JACK JONES
Athletics vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -118
The Philadelphia Phillies just swept the Miami Marlins thanks to an offensive outburst that saw them outscore the Marlins 27-9 in the three games. The Phillies finally have their young prospects producing, and I think they'll continue to do so in Game 1 of this series with the A's.
I look for the A's to come in flat after playing back-to-back series against the Astros and Red Sox. Daniel Mengden is one of the worst starters in baseball, going 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.643 WHIP in three starts this year. Mengden is 2-10 with a 6.59 ERA and 1.616 WHIP in 17 career starts across his two seasons in the big leagues.
Mark Leiter Jr. is a nice young talent for the Phillies who has held his own in eight starts this season for the Phillies. He has been especially effective at home, going 1-2 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.000 WHIP while allowing just 5 earned runs in 16 innings.
The A's are 19-47 in their last 66 road games. Oakland is 1-8 in its last nine vs. NL East opponents. Philadelphia is 4-1 in its last five home meetings with Oakland.
JIM FEIST
Mets vs. Braves
Play: Under 9½
The Mets are weak on offense, #18 in runs scored. Starter Rafael Montero has settled down, allowing 2, 1, 3, 2, 0 and 1 run in sic of his last seven starts. He comes off a 6-1 win over the Reds. and the Under is 20-7 in Montero's last 27 starts overall. Atlanta is below average on offense, 25-10-2 under the total against a team with a losing record. The Under is also 16-6-2 in the Braves last 24 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
JOHN MARTIN
Mets vs. Braves
Play: Over 9½
One of the sneakiest money-makers this baseball season has been New York Mets OVERS. They are 84-51 to the OVER on the season, including 44-24 OVER on the road. And the OVER is 4-0 in their last four games with combined scores of 15, 11, 22 and 20 runs. Now they're up against a hot hitting Braves lineup that has scored 6 or more runs in four of their last five games. I think we see double-digit runs again here between these teams. Rafael Montero is 5-6 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 15 starts for the Mets, while Sean Newcomb is 2-8 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 16 starts for the Braves.
DAVE PRICE
Royals vs. Indians
Play: Indians -1.5
The Key: The Cleveland Indians came back from 2-1 down in the 9th to win 3-2 in extra innings against the Royals last night. They don't want their 22-game winning streak to come to an end tonight, either. They have gone 18-4 against the run line during this streak. Trevor Bauer now gets the ball and is 9-0 with a 2.51 ERA in his last 11 starts while averaging 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Bauer is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 9 lifetime starts vs. Kansas City. Jason Vargas is 1-4 with an 8.34 ERA in his last 5 starts. He has allowed 8 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings in his last 2 starts against the Indians.
Will" Rogers
Oakland vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia -118
The set-up: The Philadelphia Phillies have owned MLB's worst record for much of the season but Thursday's 10-0 victory gave them a three-game sweep of the Marlins (outscored Miami by a 27-9 margin) and allowed them to move to 57-91. Philadelphia has now moved ahead of the 57-91 Giants, as the team continues its 10-game homestand by welcoming American League West cellar-dwelling Oakland A's (64-82) to town for a three-game IL series. The A's come to town as owners of MLB's worst road record (22-49).
The pitching matchup: Daniel Mengden (0-1 & 7.07 ERA) will get the start for Oakland, opposed by Philadelphia's Mark Leiter Jr. (3-5 & 4.84 ERA). Mengden was impressive in his first big-league start since June 3, allowing two earned runs on five hits over six innings of a no-decision versus Houston this past Saturday (A's won 11-4). However, in 14 starts last season, Mengden went 2-9 with a 6.50 ERA. This marks his fourth start of 2017 and along with a 7.07 ERA, he's got a 1.64 WHIP and has allowed opposing batters to hit .316. He's never started against the Phillies and owns a 1-3 mark with a 4.60 ERA in five career starts against National League teams. Leiter has struggled mightily in his last two starts, splitting the decisions despite surrendering 13 runs on 15 hits in 9 1/3 innings. Leiter is 3-4 with a 5.08 ERA his first eight career starts and 2-33 with a 6.11 ERA over the five starts since his last relief outing. This marks his first time vs. Oakland.
