carlos Martinez (11-10). Does anyone really have an edge?
What I will say is this, that Chicago is 9-2 in Lackey's last 11 starts. But more importantly, the Cubs hold an 8-4 lead in the season series against the Cardinals - including a stellar 5-1 mark at Wrigley Field.
Take the Cubs in today's matinee.
3* CUBS
Joey Juice
The Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals will face off in an extremely important 3 game divisional series from Wrigley Field in Chicago. The Cardinals will go with 25-year old right-hander Carlos Martinez, while the Cubs will go with old man right-hander, John Lackey, coming off a great start last time out.
Martinez will look to shut down the Cubs again, he has allowed them only six runs in 20 innings so far in three starts this season.
A look inside the numbers shows that the St. Louis Cardinals Rock right-handers, in fact they are 6-1 in their last 7 games against righties.They are also on a roll right now, 8-2 in their last 10 games overall, while always playing well in the opening game of series, they are currently 5-0 in their last 5 series openers. Finally, Martinez has been solid for them historically after a strong outing going 40-19 in his last 59 starts following a strong outing in his previous appearance.
When we take a look at the Cubs, the numbers reveal that they are brutal at home against teams with a winning record as they are 0-4 in their last 4 home games against winning teams.
The Cardinals get the money in this one as Martinez shuts down the Cubs once again this season.
4* ST. LOUIS
BRANDON LEE
Cardinals vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -111
I'll take my chances here with Chicago at basically a pick'em at home against rival St. Louis. The Cubs will send out John Lackey, who is a bit of an afterthought in a rotation that now features Lester, Arieta, Quintana and Hendricks. The thing is, every since Lackey's starting job was on the line, he's been lights out. Cubs are 9-2 in his last 11 starts and he's got a 2.84 ERA in his last 3 outings. He's owned his former team, posting a 2.56 ERA in 8 career starts against the Cardinals (6 quality starts vs them last 2 years). St Louis sends out Carlos Martinez, who is not the same guy on the road as he is at home and he owns a mere 4.28 ERA and 1.472 WHIP in 12 starts vs Chicago.
JIMMY BOYD
Mets vs. Braves
Play:Mets +136
I like the value here with the Mets on the road in Friday's series opener against division rival Atlanta. The Braves simply shouldn't be this big of a favorite here, especially given how well New York starter Rafael Montero has been throwing the ball. While he's got just a 4.67 ERA in 15 starts overall, he's 3-0 with a 2.41 ERA in his last 3 starts.
Atlanta will counter with lefty Sean Newcomb, who has had a tough go of things. He's just 2-8 with a 4.38 ERA in 16 starts and a miserable 1-6 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.682 WHIP in 10 starts at home. On top of that, he comes in with an ugly 5.52 ERA and 2.045 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
NY has been a good team to back on the highway against the NL East, as they are 40-27 over their last 2 seasons in division road games. Starting a series strong has been a problem for Atlanta, who is just 4-11 in their last 15 series openers. Braves are also just 5-16 in their last 21 home games against the Mets.