Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, September 16th, 2016

Mike Rose

Rice +30.5

On paper, the Bears look as if they’re rolling having compiled one-sided 55-7 and 40-13 wins against Northwestern State and SMU respectively. However, they failed to cover each going off the board as 50 point chalk opening week and lofty 34.5 point favorites against the Mustangs.

The defense has been pretty decent in allowing just 241.5 total yards per game, but it’s not like they’ve faced anything that awaits down the Big 12 road. The rushing defense has left a bit to be desired in allowing 111.5 yards per game (No. 42), but that’s just nit-picking. Seth Russell has done an excellent job navigating the offense a year removed from going down to a season-ending injury. However, Baylor has now turned it over four times and put the pigskin on the ground three other times. This club simply isn’t as good as in years past to get away with being that careless with the pigskin.

Big 12 play opens up next week for the Bears, so it’s highly possible Jim Grobe has a tough time getting his kids up for this tilt under the Friday night lights with an Owls squad it simply annihilated a short season ago. Seth Russell threw for 277 yards and six touchdowns, and the defense allowed less than 250 total yards. It was a beat down of epic proportions that could have the Bears extremely disinterested.

There’s talent on the Rice offense with Tyler Stehling a capable field general and Darik Dillard one of the program’s best all-time running backs. Their pride and confidence has been smashed the first couple weeks of the season, but there’s still plenty of time to make hay within Conference USA.

Before the season started, Rice had covered its previous seven non-conference tilts at a 6-0-1 clip versus the closing betting odds. Though Baylor stands a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times it opposed a CUSA rival and covered each of the last five against the Owls, I simply have no desire whatsoever to lay this kind of chalk with a team that isn’t firing on all cylinders and emits some warning signs. This is the Owls home opener and I can’t help but think they’ll put their best foot forward and not get thoroughly embarrassed.

Cal Sports

Rice +31

Many forget that Baylor only won a total of 15 games form 2006-2009 which included back-to-back 4-8 seasons the first 2 years under Art Briles. With RG III at QB the offense was propelled to a new level and the wins and notoriety followed. Briles was a head coach who enjoyed running up the score and padding the team’s stats and the Bears did so often beating up on lesser foes.

Many think that since Baylor won their first two games by a combined score of 95-20 that same philosophy hold true, but I disagree. Under new HC Jim Grobe the Bears first two games were far from impressive as they failed to cover as a 50-pt favorite versus Northwestern St and failed last week as well as they were a 32.5-point favorite to SMU and only finished with a 103-yard edge. Now they travel to Rice and while it’s not an intimidating venue playing on the road is always more difficult than at home. Last season a much better Baylor team (had 18 starters back), with a head coach who wanted to run up the score, was laying 33 points at home to a Rice teams that only returned 9 starters. This year the line is almost identical yet Rice is at home with 16 starters back while Baylor players their first road game of the year and only returns 9 starters as well as only having 70 scholarship players after all the transfers from this spring.

While I must admit that I had Rice as a Best Bet last week their loss to Army is part of the reason this line is so deflated. Remember if there is value to a play – use it! Do not be afraid to go back to a team you recently lost with and on the flip-side do not use a team just because you won with them. When is the last time any team went 12-0 ATS or 0-12 ATS in season? There is value with Rice and I am backing them this week.

Rob Vinciletti

Tigers vs. Indians
Play:Indians -159

Cleveland has won 18 of 23 on Fridays and have their ace C. Kluber on the mound. Kluber has been solid allowing just 1 run in 2 starts spanning 17 innings against Detroit. Detroit counters with Fullmer and he has lost his last 3 starts. Cleveland applies to a solid database system that plays on home favorites off a road loss and scored 2 or less runs vs an opponent like Detroit that scored 2 or less runs in a home loss. These tams win over 85% long term. Look for Tribe to take the opener.

Jim Feist

Astros at Mariners
Pick: Under

This is a good park for pitchers, Safeco Field, and Houston has Collin McHugh throwing well, with the team winning his last five starts. McHugh (10-10) gave up an earned run on two hits and three walks over five innings in Saturday's 2-1 victory over the Cubs. He struck out six. The Under is 7-2-1 in McHugh's last 10 starts with 5 days of rest. Seattle is on a roll defensively and with pitching. Ace Felix Hernandez (3.58 ERA) goes here and fired six scoreless innings in Saturday's 14-3 blowout of the A's, giving up only six hits and a walk. The under is 20-8-2 in his last 30 starts with 5 days of rest.