The pick: Neither starter should be trusted but led by Rhys Hoskins' impressive power display (he's batting .343 with a .467 on-base percentage and all 18 of his HRs over these past 31 games), the Phillies look like a team having some fun. That sure can't be said about the A's. Phillies win again.
Harry Bondi
ILLINOIS (+16.5) over South Florida
We will take the generous points here against South Florida. Not only have the Bulls looked unimpressive in their first two games, going 0-2 ATS and actually trailing Stony Brook 10-7 at halftime, but the Hurricane Irma wrecked havoc for everyone involved with this team over the last seven days and that has to be a huge distraction. Illinois, meanwhile, comes in feeling good about itself with a 2-0 record. Too much pedigree here for an AAC team to be laying over two TDs to a Big 10 team, especially with the situational advantages for the Illini.
Jack Brayman
My free play for tonight is a big baseball underdog, as I like the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. And in this game I want you listing the scheduled starting pitchers: Chris Sale and Matt Andriese.
I know I'm taking a big shot here, going against Sale, who is facing the Rays for the sixth time this season, but I think there is some revenge to be had. Sale has fared well against Tampa Bay, going 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA. The last time he beat them he also outpitched Andriese.
In his career at Tropicana Field, Sale is just 3-3, and I think the Rays could have his number this time around.
Meanwhile, Andriese will be making his third start in his return off the disabled list. His previous start, against these Red Sox, saw him allow eight runs (six earned) on seven hits in a mere 1.2 innings.
Tonight Im taking the big dog in revenge.
4* RAYS
Chris Jordan
Nailed the Philadelphia Phillies the last two nights - for my 400♦ winner on Wednesday and my free pick last night - and tonight I'm playing them against the Oakland Athletics as my complimentary release.
It's this time of the season teams like Philadelphia become value plays, because they have nothing to lose, and they just go out and have fun. They're not thinking about the playoffs, and they just want to end the season winning.
So even though the Phils have one of the worst records in baseball, they've won three in a row after last night's 10-0 win over the Miami Marlins.
Oakland, which is in the cellar of the American League West, is a bleak 22-49 on the road after last night's 6-2 loss to the Boston Red Sox. This is the second leg of this road trip, and the fourth road game in as many days.
The A's just enjoyed a five-gaame win streak, but they're also mired in a 6-10 slide since Aug. 28.
I like Philadelphia tonight, minus the cheap number.
4* PHILLIES
SPORTS WAGERS
Saskatchewan -4 over HAMILTON
We’re back in the CFL business tonight because we see an opportunity that we’re not about to miss. Just because we haven’t been posting CFL plays the past couple of weeks doesn’t mean we’re not paying attention. We are. The Tiger-Cats are now 2-0 under new head coach June Jones, which is pretty on paper but no game has even been played on paper before and we know better. Hamilton was gifted its first win on Labour Day after a three-hour lighting delay in front of the 25 fans that bothered to stick around through the storm. What looked like a fumble by quarterback Jason Masoli would have handed the ‘Cats another loss but it was ruled an incomplete pass. Jones then took a shot and threw the flag after an incomplete pass in the end zone and interference was called on the defense. Just like that the Tigercats were in the end zone. It was a horrible call and a desperate attempt by the new coach that worked out. It was a bizarre win in a game that Hamilton was outgained in by 128 yards.
Last week, Hamilton literally hung on to beat Ottawa 26-22. The ‘Cats were outscored in the second half by a count of 15-3 and the reason they won is because they didn’t turn the ball over once. Incidentally, last week, Ottawa’s #1 QB, Trevor Harris was injured and forced to leave in favor of Drew Tate. In summarizing, Hamilton’s two lucky victories since replacing Ken Austin came against Toronto and Ottawa, two East teams in what could be summarized as the worst East Division in the history of the CFL. Put no weight in Hamilton’s two victories. Put lots of weight on the ‘Cats being outgained by 258, 201, 134, 161, 221 and 118 yards in six of its last seven games. The last time the ‘Cats played Saskatchewan back in early July, they were outgained by 258 yards. Now the Roughriders are a much improved team while the Tiger-Cats are not. QB Jason Masoli is not an upgrade over Zach Collaros and is in fact a big downgrade. The Tiger-Cats have not turned a corner. They are the CFL’s worst team by far but two wins have changed the market mindset on them.
