Brandon Shively
Baylor vs. Rice
Play: Over 65
The Rice defense has looked terrible through the first two games of the season. While I think their defense is better than what they have shown, I also think that Baylor’s balanced attack will put up their expected team total of 48 points. The Baylor Bears have averaged around 600 yards of total offense the last 5 years. They still have the key components (QB, RB, WR--KD Cannon). After sleepwalking through the 1st half against SMU last week (6-6 tie), the Bears woke up in the 2nd half to win the game 40-13. Baylor has ran for 275 in each of their first two games. This is an offense that is averaging 103 plays per game, ranked #2 in the nation. Rice likes to go up-tempo also at time when they can which makes this game GREAT for the OVER.
The Baylor defense is very young up front as they return zero defensive linemen from 2015 which I like for the over as ,1) Rice should form some kind of running game, and 2) QB Stehling should not be pressured as much in the pocket. It’s up to the Rice offensive line and HC Bailiff has been highly critical of. The Owls O-Line coach has been there for 8 years so I look for improvement.
The question I needed to answer was, “Can Rice score 21 or more points in this game”? I strongly feel they do it on their home field. I mentioned the Baylor defense being very young up front. Now, their senior starting cornerback is expected to miss this game, leaving them with a rFR and a sophomore starting at corner and my answer to that question is now, “YES”!
Rice will embrace the role of playing this game at home as the previous two meetings were played at Baylor. HC Bailiff is a veteran coach. He is not going to let his team lay down. In 2014, Rice opened the season 0-2 (played back to back road games). The following week was their first home game and it was a 45-42 game with over 1000 yards of offense.The last two meetings between Baylor and Rice have both went OVER with final point totals hitting 87 points both times and the totals were 68.5 and 74. The total tonight is lower than both of those and that brings immediate value to the table.
ASA
Baylor vs. Rice
Play: Over 65
Tonight we play OVER in the Baylor versus Rice game on ESPN. We typically don’t play OVER on numbers this high but let’s face it, Baylor could put up 65 themselves in this game. Last year they beat this same Rice team 70-17 with the Bears racking up nearly 800 total yards of offense. Rice gave up 46 points in the opener against Western Kentucky then allowed 31 to Army last week. Now in a short turn around, after facing the triple option, they have to prepare for one of the best offenses in the country. Don’t expect Baylor to call off the dogs here either as they are still working out the kinks offensively (had just 6 points at half last week before reeling off 34 in the second half) and want to be finely tuned prior to facing Okie State next week. Last season prior to getting hurt, Bears starting QB Seth Russell led Baylor to 56, 66, 70, 63, 66, 62 and 45 points in their first 7 games. He’s back this season and will have a monster game against this Owls D.
Vegas Butcher
Tampa Bay Rays -105
Archer, the #20th ranked pitcher with an e-ERA of 3.5 (2.8 in the last 30-days) going up against Jimenez, my 148th ranked starter who has an e-ERA of 4.8 (4.6 the last 30-days). Huge pitching mismatch and I like the way Tampa is swinging the bats lately as well.
Brad Wilton
My Friday night comp play is the Giants to "hold serve" one more time at home against the Cardinals in a key meeting in the N.L. Wild Card standings.
The Giants captured the opener of this long 4 game set, 6-2 last night, and tonight they definitely have the "experience" edge on the hill with Matt Moore opposing youngster Luke Weaver.
The Cards have now posted 3 runs or fewer in 7 of their past 14 games, which bodes well for Moore to tame their bats.
Moore just fanned 11 Diamondbacks in a win his last time out to make it 3 of his last 4 starts earning the "W".
Weaver has done a stand-up job in the St. Louis rotation, but I don't like the fact this is just his 7th start of his career. This is also obviously his biggest start of his young career.
I will side with the Giants at home in this critical game.
1* SAN FRANCISCO
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Over at Fenway Park between the Yankees and the Red Sox.
Last night looked like it was going to hold Under the total, but the New York bullpen imploded and surrendered 5 runs in a game that wound up Over the posted price.
With no Andrew Miller or Aroldis Chapman, it was bound to happen sooner or later, and the fact it happened last night really crippled the Yanks chances at making the postseason.
Louis Cessa owns a 4.76 ERA over his last 3 starts, and 2 of those 3 starts have played Over the total.
Clay Buchholz is back in the rotation tonight for a start, but he too owns an ERA in the mid 4's, and has seen 2 of his last 3 starts play Over the total.
With the Yanks pen now a little strapped after last night's debacle, look for things to be a little easier at the plate for the Boston bats in this Friday night affair.
The Over is 7-3-1 the last 11 games played at Fenway Park for Boston, so back the Over once again tonight.
2* N.Y. YANKEES-BOSTON OVER
SPORTS WAGERS
RICE +32 over Baylor
We are not here to sell you Rice as much as we are to expose the value in taking back a ludicrous amount of points with the Owls while they play host to cross-state foe Baylor. Rice has been terrible; there is no doubt about that one. The Owls have gotten off to a morbid 0-2 start, failing to cover in either of their two outings on the road. Rice was bullied by both Western Kentucky and Army and now they seem poised to be a snack for Baylor to munch on when this high-powered offense comes to town for an out-of-conference bout.