David Banks

Baylor -31

Baylor is well, Baylor. Even without former head coach Art Briles, the Bears are 2-0 and one of the more prolific offenses in the country. New head coach Jim Grobe has led Baylor to consecutive wins over FCS Northwestern State and SMU. In the process, the Bears have scored 95 points and averaged 517 yards of total offense. They will likely run to 3-0 when they travel to Houston on Friday night to take on Rice.

The Owls are off to one of their worst starts in recent memory. Not known for their defense, Rice has surrendered 38.5 points per game in their two losses and lost to an Army team, 31-14, last week that finished last season just 2-10. Head coach David Bailiff and the Owls like to be physical and run the football. The problem is that they haven’t had any success in their first two games on the ground. New starting quarterback Tyler Stehling has a QB rating of just 43.6.

While Rice has its struggles, the Bears just keep on forging ahead. Senior quarterback Seth Russell has performed admirably after missing the second half of last season with a neck injury. Russell is 40-of-67 for 424 yards and six touchdowns thus far this season. Running back Shock Linwood has carried the ball 27 times for 156 yards and wide receiver K.D. Cannon leads Baylor with 15 receptions for 139 yards and two touchdowns. After facing the Owls on Friday, Baylor gets into Big 12 play when it hosts Oklahoma State next week.

SPORTS WAGERS

World Cup of Hockey

North America +1000 to win World Cup

Tournament starts September 17th. This World Cup of Hockey has been called a number of things by many pundits. “It's a cash grab” or “it means nothing compared to the Olympics” have been common criticisms but none of that matters to us. What we have here is a great opportunity to watch some world class hockey and perhaps cash in on some pretty sweet numbers. Team Canada is rightfully favored but there is no value on them whatsoever at -115. They are also not a lock to win it. Sure, the Canadians could win this thing but questions around Carey Price have us concerned about their chances in a short tournament format such as this.

This eight team tournament features the best players in the world and it's formatted to include everyone. What we have here is an under 23 team that is made up of the best young North American born players. That team features perhaps the greatest collection of youngsters ever assembled to play on the same team. Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Nathan McKinnon, Auston Matthews, Johnny Gaudreau and so many more. Defensively, the North Americans are as solid as any team in the tournament with Aaron Ekblad, Seth Jones, Shayne Gostisbehere, Colton Parayko, Ryan Murray, Morgan Reilly and Jacob Trouba. That's a formidable seven that can play against any group of players in the world and do well. In net, we have Stanley Cup champion Matt Murray and Anaheim's John Gibson with Connor Hellebuyck in the third spot. Murray has proven he can win big games and this tournament is another spot for him to showcase those talents. This group of extremely talented kids are being offered up at a ridiculous price and should they meet Canada or USA in the final, we have a great chance to hedge. At 10-1, this is a no-brainer.

USA +649 to win World Cup

Team USA has played the bridesmaid to Canada so many times over the years in International competition. Since the NHL's return to the Olympics, Canada has cashed in on three gold medals, two of which came with wins in 2002 and 2010 over the Americans. Many of these USA players were on both tthe 2010 and 2014 Olympic teams and while they came up short, this is a chance for them to at least swing back on their neighbors to the north. Team USA highlights some of the best talent in the game with Patrick Kane, Joe Pavelski, Max Pacioretty, Zach Parise, Brandon Dubinsky, T.J. Oshie, Zach Parise and the pesky Ryan Kesler among others. On defense the Americans are solidly led by Ryan Suter, Ryan McDonagh, John Carlson, and the addition of Dustin Byfuglien could add an element the Americans haven't had before. Big “Buff” creates matchup problems all over the ice and after 11-years in the league, this is his first chance to wear the Red, White and Blue. The USA brings a pair of studs between the pipes with Jonathan Quick and Corey Schneider, who just might be the best goalie in the world. At odds of 6-1, Team USA absolutely has a chance to win it. From our standpoint, we see this as a three-horse race between Canada, Team USA and North America. If one of our two squads makes it the final, we will not lose money because of the hedge opportunity presented. This is another solid wagering opportunity with great profit potential.

Dr Bob

Baylor (-31) 51 RICE 16

Baylor has not looked that good offensively so far this season, as their 47.5 points per game masked the fact that the Bears have averaged a modest 5.9 yards per play against two teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average offensive team. The Bears have run a lot of plays (87.5 per game) and scoring a lot of points will not be a challenge against a perennially bad Rice defense that’s allowed 7.6 yppl to Western Kentucky and Army.