Saskatchewan is a tough, physical team that has swag again for the first time in over two years. Only twice this entire season have they been noticeably outplayed and those losses occurred to B.C. and Calgary. For the most part, the Roughies have been racking up big yardage and playing solid defense. They are also coming off back-to-back games against a very difficult Winnipeg team in which they outgained Winnipeg both games but split the home and home series. The only way Saskatchewan loses here is if they are flat after two big games versus Winnipeg. The good news is that they lost the last one and teams’ are usually flat after a win, not a loss. We have not seen the Roughriders appear flat too often this year, instead, we have seen an intensely focused team that is on a mission to not only make some noise but also to get back the great respect they had for years. If that team shows up here, this one won’t be close and that’s what we’re betting on.
SPORTS WAGERS
Saskatchewan -4 over HAMILTON
We’re back in the CFL business tonight because we see an opportunity that we’re not about to miss. Just because we haven’t been posting CFL plays the past couple of weeks doesn’t mean we’re not paying attention. We are. The Tiger-Cats are now 2-0 under new head coach June Jones, which is pretty on paper but no game has even been played on paper before and we know better. Hamilton was gifted its first win on Labour Day after a three-hour lighting delay in front of the 25 fans that bothered to stick around through the storm. What looked like a fumble by quarterback Jason Masoli would have handed the ‘Cats another loss but it was ruled an incomplete pass. Jones then took a shot and threw the flag after an incomplete pass in the end zone and interference was called on the defense. Just like that the Tigercats were in the end zone. It was a horrible call and a desperate attempt by the new coach that worked out. It was a bizarre win in a game that Hamilton was outgained in by 128 yards.
Last week, Hamilton literally hung on to beat Ottawa 26-22. The ‘Cats were outscored in the second half by a count of 15-3 and the reason they won is because they didn’t turn the ball over once. Incidentally, last week, Ottawa’s #1 QB, Trevor Harris was injured and forced to leave in favor of Drew Tate. In summarizing, Hamilton’s two lucky victories since replacing Ken Austin came against Toronto and Ottawa, two East teams in what could be summarized as the worst East Division in the history of the CFL. Put no weight in Hamilton’s two victories. Put lots of weight on the ‘Cats being outgained by 258, 201, 134, 161, 221 and 118 yards in six of its last seven games. The last time the ‘Cats played Saskatchewan back in early July, they were outgained by 258 yards. Now the Roughriders are a much improved team while the Tiger-Cats are not. QB Jason Masoli is not an upgrade over Zach Collaros and is in fact a big downgrade. The Tiger-Cats have not turned a corner. They are the CFL’s worst team by far but two wins have changed the market mindset on them.
Saskatchewan is a tough, physical team that has swag again for the first time in over two years. Only twice this entire season have they been noticeably outplayed and those losses occurred to B.C. and Calgary. For the most part, the Roughies have been racking up big yardage and playing solid defense. They are also coming off back-to-back games against a very difficult Winnipeg team in which they outgained Winnipeg both games but split the home and home series. The only way Saskatchewan loses here is if they are flat after two big games versus Winnipeg. The good news is that they lost the last one and teams’ are usually flat after a win, not a loss. We have not seen the Roughriders appear flat too often this year, instead, we have seen an intensely focused team that is on a mission to not only make some noise but also to get back the great respect they had for years. If that team shows up here, this one won’t be close and that’s what we’re betting on.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego -1½ +260 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
25-39 + 30.95 units
Miami -1½ +187 over MILWAUKEE
The Marlins just got eaten up in Philadelphia by scores of 9-8, 8-1, and 10-0 last night. That now runs their losing streak to five, not to mention that they’ve lost 10 of their last 11 games. Miami’s stock has hit rock bottom, which makes us instant buyers in this very winnable game. Jose Urena has upgraded his control by doing a better job of getting ahead in the count and pounding the zone. He has thrown his best pitch more often (Slider: 13% swing and miss; usage 2016/2017: 14%/27%). This is an under the radar pitcher with raw stuff, including a 96 mph fastball and decent change-up (12% swing and miss), that just keeps getting better. Urena has an elite 61% groundball rate over his last 10 starts too. Urena’s ERA over his last five starts is 2.91 with an xERA of 4.31. No doubt he still has work to do but he’s trending the right way to be sure and he gives the Marlins their best chance of winning among the rest of the starters. That said, Urena is not our target.