Nevertheless, Baylor has yet to cover this year either. Despite getting off to a scorching 2-0 start, the Bears have been subject to spotting some astronomical points. Look no further than Northwestern State where the Bears were giving away 50 to points to their Week One warm-up opponent. A junk time touchdown prevented the Bears from covering. Baylor had far more trouble with SMU last Saturday. The Mustangs hung around with Baylor late into the third quarter before the Bears’ attack simply overwhelmed them. Even then, the Bears could not cover.
Baylor met Rice last year in Waco and the Bears put on a clinic, routing the Owls 70-17. Jim Grobe and company know they can have their way with this Houston-based outfit and they will likely approach this contest as yet another tune-up before a pivotal Big 12 opener against Oklahoma State next Saturday. Remember, Baylor was playing for Art Brile last year when they ran up the score and we trust Grobe will be very careful in an effort to not tip off Oklahoma State as to what they’re capable of. Expect Grobe to call off the dogs once this one is well under control. Aside from that, Rice is more than capable of generating a few lscores to keep this one within range. Baylor won by 53 last year and now they’re asked to give away just half that amount this year. Situations like this often set up investors for a loss, as the price almost seems too good to be true. In all likelihood, it most certainly is.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Yankees +143 over BOSTON
The thinking is that a loss like last night’s by the Yanks is not easy to bounce back from but we see it another way and it stems from some observations that we have made this year that we will apply repeatedly next year.
Boston had an improbable rally last night in the ninth inning to snatch a victory from the hands of defeat. Boston was down 5-2 and rallied with two outs to win 7-5. We’ve all seen the bedlam caused by a walk-off hit or walk off home run. Every player comes running on the field and they’re jumping up and down for several minutes while the hero is also being chased by a lemon pie. The fans are going nuts too but it does not end there. There are locker room celebrations and good feelings well into the night. We have been tracking this all year and noticed that teams that walk off at home (they can’t walk off on the road) have a huge propensity for a letdown the following night while the other team is all steamed up. We’re going to put that to the test here and perhaps a few more times too. Expect to see this angle played frequently next year.
Aside from that, Clay Buchholz priced in this range is insane when you consider that Buchholz has an awful BB/K split of 49/80 in 120 innings to go along with a WHIP of 1.40 and a xERA of 5.31.
Minnesota +152 over N.Y. METS
It’s kind of odd to see an interleague game this late in September but it is what it is and the Twinkies are enjoying the role of the spoiler. The Twins just took two of four from Detroit. They also have recent wins over K.C. and Cleveland to run their record to 4-4 over their past eight games. They are an extremely dangerous bunch because they are so capable of scoring runs and that figures to come into play here against Bartolo Colon. Maybe Colon goes out and throws another decent game but we would not pay this price to find out. Colon’s act of defying logic is one that is always prone to blowing up. The outstanding control angle holds no weight either (see Josh Tomlin). Colon continues to utilize a pitch-to-contact approach and elite control to get the most out of what he has left in the tank. However, with an 87.8 mph fastball that he throws 88% of the time and a puny swing and miss rate of 5%, he has very little margin for error. Colon has taken luck to an entirely new level. He shrugs off age, girth and poor skills but nobody is impervious to natural forces forever, right? Right?? RIGHT!!!???? Damn straight we’ll bite.
Jose Berrios has the talent to thrive at this level but he’s still a work in progress with shaky control. What he lacks in size (6’0” 185 pounds), he makes up for in athleticism and above average velocity. His fastball sits between 91-96 mph and tops out at 97. His other pitches consist of a very good breaking ball and above average change-up. He keeps hitters off-balance with his deceptive change-up which plays up due to his ability to repeat his athletic delivery and consistent arm slot. Berrios sequences his offerings very well and misses many bats as a result. His control has continued to improve through the years and his command is advanced for his age but he just has not seemed comfortable at this level yet. Indeed he is a risk but with 42 K’s in 45 innings and his upside, he’s a great option here taking back a big price against such a weak starter like Bartolo Colon.
Bob Balfe
Marlins -120
The Marlins can make things interesting if they can sweep the Phillies this weekend. Miami is 4 games back in the wild card standings and couldn’t dream up better teams to play in the likes of the Phillies and Braves heading down the stretch. This is a Miami team that has hit left handed starters very well this season and simply put need to win in these spots. I would not be shocked to see this wildcard slot to come down to the final day of the season.
Harry Bondi
TEXAS SAN ANTONIO (+19.5) over Arizona State
Arizona State simply can not be trusted to lay this kind of lumber on the road. First off, the Sun Devils are fresh off a thrilling, back-and-forth 68-55 OT win over Texas Tech on Saturday night that took a lot out of them both emotionally and physically. Secondly, you can’t lay nearly three TDs with a team that has allowed 577 rushing yards on defense in the first two games of the season. Finally, the Roadrunners have been pesky underdogs in non-conference games, covering 11 of 17 in this role. Take the generous points!