The Baylor defense, meanwhile, has played better than expected so far and Rice is a below average offensive team again this season. My ratings favor the Bears by 32 points, so the line is fair, but huge favorites that under perform in their first two games tend to cover the spread in game 3 and Baylor applies to a 43-16 ATS situation that is based on that premise.

Wunderdog

Minnesota @ Indiana
Pick: Indiana +3.5

The road team is favored, but this is a tough situational spot for top-seeded Minnesota. It's their fourth straight road game and they looked road weary in the last contest, losing 98-97 in overtime at Chicago as five-point favorites. The Lynx have already locked-up home-court advantage throughout the postseason and are 3-7 ATS against the Eastern Conference. Indiana is home and playing well down the stretch, winning four of six despite playing four of the last five on the road. Now they come home for their final two games of the regular season on a 9-5 straight-up run. That included four wins as a dog, plus one as pick 'em. The Indiana Fever still have a shot at earning home-court in the first round, one-half game behind the Atlanta Dream and a full game behind fourth-place Chicago. And the Fever are a sizzling 33-14-4 ATS against a team with a winning straight-up record. Take Indiana.

SPORTS WAGERS

Liverpool +131 over CHELSEA

We were burned by Liverpool last week, as they shredded the defending champs, 4-1. This team is finally healthy on all fronts, and we are all about to see what type of team they are when pitted against some of the top talent in Europe. This week, Liverpool will enter as a large dog to a team that hasn't been tested, playing the league's easiest schedule thus far.

In its first four games, Chelsea has played Burnley at home, at Watford, at Swansea, and opened the season to West Ham. They looked very impressive in a game against Burnley by winning 3-1, however, it put itself in poor situations in its other three matches, requiring late surges and some luck to get results in its opener and comeback win at Watford. The result of this start sees the Blues sitting in second in the EPL with their stock sky high. Following this match, Chelsea will travel to Leicester City to play the League Cup tie of the round, and then have a huge match next weekend at Arsenal. Chelsea will have gone from playing a very soft schedule, to playing three very legitimate opponents, including two on the road next week. We don't know how good Chelsea is just yet, and they are being given some serious credit without a big statement win on their record as of yet. Another reason for these odds can be attributed to their only common opponent thus far, and that was Burnley. While Chelsea put their foot down, and throttled Burnley 3-0, Liverpool were dealt a 2-0 loss to the same team. This was the most unjust result of the season thus far, as Liverpool just couldn't buy a goal, dominating possession 81%-19%, and outshooting Burnley 26-3.

Liverpool has put together one of the best attacking performances overall this season, and they will look to continue their lethal presence by starting three superstars on their front line. Between Sturridge, Firmino, and Mane, Liverpool boasts a very underrated trio that would not only rival but surpass many of Europe's top team's attacking line. With Phil Coutinho, Adam Lallana and Gerginio Wijnaldum all contributing in the middle of the field, Liverpool is poised to finish in the top two or three in goals scored in the Premier League this season.

This situation is a very favorable road spot for Liverpool, as they have a cupcake match with Derby County mid-week followed by a home match vs. newcomers Hull next weekend. Besides this being the toughest test for Chelsea thus far this season, it also has a little bit of a look ahead spot scenario here, travelling to their new midfield stars former home in Leicester, and then continuing their trip to the Emirates Stadium for a match vs. the Gunners. Obviously playing a similarly large club in Liverpool, wouldn't usually warrant a look ahead, but we haven't seen Chelsea have a true ' wake up moment' this season, and they are poised for one here. There should be plenty of offense in this match, and we like Liverpool to score at least two, thus the chances of them winning are far greater than these odds suggest. Draw no bet.

Jimmy Boyd

Utah State -9

After taking a close look into this matchup, I like the value here with Utah State laying less than double-digits. Arkansas State’s offense hasn’t been able to get anything going in their first two games. Only scoring 14 points against Auburn is nothing to read into, but the 10-point effort at home in their opener against Toledo is. Keep in mind the Rockets only returned 4 starters on defense and were transitioning to a new scheme with a head coaching change in the offseason.

Arkansas State did average 40.0 ppg and 438 ypg last year, but they lost a lot. They had to replace their starting quarterback, top rusher and top receiver. I just don’t trust them figuring things out on the road in a short week of preparation.