What are relief pitchers? Relief pitchers are former starters that usually have two pitches in their arsenal with only one pitch considered to be plus. Pitchers with three pitches (or more) usually end up as starters. No pitcher has ever started out their career wanting to pitch in relief. The goal of every pitcher on the planet is to start. A reliever is a former starter that could not crack the rotation because he just wasn’t good enough. Even Cleveland’s Andrew Miller was a starter for years before they gave up on him in that role and put him in the ‘pen. Very few pitchers in the history of this game have made a successful transition from relief to starting. Jeremy Jeffress will attempt that here for the Crew.
Jeffress has appeared in 53 games this year, all in relief. He has appeared in 263 games in his MLB career, all in relief. The most innings he’s pitched this season in any one outing is 2.1 innings. Mostly, Jeffress has been asked to come in and get three unimportant outs this year when the game is not really on the line. As a member of both the Rangers and Brewers (he was traded at the deadline), Jeffress’ team has lost 15 of the past 20 games he has appeared in. Again, he’s been asked to pitch in low pressure situations for the most part and rarely if ever in the eighth or ninth inning with the game on the line. Last year, he lost his closer role in July. Aside from that, his numbers aren’t even that good. He has walked 30 batters over 57 frames in 53 appearances this season. His first-pitch strike rate is 47% and now he’s going to come in with a different mindset than he’s ever had at this level and chances are very strong that it doesn’t end well for this career reliever with poor control.
Brandon Shively
Toronto vs. Minnesota
Pick: Toronto -113
The Toronto Blue Jays will face Bartolo Colon here on Friday and have value.
The Blue Jays have just simply dominated the Twins head to head wise.
Toronto has gone 49-19 over the past 68 meetings head to head. In Minnesota they've won 22 of the past 31.
Bartolo Colon is certainly a vulnerable pitcher. He was rocked by the Royals for 6 runs last time out and will have a lot of traffic on the bases here.
Bob Balfe
A’s / Phillies Over 10
Both starting pitchers have been awful, both bullpens have struggled, both offenses have been red hot and this park caters to homerun hitting. Tonight the weather will be hot and humid which makes perfect conditions for a lot of runs. Both teams will pad their offensive stats tonight as they get close to their offseason.
OC Dooley
Arizona / UTEP Over 58.5
This is one of those games where something has to give as Arizona amazingly is on an 0-7 ATS skid in "road" setups like tonight, while Texas-El Paso is 0-for-5 recently (against the spread) when taking the field in the month of September so I feel both sides will "let it all hang out" so to speak including Arizona (off a 19-16 home loss with a high total of 64-and-a-half). Amazingly Texas-El Paso is 2-0 "under" even though the defense permitted 56 opening week (at Oklahoma versus an elite quarterback) and 31 points last week (versus "angry" Rice who had lost their opener 62-7 in Australia). There is major INJURY news as Texas-El Paso will go with RESERVE quarterback Zack Greenlee who PASSED for near 700 yards in limited action a year ago. The Miners will go against an Arizona defense WITHOUT injured starters at both linebacker and safety. Here is a "30-10" SYSTEM (75-percent the past five years) which takes teams like Texas-El Paso (solid rush squad averaging at least 4.75 yards per carry the prior campaign) OVER the total immediately following a contest where the defense "allowed" the opposition at least 5.5 yards per rush attempt