With the passing game not working, the Red Wolves have primarily focused on the ground game. That figures to a problem against the Aggies. While Utah State allowed 178 rushing yards to USC, the Trojans needed 44 carries to get to that mark. That’s just slightly more than 4.0 yards/carry, which isn’t bad given the talent gap. Note that in the 3 years under head coach Matt Rhule, Utah State has not allowed more than 3.6 yards/carry on the season.

Utah State’s offense didn’t look great against USC, but that was cause they couldn’t run the ball. They aren't going to have that same problem against the Red Wolves. Arkansas State’s defense hasn’t been good against either the run or the pass. Forget the numbers against Auburn (allowed 706 yards, 462 rushing). They allowed 185 on the ground and 371 though the air against Toledo.

The last big key here is that this is a weekday home game and both teams on short rest. This is almost always a big advantage for the home team. Not to mention the Aggies are playing with revenge from their overtime loss at Arkansas State in 2014. On top of that, the home team has won 6 straight in the series.

We also see that the Aggies are 16-5 in their last 21 after allowing more than 40 points and 15-5-1 in their last 21 when playing on Friday. Red Wolves are 0-4 ATS last 4 in non-conference and 1-4 ATS after giving up 200 or more rushing yards.

Brandon Lee

Rays -103

Tampa Bay is worth a look here on the road against the Orioles Friday. The Rays appear to be enjoying playing spoiler. After taking 2 of 3 in Toronto, Tampa took last night's series opener over Baltimore 7-6. They have won 3 straight overall and a big part of this run is their offense, which has scored 21 runs on 32 hits. They figure to have a good chance of keeping that going, as Orioles' starter Ubaldo Jimenez has a 5.74 ERA and 1.759 WHIP in 11 home starts. Rays counter here with Chris Archer, who is finally starting to pitch like the Cy Young candidate everyone was expecting to see from the start of this season. Archer has a 3.54 ERA and sensational 0.836 WHIP over his last 3 starts. It's also worth noting he's gone 5 straight starts allowing 3 runs or less and the last 4 outings have come against some good teams in the Red Sox, Astros, Blue Jays and Yankees.

Ray Monohan

Arizona State vs. Texas-San Antonio
Play: Texas San Antonio +21

UTSA welcomes in Arizona State on Friday night and the home team plus 3 touchdowns holds some value here.

Arizona State has shown they have plenty of offensive explosion, but their defense just isn't good.

UTSA is a run first offense, which means they'll slow the pace down here and keep that ASU offense off the field. With how many gaps there are in the ASU defense this season, the roadrunners should find plenty of gaps in the line and be able to get a push up front.

The longer UTSA can hang around in the first half, the more pressure that gets put on the Sun Devils. After a big win last week, this could be a solid let down spot for them, on the road against a weaker opponent.

Some trends to note. Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Look for the Roadrunners to keep this one close throughout, as they will control the tempo of this game with their rushing attack.

Jack Jones

Baltimore Orioles -101

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Baltimore Orioles at nearly even money at home. The Orioles are right in the thick of the AL wild card and AL East races and need every game. The same cannot be said for the Rays, who are 63-83 on the season and have the second-worst record in the American League.

Ubaldo Jimenez hasn't had his best season overall, but he has pitched better when these games have mattered the most down the stretch. He is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in his last three starts. Jimenez loves facing the Rays, going 5-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.136 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Chris Archer has certainly been a huge disappointment for the Rays this season as he's 8-18 with a 4.05 ERA in 30 starts, including 5-9 with a 5.63 ERA in 15 road starts. Archer is 3-5 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Orioles as well. He has given up 10 runs and 6 homers in 17 innings spanning three starts against Baltimore this season.

Jimenez is 8-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last two seasons. The Orioles are 23-5 in Jimenez's last 28 home starts. The Rays are 2-14 in Archer's 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record this season. Tampa Bay is 0-8 in Archer's last eight starts vs. division opponents.

Dave Price

San Francisco Giants -111

The San Francisco Giants got back on track yesterday with a 6-2 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals behind a 5-hit, complete game from Johnny Cueto. That helped relieve their bullpen, which will be huge going forward in this series. I like the price we are getting on the Giants at home here today. Matt Moore has pitched well at home this season, going 6-5 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 15 starts. I look for rookie Luke Weaver to struggle for the Cardinals in this tough spot on the road. He's 0-2 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.474 WHIP in 4 road starts this year. The Cardinals are 7-15 in their last 22 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.